Dynamic land use and land cover changes and their effect on forest resources in a coastal village of Matemwe,Zanzibar, Tanzania

Recent land cover change estimates show overall decline of tropical forests at the regional and global scales caused by multiple social, cultural and economic factors. There is an overall concern on the prevailing land use practices, such as shifting cultivation and extraction of forest materials as agents of forests losses, but also new, emerging land uses are threatening tropical forests. Understanding of the long-term development and driving forces of forest changes are needed, especially at local levels where many decisions on forest policies and land uses are made. This paper addresses the importance of such information for improved estimates of forest dynamics by studying local level land cover and land use changes during the last 50–70 years in the Eastern African tropical island of Zanzibar, Tanzania. The paper discusses the role of traditional and new land uses mainly subsistence farming, tourism and government interference through tree planting, in the long-term development of the forests at the village level. The material for the study is gathered from the interpretation of archival maps and aerial photographs combined with contemporary digital aerial photographs. The analyses are based on the mapping, spatial sampling and spatio-temporal change trajectory analysis (LCTA) of forest land cover, forest land uses and settlement patterns with GIS and statistics. Six distinct forest land cover change trajectories were identified and these illustrate dynamic and heterogeneous nature of the forests. Closed forest cover has dominated throughout due to cyclical land use patterns, but over 70% of the land area has been continuously transforming between closed, semi-open and open land cover conditions. Land use turnover rates indicate that hardly any forest areas are left untouched from the forces, which remove and re-establish forest vegetation in the long run. Land cover and land use change trajectories are spatially fragmented in the studied landscape. Majority of forest loss-gain dynamics is caused by shifting cultivation, while forest losses are most dramatic along the coast, where traditional and new land uses meet and land uses pressures are highest. The study suggests that landscape change trajectory analyses, where contemporary and historical information on land uses and land cover changes are spatially linked, can provide valuable aspects into local level forest land use planning and management strategies. For the case study, the findings suggest the following key forest management strategies for consideration: (1) establishment of a protected forest/scrubland in participation with the local stakeholders, especially the farmers, (2) promotion of areas for permanent agricultural practices, while simultaneously introducing management controls in the traditional slash-and-burn farming areas, and (3) promoting new livelihood opportunities for the farmers, who have traditionally been dependent on forest resources, meanwhile introducing alternatives for fuel wood for cooking.     

The incremental construction land differentiated management framework: the perspective of land quota trading in China

Construction land plays a vanguard role in China’s rapid urbanization process. However, confront with massive loss of farmland resources, the highly centralized land-use planning and management system established by the central government in 1998 stipulates that the red line of 1.8 billion mu of farmland should be guarantee to ensure food security. A series of land management system innovations such as “the replacement of basic farmland in different places”, “the compensated supplement of farmland in different places”, and “the land conversion quotas transregional transaction” in Zhejiang province have received increasing attention, under the premise that neither dissipating the economic development efficiency nor breaking the constraints of various planning quotas. Inspired by the “three-phase” efficiency improvement based on the concept known as the “adaptive efficiency”, this article first proposes the inherent policy shortcomings as incalculability, inseparability, and uncontrollability. Then, adopting the mathematical model derivation and economic analysis tool, we demonstrate that the “general allocation + competition allocation + rewarded allocation” of new construction land quota allocation scheme has improved the three-stage Pareto efficiency. Relying on the network analysis of the cross-regional trading in Zhejiang province, the “time hotspot”, “regional hotspot”, Siphon effect, price fluctuation and inequality of opportunity are also observed in the process of trading. The authorities should play a quasi “wedge-like” blocking role in due course. It is therefore suggested that a differentiated management scheme should be adopted considering the variance in regional resource endowments and social ecosystem. This paper expected to shed light on improving construction land-use efficiency for China and other similarly placed developing countries.     

