The impact of foresight on environmental science and technology policy in the Netherlands

Globalisation, high tech development and environmental issues have made policy makers aware again of the possibilities of future studies for policy making. However, the lack of systematic knowledge about their impact is a major obstruction to a proper use of future studies. Especially since future studies no longer claim to predict the future, but are seen as a strategic tool for improving strategic interaction between key actors and for anticipatory policy making, insight in the dynamics of future studies is indispensable. In this article we review four future studies in the Netherlands with an eye on their methods and related impact on research in sustainable technology. Although in content the four studies were quite similar, they were complementary in linking research strategies and policy objectives.     

Cultural predispositions,specific affective feelings,and benefit–risk perceptions: explicating local policy elites’ perceived utility of high voltage power line installations

Policy controversies concerning the prioritized expansion of the National Energy Grid in the U.S. have drawn our attention to examine the variations of benefit–risk perceptions associated with High Voltage Power Line (HVPL) installation among policy elites, a critical conceptual segment of political actors constituting the U.S. energy policy subsystem. From early psychometric studies to more recent explorations of the emotional aspects of risk appraisal, specifying the role of affective feelings in understanding risk judgment has been a subject of much previous research. This paper seeks to advance such an affect-driven approach in an attempt to account for social psychology-based factors by systemically investigating how specific emotions and personally held intrinsic values and beliefs jointly influence individual-level perceptions of HVPL benefits and risks, relying on recent original survey data containing individual responses from 420 anonymous community leaders and key local policy-makers in the state of Arkansas. Building upon previous research rooted in the dual process model of risk judgment and appraisal tendency framework, a particular emphasis is given to identifying the triadic relationship between culturally biased value predispositions, specific emotional dimensions of affect heuristics, and perceptions pertaining to various aspects of HVPL risks and benefits. Through the implementation of the causal mediation analysis, we found that the effect of cultural value predispositions (i.e. egalitarianism, individualism, hierarchism, and fatalism) on perceived benefits and risks associated with HPVL installation among policy elites is partially mediated by specific affective feelings (i.e. fear, anger, happiness, and excitement) in very distinct ways. We conclude this paper by suggesting that a more robust understanding of the cognitive mechanism of benefit–risk perceptions, particularly those of individuals with more opportunities and resources to shape related policies, promises valuable insight for the development of more effective risk communications and better policy-making practices.     

Directions in scenario planning literature - A review of the past decades

This paper provides a systematized overview of patterns in the scenario planning literature published in the last decades. Recently, scenario planning has enjoyed a revival, apparent in the ‘boom’ in published research on the matter. Consequently, a major issue that needs to be addressed is how to organize the literature along precise lines. A number of reviews that describe the current status of the body of literature and knowledge on scenario planning have made attempts to respond to such requirements. These studies agree that systematizing the existing literature is a necessary step in developing the field. This paper aims to contribute to this purpose. The review of the academic literature here conducted is thought to be useful for both academics and practitioners. For researchers, this systematic overview will be constructive not only in providing an analysis of the directions of published research but also in setting up a research agenda for the future. For managers and practitioners, it provides a clear outline of firm-related articles and discusses their contribution from a managerial point of view. It also raises awareness with regard to future analytical methods, and in particular, to scenario planning and its potential contribution to the competitiveness of firms. The research was carried out under the research Project Enterprise of the Future of the University of Aveiro.     

THE EFFECT OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF CASES ON JUDGMENTAL CONSENSUS

This paper examines the effect of the distribution of cases on the level of consensus of auditor judgments by the use of a simulation study. The results show that the level of consensus is higher on extreme cases and that overall levels of consensus are affected by the distribution of cases included in a study. Some additional insights into previous research are made and some suggestions for the design of future studies are outlined.     

