Local Economic Structure and Growth

Abstract

This paper tests how the local economic structure—measured by local sector specialization, competition and diversity—affects growth of manufacturing sectors. Most of the empirical literature assumes that in the long run more productive regions will attract more workers and use employment growth as a measure of local productivity growth. However, this approach is based on strong assumptions, such as those of national labour markets and homogeneous labour. This paper shows that if we relax these assumptions, regional adjusted wage growth is a better measure of productivity growth than employment growth. This measure is used in order to study regional growth in Portuguese regions between 1985 and 1994. Evidence is found of MAR externalities in some sectors and no evidence of Jacobs or Porter externalities in most of the sectors. These results are at odds with the findings for employment-based regressions, which show that regional concentration and the region's size have a negative effect in most of the sectors. It is also shown that simply using regional wage growth would overstate the effect of regional concentration and competition on long-run growth.     

专业化、多样化与产业增长关系——基于中国省级制造业面板数据的实证研究

本文利用中国31个省区169个制造业在1999~2009年的数据,实证分析了专业化、多样化和竞争程度等因素对制造业增长的影响。研究结果表明,在全国样本范围内,专业化(MAR外部性)对制造业增长的影响为负,而多样化的产业环境(Jacobs外部性)和竞争(Porter外部性)有利于制造业的增长。在分地区、分产业和分地区分产业的分析中,专业化和多样化对不同地区和不同类型的制造业增长的影响存在显著差异,但是竞争对制造业的增长始终具有显著正面效应。     

Industry Agglomerations and Employment Change in Non-Metropolitan Areas

The purpose of this study is to determine the role of industry agglomerations on industry-level employment change in non-metro areas of the United States. Regression analysis of cross-sectional data is used to estimate the determinants of non-metro 1981–1992 employment change for ten two-digit SIC manufacturing industries. Industry agglomerations in metro and non-metro areas are identified using cluster analysis. Area characteristics included in the regression equations are diversity of the local economy, industry mix, average plant size and availability of urbanization economies. The findings indicate that industry agglomerations were associated with both larger employment gains in areas with growing industry employment and larger employment losses for areas with declining employment. Neither regional specialization in the industry nor nearby metro agglomerations were significant determinants of employment change in non-metro areas.     

Local employment growth in West Germany: A dynamic panel approach

In this paper we study the dynamics of local employment growth in West Germany from 1980 to 2001. Using dynamic panel techniques, we analyse the timing of the impact of diversity and specialisation, as well as of the human capital structure of local industries. Diversity has a positive effect on employment growth in the short run, which is stronger in manufacturing than in services. Concerning specialisation we find also positive effects. They are, however, not strong enough to reinforce growth permanently, since there is mean reversion in the process. A positive effect of education is only found in manufacturing. Additionally, we look at the impact of firm size and regional wages on local employment growth.     

Knowledge,diversity and entrepreneurship: a spatial analysis of new firm formation in Great Britain

This paper argues that the diversity of a region's knowledge stock and its balance between knowledge-based manufacturing and services are both important determinants of variations in the rate of new business formation across spatial areas. An empirical study of new firm formation across 408 local unitary authorities and districts in Great Britain over the period 2001–2007 is presented, taking explicit account of the interactions amongst spatial units through an econometric modelling procedure involving maximum likelihood spatial models and alternative spatial weighing matrices. The results indicate that both related and unrelated knowledge diversity have a positive impact on the rate of business formation, whilst aggregate local economy-wide industrial and ethnic diversity has no impact; the division of the knowledge stock between services and manufacturing is also significant, with services having a positive impact on new business formation in contrast to a negative impact for high-technology manufacturing. There is also some support for the view that low wages and economic inactivity constrain new business formation, whilst a competitive regional environment has a positive impact. The results imply that polices should be aimed at creating a diverse set of knowledge-based industries rather than specialization in a narrow range.     

Gender equality and economic complexity

This study is the first attempt to examine the influence of gender equality on economic complexity. Specifically, we investigate the effects of four aspects (employment, health, education, rights) of gender equality with 20 variables in an economic complexity index. To deal with potential endogeneity, we used the two-step system–generalized method of moments approach with an unbalanced panel of data on 119 economies from 1991 to 2017. First, labor participation in industry or service sectors as well as wage and salaried employment by women appears to improve economic complexity, while women’s employment in agriculture, contributions to family workers, self-employment, and vulnerable employment have a negative impact. Second, better health conditions for women increase economic complexity. Third, gender equality in education has a positive impact on economic complexity. Fourth, the empowerment of women in terms of socioeconomic-political rights is a positive factor for economic complexity. Overall, gender equality has great benefits for economic complexity.     

