Modelling and Mapping Agricultural Output Values Using Farm Specific Details and Environmental Databases

Ongoing concerns regarding the economic losses associated with the CAP and the negative environmental impacts of present land use have led to calls for land use change and consequent efforts to identify areas which are, from both a financial and social perspective, most appropriate for such conversion. This paper develops and applies an output value modelling methodology in which site-specific biophysical factors are combined with farm level data in order to predict input usage and, subsequently, farm profit. The spatial analytic capabilities of a geographical information system (GIS) are used to combine the variety of data employed to permit analysis of a large study area (the entirety of Wales) and yield models of both the market and shadow value of output from the two principal agricultural sectors of the area: dairying and sheep farming. The GIS is then used to produce readily interpretable maps of these values across the study area. The resulting maps are highly compatible both with value maps of alternative land uses given in the recent literature and with approaches to policy formulation currently under development by a range of UK agencies. Such maps may be used to assist estimation of the extent and location of farming response to land use policy change.     

Integrated planning for landscape diversity enhancement,fire hazard mitigation and forest production regulation: A case study in central Portugal

Forest fires and forest biodiversity are related issues of major concern in Mediterranean countries and require an integrated approach to landscape planning. The aim of this study was to develop a GIS approach for regulating forest production while promoting landscape diversity and mitigating fire hazard. A study area located in the centre of Portugal was chosen. The area was primarily occupied by maritime pine and had a high fire hazard, low tree species diversity and an extensive protection area. The classical area control method was used to assist in forest production regulation. Species suitability maps were produced for 21 recommended species for afforestation in the study area. Maritime pine management compartments were defined, and a 50-year harvesting plan was proposed. In each harvested compartment, protection areas were identified for species conversion (e.g., native oaks and/or broadleaves). Afforestation species were proposed according to the species suitability maps produced earlier. Low flammability species that produce high-quality wood, non-wood products and landscape enhancement were preferred. A comparison of the land cover in the study area in 2007 to that anticipated in 2064 via the proposed plan showed that a more fragmented landscape structure could be achieved by introducing 16 species of lower flammability than maritime pine into the study area. This study proved the usefulness of this methodological approach for guiding sustainable changes in homogeneous, unmanaged forest landscapes prone to fire. Further research is needed regarding integrated planning approaches that incorporate environmental, economic and social dimensions (e.g., human desertification of rural areas).     

基于动态过程导向的马铃薯种植适宜性时空精细化评价研究

目的 为优化我国冷凉区作物种植结构布局,选择我国东北黑龙江、吉林和内蒙古冷凉地区为研究区,基于动态过程导向的马铃薯种植适宜性时空精细化评价方法,开展典型马铃薯早熟、中晚熟品种种植适宜性研究。方法 文章根据马铃薯干重与生育时间函数关系获取以每天为评价基本单元的纵向加权精细化赋值,基于随机森林方法获取横向环境指标精细化加权值,生成马铃薯种植适宜性评价结果图;应用马铃薯空间实际种植点及DSSAT-SUBSTOR-Potato模型模拟马铃薯单产,对适宜性评价结果进行交叉验证。结果 （1）早熟品种费乌瑞它的种植适宜区集中于大兴安岭林区与平原交界的缓冲地带,而马铃薯中晚熟品种延薯四号适宜区分布在平原、林区与平原交界处。无论是费乌瑞它或是延薯四号,其在牡丹江林前耕地区域的适宜性普遍不高,但是在牡丹江周围的平原耕地适宜性较好。（2）基于动态过程导向的马铃薯种植适宜性时空精细化评价方法与模型评价方法有关早熟品种的评价结果较为一致,重合度超过70%;在生长期较长的中晚熟品种的适宜区评价中,由于权重和生长期差异导致评价结果出现不同,尤其在低适宜区差异更加明显,重合度低于40%。结论 由此可知,应用不同方法评价作物种植适宜性时,不同的品种可能获取不同的结论。     

AO支持下的土地适宜性评价系统研制

土地适宜性评价是土地利用总体规划的一项基本工作和重要内容.以主流GIS软件为平台进行二次开发,建立了土地适宜性评价系统LSES.该系统集数据管理、土地利用现状分析、土地评价于一体,有力地促进了土地利用与管理工作的规范化、系统化和现代化,为土地管理、规划和因地制宜、合理利用土地资源提供空间分析和辅助预测工具.实例研究验证了该系统的有效性.     

