2011年上半年乘用车市场运行分析及预测

2011年上半年,我国乘用车产销增速大幅回落,价格水平持续下跌,供大于求的市场矛盾日益加剧。增速下滑的主要原因,是鼓励性政策的集中退出和前两年部分需求提前释放。导致今年需求增长后劲不足。目前乘用车市场有短期自我调整的要求,这种调整是必要的,未来几年我国乘用车需求依然处于较快增长阶段,针对本轮调整国家不宜出台大力度的刺激政策,而应着眼于调整和优化长期制约乘用车市场增长的制度与机制,为市场良性发展夯实基础。     

中国长期煤炭需求:影响与政策选择

本文采用协整技术研究中国煤炭需求的长期均衡关系,估计出中国煤炭需求的长期收入弹性、价格弹性、结构弹性以及运输成本弹性;预测未来长期煤炭需求并分析其对环境、煤炭供给和煤炭价格的影响;模拟解释变量不同增长率下煤炭需求的演变并给出政策选择。中国高速经济增长是煤炭需求增长的主要原因。GDP是引导煤炭需求的原因,但煤炭需求不是引导GDP增长的原因,这也说明了将GDP作为解释变量的合理性。变量模拟得出的政策选择是工业结构的调整,即便是微调,也会对煤炭需求有很大的抑制作用;煤炭出厂价格的变动对煤炭需求变动的影响不太大,但煤炭需求对运输成本相当敏感,因而煤炭的最终价格对煤炭需求影响很大。     

我国私家车需求量的计量分析

随着我国经济的发展与人民生活水平的提高,私家车需求数量处于逐年增长的态势。国家公路等基础设施的建设与修缮也使得居民对私家车的需求量有了提升。市场在逐渐发展壮大。然而,我国私家车的普及程度并不高,市场还有很大的潜力有待挖掘。本文拟在通过实证分析来确定影响私家车需求量的因素。通过模型检验与修正,进而对我国私家车拥有情况进行定量描述与分析,对私家车数量的增长情况与市场前景作出预测,并相应提出政策建议。     

后钢铁工业时代钢铁企业发展战略抉择——兼论钢铁企业板材产品发展战略

2005年4月，《钢铁产业发展政策》（下称《政策》）在国务院常务会议上经审议获得原则通过，并于7月通过国家发改委向全社会发布施行。这一指导钢铁产业发展的纲领性文件的发布施行，标志着我国钢铁行业开始步入集约发展的后钢铁工业时代。《政策》的影响和后钢铁工业时代钢铁行业发展的新变数，一直备受关注，本文将着重探讨《政策》对板材行业发展的影响以及我国钢铁企业对板材发展战略的抉择。     

我国动漫产业发展现状及政府政策的供需分析

动漫产业被誉为“2l世纪知识经济的核心产业”,具有巨大的发展潜力和空间。目前我国动漫产业正处于前期的发展阶段,因此需要政府政策在文化、经济发展中的引导、协调和服务。本文通过结合我国动漫产业发展的现状,具体分析我国动漫市场在健全市场体系、整合产业链、培育专业性人才及保护知识产权等发面的政策需求,并主要概括出政府为促进动漫产业发展的政策供给状况,指出现有政策在市场环境培养、资金扶植、知识产权保护及人才培养方面的不足,并针对其缺陷进行完善政策的设计。     

2011年我国乘用车市场面临的新形势及政策调整方向

2010年我国乘用车市场保持较快增长,多项刺激政策起到关键的支撑作用。随着刺激政策的逐步退出,预计乘用车市场在2011年将进入调整期,需求将保持较低的增速,供大于求的市场矛盾将更加突出。在新的形势下,我国乘用车消费的相关政策须进行适当调整,将短期政策与长期政策相结合,具体目标与多元目标相结合,合理限制与鼓励发展相结合,从而降低市场运行的风险,促进产业持续健康发展。     

我国房地产市场调控政策影响力度评估与未来取向研究

面对房地产市场过热和房价上涨过快的现象,我国政府出台了一系列房地产市场调控政策,而且逐渐趋向频繁和严厉,表达了我国政府调控房地产市场的决心和信心。影响我国房地产市场价格的因素主要有基本消费性需求、改善性需求、投资性需求、投机性需求等四个方面,其中后两者是引发房价过快增长的重要因素。目前,我国房地产市场泡沫程度不一,对此应高度重视,严加调控,并认真执行,加强监管,如此才能使我国房地产调控政策切实收到实效。     