The Structure of Sprawl: Identifying and Characterizing Employment Centers in Polycentric Metropolitan Areas

This paper applies a consistent framework to four comparably sized metropolitan areas to identify and characterize their employment centers. Employment centers are identified as places that exceed a threshold employment density and a threshold employment level. They are also characterized as specializing on the basis of location quotient analysis. We find clear evidence of specialization in every employment center in the four metropolitan areas studied. Our interpretation is that what we are observing is a systematic change in metropolitan structure rather than a random sprawling of firms. We also find some evidence that the size distribution of employment centers follows the rank-size rule. This suggests that there is structure not only in the distribution of economic activity among the employment centers but also in their size distribution. Because less than 50 percent of metropolitan employment is within employment centers, future research should focus on understanding the more diffuse employment patterns. The rank-size rule gives some guidance as to the expected size distribution of employment throughout the metropolitan area.     

现代服务业：上海经济增长的新动力

本文通过经济增长弹性与就业弹性两个指标,对上海"十一五"规划中提出将优先发展的现代服务业及其主要子行业在上海经济增长中的作用进行了研究。分析认为目前上海第二产业与第三产业对经济的拉动力相当。而现代服务业的拉动力大于传统服务业。近年来,现代服务业的就业弹性均值较大,同时弹性的波动变化很大,这是上海GDP就业弹性近几年波动增大的主要原因。同时,通过对现代服务业中主要子行业的分析,发现现代服务业子行业间就业弹性的变动有着高度的正相关,这将增加现代服务业就业弹性波动对于上海GDP就业弹性波动的影响。     

The economic impact of migration: productivity analysis for Spain and the UK

Over the past 20?years labour has become increasingly mobile and whilst employment and earnings effects in host countries have been extensively analysed, the implications for firm and industry performance have received far less attention. This paper explores the direct economic consequences of immigration on host nations?? productivity performance at a sectoral level in two very different European countries, Spain and the UK. Whilst the UK has traditionally seen substantial immigration, for Spain the phenomenon is much more recent. Our findings from a growth accounting analysis show that migration has made a negative contribution to labour productivity growth in Spain and a negative but negligible contribution in the UK. This difference is driven by a positive impact from migrant labour quality in the UK. This finding broadly holds across all sectors, but we note considerable variation in magnitudes. Labour productivity growth has a neutral contribution from migrant labour in construction and personal services in the UK, whilst in every case in Spain the effect is negative, most strongly in agriculture. Using an econometric approach to production function estimation we observe a positive long term effect on total factor productivity from migrant workers in the UK and a negative effect in Spain. Our findings suggest that either the UK is better at assimilating migrants or is more selective in terms of who is permitted to migrate.     

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN URBAN CANADA, 1971–1991

This paper presents an analysis of recent patterns of employment growth and structural transformation within urban Canada and, more specifically, seeks to determine which economic activities are becoming spatially more concentrated or more dispersed across the urban system. In addition, the paper seeks to identify the urban area attributes (e.g., size, region, economic diversity) that are most strongly correlated with employment growth. The data employed in the empirical analysis are based upon employment in 159 economic sectors across a set of 152 urban units with populations greater than 10 thousand inhabitants. The results indicate three major trends: tertiarization; spatial polarization; and declining rates of employment growth.     

Decentralized environmental regulations and plant‐level productivity

Using the framework provided by the Porter hypothesis, we study the impact of environmental regulations and enforcement policies on plant‐level green total factor productivity (TFP) growth and its components related to efficiency change and technical change. The detailed microdata we use are from Sweden and for the pulp and paper industry. This industry is the source of significant amounts of water and air pollution and is one of the most heavily environmentally regulated manufacturing industries. Sweden has a unique decentralized regulatory structure where the manufacturing plants have to comply with plant‐specific regulatory standards stipulated at the national level, as well as decentralized local supervision and enforcement. Our empirical results point to beneficial impacts of the environmental policies on plants' green TFP growth and sustainable production practices. We also find that political economy considerations are important, as the presence of the Green Party and aspects like plant size (with corresponding local and regional economic effects) matter in enforcement of the standards.     

区域制造业空间效应及生产性服务业发展模式选择

通过空间计量模型考察生产性服务业发展模式与制造业集聚的空间溢出效应后发现:生产性服务业专业化水平及多样化水平与制造业集聚呈倒U型关系,同时城市化水平会对服务业发展模式与制造业集聚关系产生影响。分区域模型研究发现,生产性服务业对制造业全要素生产率影响因区域经济发展水平、产业层次、要素禀赋等因素有所差异,东部地区制造业全要素生产率与生产性服务业呈线性关系,适合选择多样化发展模式;中部地区呈倒U型关系,现阶段中部地区生产性服务业更适合选择多样化发展模式;西部地区生产性服务业发展水平与制造业全要素生产率呈正U型关系,生产性服务业专业化和多样化发展都将促进制造业全要素生产率提升。     

The China effect: Evidence from data at firm level in Thailand

This study investigates how competition with Chinese imports affects firms in Thailand. Using World Bank data on Thailand and United Nations trade data from 2003 to 2006, the empirical results show that there is no significant impact of Chinese import competition on employment, wages, or labor income share. However, further checks show that for firms with lower productivity, the impact on employment and labor income share is more likely to be negative. The impact of Chinese import competition on profit margins is significantly positive. Considering the impact on labor income share and profit margins, we conclude that because of Chinese import competition, income distribution possibly goes in disfavor of labor. Our study shows that the impact of Chinese import competition on the skilled labor ratio is positive and significant. This result suggests that Thai firms are on the path to skill upgrading as a result of Chinese import competition, which is helpful for Thailand’s long-run economic growth. As firms with low productivity are more likely to be negatively affected by Chinese import competition, improving productivity is still an efficient way to counter such competition.     