复式簿记起源历史环境新论

在以往对复式簿记起源问题的研究中,尚存在一定误区,并因此而引发长期争论,以致至今众说纷纭,莫衷一是。鉴于该项研究是世界会计史研究中的重大课题,故本文刻意对其作进一步研究。文章揭示了研究误区的成因,并相应阐明更正意见;指出以往研究中存在的片面性,并通过考证,具有针对性做出补充。文章还对复式簿记起源时期的环境重新进行了审视与系统研究,既从经济方面,也从政治方面;既针对起源环境问题作出全面考察,也阐明环境对未来复式簿记在全球发展的影响规律。尤其是在新证中,以史实证明了文艺复兴中的簿记复兴是深刻影响复式簿记发轫的重要环境要素,从而在一个十分重要的方面弥补了以往研究之不足。     

Some theoretical and methodological suggestions for studies examining accountants' professional judgments and earnings management

The objective of this paper is to provide theoretical and methodological suggestions to guide future research on the controversial topics of accountants' professional judgments and earnings management. Based on an evaluation of prior research, this paper provides four suggestions. First, it is suggested that a focus on the influence of personality variables is likely to provide sharper insights into judgments of individuals. Two relevant personality variables have been selected for this paper, namely, Construal of Self and Regulatory Focus Theory. Both Construal of Self and Regulatory Focus Theory have been, primarily in psychology literature, proven as valid and relevant for judgments, decisions and behavior. Second, prior literature conducted studies on earnings management and ethical issues to a large extent in the United States, often assuming that findings are generalizable and transferable to other countries. Given the importance of contextual factors and of gaining insights from global perspectives, the examination of nations with different contextual environments and particularly of countries in which ethical issues have not been rigorously examined, is suggested. Third, prior research has largely relied on simplistic unidimensional ethics measures that are unlikely to capture the complexity of accountants' professional judgments. It is suggested that a combination of a unidimensional measure and ‘Multidimensional Ethics Measure’ (MEM) provides richer insights into judgments. Fourth, this paper also suggests measuring “holier-than-thou” perception bias. “Holier-than-thou” perception bias means that individuals consider themselves as more ethical than their peers. This bias is important because it may foster an unethical organizational culture. Some of the suggestions included in this paper may provide useful guidance for future studies examining accountants' professional judgments and earnings management.     

Past and future of backcasting: The shift to stakeholder participation and a proposal for a methodological framework

This paper deals with the past, present and future of backcasting. After having reviewed the origin and developments since the 1970s, it is concluded that several varieties can be distinguished and that a shift has been made to broad stakeholder participation and towards a focus on realising follow-up and implementation. A methodological framework for participatory backcasting is proposed consisting of five stages and four groups of tools and methods that can be applied and are necessary in such a framework, while different type of goals are possible. The paper reports on two cases in which participatory backcasting was applied, the Novel Protein Foods project at the Sustainable Technology Programme in the Netherlands and the Nutrition case study of the Sustainable Households (SusHouse) project. The paper concludes that these have resulted in broad stakeholder involvement, sustainable future visions, analyses and construction of follow-up agendas, but that follow-up and impacts are quite different. A research agenda is proposed to compare and evaluate backcasting studies and their impacts after a couple of years, while the future of participatory backcasting is also briefly discussed.     

税率锚定效应与企业投资决策

已有文献证实了高管过度自信等非理性因素对企业投资决策的影响,但尚未有文献研究锚定心理在投资决策中的作用。税收政策连续性不足会使得企业实际税率充满不确定性,高管在预测未来实际税率时很可能会非理性地锚定当期的高税率,进而产生税率锚定行为。本文研究这种非理性的税率锚定行为对企业投资决策的影响,结果发现:企业投资决策中存在显著的税率锚定行为,对高税率的锚定显著降低了企业未来的投资支出,且内在锚效应(纵向对比)强于外在锚效应(横向对比)。进一步地,我们发现经验更丰富的高管有助于缓解投资中的税率锚定效应,但更大的税率波动性加剧了这种效应,最终降低了公司业绩和价值。本文研究表明,控制投资中的税率锚定行为,有利于提高投资效率和企业价值,同时也表明保持宏观税收政策连续性有利于促进企业健康可持续发展。     

The Relation Between Patent Citations and Tobin's Q in the Semiconductor Industry

The market value of a firm is largely determined by the expected returns to the firm's tangible and intangible assets. However, accounting data generally excludes intangible assets. Financial variables which are constructed in part from accounting data, such as Tobin's Q, are thus biased. If measures of intangible capital are successful in explaining variation in Q, then a case can be made for incorporating such measures into future research. In high technology industries, such as the semiconductor industry, valuing a firm's intangible assets requires the valuation of its technological capital. Past studies have relied heavily on simple patent counts and research and development expenditures to quantify the technological component of a firm's intangible assets. This paper examines the ability of measures of intangible capital to explain variation in Q and considers an additional data source, patent citations. We find that stock variables created from citation data contain relevant information about the market's valuation of intangible assets.     

