Evaluating spatial and temporal variation in agricultural output elasticities in Turkey

This study evaluates spatial variation in the relationship between agricultural output and input use across Turkey. The potential impact of the national agricultural policy reform introduced in 2001 on the spatial variation in agricultural output elasticities across the country was explored. By applying a spatial production function to the province‐level data in 2000 and 2007, spatial heterogeneity in the variance of provincial total factor productivity and the input factor‐output elasticities was identified across the country. Results show that the disparities in agricultural activities and geographic conditions affected return from input factors. Empirical findings from a spatial spillover model also suggest that changes in the input factor‐output elasticities varied significantly across Turkey between 2000 and 2007, after the policy reform. Results suggest that future policy reform that recognizes regional comparative advantage through understanding the geographic heterogeneity of the agricultural sector is important for enhancing Turkey's agricultural output.     

基于生态系统服务改进的中国各地农业生态效率研究

[目的]为提高全国农业资源利用率,推动建立资源节约型与环境友好型的可持续"两型农业",对中国农业生态效率展开研究发现,农田生态系统服务是农业生产的重要产出,但在当前生态效率研究中未得到充分体现。文章通过量化农田生态系统服务价值,有利于权衡农产品供需关系,更好以农田生态系统给人类社会带来的福利为目标来开展农业生产。[方法]文章将生态系统服务价值作为期望产出之一,将全国划分为东部地区、东北地区、中部地区和西部地区的4个农业效率研究区域。运用非期望产出数据包络分析方法,计算2014年中国30个省(市、自治区)的农业生态效率,并分析其主要影响因素。[结果](1)中国农业生态效率整体水平良好,平均值为0.945,在空间上表现为东部东北西部中部的空间分布格局。(2)影响全国农业生态效率的关键因素为土地投入、机械投入、化肥投入和水资源投入。农业生态系统服务指标与农业生态效率呈正向相关。土地、农药、劳动力、机械、水资源、化肥、农膜和能源投入、农业产值及碳排放均与之呈负向相关。其中农药投入是最为显著的抑制因子,控制农药投入是提升全国农业效率核心因素。(3)中国农业生态效率空间分异格局是多层影响因素叠加而成,中国农业生态效率损失的原因主要在于资源要素消耗的过量与农业碳排放过多。[结论]中国农业生态效率整体上发展较好,但各省市的农业生态效率水平存在较大差异,仍有上升的空间。从投入产出冗余角度来看,目前中国农业生态效率损失的原因主要在于资源要素消耗的过量与农业碳排放过多。在发展中着重加大区域对农业土地的开发投入、推广机械科学技术、减少化肥等污染物投入与提高水资源的利用效率,发展用水技术,保障农业的可持续发展。     

新一轮收储制度改革导致玉米减产了吗：基于DID模型的分析

2016年中国开始了新一轮玉米收储制度改革,其间经历了临时收储政策取消以及玉米生产者补贴制度建立两个阶段。利用2010~2017年全国31个省份的省级面板数据,基于DID设计,本文分析了此次收储制度改革对玉米生产的影响。本文研究结果表明,收储制度改革对玉米生产的影响具有较强的时间异质性。在收储制度改革的第一年,改革对玉米总产量、播种面积和单位面积总投入均有很强的负向影响;在收储制度改革的第二年,虽然改革对玉米单位面积总投入依然具有较强的负向影响,但是对玉米总产量以及播种面积则呈现出正向影响。其原因在于,对玉米生产者来说,改革第一年没有配套支持制度,玉米种植收益下降;而在改革第二年,以生产者补贴为主的配套支持制度建立,玉米种植收益上升。     