Dynamic land use and land cover changes and their effect on forest resources in a coastal village of Matemwe,Zanzibar, Tanzania

Recent land cover change estimates show overall decline of tropical forests at the regional and global scales caused by multiple social, cultural and economic factors. There is an overall concern on the prevailing land use practices, such as shifting cultivation and extraction of forest materials as agents of forests losses, but also new, emerging land uses are threatening tropical forests. Understanding of the long-term development and driving forces of forest changes are needed, especially at local levels where many decisions on forest policies and land uses are made. This paper addresses the importance of such information for improved estimates of forest dynamics by studying local level land cover and land use changes during the last 50–70 years in the Eastern African tropical island of Zanzibar, Tanzania. The paper discusses the role of traditional and new land uses mainly subsistence farming, tourism and government interference through tree planting, in the long-term development of the forests at the village level. The material for the study is gathered from the interpretation of archival maps and aerial photographs combined with contemporary digital aerial photographs. The analyses are based on the mapping, spatial sampling and spatio-temporal change trajectory analysis (LCTA) of forest land cover, forest land uses and settlement patterns with GIS and statistics. Six distinct forest land cover change trajectories were identified and these illustrate dynamic and heterogeneous nature of the forests. Closed forest cover has dominated throughout due to cyclical land use patterns, but over 70% of the land area has been continuously transforming between closed, semi-open and open land cover conditions. Land use turnover rates indicate that hardly any forest areas are left untouched from the forces, which remove and re-establish forest vegetation in the long run. Land cover and land use change trajectories are spatially fragmented in the studied landscape. Majority of forest loss-gain dynamics is caused by shifting cultivation, while forest losses are most dramatic along the coast, where traditional and new land uses meet and land uses pressures are highest. The study suggests that landscape change trajectory analyses, where contemporary and historical information on land uses and land cover changes are spatially linked, can provide valuable aspects into local level forest land use planning and management strategies. For the case study, the findings suggest the following key forest management strategies for consideration: (1) establishment of a protected forest/scrubland in participation with the local stakeholders, especially the farmers, (2) promotion of areas for permanent agricultural practices, while simultaneously introducing management controls in the traditional slash-and-burn farming areas, and (3) promoting new livelihood opportunities for the farmers, who have traditionally been dependent on forest resources, meanwhile introducing alternatives for fuel wood for cooking.     

Suitability evaluation of urban construction land in Pendik district of Istanbul,Turkey

Urban land suitability analysis is a complex process that requires geo-physical and environmental information and relevant expertise to analyse and interpret the information. This paper focuses on the integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCA) for the assessment of potential suitability of urban development in Pendik district located in eastern Istanbul, Turkey. Various factors, including geo-physical attributes, accessibility, built-up area and infrastructure, vegetation, and green and blue amenities, were used for the land-use suitability assessments. Two different approaches (a deterministic and a fuzzy modelling approach) were utilised to evaluate the suitability of land uses for residential, industrial/commercial and recreational developments. Standardisation of values and unification of scales in map layers were done using the traditional deterministic approach in the first model, whereas fuzzy logic was used in the second model for the same purpose. AHP weighted the sub-criteria in the first model, and the fuzzy AHP method was used in the second model. The map layers were overlaid using the weighted linear combination for both cases using the GIS software. The final stage of the suitability assessment process consisted of a sensitivity analysis of the selected factors and their associated weights. The integration of fuzzy logic, fuzzy AHP and GIS is an advanced methodology and can improve suitability evaluations compared with those of alternatives based on traditional approaches. From our findings, we note that suitable lands for urban development are mainly located in the central and southern parts of the case study area. Our results also highlight how the spatial distribution of suitability classes vary with the selected model utilised for suitability assessment. The methodologies described in the paper can be extended to similar contexts, both locally and internationally.     