Proposed algorithm for the identification of land for consolidation with regard to spatial variability of soil quality

The quality of soil is one of the most significant factors having a real impact on the potential level of agricultural crops. Therefore, it is a significant element shaping the profitability of agricultural production in the specific area. Familiarity with spatial variability of soil quality classes in respective voivodeships has an impact on planning the development of agricultural areas and effective allocation of money to rural spatial restructuring. This element also provides important information in the process of consolidation works programming which takes place at the regional government level. This data is characterised by very long usability due to a small number of changes referring to classification of land entered into the land and building survey. Data on the quality and suitability of soil in the analysed area was acquired from the analysis of data from the land and building survey. Analyses were carried out in 3 poviats of Lublin voivodeship located in the eastern part of Poland covering an area of 501 132.9 ha, split into 610,160 plots. This paper presents an algorithm designed by the author for identifying areas in which land consolidation works should be performed, including its practical application using the adopted sample. The algorithm identifies areas characterised by the highest soil quality, which makes it possible to indicate areas where land consolidation work should first be undertaken.     

Temporal and spatial variability of agricultural land loss in relation to policy and accessibility in a low hilly region of southeast China

The temporal and spatial patterns in land use change in a low hilly region in southeast of China was analyzed from maps of converted agricultural land for 1999–2006. The factors driving farm land conversion was analyzed using logistic regression models. The amount of agricultural land loss varied temporally, and the spatial distribution of converted agricultural land patches decreased from low to high altitudes in the study area. Analysis using logistic regression models showed that good accessibility sped up the conversion of agricultural land to other uses, the elevation of a parcel lowered the risk of conversion, and agricultural land conversions are highly correlated with its adjacent or neighboring parcels’ land use, with the probability of being converted decreasing as the distance to nearest construction land increases. In addition, land use policy, especially the land use regulation policy issued by the central government decreased the agricultural land loss, and the more stringent regulation on cultivated land conversion lowered the possibility of conversion from cultivated land to other use.     

Prioritising land to be preserved for agriculture: A context-specific value tree

In Belgium as in many other countries, agricultural land is under pressure for development of other land uses. This paper presents a method for setting priorities for preservation of land for agriculture. The method is based on a participatory approach through which a value tree is formulated. This results in a list of criteria to define farmland value, which is explicitly linked to the objectives for farmland preservation. The value tree allows the list of criteria to be determined in a structured and consistent way. The participatory process contributes to the development of a shared vision on farmland preservation. The approach also incorporates context specificity, as shown by its application for farmland preservation in Flanders.     

生态退耕背景下黄河流域耕地变化与农业生产和生态环境关系研究

目的 分析生态退耕背景下黄河流域耕地的时空变化特征,探讨黄河流域不同区域耕地变化与农业生产和生态环境的相互关系,旨在为黄河流域农业绿色发展和耕地利用政策提供借鉴。方法 文章基于2000—2020年黄河流域连续土地利用数据,利用面板格兰杰因果检验和双变量空间自相关量化耕地变化与农业生产、生态环境之间的动态因果及空间交互关系。结果 （1）2000—2020年黄河流域年均减少耕地69.53万 hm²,还林还草是耕地主要减少去向,2020年和2004年是退耕还林还草高峰年,中上游是退耕还林还草重点区;（2）从格兰杰因果检验来看,下游地区退耕还林还草对农业生产和生态环境没有显著影响,上游地区长期退耕还林还草对农业产值增加有利,中游粮食产量和生态系统服务供给低的地区退耕还林还草更多,中上游生态退耕对生态环境有显著促进作用;（3）从空间自相关结果来看,下游地区退耕与农业生产和生态环境的空间分布不具有一致性,黄土高原南部和太行山附近退耕还林还草与生态环境指标呈高—高集聚,鄂尔多斯高原地区退耕与农业产值呈小范围高—高集聚。结论 退耕还林还草是黄河流域耕地变化的重要原因,退耕还林还草规模与农业生产和生态环境之间的空间关系异质性明显,且在部分区域存在因果关系,不同区域应当针对具体问题提出不同用地策略。     