华北地区休闲型农业园区空间分布特征及影响因素分析

［目的］近几年，华北地区休闲农业发展取得长足进展，研究其空间基本分布特征，剖析其发展影响因素，对把握其休闲农业分布现状，找准发展华北地区休闲农业关键入手点具有重要意义。［方法］以2012—2017年华北地区评定的680个休闲农业园区（企业）为样本，采用地理信息系统（GIS）对休闲型农业园区的空间分布特征进行简要分析，并利用层次分析法（AHP）探究华北地区休闲型农业发展的影响因素。［结果］（1）华北地区休闲型农业园区呈集聚分布，且集中分布程度极高，空间分布不均衡，主要集中分布在北京，其次为天津、河北、山西，内蒙古分布最少； （2）影响华北地区休闲型农业发展排名前3位的因素是公路密度、农林牧渔业总产值、城镇居民可支配收入； （3）目前城镇居民生活水平显著提高，游客消费水准已成为影响休闲型农业产业发展的重要要因素但并非决定性因子。［结论］休闲型农业是一个新产业，影响华北地区休闲农业发展的重要因素还是政府以及投资者，游客的可意愿度、经济能力已经不是休闲型农业产业发展的决定性因素。要发展休闲农业产业要从增加对投资者的政策导向以及增加园区（企业）的可到达性，将公路密度适当向郊区拓展入手。     

Measuring agricultural total factor productivity in China: pattern and drivers over the period of 1978‐2016

The Chinese agricultural sector has experienced a substantial increase in total output since dramatic reforms were introduced in 1978. This paper uses the index method to measure agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) for China’s crop and livestock industries, based on the gross output model from 1978 to 2016. We construct production accounts for the industries using input‐output relationships for the 26 main agricultural commodities and commodity groups, which account for over 90 per cent of the total agricultural inputs and outputs. The results show that China’s agricultural TFP grew at a rate of approximately 2.4 per cent a year before 2009, which is comparable to the main OECD countries and is double the world average. TFP growth accounts for approximately 40 per cent of output growth, suggesting that input growth was the main driver of output growth in the past. However, average productivity growth slowed down after 2009 though it has gradually recovered since 2012. The slowdown reflects the emerging challenges to existing farm production practices in Chinese agriculture, suggesting the need for further institutional reform.     

The Evolving Structure of Chinese R&D Funding and its Implications for the Productivity of Agricultural Biotechnology Research

China’s research and development (R&D) policy has changed considerably over recent decades, and great changes occurred in 2006 when the main programme objective of China’s R&D changed from the 863 Programme and 973 Programme to the National Science and Technology Major Project. One topic that has drawn extensive attention is whether the investment reform improved R&D productivity in China. Using a unique panel dataset from 160 universities, this paper examines the effect of the investment reform on productivity improvement in China’s agricultural biotechnology sector. We use a panel count data model with a dynamic feedback mechanism to model the knowledge production process. Strong evidence indicates that the investment reform greatly contributes to knowledge output production in China’s agricultural biotechnology sector. We also find that the input quality is more important than the absolute quantity; human research capacity exhibits the greatest contribution to the output of patents; past knowledge accumulation helps produce more patents; and entry barriers to patent production exist in China’s agricultural biotechnology sector. Moreover, the patent explosion in China may have been largely caused by improvements in the human capital input quality.     

财政支出对我国农业增长的多途径影响

本文采用变系数生产模型,将全要素生产率中涉及各生产要素质量提升的部分剥离,从而识别财政支出通过不同途径影响农业增长的内在机制,并利用省级面板数据(1978-2015年31个省份)和县级面板数据(1993-2010年2495个县),从宏观和中观视角实证考察和比较了各改革阶段财政支出通过不同途径对农业产出的影响及其长期总体回报率,从而为政府合理分配农业财政支出提供参考。研究发现,每一单位当期农业财政支出的增加,能提高0.4个单位的当期农业产出,其中,通过全要素生产率途径的影响占到一半,通过提升化肥和农机质量的影响各约占四分之一,而通过改变劳动力和土地质量的影响很小。此外,财政支出的长期投资回报率达250%,加大农业财政支出,这将为农业持续增长提供新动能。     