2011年上半年我国消费品市场形势分析及趋势预测

2011年上半年,我国社会消费品零售总额累计85833亿元,同比增长16.8%,消费需求对经济增长的贡献率为47.5%,国内消费品市场规模继续增长,增速回落,汽车、房地产相关商品销售增速放缓。下半年,抑制通胀的政策导向将有利于提升消费者信心,促进消费品市场增长。应着力促进城乡居民增收,完善市场秩序,保证农产品供给,稳定价格,创新鼓励消费政策。多渠道促进消费品市场平稳较快发展。     

全球金融风暴下中国房地产业的周期性调整及政策选择

该文从全球视角分析了金融风暴通过心理和预期、资本流动和收入增长等渠道对中国房地产业产生的负面影响。提出在宏观经济周期性下行时期,由于市场预期悲观和房地产市场的特殊性,房地产市场难免出现房地产投资增长放缓、房地产交易萎缩、房价波动或下跌、商业性房地产贷款增速减慢等周期性市场调整现象,以及收缩性的羊群行为。因此,政府要对上一轮的房地产市场宏观调控政策做一次全面的梳理,彻底调整抑制房地产市场的政策,选择合宜的土地政策、金融政策、税收政策、产业政策,降低房地产市场的交易成本,以扩大住房消费为突破口,刺激消费需求,从而扩大内需和促进经济增长。     

建立和完善保障性租赁住房体系的思路研究——基于国际比较的视角

文章首先分三个阶段简单描述了我国住房政策的变化及阶段性特征,并通过第三阶段的政策分析指出我国"福利性"、"保障性"、"政策性"租赁住房供应不足,国民购房需求过剩等市场发展现状。其次介绍和比较了美国和日本以保障对象、住房存量、市场参与度等为参数的不同政策选择,并借鉴其经验分析了我国现有政策选择与发达国家的距离及存在问题。最后在阐述建立和完善"保障性"租赁住房供应政策的必要性的基础上,提出了政策实施的具体建议。希望能为我国的住房保障体系建设提供参考。     

劳动无限供给下中国的经济波动

本文构建了一个劳动力长期供给具有无限弹性的总供求模型,模型的核心特点是长期总供给曲线不是垂直而是向右上倾斜.根据该模型,本文认为,农业部门存在剩余劳动而使非农部门具有无限弹性的劳动供给,是改革开放以来中国经济波动出现"软着陆"、"紧缩增长"和"高增长低通胀"等现有理论难以解释的特殊现象的根本原因,并使经济波动对就业的影响主要表现为劳动力转移速度的波动而非城镇失业率的变化.     

Long-run estimates of money demand: new evidence from East Asian countries and the presence of structural breaks

Conventionally, the money demand function is estimated using a linear regression of the logarithm of money demand on a number of variables. In this article, we aim to estimate the long-run properties of money demand specification for a number of East Asian economies and within a panel framework with the presence of structural breaks. Various country-specific coefficients are allowed to capture inter-country heterogeneities. Consistent with theoretical postulates, it is found that (a) the demand for money in the long-run positively responds to real income and inversely to the interest rate spread, inflation, the real effective exchange rate and the US real interest rate; (b) the long-run income elasticity is greater than unity; and (c) both the currency substitution and capital mobility hypotheses hold. The empirical findings in this article can provide useful policy guidelines to the East Asian countries’ central banks in their quest for price stability. If one of the primary objectives of these countries is to minimize price instability, they should avoid creating unnecessary disequilibrium in the money market, while the employment of cointegration with the presence of structural breaks clearly recommends to central banks to use the supply of money to attain price and macroeconomic stability.     

Long-run estimates of interfuel and interfactor elasticities

Meta-analyses of interfuel and capital-energy elasticities of substitution show that elasticity estimates are dependent on the type of data − time series, panel, or cross-section − and the estimators used. Econometric theory suggests that the between estimator might generate the best estimates of long-run elasticities but no existing estimates of elasticities of substitution have used it. Alternatively, Chirinko et al. argued in favor of estimating long-run elasticities of substitution using a long-run difference estimator. We provide estimates of China’s interfuel and interfactor elasticities of substitution using the between and long-run difference estimators. To address potential omitted variables bias, we add province level inefficiency and national technological change terms to our regression model. The results show that demand for coal and electricity in China is very inelastic, while demand for diesel and gasoline is elastic. With the exception of gasoline and diesel, there are limited substitution possibilities among the fuels. Substitution possibilities are greater between energy and labor than between energy and capital. The results are quite different to some previous studies for China but coincide well with the patterns found in meta-analyses for long-run estimates of elasticities of substitution.     