Customary land allocation,urbanization and land use planning in Ghana: Implications for food systems in the Wa Municipality

Food insecurity remains persistent in the Global South due to constraints in food production capacities and intricate land tenure systems that stifle investment in agriculture. In the urbanized regions, uncontrolled urbanization and non-compliant land use systems have further worsened the potentials for urban food production. This research is based on a case study of the Wa Municipality in order to assess the influences of customary land allocation and peri-urbanization on land use planning and foods systems in Ghana using explorative and narrative research approaches. The study identified that customary stakeholders responsible for allocating such lands in the Wa Municipality were indiscriminately converting large tracts of hitherto agricultural lands to urban land uses. Statutorily prepared land use plans are hardly enforced and the planning priorities are on residential and commercial land uses that command higher land values to the detriment of agricultural lands. Weak institutional linkages also characterize the mandated planning and land administration institutions, with a planning system that is reactive rather than proactive in addressing development control challenges across the country. There is the need for planning authorities to adopt participatory land uses planning together with customary landholders and educating them on the essence of comprehensive land use planning approaches. Based on the findings, local governments need to partner landowners to identify and reserve high potential agricultural land for sustainable urban food production.     

Compliance of land cover changes with municipal land use planning: Evidence from the Lisbon metropolitan region (1990–2007)

In the past few decades, urbanisation has become a major phenomenon in European cities, thus representing one of the key human land cover changes with socio-economic and environmental impacts. In the Lisbon metropolitan region it is estimated that 17% of natural and farmland have been transformed into artificial areas. Since the end of 1990s, specific EU guidelines have been issued to contain urban sprawl and preserve agricultural land. Spatial planning in Portugal obviously is integrating these assumptions into the statutory land-use master plans. But what is the performance of this land use planning system regarding land cover evolution itself? Based on the Lisbon metropolitan region (LMR), one of the major areas of urban growth in Portugal, we examine spatio-temporal land cover patterns between 1990 and 2007 by integrating cross-matrix analysis, spatial metrics, and gradient analysis. Additionally, we overlay these land cover dynamics with municipal master plans that regulate land development in order to assess the compliance levels of this land-use regulatory system. Results indicate that: artificial areas are growing by coalescence and/or by scattered development along an urban–rural gradient; agricultural land is reducing and fragmentation is increasing to enlarge peri-urban spaces; there are high levels of conversion of agricultural land into urban land in protected areas, thus showing a lack of compliance to the land use regulatory system visible in the existing gaps between the original land-use assignments of the master plan and the actual developments.     

The role of land use conversion in shaping the land cover of the Central American Dry Corridor

The Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) is a trans-border region characterized by climatic and ecological continuities. It is expected to experience rising aridity and severe hydro-climatic events due to climate change. Subsistence agriculture and other rural livelihoods to which land cover is central are widely practiced in this impoverished territory of approximately eleven million people.The CADC’s land cover was profiled to determine: a) how it differs from Non-CADC areas, and b) the role of land use in shaping these differences. Spatial autocorrelation analysis using satellite data showed that forest cover is a third less prevalent in the CADC than in the Non-CADC while the share of mosaic vegetation and mosaic cropland is nearly double. A naturally prevalent cover type in the CADC, tropical dry forest (TDF), has been largely eliminated.The significantly lesser proportion of forest and greater percentage of coverage consistent with agriculture and ranching implicate land use conversion, specifically deforestation for agricultural expansion and cattle ranching, in shaping CADC land coverage. The process began in the mid-1800s when small-scale agriculturalists migrated to the region followed by large-scale export crop and beef production, primarily for international markets. Deforestation peaked after WWII, concluding by the 1990s with the conversion of most woodlands. Similar patterns now threaten forests along the Caribbean coast.Traditional land use practices cannot sustain local communities or preserve the resource base, thereby contributing to rural outmigration. Adopting sustainable practices and promoting livelihoods strategies leading to forest regeneration will be fundamental for CC adaptation in the CADC.     