Agriculture’s Inter‐industry Linkages,Aggregation Bias and Rural Policy Reforms

As agricultural policy reform and its effects have become increasingly territorialised, analyses that attempt to explain or predict impacts need to be both more localised and to identify spill‐over effects. Local and regional general equilibrium approaches have become increasingly popular because they can extend predictions of policy shocks obtainable from partial equilibrium sectoral models to identify the wider effects. However, agriculture is usually described as a single sector in input–output accounts, whereas policy shocks that affect constituent commodities with differential impacts will have inter‐industry effects that are different to those implied by average input–output coefficients. Regionalisation of aggregated input–output tables adds further to these difficulties. The objective of this study is to develop a practical method for dealing with these problems. It describes the theoretical basis of aggregation bias and shows how it can be measured, in two contrasting case study regions in the UK and Sweden. Having established that this is a significant issue, a simple but effective procedure is demonstrated, based on additional information on variable costs, which transforms policy shocks from a direct change in agricultural output to that transmitted to the suppliers of inputs. This method provides an impact close to that which could be calculated if the general equilibrium system had indeed been disaggregated, and supports use of this approach in impact studies where insufficient time or funding are available for complete disaggregation of an agricultural sector’s regional accounts.     

作物种植专业化程度对农业生态效率的影响

目的 从作物种植专业化程度视角考察农业种植结构变化对农业生态效率的影响以及农业技术的作用,为农业可持续发展提出可行的路径。方法 文章首先从理论上阐述了作物种植专业化和多样化对农业产值、农业污染和农业生态效率的影响以及农业技术在其中发挥的作用。并运用2004—2018年中国30个省（市、自治区,不含港澳台西藏）的面板数据,实证检验了作物种植专业化和多样化对农业产值、农业面源污染和农业碳排放以及农业生态效率的影响。结果 （1）作物种植专业化显著促进了农业产值增加、农业面源污染和农业碳排放减排和农业生态效率的提高,作物种植专业化水平每增加1个单位,农业产值将增加1.6%,农业面源污染和农业碳排放将减少0.001个单位,农业生态效率将提高0.009个单位;（2）作物种植多样化对农业面源污染和农业碳排放减排有显著的促进作用,但对农业产值和农业生态效率的提高有负面效应,作物种植多样化水平每增加1个单位,农业面源污染和农业碳排放将减少0.072个单位,农业生态效率将降低0.699个单位;（3）当一般性农业技术水平高的时候,作物种植专业化对农业产值有显著的正向影响;当低碳型农业技术水平高（大于临界值）的时候,作物种植专业化和多样化均有利于农业产值的增加和农业面源污染、农业碳排放的减排。结论 各区域在积极研发高产激励型农业技术的同时不能忽视低碳型农业技术的提高,并积极促进作物种植专业化水平的提高,适度降低作物种植多样化水平。     

精准扶贫政策对城乡居民收入差距的影响研究——以山西省为例

[目的]实施精准扶贫政策以来,我国共减少贫困人口6 853万人。在脱贫攻坚取得重大进展的背景下,对比政策实施前后城乡居民收入的变化,对于揭示精准扶贫政策的作用具有重要意义。[方法]以贫困范围广、贫困程度深的山西省为对象,基于2010—2017年精准扶贫政策实施前后的统计数据,采用双重差分模型研究不同贫困程度县(区)城乡居民收入差距变化。[结果]精准扶贫政策的效果主要为:贫困县的城乡居民收入差距缩小幅度约为非贫困县的3倍,而其中国家级贫困县的收入差距缩小幅度约为省级贫困县的2倍;共同趋势检验和安慰剂检验的结果验证了模型的稳健性。对比采用最小二乘法(OLS)得到的精准扶贫政策效果,揭示出如果忽略城乡居民收入差距随时间的变化,则会高估精准扶贫政策效果约1.5～4倍,再次证明模型的有效性。通过引入控制变量探讨政策以外的其他影响因素,发现城镇化水平、经济发展水平、第三产业占比、人均农业产值有助于缩小城乡居民收入差距,人均土地状况会扩大城乡居民收入差距,固定资产投资和消费水平的影响不显著。[结论]精准扶贫政策对于缩小城乡居民收入差距具有显著效果,且对深度贫困地区的影响更明显。     

The incidence of agricultural policy on the land market in Poland: Two-dimensional and multilevel analysis