基于元胞生态位适宜度模型的低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性评价

研究目的：评价低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性。研究方法：以GIS为系统环境,通过元胞自动机模拟地理空间过程,“生态位”确定元胞邻域之间的转换规则,构建元胞自动机生态位适宜度模型。研究结果：模型运行得出了安宁市低丘缓坡土地开发建设适宜性的等级图谱,适宜建设区域主要分布在低丘缓坡区域的东北部,模型运行有效。研究结论：元胞生态位适宜度模型运行结果生态意义明确,适用于生态保护为目的的同质性区域建设用地适宜性评价,为评价、优化和编制低丘缓坡专项规划方案奠定了很好基础,也为类似的山地土地利用适宜性评价提供了方法借鉴。     

矿山土地适宜性评价及复垦模式研究——以河南省重点煤炭基地土地复垦工程为例

以河南省重点煤炭基地土地复垦工程为例,分析了全省挖损地、塌陷地、压占地三大类待复垦土地现状,借鉴FAO的土地适宜性评价方法分别对三类待复垦土地进行了适宜性评价,以此测算出三类待复垦土地的复垦潜力,并进行了土地复垦潜力分区,最后总结出了集约化农业生态利用、果草林生态利用和农林渔禽生态利用三种土地复垦模式.     

武汉市工业用地生态适宜性评价

研究目的：阐明城市工业用地生态适宜性评价的理论与方法,评价武汉市都市圈内的工业用地生态适宜性。研究方法：多因素加权评价法与GIS空间分析方法。研究结果：（1）明确了城市工业用地生态适宜性评价必须以生态为前提;（2）进行了武汉市工业用地生态适宜性评价及评价结果的分析,并指出其空间分析必须在同一尺度下进行;（3）探究了武汉市工业用地的发展方向。研究结论：武汉市都市圈工业用地呈集团式发展,应当控制其向生态敏感区发展。     

Land use dynamics in the central highlands of Vietnam: a spatial model combining village survey data with satellite imagery interpretation

The paper investigates geo‐physical, agro‐ecological, and socio‐economic determinants of past land use change in two districts of Dak Lak province in the Central Highlands of Vietnam and assesses the influence of rural development policies on land cover change. Landsat satellite images from the years 1975, 1992 and 2000 are interpreted to detect land cover in two time periods. A survey in randomly selected villages provides primary recall data on socio‐economic and policy variables hypothesised to influence land use change. Secondary data on rainfall, soil suitability, and topography was obtained from meteorological stations and from a digital soil map and digital elevation model. All data were spatially referenced using geographic information systems (GIS) software. A reduced‐form, multinomial logit model is used to estimate the influence of hypothesised determinants on land use and the probabilities that a certain pixel has one of five land classes during either of the two periods. Results suggest that the first period from 1975 to 1992 was characterised by land‐intensive agricultural expansion and the conversion of forest into grass and agricultural land. During the second period, since 1992, the rapid, more labour‐ and capital‐intensive growth in the agricultural sector was enabled by the introduction of fertiliser, improved access to rural roads and markets, and expansion of the irrigated area. These policies, combined with the introduction of protected forest areas and policies discouraging shifting cultivation during the second period reduced the pressure on forests while at the same time increasing agricultural productivity and incomes for a growing population. Forest cover during the second period mainly increased due to the regeneration of areas formerly used for shifting cultivation.     

基于RS和GIS的武汉市工业用地生态适宜性评价

快速城市化背景下的城市建设用地无序扩张,不仅造成土地资源的浪费,而且造成城市及其周边区域生态环境的破坏.生态适宜性评价是区域规划的前提和基础并亟待开展.基于RS和GIS技术,充分运用RS技术在土地信息获取和GIS技术在数据管理和空间分析方面的优势,建立了武汉市工业用地生态适宜性评价数据库.在GIS数据库支持下完成整个评...     