The consequences of changes of ownership for agricultural land use in Central European countries following the collapse of the Eastern Bloc

One of the key factors shaping contemporary land use in Central and Eastern Europe has obviously been change of ownership, with the collapse of the nationalised sector and restitution of farmland to owners giving rise to such changes. The work presented here therefore considers the main directions to ongoing changes in land use in the above region, under the influence of the processes of privatisation affecting the agricultural sector. Specifically, analyses conducted entailed assessment of the influence ownership processes have exerted on the area and structure of agricultural land, the size structure characterising farms and the situation on the market for land. The work took in five countries of the former Eastern Bloc, i.e. the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.     

规划情景约束下山地丘陵区土地利用空间格局模拟*——以重庆市綦江区为例

[目的]以重庆市綦江区为研究对象,通过模拟预测2010—2020年规划调控影响下研究区的土地利用空间格局变化特征,以期为目标情景下土地利用规划的空间实施提供技术支持。[方法]文章通过构建Dyna-CLUE模型分别模拟研究区在自然增长和规划约束引导下的土地利用空间格局,并对照自然情景进而分析规划约束下土地利用空间格局的表现特征。[结果]比较AutoLogistic模型与传统Logistic模型回归结果发现,除建设用地外,其他地类的ROC值都有显著提升;对比两种情景模拟结果发现,到2020年,研究区内耕地、农村居民点、未利用地较自然情景显著减少,林地、园地显著增加,城镇建设用地增长规模较自然增长情景减少171.86hm~2;规划情景约束下,2010—2015年研究区地类转移以耕地转建设用地为主,2015—2020年以耕地转林地为主,耕地转建设用地次之,再次为农村居民点转耕地。[结论]Dyna-CLUE模型模拟中,运用添加自相关因子的AutoLogistic模型代替传统Logistic模型进行空间驱动力分析,能够显著提升模型模拟精度;规划约束下,退耕还林、农村居民点复垦和农业结构调整等工作的开展是耕地减少、林园地显著增加,建设用地规模得以控制的重要原因;退耕还林成果在规划约束情景中得到较好体现,表明规划目标对于引导土地利用空间格局定向变化有重要作用,但是丘陵山地的耕地减少态势也需得到足够重视,建议推进耕地产能建设从而协调生态保护与粮食安全间的用地需求。     

How feasible is regional integration for reconciling land use conflicts across the urban–rural interface? Evidence from Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei metropolitan region in China

Competition among different uses for land is becoming acute under the process of urbanization, and conflicts related to this competition are becoming more frequent and more complex. This article presents a methodology for confronting this issue. By applying an integrated framework, we explore the implicit role of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Regional Integration (BRI) policy in land use conflicts by focusing on the urban-rural interface, and try to address the research question: “How feasible is BRI for reconciling land use conflicts across the urban-rural interface?” An original structure of the analysis is developed based on the identification of three types of conflicts, namely, conflicts over land use structure, conflicts over land conversion and conflicts over landscape pattern. According to the interactions and relationships among these conflicts, we define broad categories of land use conflict areas. Indeed, these conflicts are all related to the unplanned use of agricultural land reserves, which competes with other more immediate uses, and the over-exploitation of land resources caused by unsustainable urban practices. This policy is clearly a critical objective for optimizing the land use structure. It, however, fails to reconcile the conflicts over land conversion and landscape pattern, especially for considerable agricultural land conversion to non-agricultural uses, and low-density development pattern with mixed residential and industrial land uses. Hence, alternative strategies involving public participation, spatial equity, rural revitalization, land-use system reform, and new type of urbanization, can be identified as viable solutions for land use conflict management, which may be complementary to regional integration. The findings of our paper may also contribute to the policy debate on BRI concerning land use planning and regional sustainability.     