Knowledge Spillovers and Growth in the Disagglomeration of the Us Advertising-Agency Industry

We investigate knowledge spillovers and externalities in the disagglomeration and growth of the advertising-agency industry. A simple model of high demand, low wages, and externalities associated with clusters of related industries can explain the dispersion of advertising agency employment across states. Other factors affected the industry growth rate within states. Consistent with Jacobs and Porter but contrary to Marshall, Arrow, and Romer, competition, but not specialization, enhanced growth. In accord with Porter (1990), growth increased with buyer cluster size. Diversity had no effect on growth. Despite improvements in telecommunications and transportation reducing effective distances, location still matters.     

Sectoral Shocks and Metropolitan Employment Growth

In this paper, we study the sources of industry employment growth in each of five metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The objective is to understand the relative importance of aggregate disturbances versus local sectoral shocks in generating observed employment fluctuations at the MSA level. The empirical evidence presented in this paper derives from structural vector autoregressions (SVARs), estimated for each of the five MSAs. Estimations use monthly employment data covering nine one-digit industrial categories for the period 1951:1–1999:8, as well as two variables that capture the influences of aggregate (i.e., national) shocks on MSAs. We find that within-MSA industry shocks explain considerably more of the forecast error variance in industry employment growth than do aggregate shocks. Sectoral shocks account for between 87 and 94% of the 36-month-ahead forecast error variance. Among individual local sectors, shocks to MSA-specific government, manufacturing, and service sector employment growth are the predominate sources of variability.     

基于行业分布的我国省域展览业结构分异特征及其优化路径

基于行业分布视角,通过构建定量测度模型,分析了我国省域层面展览业的部门结构特征及其区域专业化水平。研究发现:当前我国省域展览业发展呈现规模与结构"错位脱节"状态,省域展览业行业部门分布集中程度差异明显,中西部地带行业部门结构明显优于东部;全国展览业在不同行业部门的区位熵呈现"农业>服务业>重工业>专项展览>轻工业"的递减规律,省域展览业在不同行业部门的专业化程度存在明显差异;省域展览业地区相对专业化水平差异明显,全国存在三类展览业部门专业化阵容区域。最后从构筑特色展会品牌、延长展览产业发展链条、调控展览业空间布局、提升展览经济内涵质量四方面提出了我国展览业行业部门结构优化的建议。     

人力资本与产业结构转化对经济增长的效应分析

本文根据两部门经济增长模型,以1995~2009年中国29个省际数据为对象,运用分位数回归的方法考察了人力资本、产业结构对中国经济增长的影响。理论分析和实证研究均表明：人力资本对经济增长有显著的促进作用,且在条件分布的不同位置,这种作用存在明显差异;产业结构从传统产业向现代产业的转化也是经济增长的重要推动力;人力资本的经济增长效应受产业结构的影响,与人力资本相适应的产业结构转化可以优化人力资本的配置,提高人力资本的产出效率,有助于经济持续、快速地增长。     

论国际垂直专业化分工的工资效应——基于浙江制造业数据的实证分析

在全球生产网络化的背景下,中国制造业广泛参与国际垂直专业化分工,对劳动收入分配产生了重要影响。本文以外向经济较为发达的浙江省为例,测算了浙江26个制造业部门参与垂直专业化分工的程度,并就垂直化专业分工对浙江制造业工资收入的影响进行了实证分析。研究结果显示:浙江制造业部门参与国际垂直专业化分工总体上提升了行业工资收入水平;垂直专业化分工对制造业工资收入的促进作用在资本密集型行业中比在劳动密集型行业中更大。本文最后就如何提升浙江制造业工资水平、缩小行业工资差距提出了相应对策建议。     

技术创新领域的选择、专业化与区域经济增长

选择正确的技术领域并实现专业化是各地区在创新驱动发展战略下的重要课题。为考察技术专业化对经济增长的影响，利用专利数据，构建两种不同领域的技术专业化指标，设计包含交互项的空间计量模型以及中介效应模型，检验不同类型的技术专业化对经济增长的作用机制和溢出效应，为区域技术创新重点领域的选择提供参考。结果表明：技术专业化对经济增长的作用会受技术创新能力高低的影响，在一定的创新能力条件下，专业化于自身优势产业所对应的技术领域对经济的正向作用会被削弱，而专业化于具有高技术机会的技术领域对经济的正向作用会被更有效地发挥，因此不同的创新发展阶段应选择不同的技术专业化模式。此外，高机会技术领域的专业化具有正的空间溢出效应。     

The measurement of employment diversity for states and regions

This paper uses an index to measure the level of employment diversity at the state level of two periods spanning two decades. The index is based on aggregating employment at eight major sectors. The findings indicate a movement toward more specialization in the latter period (2000) as compared to an earlier period (1970s).