基于RS和GIS的土地利用结构动态变化及发展预测研究--以南通市为例

在遥感技术（RS）与地理信息系统（GIS）技术支持下,通过对南通市区2003年、2005年、2007年三期中巴地球资源卫星CBERS遥感影像数据进行处理,并通过对处理后的图像进行非监督分类获得了南通市三期土地利用类型图和不同土地利用类型的面积数据,之后通过对三期土地利用类型数据进行叠加分析,得到了南通市区土地利用类型转移矩阵,计算了各种地类的变化率,并对未来南通市区土地利用变化情况做出了预测,结果表明：1.南通市土地变化总体呈现出建设用地持续快速增长,耕地显著减少的趋势;2.导致这种变化的直接诱因则是南通城市化进程加快,经济发展迅速,建筑用地正在不断的取代耕地和其他用地;3.如果以当前的变化模式稳定延续下去,在2012年后很短时间内南通市区建设用地面积将占全区总面积的50%以上,同时耕地面积会进一步大幅下降,土地非农化的趋势将更加明显。     

Temporal and spatial variability of agricultural land loss in relation to policy and accessibility in a low hilly region of southeast China

The temporal and spatial patterns in land use change in a low hilly region in southeast of China was analyzed from maps of converted agricultural land for 1999–2006. The factors driving farm land conversion was analyzed using logistic regression models. The amount of agricultural land loss varied temporally, and the spatial distribution of converted agricultural land patches decreased from low to high altitudes in the study area. Analysis using logistic regression models showed that good accessibility sped up the conversion of agricultural land to other uses, the elevation of a parcel lowered the risk of conversion, and agricultural land conversions are highly correlated with its adjacent or neighboring parcels’ land use, with the probability of being converted decreasing as the distance to nearest construction land increases. In addition, land use policy, especially the land use regulation policy issued by the central government decreased the agricultural land loss, and the more stringent regulation on cultivated land conversion lowered the possibility of conversion from cultivated land to other use.     

福州市土地利用变化及其驱动力分析

从土地利用数量变化、土地利用程度变化两个方面,对福州市(1996～2004)土地利用变化情况进行了分析,并运用主成分分析法来确定影响福州市土地利用变化的主要驱动因子。研究结果表明:研究段内福州市的居民地及工矿用地、交通建设用地增幅最大,而耕地面积、未利用土地面积减幅最大,建设用地的增加主要来自耕地面积的转化;随着社会经济水平的提高,土地利用程度不断加深;人口增长、工业化和城镇化、经济的发展、土地利用宏观政策的变化是影响福州市土地利用变化的主要驱动力。     

The effect of decoupling on marginal agricultural systems: Implications for farm incomes,land use and upland ecology

In many parts of Europe, decades of production subsidies led to the steady intensification of agriculture in marginal areas. The recent decoupling of subsidies from production decisions means that the future of farming in these areas is uncertain. For example, in the uplands of the United Kingdom, an area important both for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision, hill farmers steadily increased stocking densities in response to headage payments but must now reconfigure farm businesses to account for the shift to the Single Farm Payment scheme. We examined hill farming in the Peak District National Park as a case study into the future of marginal agriculture after decoupling. We surveyed 44 farm businesses and from this identified six representative farm types based on enterprise mix and land holdings. We developed linear programming models of production decisions for each farm type to examine the impacts of policy changes, comparing the effects of decoupling with and without agri-environment and hill farm support, and evaluating the effects of removal of the Single Farm Payment. The main effects of decoupling are to reduce stocking rates, and to change the mix of livestock activities. Agri-environmental schemes mediate the income losses from decoupling, and farmers are predicted to maximise take up of new Environmental Stewardship programmes, which have both positive and negative feedback effects on livestock numbers. Finally, removal of the Single Farm Payment leads to negative net farm incomes, and some land abandonment. These changes have important implications for ongoing debates about how ecological service flows can be maintained from upland areas, and how marginal upland farming communities can be sustained.     