The interrelations of land ownership,soil protection and privileges of capital in the aspect of land take

The novelty of this study lies in the analyses of legislation concerning land use policies by examining the specific boundary between land ownership and land take. The basic motive was that the European Commission (EC) withdrew the Soil Framework Directive (SFD) in 2014 following the objections of certain Member States (MS) who countered that as most lands are privately owned, they should not fall under the remit of public governance. Since the withdrawal of the SFD land take is an issue receiving more attention. The legal content of ownership rights has been subjected to constant debate in the context of land-use policies and planning practices, which raises the questions of who decides how the land can be used and whether administrative authorities give priority to non-agricultural uses. Our study seeks to explore these issues through the lens of property law by comparing different legislations on access to land on three levels of policy implementation: the EU, the national, and the local levels. MS legislations are highlighted through the example of Hungary in two aspects: (1) regulation regarding Access to Land and Land Ownership Rights (ALOR), and (2) legislation and results of the LANDSUPPORT decision support system concerning Land Take Changes (LTC). We designed figures to demonstrate how policymakers can use the new LANDSUPPORT platform to show the gaps and inconsistencies among the above aspects. We found that the legislative regulations concerning private land use to achieve soil protection objectives remain the weakest link in the environmental protection legislation of the EU. Anxieties concerning built-in legal guarantees on each of the studied levels actualise our research. Currently, global land management is not on the political table although common European legislation might be able to preserve land for agricultural use.     

Socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation: A comparison between different land use planning schemes and policy implications

Forest loss and fragmentation, which generate various negative environmental and ecological consequences, have become widespread phenomena across the globe. Motivation to investigate the underlying drivers is essential for land use planning and policy decision making. This paper characterizes forest loss and fragmentation from 1979 to 2014 in the Ningbo region (China) using multitemporal satellite imageries and a set of landscape metrics (area-weighted mean patch area, edge density, area-weighted shape index, Euclidean nearest neighbor distance, effective mesh size and total area); and then quantifies the responsible socioeconomic drivers (economy, social activities, science and technology, culture and policy, demography) under different land use planning schemes (urban and non-urban) using multivariate linear regression. Results show that the two zones present identical trend of intensifying forest loss and fragmentation but differ in changing magnitude and speed. More specifically, forest loss and fragmentation in the non-urban planning zone occurs at a significantly higher pace and magnitude. For the urban planning zone, population pressure, economic growth and fruit consumption are the primary drivers of forest loss, while forest fragmentation is mainly driven by economic openness, cash crop consumption and environmental protection consciousness. For the non-urban planning zone, income increases, fruit consumption and infrastructure development are the primary drivers of forest loss, while infrastructure and tourism development are the major drivers of forest fragmentation. Besides, forest loss and fragmentation in the two zones are both heavily subjected to land use policy. The variance partitioning analysis highlights that the policy driver is the most influential one and economic driver also has strong effect on forest loss and fragmentation in the urban planning zone. For the non-urban planning zone, the influence of policy driver is the strongest and social activity is also very powerful. These results provide compelling evidence that land use planning fails to play an efficient role in protecting forest resources in the Ningbo region. The failure should be attributed to several issues associated with land use planning and forestry governance that widely exist in China. We finally propose some pertinent implications and suggestions for China’s land use planning and forest policy. This study is believed to advance the understanding of the socioeconomic drivers of forest loss and fragmentation. It therefore provides some new insights in land use policy.     

Effects of land lease policy on changes in land use,mechanization and agricultural pollution

Land fragmentation has restrained the development of Chinese agriculture with the application of agricultural machinery. Meanwhile, agricultural pollution has caused serious problems with development. To address these problems, China's government proposed a new farmland lease policy and built larger farms beginning in 2013. However, changes in land fragmentation may also have unexpected problems for Chinese agriculture. This study investigated the effects of these changes on changes in land use, the application of machinery and agricultural pollution. We analyzed a developed area (in the fields of both agriculture and industry) and studied the decision-making habits of farmers in the area. An agent-based model was proposed with the same decision-making habits as in the real world. The results indicated that land lease increased agricultural profits very little in Jiangsu, China. Meanwhile, the application of land lease policy increased pollution. To alleviate pollution and increase profits, a new policy for large automatic protection machinery (i.e., large spraying machinery) should be introduced by governments simultaneous with land lease policy. Farmers could realize greater profits through the introduction of land lease policy and high-efficiency machinery. The sustainable development of agriculture in Jiangsu requires the integration of these government policies.     