Drug trafficking,cattle ranching and Land use and Land cover change in Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve

Drug trafficking organizations are driving deforestation in Guatemala’s Maya Biosphere Reserve. Drug traffickers deforest the protected area in order to illegally ranch cattle, which serves as a mechanism of money laundering, drug smuggling, and territory control. Journalists and ethnographers have analyzed “narco-cattle ranching” activities in the reserve and resulting “narco-deforestation,” yet land use change scientists have yet to quantify the contribution of illegal cattle ranching to forest loss. This article uses remote sensing and GIS analysis to distinguish the relative contribution of cattle ranching, farming, and land speculation to reserve deforestation and other forms of land use and land cover change. We also use ethnographic methods to provide evidentiary links between illegal cattle ranching and drug trafficking activities that suggest a large part, but not all, of illegal cattle ranching is narco-capitalized. Our research finds that illegal cattle ranching is responsible for the majority of reserve deforestation, ranging from 59 to 87% of photographs on deforested lands in three sampled areas. We also found illegal cattle ranching activities are the highest in the reserve’s western national parks, which should be strictly protected from land use change. Contrary to popular debate, these findings suggest drug traffickers in the context of the US-led War on Drugs are to blame for forest loss, not subsistence farmers illegally living in the reserve.     

Marginal periurban agricultural areas: A support method for landscape planning

The significant proportion of often abandoned marginal/enclosed agricultural land in city peripheries has given rise to the need for studying the delicate relationship between built-up areas and rural land. These issues are exacerbated where metropolitan settlement has no bounds and begins to invade the rural space juxtaposed between cities and urban areas.This marginal land, in particular where a minimum of agricultural activity persists, could provide support to urban activities for recreation, farm services and local production of goods, reducing energy consumption, greenhouse-gas emissions, global warming and packaging, conserving biodiversity. These actions will allow the composting and the reuse of treated waste waters for irrigation.In particular, urban agriculture can play an educational role by contributing to reducing crime and improving community/ethnic relations, encouraging time spent in the open air and ensuring food safety.This study describes a methodology related to the analysis, to the identification, of the residual agricultural areas, differentiating them in accordance with the various levels of rurality to indicate the models of use, which allow to enhance the local landscape situations (preservation of the agricultural function or insertion of integrated activities) obtaining the pertinent valorisation. This methodology has been applied to the metropolitan area in the North zone of Catania.The method has three distinct phases: (1) land analysis and GIS construction consists of acquiring and georeferencing cartographic data, field studies to check and update the maps, and carry out a questionnaire on farm data; (2) data processing with GIS to create some thematic maps; (3) proposal of suitable land-use models.     

Environmental land use conflicts: A threat to soil conservation

Soil vulnerability and environmental land use conflicts were quantified and cross tabulated in the Sordo River basin (Trás-os-Montes Province, NE Portugal) to provide insights about the risk of soil degradation within that basin. Soil vulnerability was assessed by algorithms of multi criteria analysis and weighted linear combination, whereas environmental land use conflicts were described by an original approach. Three vulnerability scenarios were considered, enhancing the importance of topographic slope, soil class and use and occupation of soils, respectively, as vulnerability factors. Regardless the scenario, approximately two-thirds to the basin was defined as areas with high vulnerability. Fortunately, only 10.9% of the basin is in environmental conflict, where actual land uses deviate from natural uses determined by soil characteristics. The cross tabulation of high vulnerability areas with conflict areas, which defines the areas at risk of soil degradation, reveal that risk areas account for approximately 3.2–8.4% of the basin, depending on the scenario, being concentrated in steep slope hillsides suited for forest or mixed forest and pasture occupations but actually used for irrigated crop lands, vineyards and olive yards. Some conservation practices are implemented in the vineyard and olive yard areas, namely through the construction of terraces. These structures minimize soil erosion but are potentially unstable beyond given intervals of terrain slope. On the other hand, the maintenance of terraces is costly and for that reason eventually unaffordable for many farmers, and they also entail a mischaracterization of the historical and architectural heritage of the Douro Wine Region (UNESCO World Heritage). In this context, it was suggested the approval of legislation as regards the design, construction and maintenance of terraces, while in a broader perspective it was recommended the appreciation of a European Directive for soil protection and its subsequent transposition to the national legislation.     

