Employment effects of introducing a minimum wage: The case of Germany

Income inequality has been a major concern of economic policy makers for several years. Can minimum wages help to mitigate inequality? In 2015, the German government introduced a nationwide statutory minimum wage to reduce income inequality by improving the labour income of low-wage employees. However, the employment effects of wage increases depend on time and region specific conditions and, hence, they cannot be known in advance. Because negative employment effects may offset the income gains for low-wage employees, it is important to evaluate minimum-wage policies empirically. We estimate the employment effects of the German minimum-wage introduction using panel regressions on the state-industry-level. We find a robust negative effect of the minimum wage on marginal and a robust positive effect on regular employment. In terms of the number of jobs, our results imply a negative overall effect. Hence, low-wage employees who are still employed are better off at the expense of those who have lost their jobs due to the minimum wage.     

Continuity and Change in Australian Wages Policy

Australia shares with several small European economies the characteristic of having a relatively coordinated union movement with the ability to influence real wage levels. This article explores the course of wages policy over the last decade by applying to Australia a model of wage determination originating in Europe, a model which assumes that the union movement can determine the real wage level. The wage level the union movement chooses is influenced by choices it faces between real wage increases and employment growth. The unions are also influenced by the public sector employment generating activity of government. Stagflation in the late 1970s is analysed by hypothesising a misperception by the union movement of the policy options available to government, and a mistrust by government of the unions' willingness to moderate wage increases if employment levels rise rapidly. The model suggests that an accord between unions and government (such as that which has been in place in Australia since 1983) is a way to escape some of these policy dilemmas.     

The Interplay of Wage and Exchange Rate Policies in Singapore: A Case of Collective Bargaining in Macroeconomic Management

This article analyzes an optimization model of the policy game between Singapore's National Wage Council and the Monetary Authority of Singapore and further simulates the model over policy rules (Nash game versus non-Nash game), economic scenarios, and the game players' preference and bargaining power. The results indicate that the exchange rate appreciation and wage growth act as substitutes under the Nash rule of policy responses, whereas they act as complements under the non-Nash rule. Under the Nash rule, the exchange rate appreciation tends to be procyclical and wage growth countercyclical; union workers' bargaining power relative to employers' strengthens the procyclical appreciation uniformly but reinforces the countercyclical wage growth only when the economy undergoes a downturn. Both the Nash and non-Nash rules call for more moderate appreciation and more flexible wage adjustments than their actual movements. (JEL E64 , E61 , F41 )     

中国的最低工资对就业的影响

最低工资制度是政府通过法律手段保障低工资工人的收入、维护劳动者最基本的权益而对劳动力市场进行人为干预的一种政策选择,它对就业的影响引起了人们的广泛争议。本文利用我国2000-2010年30个省市自治区的面板数据,以最低工资制度最为直接的影响人群--其他人员的就业作为研究对象,采用可行的广义最小二乘（FGLS）方法考察了该制度对我国就业的影响。实证研究的结果表明,我国的最低工资水平相对于社会平均工资每提高10%,其他人员的就业在社会总就业中的比重下降约为23%,敏感性分析和动态回归把弹性范围扩大到-009~-029,这与国际上早期的时间序列研究的结论基本一致,这表明我国的最低工资制度对我国其他人员的就业产生了负面影响。     

Infrastructure Spending and Unemployment: Government Responsibility for Growth and Jobs

Australia has not had full employment for 20 years. Reliance on growth through microeconomic reform has failed. To restore full employment, the government must pursue a judicious program of infrastructure spending.     

HOUSEHOLD INEQUALITY AND THE LABOR MARKET IN SOUTH AFRICA

There has been very little detailed exploration of the relationship between wage income and household inequality in South Africa despite the relevance of this issue for many contemporary growth and development policy debates. This article is directed at such an analysis. It uses a decomposition of household income inequality by income components to highlight the dominance of wage income in driving overall income inequality. This is followed by a detailed discussion of the distribution of the unemployed across different wage-earning household categories. Many of the unemployed are seen to depend on wage earners within their households, but a significant percentage of the unemployed, especially in rural areas, have no direct link to labor market earners. In such cases, the creation of employment is essential. The conclusion explores policy implications by linking our empirical findings to South African debates over the quality versus the quantity of employment.     

Privatization and optimal share release in the Chinese banking industry

This paper establishes a mixed oligopoly model to explore how the government determines the percentage of shares of the state-owned banks to be released to foreign investors under the goal of seeking to maximize social welfare. The theoretical model finds that the release of shares of state-owned banks to foreign investors will reduce the outputs of the state-owned banks. The direction of the change in the profitability of the state-owned banks depends on the percentage of the shares released. The direction of the changes in the levels of social welfare also varies. If the gap in production efficiency between the state-owned banks and private banks is not large enough, we can be certain that a partial release of shares is the government's best policy.     