The social construction of a land cover map and its implications for Geographical Information Systems (GIS) as a management tool

The social construction of a land cover map is explored and the implications of this process for the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) as a land management tool are discussed. Different social contexts create different mapping regimes and contribute to different conceptions of area classes. This likely creates challenges for the mapping process, including the consistency and comparability of the final product across time and space. In this study, part of the mapping process for the Norwegian land cover map called AR5 was followed. By seeing map classes as experiential categories, light is shed on the social construction of land cover/use maps. Different administrative units involved in the mapping process have different interpretations of area classes, even if the class definitions are the same. Local administrative units are closely influenced by the realities of local farmers and tend to map land use rather than land cover, even when they are instructed by the national mapping agency to map land cover. Such a difference challenges the comparability and consistency of maps (land cover vs. land use) when they are used in GIS to detect and monitor change. Alternatively, such co-operative map-making can be seen as an opportunity for the sharing and negotiation of power between the different management groups involved.     

区域土地利用强度内涵及其应用--以河北省曲周县为例

研究目的:确定区域土地利用强度新的内涵并对其进行实证研究.研究方法:文献资料综合法、因子分析法、地理信息系统(GIS).研究结果:土地利用由数量利用和质量利用组成,不同影响因子限定条件构成土地利用强度各维度的发展空间;土地利用强度的表征函数可由二维拓展到多维,其值是土地利用过程中各影响因子共同作用的结果.以河北省曲周县为实证点,依据因子分析结果,分析县域种植业土地利用强度,并用GIS进行空间表达.研究结论:(1)以曲周镇为中心,土地利用强度由里向外逐渐降低;(2)县域中部土地利用强度高于南、北部;(3)县域土地利用强度格局是农户种植业微观土地利用行为累积的结果,其中农产品价格与耕地立地条件是县域种植业土地利用强度格局主要驱动因素.     

Marginal periurban agricultural areas: A support method for landscape planning

The significant proportion of often abandoned marginal/enclosed agricultural land in city peripheries has given rise to the need for studying the delicate relationship between built-up areas and rural land. These issues are exacerbated where metropolitan settlement has no bounds and begins to invade the rural space juxtaposed between cities and urban areas.This marginal land, in particular where a minimum of agricultural activity persists, could provide support to urban activities for recreation, farm services and local production of goods, reducing energy consumption, greenhouse-gas emissions, global warming and packaging, conserving biodiversity. These actions will allow the composting and the reuse of treated waste waters for irrigation.In particular, urban agriculture can play an educational role by contributing to reducing crime and improving community/ethnic relations, encouraging time spent in the open air and ensuring food safety.This study describes a methodology related to the analysis, to the identification, of the residual agricultural areas, differentiating them in accordance with the various levels of rurality to indicate the models of use, which allow to enhance the local landscape situations (preservation of the agricultural function or insertion of integrated activities) obtaining the pertinent valorisation. This methodology has been applied to the metropolitan area in the North zone of Catania.The method has three distinct phases: (1) land analysis and GIS construction consists of acquiring and georeferencing cartographic data, field studies to check and update the maps, and carry out a questionnaire on farm data; (2) data processing with GIS to create some thematic maps; (3) proposal of suitable land-use models.     

Protecting farm land near cities : Trade-offs with affordable housing in Hawaii

In protecting farm land near cities, policy makers must balance the interests of farmers against affordable housing demands of the urban population. This article examines land use competition between agriculture and housing on the Hawaiian island of Oahu. Land suitability ratings for farming and urban development are compared, and future urban expansion onto agricultural land is simulated under different land use policies. Results indicate severe tradeoffs for affordable housing if all high quality farm lands are strictly preserved. Achieving farmland protection goals will require further policy support to transform the local farm structure from plantation to diversified agriculture.     

Driving Forces behind Exiting from Farming in Western Europe

This study examines the exit process of Western European farmers. Using a simple theoretical model of structural change, we examine empirically the impact of farm characteristics, macroeconomic conditions and policy intervention on farm exits during the 1990s. Econometric estimates using regional data for 110 regions in Western Europe indicate that exits from farming are strongly influenced by farm characteristics and policy conditions. In particular, exit rates are higher in regions with smaller farms and are closely related to production structures. Exit rates are lower in regions with more part‐time farming, high subsidy payments and high relative price increases for agricultural outputs, indicating that off‐farm income and government intervention slow down structural change in European agriculture.     