Research has shown that the reform of the CAP which broke the link between subsidies and production (the decoupling reform) has had little effect on farmers’ demand for land under the SPS (Single Payment Scheme) system. For this reason, in the conditions of the SPS, there is petrifaction of the structure of agricultural land, and an upward trend in prices on the market for agricultural land should not be expected to continue in the long term. Under the conditions of the SAPS (Single Area Payment Scheme), which applies in the EU-12 new Member States, the position in the market for agricultural land is different. However, most research carried out in Europe relates to the SPS system, where marginal changes in the value of land are identified as a result of the incidence of agricultural policy, as well as quantitative and qualitative attributes of particular properties. Under SAPS, these issues have not been sufficiently investigated. The authors have attempted to fill that gap, constructing a two-dimensional and multilevel econometric model for land prices in a leading agricultural region of Poland based on a sample of 653 transactions in the years 2010–2013. The aim is to determine how policy, as well as various quantitative and qualitative features, including location factors, affect the prices of land under SAPS. The results indicate, among other things, the key importance of the functional type of rural areas – properties in agrotouristic areas gained 43% higher prices on average than those in agricultural areas. Another finding of interest is that LFA and agro-environmental payments decapitalise the value of land.     

山西省农业生态效率县域差异及影响因素分析

[目的]研究山西省农业生态效率的县域差异及其影响因素分析。[方法]文章以山西省各县（市、区）为研究对象，引入超效率分析法，构建SSBM-ESDA模型，评估山西省各地农业生态效率；同时选择Tobit模型，分析其主要的影响因素。[结果] 2011—2020年山西省农业生态效率值基本处于0.3～0.5，整体处于较低水平。107个县（市、区）中，优秀等级17个，均值为1.412；良好等级4个，均值为0.911；中等等级20个，均值为0.677；较低等级38个，均值为0.479；低等级28个，均值为0.349。县域农业生态效率等级以较低和低为主，总占比达61.68%。农业生态效率较好的县（市、区）集中分布在西部省际沿线区域，形成以“忻州—太原—吕梁”为重心的西部高效率区。2015—2020年全省农业生态效率略有提升，并在空间上进一步加强了“忻州—太原—吕梁”的西部高效格局，但整体水平仍较低。人均农业增加值、农业规模化水平对农业生态效率有正向影响；农业受灾率、机械化密度、农村家庭经营收入、工业化水平对其有负面影响。[结论]现阶段山西省农业生态效率整体水平偏低，县域发展水平差异明显，西部沿省际线地区...     

近30年来我国粮食产量波动影响因素分析

[目的]根据粮食产量波动特征,从自然因素、科技因素(物质装备)、社会经济因素和农业生产条件等方面对粮食产量的影响进行量化分析,为科学合理地制定农业政策,保障我国粮食安全提供理论依据。[方法]文章利用HP滤波法分析1978—2010年我国粮食产量波动特征,并采用灰色关联与层析分析相结合的综合评价法定量分析不同波动周期各影响因子对我国粮食产量波动的影响度。[结果](1)改革开放以来,我国粮食产量经历了完整的6个波动阶段,平均波动周期为6年;(2)除1994—2000年,各波动周期的粮食产量受科技因素的影响最大,且影响日益显著,影响度从1978—1981年的37. 0%增加到2006—2010年的48. 3%,其中,有效灌溉面积的影响增大趋势最为明显,其次是农业机械总动力,化肥施用量的影响呈减弱趋势;(3)社会经济因素对粮食产量的影响呈波动性增加的规律,2006—2010年影响度达到24. 9%;(4)农业生产条件对粮食产量的影响在20世纪80年代初期与科技因素基本持平,此后,除1994—2000年,与科技因素的影响度差距越来越大,到2000—2006年对粮食产量的影响度仅为16. 6%,其中,耕地面积的影响度下降最多,到2006—2010年,影响度仅为1. 1%;自然因素对粮食产量波动的影响最小,且较为稳定,除1985—1988年影响度达到24. 3%,其余波动周期均在8. 7%~12. 4%之间,2006—2010年影响度为10. 2%。[结论]完善农田水利灌溉体系,加强对农业机械指导的"重科技"举措比单纯增加后备耕地数量、改善应对气候变化与自然灾害能力的"靠资源"发展更为有效;加大农田水利投入,完成灌区续建配套与灌排泵站更新改造是目前最重要的发展方向。     