Less planning,more development? Housing and urban reform discourses in Australia

This paper examines how particular interests shape urban policy debate and reform in Australia. With a particular emphasis on proposed planning system reforms in the nation’s largest state of New South Wales, we examine written submissions from development industry sectors, resident groups, and professional associations. We then compare these submissions to government responses, finding these responses heavily reflect industry narratives. In the context of an ongoing microeconomic reform agenda oriented towards deregulation and competition policy, housing development is framed as central to delivering economic growth, while the planning system is portrayed as a constraint holding back investment and new housing production. Through this prism, a series of rhetorical strategies reframe community concerns about housing affordability and the impact of new development to fit the growth agenda, while environmental and social considerations are largely sidelined.     

用投入产出模型分析旅游对上海经济的影响

利用2002年上海市统计年鉴和投入产出表(1997年度.价值型)数据,用投入产出模型分析旅游对经济产出和收入的直接和乘数影响,计算出旅游产出乘数为2.8876,旅游收入乘数为0.6497,旅游消费引起产出增长的乘数效应主要集中在企业服务业、化学工业、商业、饮食业、旅客运输业等行业,然后将旅游乘数与已有研究的香港、新家坡、秦皇岛、天津市旅游乘数进行了比较,最后讨论了投入产出法和卫星帐户法在分析旅游经济影响方面的优缺点。     

新加坡新生水（NEWater）产业化分析及启示：基于ST视角

新加坡新生水（NEWater）产业高质量发展，是新兴技术产业化的成功范例，其独特的培育策略对把握新兴技术产业化培育规律，提高政府施策效力具有重要借鉴意义。基于可持续转型（ST）理论，在新技术演化基本模型基础上，设计NEWater产业化的ST分析框架，从社会-技术系统外部演进及创新生态位内生演化过程视角，揭示NEWater产业化培育机理，阐述新加坡政府如何通过科学设计政策组合，构建保护空间，助力NEWater创新生态位的培育、跃迁和协同演化过程。结论可为把握新兴技术产业化发展规律和培育成效提供一种崭新的分析框架，并为提高政府新兴技术产业化施策效果提供决策参考。     

Formation of special economic zone,liberalized FDI policy and agricultural productivity

Formation of Special Economic Zone (SEZ) using agricultural land to promote industrialization has recently been one of the most controversial policy issues in many developing economies including India. This paper critically evaluates the consequences of this policy in terms of a three-sector Harris–Todaro type general equilibrium model characterizing a typical developing economy. It finds that agriculture and SEZ can grow simultaneously provided the government spends a substantial amount of its resources on irrigation projects and other infrastructural development designed at improving the efficiency of land. Agricultural wage and aggregate employment in the economy may also improve owing to this policy.     

我国个体经济的发展与就业研究

本文通过回顾我国改革开放以来个体经济的发展情况,从数量的角度分析个体经济与诸多经济变量的关系,并利用生产函数考察个体经济的就业,发现个体经济的规模与营业水平、利率和工资水平存在协整关系,并且个体经济的规模与营业水平、利率成正比,与工资水平成反比,而个体经济就业的ARMA模型显示,其吸纳就业的能力与营业收入、注册资金总额都成正比。     

Towards an information economy : The case of Singapore

Recent empirical studies have documented the emergence of information-based economies in developed countries within Europe, the U.S.A., Japan, and Australia. Casual observations suggest that the newly industrializing country of Singapore is proceeding towards a similar trend. The primary purpose of this paper is to account for the share of Singapore's national product which originates from informational activities. In particular, we define and estimate the size of Singapore's information sector within an input-output framework. Our results indicated that a sizable portion of Singapore's economy is information-based. In view of the significant penetration of informational activities in economic production, advances in communication technology and concomitant improvements in information-handling capabilities are bound to affect factor productivities and incomes with consequences for a country's pattern of employment and production structure. It is anticipated that an economics of communication becomes necessary for an awareness of communication technology as a choice variable in economic planning. We conclude our discussion with an assessment of the admissability of an information sector concept in economic analysis and the usefulness of empirical studies based on such a concept.     