Co-ordination of land exploitation,exploitable farmland reserves and national planning in China

Land exploitation, as an important strategy to mitigate farmland loss and stabilize grain production, has been adopted to compensate farmland loss due to rapid urbanization in China. Bounded by the limited capacity and obvious spatial variations of national farmland reserves, it is essential to arrange land exploitation activities timely and reasonably. In this study, we propose an indicator for the status of regional land exploitation, the Exploitation Degree, to facilitate an overview of land exploitation programs in China at both provincial and prefectural levels based on project data from 2006 to 2012. To further our understanding of the regional features of land exploitation activities, we employ the Lasso model to identify and quantitatively assess influencing factors on land exploitation. Our study shows that: (1) contemporary land exploitation practices in China are significantly inconsistent across exploitable farmland reserves. Some areas are greatly over-exploited and such irrational land exploitation has been persistent; (2) related national land plans designed to guide land exploitation efforts centered on resource-rich regions and critical areas do not function as intended. Therefore, we suggest that China⿿s land exploitation policy shall be improved by reconsidering the orientation of land exploitation policy, coordinating land exploitation activities with productivity improvements and eco-system protection, and enhancing the power and scope of the plans in controlling and guiding land resource management.     

Simulating the impacts of future land use change on soil erosion in the Kasilian watershed,Iran

Predicting soil erosion potential is important in watershed management. A rapidly growing Iranian population and climate change are expected to influence land use and soil sustainability. In recent years, northern Iran has experienced significant land use changes due to internal migration along the Caspian coast and conversion of forests and rangelands. Considering the effect of these changes in the future, the purpose of this study is to forecast land use patterns and investigate soil erosion scenarios using the Revised Universal Loss Equation and Markov Cellular Automata. Data from 1981 to 2011 were used as a baseline to estimate changes that might occur in 2030. The results reveal that the mean erosion potential will increase 45% from the estimated 104.52 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ in the baseline period. Moreover, the results indicate that land use change from forest area to settlements will be the most significant factor in erosion induced by land use change, showing the highest correlation among erosional factors. Projecting land use change and its effect on soil erosion indicate that conversion may be unsustainable if change occurs on land that is not suited to the use. The method predicts soil erosion under different scenarios and provides policymakers a basis for altering programs related to land use optimization and urban growth. Those results indicated the necessity of appropriate policies and regulations particularly for limiting land use changes and urban sprawl in areas of unfavorable soil erosion risk factors.     

Simulating land use changes under alternative policy scenarios for conservation of native forests in south-central Chile

In this study, we combined policy analysis with landscape change modeling to simulate outcomes of alternative forest conservation instruments proposed by opposing policy coalitions. In 1992, concern over rapid land conversion to timber plantations (Pinus radiata and Eucalyptus spp.) in Chile gave rise to a protracted policy process resulting in the 2008 Native Forest Law (NFL), which subsidizes reforestation and management with native forest. To date, however, NFL has had little impact on native forest conservation. To understand how the policy process that created the NFL shaped its outcomes, we employed the Dyna-CLUE modeling approach to simulate land use changes in south-central Chile from 1993 to 2007, based on 3 scenarios: (1) enactment of NFL in 1993 when the law was originally debated, and the different configurations of subsidies and regulations proposed in the NFL policy debate by (2) the industrial forestry coalition and (3) the forest conservation coalition. We observed no major difference in native forest loss between simulated outcomes of the industry-advocated policy and the actual NFL legislation. The conservation coalition’s policy scenario increased native forest area, primarily in shrub steppe areas, but also via conversion of pine plantations if incentive payments were large enough. However, NFL payments are inadequate to make native forest management a viable economic land use alternative to industrial pine plantations, which are also subsidized in Chile. Gains in native forest cover occurred mostly on lands under ancestral indigenous claims (unrelated to the discussion of the NFL). We conclude that the NFL, even if enacted in 1993, would have been ineffective in preventing native forest loss, because tree plantations are more profitable and NFL regulations were weakened by the industrial coalition that opposed—and strongly shaped—the final legislation. Effective incentives for protecting early-successional forests and shrublands are needed to mitigate further losses and foster recovery of Chile’s native forests.     