基于面板数据的省会城市居住地价的差异及成因研究

研究目的：基于2000 — 2006年面板数据，分析省会城市居住地价的差异、主要影响因子及其影响程度。研究方法：混合OLS估计方法、固定效应模型和随机效应模型。研究结果：（1）中国省会城市居住地价存在明显的时空差异，2005年及以后地价增长明显，且东部地区地价与中、西部地区的差距进一步拉大；（2）将城市间居住地价的影响因素分为全国宏观经济因素、区域整体差异因素和城市个体因素三个层面，并基于引致需求理论，构建更具实效性的城市居住地价影响因子体系；（3）建成区面积、城市人均GDP、国际旅游收入、2004年8月31日之后土地供应方式的重大转变（正向关系）和房地产开发投资（负向关系）对居住地价有显著影响。研究结论：面板数据模型是中国城市间地价问题定量分析的一个有效工具。     

基于内容分析法的集体建设用地流转政策演进分析

研究目的:总结中国农村集体建设用地使用权流转政策的演进趋势。研究方法:采用内容分析法和概括总结方法,以59份相关政策为样本,从出台时间、纵向层级和文本横向构成等方面构建分析框架,将政策文本内容进行编码统计获得定量化数据。研究结果:(1)政策数量由1978—1994年间的合计4项演变为1995—2014年间的年均3项,国家、省级及市县层面的分别占32.20%、11.86%和55.94%,涉及17省份;(2)政策形式多为通知、意见、管理办法等,效力层级较低;(3)政策内容经历了由禁止、严格限制再到探索规范流转的过程,涉及流转条件、方式、程序,交易主体、地价、收益及税费,法律责任及监督管理等方面。研究结论:现有政策体系不够完善、缺乏细则,难以有效应对新形势下集体建设用地流转的复杂性,提出科学开展政策评估、加快修改相关法律、出台国家层面指导意见及加强监管力度等建议。     

基于第二次全国R&D资源清查的农业科技资源配置效率分析

[目的]农业科技资源配置效率的高低在一定程度上决定着农业科技系统的运行效率,而农业科技系统的运行效率状况对提高农业科技资源的高效利用、增强农业科技创新能力、加快促进农业现代化进程有着重要的影响。文章基于2009年第二次全国RD资源清查数据,对政府部门属农业科研机构的配置效率进行测算,并分析其规模报酬以便为相关决策部门提供参考。[方法]通过构建农业科技资源配置效率评价的投入产出指标体系,选取包含科技人员、科技经费及科技成果在内的6个投入产出指标,运用数据包络分析方法 (DEA)中的超效率模型测算全国32个省份政府部门属自然科学和技术领域研究机构(含直辖市)的综合效率、纯技术效率、规模效率。[结果]全国农业科研机构科技资源技术效率平均值为0.581,科技运行效率还有较大的提升空间。按机构学科领域分,水产学学科的效率值最高(TE Score=2.867 9);按机构服务的国民经济行业分,渔业的效率值最高(TE Score=1.901 1)。各省(市、区)农、林、牧、渔业农业科研机构的综合运行效率值大于1的有天津、吉林、贵州、宁夏、北京、辽宁。规模效率的平均值是0.686,规模收益递减的省(市、区)占87%。[结论]DEA非效率地区所占比例较大,技术效率低于全国平均值的地区占56%,地区规模效率的提升可以依靠加大科研投入来实现。农业科技资源配置的结构需要进行调整,在合理调控种植业科研机构的发展规模的同时优化其科技人员结构。通过开展农业科技计划绩效评价、组建农业科技创新联盟来促进农业科技协同创新。同时应根据农业科研机构的不同类型提出相应的管理措施,以便实现分类指导和科学管理。     