Comparison websites in UK retail financial services

Comparison websites have become a fundamental part of UK retail financial services. These websites appeal to both buyers and sellers. They offer buyers the ability to enter their details once and then quickly compare a range of products, usually ordered by price. For sellers, they offer a supply of potential customers who have refined their needs through the comparison process, and are thus more likely to complete a purchase. This paper analyses the role of comparison websites, drawing on case studies from three major providers of UK financial services comparisons. The paper also analyses the criticisms made of comparison websites, draws out implications for practitioners and consumers and outlines areas for future research.     

Carbon Accounting: Challenges for Research in Management Control and Performance Measurement

Carbon reduction programs and corporate emissions reporting have expanded rapidly across firms in response to climate change and global warming. This development is partly driven by institutional demands and partly by value creation considerations. The consequences of these developments for management accounting and control (MAC) are not clear, despite anecdotal evidence that suggests an increasing effort to incorporate carbon accounting into traditional decision and reporting processes. The reasons for this lack of clarity are the disproportionate focus in practice on carbon disclosure, compared to a small number of empirical studies, and the absence of an academic debate in this novel area from a MAC perspective. This paper seeks to stimulate such an academic debate by reviewing the extant literature, identifying key theoretical and empirical shortcomings of extant academic research, and outlining some directions for future studies on carbon accounting. These directions are inspired by more established MAC research that may help to guide and organize MAC research in the emerging and exciting field of carbon accounting.     

Social predictions, institutional design and prestige loops: Richard Henshel’s contribution to futures studies

The article is both a contribution to the intellectual history of the field and a reminder that future studies have always been concerned not only with the epistemics and the cognitive procedures regarding the future but also with the impact of ideas on the very unfolding of the future. Cases when social predictions, by the mere fact of being made public, change the situations they have predicted, are an important challenge for social theory and institutional design. Richard Henshel dedicated an important part of his work to their study. The paper starts by mapping the conceptual contours of the problem. Then it outlines the ways in which various authors have dealt with its challenge, thereby putting the distinctiveness of Henshel’s unique contribution in a clearer perspective. The paper continues by presenting Henshel’s main arguments as they were developed around the key concept of ‘prestige loop’ as well as some of the implications of the fact that social predictions and ‘prestige loops’ not only challenge the way we understand the relationship between social theory and its practical applications, but also the ways we understand the very nature of applied social science and its relationship with futures studies.     

Observations of supervisors and an actuarial research student on the qualitative research process

We report on lessons and insights concerning an interview-based, qualitative research thesis undertaken by an honours year university student in actuarial studies, who had no previous experience with qualitative research. Motivations and the need for research of this nature are provided in depth. Observations are presented on key areas of the research process, from the perspective of both research student and supervisors. This informs future students who may be considering qualitative research, who have not previously engaged in this approach. It also informs supervisors in predominantly quantitative disciplines who may be unfamiliar with some of the nuances of interview-based approaches.     

The first fifteen years: a personal view of the early history of the WFSF (1967-1982)

This article is based on a personal account on the early history of the WFSF. The author emphasizes that this organization was in many ways more a social movement than a professional organization, since it functioned as a critique of the emerging future think tanks, which were so closely linked to established powers. Moreover, from its beginning, the Federation attempted to be a real global organization and not only an affair of the so called developed world. It succeeded in having conferences in all continents.In that early period the Federation had given explicit support to individuals and institutions in the communist countries of Central/Eastern Europe, where future research institutions were to some extent ‘havens in a heartless world’. The Federation has also promoted international courses in future studies for graduate students, especially in Dubrovnik. Many of the participants later on became active (board) members of the WFSF. Finally, in those days the Federation promoted a number of research projects on the study of the future, producing an impressive number of books and journals. In short, the WFSF is a club to be proud of.     