Passive farming and land development: A real options approach

The EU's farmers are no longer required to produce commodities to receive direct payments as long as they keep their land in good condition. Some believe this is bad for development because it encourages passive farming. We evaluate, using a real options approach, the implications of decoupled payments for the desirability and optimal timing of agricultural land development when considering sunk investment costs and uncertain future returns. We find that decoupled payments accelerate development while passive farming increases, by adding managerial flexibility, the value associated with land. We then use the Nash bargaining solution to identify the rental share to be paid for leasing land. We show that a deal for the lease of land can always be reached, but that the facility to use passive farming as an outside option allows landowners to extract policy rents, thereby undermining the potential for the Basic Payment Scheme to support tenant farmers’ incomes.     

Dynamic land use and land cover changes and their effect on forest resources in a coastal village of Matemwe,Zanzibar, Tanzania

Recent land cover change estimates show overall decline of tropical forests at the regional and global scales caused by multiple social, cultural and economic factors. There is an overall concern on the prevailing land use practices, such as shifting cultivation and extraction of forest materials as agents of forests losses, but also new, emerging land uses are threatening tropical forests. Understanding of the long-term development and driving forces of forest changes are needed, especially at local levels where many decisions on forest policies and land uses are made. This paper addresses the importance of such information for improved estimates of forest dynamics by studying local level land cover and land use changes during the last 50–70 years in the Eastern African tropical island of Zanzibar, Tanzania. The paper discusses the role of traditional and new land uses mainly subsistence farming, tourism and government interference through tree planting, in the long-term development of the forests at the village level. The material for the study is gathered from the interpretation of archival maps and aerial photographs combined with contemporary digital aerial photographs. The analyses are based on the mapping, spatial sampling and spatio-temporal change trajectory analysis (LCTA) of forest land cover, forest land uses and settlement patterns with GIS and statistics. Six distinct forest land cover change trajectories were identified and these illustrate dynamic and heterogeneous nature of the forests. Closed forest cover has dominated throughout due to cyclical land use patterns, but over 70% of the land area has been continuously transforming between closed, semi-open and open land cover conditions. Land use turnover rates indicate that hardly any forest areas are left untouched from the forces, which remove and re-establish forest vegetation in the long run. Land cover and land use change trajectories are spatially fragmented in the studied landscape. Majority of forest loss-gain dynamics is caused by shifting cultivation, while forest losses are most dramatic along the coast, where traditional and new land uses meet and land uses pressures are highest. The study suggests that landscape change trajectory analyses, where contemporary and historical information on land uses and land cover changes are spatially linked, can provide valuable aspects into local level forest land use planning and management strategies. For the case study, the findings suggest the following key forest management strategies for consideration: (1) establishment of a protected forest/scrubland in participation with the local stakeholders, especially the farmers, (2) promotion of areas for permanent agricultural practices, while simultaneously introducing management controls in the traditional slash-and-burn farming areas, and (3) promoting new livelihood opportunities for the farmers, who have traditionally been dependent on forest resources, meanwhile introducing alternatives for fuel wood for cooking.     

城市边缘区土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响研究——以大连市甘井子区为例

以大连市甘井子区为研究对象,基于GIS技术结合土地利用动态度模型和生态系统服务价值估算方法,分析2000、2003、2006和2009年4个时序的大连市甘井子区土地利用数据,研究其土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响。大连市甘井子区作为典型的城市边缘区,对其进行研究,可以得出城环边缘区的土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响特征,对城市边缘区的土地利用规划与整理提供科学价值。结果表明,大连市甘井子区2000~2009年土地利用发生明显变化,耕地、园地、未利用地面积减少,建设用地、林地、水域面积有所增加,耕地土地利用动态度为-6.10%,建设用地土地利用动态度为1.27%;2000~2006年甘井子区生态系统服务价值呈现增加态势,6年间增加2 600.91万元,2006~2009年呈现减少态势,3年间减少679.36万元;除林地外,其他土地利用敏感性指数均小于1,生态系统服务价值对价值系数缺乏弹性。     