基于适宜性评价的土地资源空间区划研究——以河南省为例

[目的]随着人口的不断增加及城市化的快速发展,人地矛盾日益突出,土地等自然资源空间结构正在大规模转换。科学规划土地空间结构,在土地资源有限的前提下,合理分配土地资源,已成为区域可持续发展必须要解决的现实问题。[方法]采用GIS多因素叠加分析技术和土地利用适宜性评价模型,以土地利用类型、覆被动态变化为评价指标,采用层次分析法,确定指标权重,对河南省的土地资源空间进行适宜性评价。[结果]河南省漯河市、焦作市及洛阳市等地区的农业土地资源空间使用功能效率和农业技术发展水平相适应,土地适应性评价标准能够得到I等(S1)。河南省其他各市中的土地资源空间区划方面的优化空间较高,提高河南东部及北部的土地资源空间农业优化,能够提高河南省资源的使用效率。[结论]适宜性评价结果准确反映了河南省土地资源的实际情况,在制定河南省土地资源空间区划决策过程中发挥着重要作用,且对区域土地资源适宜性评价研究及提高土地资源空间区划的质量和效率提供一定的参考。     

Preserving and destroying soils, transforming landscapes: Soils and land-use changes in the Vallès County (Catalunya, Spain) 1853–2004

In this paper we analyse the relations between land characteristics and land use, and their evolution in the Vallès county (Catalunya) since 1850. We reconstructed in digital format the 1850s cadastral maps of three villages (Caldes, Castellar, and Polinyà) and those made in 1950 of five villages (the previous three plus Sentmenat and Palau-Solità). For 1999 we used the available cadastral and land-use maps and conducted field surveys. We evaluated the suitability of land for the various agricultural uses (winter cereal, alfalfa, vineyard, olive, and almond orchards) considering the different land-use systems of 1850 and 1999. Forty to sixty percent of the land was more or less suitable for each of the land uses. Whilst in 1850 land used for agriculture was 46% of the total area and 29% was used for forest, these figures turned to 28% and 53%, respectively, by 1999. Urban and industrial areas now occupy 13% of the total land area and 47% of the best agricultural land. In 1850, 34% of the vineyards and 23% of the area with cereal crops were located on non-suitable or poorly suitable land for these uses. This shows a much more strict criterion for the location of cereal fields. But it also shows how the land-owning class tried to prevent further social conflicts by leasing their least suitable land for agriculture to the landless classes. In 1850 in the village of Caldes, 85% of the cereal fields were on slopes less than 20%, but 30% of the vineyards were on slopes of more than 30%, and sometimes up to 60–70%. Slopes protected with stone terraces occupied 700 ha, 43% of the land in agriculture in 1850, and 80% of that area was used for vineyards. Building of these terraces, which were generally small, required some 120,000 work days, and was undertaken on relatively soft geological materials while they disappear on the transition to competent geological materials. These results show that land characteristics influence land-use decision making and historical landscape changes. However, the extension of agriculture to non-suitable land in 1850 reflects deeper social conflicts, and required a vast labour investment in soil conservation by the poorest rural classes. The importance of terraces within this landscape and the land-use alternatives are also discussed.     