中国城乡居民收入差距的制约因素和缩小路径——基于收入结构视角的实证研究

利用2000—2012年中国全国及31个省(自治区、直辖市)的年度数据,测度了全国和各省区的城乡居民在收入结构中分项收入上的差距对其城乡居民总收入差距的影响方向和影响程度。结果显示:无论从全国层面还是省际层面来看,城乡居民在工资性收入、家庭经营纯收入、转移性收入和财产性收入上的差距较大,与城乡居民总收入差距的发展趋势不一致;不同分项收入对总收入差距的作用效果不同、影响性质相异;城乡居民在财产性收入、工资性收入和转移性收入上差距的拉大是导致城乡居民总收入差距扩大的主要原因,而经营性收入差距的缩小可有效缩小城乡居民总收入差距。最后提出进一步缩小城乡居民收入差距、优化城乡居民收入结构的政策建议。     

Foreign-owned firms around the world: A comparative analysis of wages and employment at the micro-level

This paper provides the first microeconomic cross-country analysis of the effects of foreign ownership on wages, employment and worker turnover rates. Using firm-level and linked worker-firm data, we apply a standardised methodology for three developed (Germany, Portugal, UK) and two emerging economies (Brazil, Indonesia). We find that wage effects are larger in developing countries, and that for each country the largest effect on wages comes from workers who move from domestic to foreign firms. Employment growth after foreign takeover is concentrated in high-skill jobs. In contrast to widespread fears, there is no evidence that wage gains come at the expense of greater job insecurity; separation rates actually fall slightly after takeover. We conclude that the positive effect of foreign ownership on wages is not primarily driven by its impact on incumbent wages, but by its impact on the creation of high-wage jobs.     

International factor mobility and the labor market: A macroeconometric analysis of the German labor market

This paper deals with some problems of international factor mobility with respect to labor using the case of the German labor market. A quarterly macroeconometric model of the German labor market is developed and estimated. It consists of equations explaining labor supply and demand for men and women. Most equations distinguish between labor measured in persons and hours. After a determination of the variables of this model which are influenced by foreign employment two groups of foreign workers which differ according to their EC-member status are discussed separately. Because of several legal and institutional regulations a different treatment of each group with respect to employment policy is necessary. For foreigners from outside the EC alternative reaction functions of the government are discussed and estimated. As the officially published unemployment rate is not comparable intertemporally because of foreign involuntary remigration during recession a new unemployment series including these persons is constructed and explained. The influence of foreign employment on wages is examined and two wage equations are estimated. Finally, some simulation results of an enforced remigration policy are reported.     

基于当前失地农民就业保障体系存在问题的制度经济学分析

失地农民作为弱势群体所面临的就业困难,是现阶段中国社会主义市场经济建设与构建和谐社会亟待解决的重大问题。从制度经济学的角度分析,地方政府发展理念的不科学、征地安置政策目标缺少“可持续生计”、政府公共服务行政职能缺位、就业服务缺乏针对性等,是失地农民的就业与再就业工作中存在的主要问题。     

Employment and Wages in the Private and Local Government Sectors in a Centralized Fiscal System

This paper discusses the interaction between the local government and private sector in an institutional context consistent with a centralized fiscal system. Under decentralized wage setting in the private sector, the effects of shocks in the two sectors depend on whether private and local public goods are substitutes or complements in the union utility function. Higher wage markup in the local government sector unambiguously decreases government output while the effect on private sector employment is ambiguous. Higher income taxes have ambiguous effects on local government output. Shocks in the private sector can be reinforced through feedback effects from the local government sector. A shift from decentralized to centralized wage setting in the private sector reduces wages and increases employment in both sectors.     

新加坡政府跨越“中等收入陷阱”的经验

新加坡1965年独立后,经过几次经济转型,依靠科技创新,提升劳动生产力,成功摆脱中等收入陷阱,跻身于世界发达国家行列。新加坡之所以成功跨越中等收入陷阱,在于优化社会管理,弥补收入差距过大的问题;注重人力资本积累;拥有在全球占主导地位的支柱产业;鼓励和支持中小企业科技创新;解决劳动力转移,促进产业升级等。这些成功经验值得我们借鉴。     

The Redistributive Effects of a Minimum Wage Increase in New Zealand: A Microsimulation Analysis

This paper examines the potential effects on inequality and poverty of a minimum wage increase, based on a microsimulation model that captures the details of household composition and the income tax and welfare benefit system and allows for labour supply responses. Results suggest that, largely due to the composition of household incomes, a policy of increasing the minimum wage has a relatively small effect on the inequality of income per adult equivalent person, and a money metric utility measure, using several inequality indices. Hence, the minimum wage policy does not appear to be particularly well targeted, largely due to many low wage earners being secondary earners in higher income households, while many low income households have no wage earners at all. These results are reinforced when allowing for wage spillovers further up the wage distribution. Nevertheless, a minimum wage increase can have a more substantial effect on some poverty measures for sole parents in employment.