Owned or rented—does it matter? Agricultural land use change within farm properties,case studies from Norway

In Norway and many other countries agriculture has moved toward less, but bigger farms. Total agricultural area has not been much affected mainly due to land tenancy. In this study we used aerial photographs to map land use and land cover in agricultural areas at present and in the mid-sixties. Three study sites were chosen, representing areas of differences with respect to drivers of change and possible differences in their landscape outcome. Maps from the two periods were used to produce transition matrices for the three areas as well as within each farm property. Our main finding on acreage change is that fully cultivated land increases and pastures decreases. A novel feature in our study is that we also include land use changes within single properties. In all three places a large share of the fully cultivated land in the sixties remains fully cultivated land irrespectively of whether the land is in use by its owner or is rented. When we looked at increases of fully cultivated land, the results are mixed. In the less favorable region, ownership to land versus rented land helps explain the variation in gain of fully cultivated land as well as maintained total agricultural area. However, in the case study from the grain region, whether a farm property today is in use as own land or rented, do not help explain the variation in changes within the data sample of farm properties larger than one hectare.     

FARM SYNDICATION AND RISK SHARING: A CASE STUDY*

The effectiveness of fully integrated group farming as a means of permitting farmers to achieve economies by working together and to share risk is investigated using two case-study farms from the mid-north region of S.A. Linear programming is used to explore the scope for economies achievable through group farming. The results show that, by joint use of resources, total net farm income can be increased and average costs per unit value of output can be reduced. The risk-sharing advantages of group farming are examined using quadratic risk programming. A group farm plan is found that generates a risky income which, when shared between the two risk-averse farmers, allows both to increase their expected utilities. The group plan also generates a higher aggregate expected net farm income than with sole ownership.     

基于格网尺度的密云水库区域“三生”空间功能测度与时空变化分析

[目的]为有目标地进行土地利用调整、科学合理促进区域生态景观建设和生态环境保护提供参考。[方法]文章以北京市密云水库区域为研究对象,基于遥感影像解译的1993年和2016年土地利用现状图,分析了研究区土地利用类型的面积变化和相互转换特征;在剖析土地多功能性的基础上,构建了不同土地利用类型的生产、生活、生态用地的功能指数,从而对土地利用类型进行了"三生"空间的划分,并基于格网尺度揭示了研究区域"三生"空间时空变化规律。[结果](1) 1993—2016年密云水库区域土地利用类型主要为林地和水域,其面积变化以耕地、林地、草地和园地为主。其中,耕地和草地的面积减少,主要转换为园地;林地面积增加,主要来源于草地和荒土地;园地面积增加,主要来源于林地、耕地和草地;林地和园地之间相互转化的面积较大。(2)研究期间,密云水库区域"三生"空间相对稳定,生态功能一直是研究区域的主导功能,1993—2016年生产空间和生活空间扩张,生态空间略有缩小;不同级别保护区范围内的土地利用变化规律与总体变化较为一致,二级保护区范围内的变化相对大。[结论]研究结果可以为精细化评估区域"三生"空间时空变化做参考,并能服务于区域土地利用结构调整和可持续利用及区域生态建设。     

Institutional innovation and policy support to facilitate small‐scale farming transformation in China

While the Asian food economy has been experiencing significant transitions, it is widely believed that little transformation has occurred in farm land operation. However, the recent rapid emergence of middle and large‐size farms in many regions of China is striking, as is the increase in size of operational units. The overall goal of this article is to understand small‐scale farm transformation in China based on a unique dataset surveyed in Northeast and North China. The results show that the institutional innovation through establishing land transfer service centers to promote land rental markets and reduce transaction costs, policy support to speed up land consolidation, and farm mechanization services are major driving forces in the recent evolution of China's farm operations. The article concludes with policy implications on small‐scale farming transformation in China and the rest of world and identifies research issues for further study.     