A Review of Big Data Research in Accounting

The impending fourth industrial revolution has enhanced the role of big data analytics in today’s business practice. Consequently, many now consider big data as the most strategic resource in business to the extent that organizations that fail to utilize it may become competitively disadvantaged. Following these developments, questions have been raised about the future of the accounting discipline, especially in terms of how it can continue to add value to organizations. While some scholars have attempted to address this question, it remains an abstract concept requiring further investigation. Therefore, this study conducts a systematic literature review to determine the status of accounting research on big data analytics and provides avenues for further studies. By conducting co-occurrence network analysis on 52 peer-reviewed articles published from 2010 to 2020, three broad themes emerged, entailing big data implications for accounting practice, education, and research design. A further examination of the themes revealed few empirical studies on the phenomenon, as conceptual research dominates the field. Although external audit implications of big data are widely discussed, other accounting domains (e.g., managerial accounting and taxation) are underexplored. Therefore, future studies may focus on the implications of big data on variables such as performance measurement, information governance, tax behavior, curriculum design, and pedagogy.     

Prediction of company failure: Past,present and promising directions for the future

The quest for a reliable tool that can predict company failure has been pursued with keen interest both by academics and practitioners for a more than a century. This paper presents a survey of the key papers published on bankruptcy prediction from a critical perspective and discusses models published in the academic literature, are frequently cited and considered to have made a significant contribution to the literature on business failure. This study provides an overview of the significant models, conducts a critical discussion of these models highlighting their virtues and drawbacks. The paper concludes with the author outlining the basic concept of a "Value Erosion Model", where ‘value’ is defined as the future potential of a firm and argues that such a model can address some of the significant drawbacks associated with existing models, offering interesting avenues for future research in the development of an academically robust practically applicable bankruptcy prediction model.     

Research in accounting for income taxes

This paper comprehensively reviews the Accounting for Income Taxes (AFIT) literature. We begin by identifying four distinctive aspects of AFIT and briefly covering the rules surrounding AFIT. We then review the existing studies in detail and offer suggestions for future research. We emphasize the research questions that have been addressed (most of which relate to whether the tax accounts are used to manage earnings and whether the tax accounts are priced by equity market participants). We also highlight areas that have not received much research attention and that warrant future analysis.     

Some reflections on the high expectations as formulated in the Internet Bubble era

Since the breakthrough of the Internet to the broader public in the 1990s, expectations of the converging information technology, telecommunication and media industries and technologies as a catalyst for economic growth and social welfare have been high. Futures scientists were involved in predicting the future of these technologies during the Internet bubble. In this paper, we use a meta-analysis approach to examine how well futures studies have been able to describe future reality. We limit our studies to futures research in the ICT and Internet domain that were published between 1995 and 2000. Because the number of relevant studies can hardly be called impressive, we selected a number of available futures studies that were conducted by official government bodies and individual companies, based on various approaches, ranging from technology forecasts [1] to highly creative visions [2], and from predictions [2] to essays [4]. These studies were carried out by Dutch as well as by international organizations. Based on a framework we developed for the analysis of business models, we wanted to see whether technological drivers, regulatory/policy issues and market development as well as competitive behavior, on the input side, and the way value for customers and providers is provided, on the output side, were discussed. Our analysis made it clear that, looking back with what we know now about business models, futures studies and recently developed tools like road mapping, developments in futures studies have made tremendous progress since the Internet Bubble. However, here is still room for more rigor when it comes to methodology and reporting. More recently, there has been a promising integration of scenario analysis and business model approaches that opens new avenues for futures studies.     

年度报告及时性的经验研究评述和未来研究

上市公司年度报告的及时性是会计信息质量的重要制约条件,更为监管部门和投资者所关注。在投资者权益保护成为市场主题的趋势下,如何更为细致地对相关的经验研究加以归纳和分析,理清内在的研究脉络,便成为当务之急。本文在评述年度报告及时性的经验研究的同时,在时点界定、计量方法和框架安排等方面提出了相应的改进,为未来研究和监管政策的出台提供了有益的参考。