Managing logging compensation payment conflicts in Ghana: Understanding actor-empowerment and implications for policy intervention

Forest resources outside permanent forest reserves form a substantial part of the overall natural forest biodiversity resources in Ghana. However, timber exploitation in off-reserve areas has been problematic as loggers and farmers have often been involved in conflicts over payment of crop-damage compensation. The paper examines 81 cases of this conflict which were reconstructed chronologically to investigate patterns of actors’ use of power resources and strategies and their effectiveness. The study employed an actor-empowerment conceptualisation of power and used a two-actor game model for the reconstruction of the conflicts. While several strategies and resources were mobilised and employed by the actors, their effectiveness were context-bound. The paper makes a case for areas where actors’ conflict capabilities could be built, why mediated bargaining can be more effective for managing such local conflict constellations and the need to interlock actor interests for mutual interaction by institutionalising mediated bargaining.     

县域农业土地利用适宜性评价与优化研究以山西省原平市为例

目的 通过对原平市农业产业适宜性的定量评价,并结合土地利用的角度对原平市农业产业进行布局优化。方法 文章基于GIS空间分析和AHP方法,建立农业适宜性评价指标体系,刻画原平市农业产业适宜性指数的空间分布格局,得出适宜性分级图,进一步叠加原平市土地利用数据,进行农业优化布局分析。结果 原平市农业适宜性水平整体较低,只有14.82%的区域适宜和非常适宜农业生产,集中分布于中部平原地区;53.21%的地区基本适宜农业生产,主要分布于东部丘陵和西部山区;31.97%的地区不适宜农业发展,主要分布于西部山区;同时,在不适宜农业生产的地区中约有15.3%的土地被开垦为耕地,限制了该市整体农业生产效率的提高。结论 与传统的土地适应性相比,该研究嵌入了社会经济因子和管理水平的影响分析,使得研究结果更贴合实际。如何进一步挖掘更全面表征气候、生态、社会经济等影响因素,构建更加全面的适宜性评价指标体系,制定区域有别、因地而异的评价体系标准,是加强农业土地适宜性评价科学性和准确性的有利保障。     

大连旅顺区土地利用及地表温度时空分异研究

伴随着城市空间的快速扩展,土地利用发生巨大转变,城市气候和生态环境问题日益突出。本文以大连旅顺区为例,基于2005年和2016年两期数据,单窗算法进行地表温度反演,并通过GIS空间分析方法,探讨旅顺区土地利用及地表温度时空分异特征。2005-2016年,旅顺区建设用地、水域面积呈增加趋势,面积分别增加了9.51 km2、13.19 km2;耕地、林草地及其他用地呈减少趋势;11年间,旅顺区地表温度整体逐渐升高;各用地的地表温度呈现出“建设用地和其他用地>耕地和园地>林草用地和水域”状态。     

面向国土空间规划的农业生产适宜性评价——以辽中平原为例

[目的]依据农业生产的自然本底条件与国土利用现状,开展农业生产适宜性评价与承载规模测算研究,可为科学支撑国土空间规划编制提供理论参考。[方法]文章依据资源环境承载能力与国土空间适宜性的基本评价导向,以辽中平原为例,通过分析农业生产的水、土、光热、环境质量、气象灾害、国土利用、生态保护等条件与风险,细化了农业生产适宜性与承载规模评价方法,并基于GIS空间分析开展了相应评价。[结果]辽中平原农业生产适宜区、一般适宜区、不适宜区面积占比分别为48.1%、23.9%和28.0%。不适宜区主要受现状国土利用、坡度、土壤肥力、环境质量制约。不适宜区内分布有耕地、园地13.9万hm2,主要在平原北部的沈阳、铁岭、阜新等地。辽中平原农业生产承载规模约320.6万hm2,高出现状耕地规模约16%,整体上农业生产承载能力尚有盈余,但受水资源约束,盘锦、营口平原区域的农业生产规模超载。[结论]为支撑区域国土空间规划、保障粮食生产安全,需加强辽中平原农业生产不适宜区内的耕地监管,开展周边土地及环境综合整治,必要时制定耕地调入调出方案,优化农业生产超载地区的水量调配方案及用水结构,大力推行农业节水灌溉。