Retirement farming or sustainable growth – land transfer choices for farmers without a successor

Ireland’s agriculture is characterised by an ageing farmer population and small average farm sizes. These structural issues are shared by a number of European countries and have been identified as barriers to sustainable growth in the sector. While farms with an identified successor usually enter a path of expansion and growth, farms without a successor at some point follow a route of winding down and extensification. Such retirement farming could potentially become an issue for food security and sustainable land use. Understanding the retirement decisions of farmers without a successor is key to address this issue. To this end a survey was conducted with Irish farmers including questions surrounding succession and retirement. About half of the surveyed farmers did not have a successor and two thirds of those did not intend to fully retire from active farming in the future. A logistic regression analysis of the collected data showed that placing a high value on family tradition in farming and only receiving a state pension had a negative effect on the intention to retire, while being aware of changing pension ages had a positive effect. A follow up qualitative study explored the perceptions of farmers without a successor regarding various land transfer options. The participants mainly anticipated negative consequences arising from selling the farm and full retirement such as the loss of land and the end of the farming activity. Other options such as the long-term leasing of part of the land or entering into a partnership with a younger farmer were regarded as having more positive consequences. These included a lowering of the workload, allowing a continuing involvement in farm work, and the ability to be able to stay on the farm.     

Technology,market policies and institutional reform for sustainable land use in southern Mali

To identify appropriate interventions that support sustainable land use; a farm household modelling approach is applied to analyze micro-economic supply reactions to various policy measures. The modelling framework links agro-technical and economic data, and takes both production and consumption decisions into account, allowing land use and production technology adjustments in accordance with farm household objectives. Different types of farm households are distinguished on the basis of their resource endowments, savings coefficients and time discount rate. Actual and alternative (sustainable) cropping and livestock activities for different weather regimes are defined for southern Mali. The effects on sustainable land use and expected farm household welfare of adopting alternative technologies and modifying prices, transaction costs, access to credit and land taxes are demonstrated. Even with full information on sustainable technologies, strong policy interventions are required to halt soil degradation. Structural policies proved to be more effective than price policies to reduce soil degradation while maintaining positive income effects. When prices are determined endogenously, structural policy loses some effectiveness as an incentive for sustainable land use due to the effect of additional supply on local cereal and meat Prices.     

Dynamics of agricultural land use change in Kerala: a policy and social-ecological perspective

Land-use change is a phenomenon highlighting significant shifts in human interaction with the natural environment. Different patterns of agriculture and a trend towards non-agricultural land use challenge the sustainability of farming systems. This study aims to identify the causes of changes in land use and cropping patterns, with a special focus on paddy, the staple crop in Asia. In the case of Wayanad, a district in Kerala, South India, we argue for an interdisciplinary analysis of rapid land-use change to unpack the multiple dimensions of sustainability: economic, ecological and social factors, aggregating up to 70% reduction in the area under paddy by 2010. The results rest on empirical field research, participatory rural appraisals and stakeholder workshops conducted during the 4-year period from 2010 to 2013, along with state- and district-level data covering the 1983–2011 period. Reduced economic viability, labour shortages and population pressure on land are the major drivers for the transformation of paddy fields to other land uses. Changes in land use and agrarian structure reflect not only the livelihood strategies adopted by farmers in response to these drivers, but also the impacts of unintended policy idiosyncrasies. At a more fundamental level, they are the consequences of policy conflicts and inadequate sectoral integration of policies and implementation strategies.     

Is Passive Farming A Problem for Agriculture in the EU?

We address a new agricultural policy concern following the decoupling of CAP direct payments in 2005: passive farming, whereby landowners maintain their agricultural area to collect payments without producing commodities. It is claimed that passive farming is hindering agricultural development by ‘blocking’ access to farmland for expanding farmers. We evaluate the links between the EU's Single Payment Scheme (SPS), passive farming, land use and agricultural development. Following identification of the rational landowners’ optimal land‐use choice, we evaluate the effects of the SPS using a spatial, agent‐based model that simulates farmers’ competition for land in a case‐study region of Sweden. We show that passive farming does not constrain land from being used in production; on the contrary more land is used than would be the case without the SPS. We conclude that passive farming is not a problem for agriculture, but provides public goods that would otherwise be under provided: preservation of marginal farmland and future food security. However SPS payments on highly productive land inflate land values (capitalisation) and slow structural change, which hinder agricultural development. Consequently CAP goals could be better served by targeting payments on marginal land and phasing out payments to highly productive land.