Exploring land use changes and the role of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia

This study compiles and analyses national-level data on land use change (LUC) and its causes in Indonesia and Malaysia over the past 30 years. The study also explores the role that palm oil has played in past LUC and that projected growth in palm oil production may play in LUC until 2020 and suggests strategies to minimize negative effects. Data collection for the study revealed that the quality and quantity of data on LUC on a national scale over time are low. Despite these uncertainties, the overview of past LUC indicates that large changes in land use have occurred in Indonesia and Malaysia. In Indonesia, LUC can primarily be characterized by forest cover loss on 40 million ha (Mha) of land, a 30% reduction in forest land. Deforestation in Malaysia has been smaller in both absolute and relative terms, with a forest cover loss of nearly 5 Mha (20% reduction in forest land). Other large changes in Malaysia occurred in permanent cropland (excluding oil palm), which has decreased rapidly since the early 1990s, and in land under oil palm cultivation, which experienced a sharp increase. Projections of additional land demand for palm oil production in 2020 range from 1 to 28 Mha in Indonesia. The demand can be met to a large extent by degraded land if no further deforestation is assumed. In Malaysia, expansion projections range from 0.06 to 5 Mha, but only the lowest projection of oil palm expansion is feasible when only degraded land may be used. The role of palm oil production in future LUC depends on the size of the projected expansion as well as agricultural management factors such as implementation of best management practices, earlier replanting with higher yielding plants, and establishment of new plantations on degraded land. The current use of degraded land needs to be investigated in order to reduce possible indirect LUC, land tenure conflicts, or other social impacts. In addition to minimizing direct and indirect LUC by the palm oil sector, measures that reduce deforestation triggered by other causes must also be implemented. A key element for doing so is better planning and governance of land use, which entails more appropriate demarcation of forest land and protection of land that still has forest cover, improved monitoring of land use, and more research to uncover the complexities and dynamics of the causes and drivers of LUC.     

Sustainability and forest transitions in the southern Yucatán: The land architecture approach

Consistent with the challenges of sustainability science, land architecture offers a comprehensive approach to land system dynamics useful for numerous types of assessments, ranging from the vulnerability of coupled human–environment systems to forest transitions. With antecedents in several research communities, land architecture addresses the tradeoffs within and between the human and environmental subsystems of land systems in terms of the kind, magnitude, and pattern of land uses and covers. This approach is especially cogent for changes in tropical forests, given the broad-ranging forces acting on them and the equally broad-ranging consequences of their loss. The rudiments of the land architecture approach are illustrated for changes in seasonal tropical forests in the southern Yucatán of Mexico, the pivot of which is the Calakmul biosphere reserve. Simplifying the dynamics involved, the region-wide land architecture is the collective design of stakeholders with different land-use goals that favor tradeoffs in subsystem outcomes serving better either the reserve and related programs or the smallholder farmers that populate the region. A major tradeoff involves forest cover per se, which holds implications for forest transition theory. Evidence for an incipient transition involves the scale of analysis taken. The dynamics involved hold too much uncertainty to forecast a permanent transition to more forest cover and imply that more complex but robust versions of the theory are required.