碳中和目标下中国耕地绿色低碳利用的区域差异与影响因素

研究目的：揭示碳中和目标下中国耕地绿色低碳利用的区域差异与影响因素,为实现耕地资源可持续利用和农业高质量发展提供参考。研究方法：超效率SBM模型、核密度估计和面板Tobit回归模型。研究结果：（1）2000—2019年,中国耕地绿色低碳利用水平整体上呈现提升趋势,粮食功能区耕地绿色低碳利用水平也表现出不同程度的上升态势。（2）核密度估计结果显示,中国耕地绿色低碳利用水平演进过程存在明显的区域差异特征。（3）从全国层面来看,科技投入水平和农民生活水平对耕地绿色低碳利用具有显著正向影响,自然条件、财政支农水平、工业化水平和农业机械化水平对耕地绿色低碳利用具有显著负向影响;从粮食功能区来看,不同因素对耕地绿色低碳利用水平的影响方向与程度具有明显的差异。研究结论：中国耕地绿色低碳利用存在明显的区域差异特征,可通过“强化区域耕地生产要素高效配置”“完善相关政策工具设计”“加强农业技术研发与应用”提升耕地绿色低碳利用水平。     

The impact of grain self‐sufficiency regime on regional welfare and agricultural productivity in China

The nineties’ agricultural reforms in China that were aimed at deregulating the agricultural market eventually resulted in a huge drop in agricultural production and a high rate of inflation in agricultural input prices; this apparently motivated the government to introduce the grain self‐sufficiency regime in 1998. We examine how and to what extent this reform affected the productivity and welfare of grain farmers in China at the regional level. We find that the price regulations that destroyed the incentive to exert more effort adversely affected the growth in agricultural productivity but contributed to the growth in farmers’ welfare. Although the price regulations resulted in short‐term improvement in welfare across all the regions, in the long run such regulations can potentially result in larger drop in agricultural production because of its negative impact on the incentives to produce more.     

我国农业生态经济系统耦合协调发展研究

[目的]探索我国农业生态系统与农业经济系统的协调发展规律,为中国农业生态与农业经济健康有序协同发展的政策制定提供智力支持。[方法]通过构建农业生态系统与农业经济系统综合评价指标体系,运用熵值法确定各指标权重,基于2004—2017年全国统计数据,借助耦合协调度模型,计算出农业生态系统和农业经济系统的发展得分,再分析农业生态系统与经济系统发展的耦合协调关系。[结果]2004—2017年中国农业生态与经济发展综合水平整体均呈现上升趋势,农业生态系统得分始终高于农业经济发展得分;两系统的耦合度处于较高水平,耦合协调度逐年上升,协调程度从中度协调过渡到极度协调。[结论]加快创新驱动发展,发展“产品品质高、经济效益高、生态环境友好”的高质量农业,优化财政支农机构、重点支持具有生态正向外部性的项目。加强环境规制力度,以绿色发展路径实现农业生态与经济的协同。     

Agricultural land protection in China: a case study of local governance in Zhejiang Province

China's rapid economic development following the 1978 reforms has resulted in significant economic, social and environmental change. One consequence of this change has been the accentuation of an existing trend of agricultural land loss and degradation. Although the 1978 reforms and their impacts have been subjected to considerable scrutiny, relatively little research has been directed towards the relationship between the evolution of local government structures and practices and the implementation of agricultural land protection policies. This paper presents an analysis of this relationship in Huzhou Municipality, Zhejiang Province. Zhejiang Province is situated on the eastern seaboard and exhibited the highest average annual per capita growth in China between 1978 and 1995. Huzhou Municipality is a growth centre in the northern part of the province. A synthesis of the factual knowledge and perceptions of 40 key-informants suggests that despite the development of a comprehensive legal framework for agricultural land protection, the interpretation of policy at local levels continues to permit the loss of agricultural land (and attendant environmental costs) to be traded-off against increased economic growth. This suggests a need to re-evaluate the role of local levels of government in China with respect to agricultural land protection issues; to look as much at the ways policies are implemented as at policies themselves. The devolution of administrative responsibility in China and the increasing influence of powerful local economic interests will provide an impetus for such a re-focussing of research at local levels.