Estimation of a German money demand system – a long-run analysis

This study presents a multivariate analysis of the stability of long-run relationships between variables that influence the conduct and transmission process of the German monetary policy. The initial VAR comprises the variables real money M3, real GNP, the inflation rate, a long-term and a weighted short-term interest rate. A multivariate approach has been chosen, as this allows for more than one cointegration relationship and to test restrictions on the cointegration space. In contrast to most other studies on German monetary policy, three stable and economically plausible cointegration relationships are obtained simultaneously within the framework of the Johansen procedure: a money demand relationship, a long-run Fisher effect and a long-run relationship between the short- and the long-term interest rate. It is apparent that the structural break of German reunification can be modelled incorporating dummy variables in the model. First version received: October 1996/final version received: July 1997     

Revisiting the US money demand function: an application of the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds test for a long-run relationship

In this article, we examine the issue of a levels relationship and stability of the US money demand function over the period 1959:01 to 2004:02. We use the Lagrange multiplier structural break unit root test and the bounds testing approach to a long-run relationship in levels of the variables, namely real money demand, nominal interest rate and real income. We find greater evidence for a long-run relationship in levels and stability of the US money demand function when we use M2 as a proxy for money demand. However, we find little evidence for a long-run relationship between M1 and M2 with their determinants for the recent period, spanning the last decade or so.     

Residential water demand responds asymmetrically to rising and falling prices

This paper econometrically estimates residential water consumption in Germany between 2007 and 2013 based on a panel of almost 3000 supply areas. In particular, the analysis distinguishes periods of rising and falling water and sewage water prices. The short-run (long-run) price elasticity is estimated at around 4.2% (13%), but water demand appears to respond asymmetrically to rising and falling prices. When prices are rising, the short-run (long-run) price elasticity is around 6.5% (17%). When prices are falling, the short-run price elasticity is not statistically different from zero, and the long-run price elasticity is estimated at around 12%. Additional results illustrate that employing average prices instead of marginal prices results in substantially overestimating the price elasticity. These findings are particularly relevant for utilities and regulators planning to alter the tariff structure towards a higher fixed fee and a lower volumetric fee.     

Long-run money demand in OECD countries: what role do common factors play?

This article examines the long-run money demand function for 11 OECD countries from 1983Q1 to 2006Q4 using panel data. The distinction between common factors and idiosyncratic components using principal component analysis allows for the detection of cross-member cointegration and the determination as to whether national or international sources are responsible for the non-stationarity of money and its determinants. Indeed, the finding that the common factors are I(1) while the idiosyncratic components are I(0) indicates that cross-member cointegration may exist and non-stationarity in the variables is primarily driven by common international trends. Furthermore, it is found that the impact of income on money demand is positive, whereas it is negative for the interest rate, exchange rate and stock prices. Except for the income elasticity of money demand, all estimated long-run coefficients are larger for the common factors of the variables than for the variables themselves. This article provides evidence that the exchange rate is an important determinant of money demand, whereas the results for the stock prices are ambiguous. Finally, the results of a panel-based error-correction model suggest that several domestic money stocks converge to a common international equilibrium relationship between the common factors.     

The demand for money in Austria

In this paper, the demand for real money M1, M2, and M3 is estimated for Austria over the time period 1965–96. The modelling takes place within the framework of a small vector autoregression. To estimate the demand for money, two-equation error-correction models are constructed, which contain the short-run dynamics and the long-run economic equilibrium. It is found that a stable money demand exists for all monetary aggregates. The long-run equilibrium of M1, after accounting for a structural break in 1979, can be characterised as a classical type of money demand, with no interest rate effects and an elasticity of one for real GDP. In the case of M2 and M3, we find a unit coefficient on income and a significantly negative influence of a long-term interest rate. The statistical properties of the estimated short-run money demand equations – considering in-sample and out-of-sample tests – are generally very good. First version received: October 1996/Final version received: April 2000     

A cointegration analysis of gasoline demand in the United States

Time-series estimation of gasoline demand elasticities often does not take into account the possibility of nonstationarity in the underlying data, which may render the parameter estimates spurious. Studies have shown that the time trending variables used to explain gasoline demand could be difference stationary and therefore, may require cointegration analysis to assess the relationship among the trending variables. In this work we use the cointegration technique to derive long-run and short-run demand elasticities of noncommercial gasoline consumption using time-series data for the USA from 1949 to 2004. We also attempt to incorporate the presence of a structural break in the data generation process of the time trending variables. Our results show that the consumption of gasoline and lifetime income have a long-term stable relationship after the second oil shock of 1978. Prior to the first oil shock of 1973, no such long-run relationship could be established through cointegration.