欧洲页岩气开发现状及面临的挑战

美国页岩气革命取得巨大成功,由此可能带来的全球能源、经济和政治格局变化,引发了全世界的关注。欧洲希望复制美国成功模式。对欧洲页岩气开发现状及面临的挑战进行了研究和分析：目前,欧洲页岩气开发工作进展缓慢,在技术、成本和环境等方面面临重大挑战;但在开发方面也有诸多积极因素,如,油气资源衰竭、减排和环境保护等。我国页岩气资源潜力远高于欧洲,加快页岩气开发,对于改变我国油气资源格局,保障国家能源安全,促进经济发展,意义重大。     

页岩气开发的国际经验及对我国的借鉴价值

近年来,美国加快了以页岩气为代表的非常规油气的开发,页岩气的开发不仅改变了美国国内天然气供需结构,对全球拥有页岩气资源的国家也产生了重要影响.虽然我国页岩气产业整体处于起步阶段,产业化水平低,但我国页岩气资源丰富,分布广泛,有望成为重要的替代能源之一,已进入国家能源战略视野.因此,页岩气产业在我国具有良好的发展前景,为加快我国页岩气产业发展,我国应积极借鉴美国页岩气商业开发的成功经验,制定适合我国国情的页岩气开发模式和宏观政策.     

中国能够复制美国页岩气革命吗?

近些年,美国通过页岩气等替代能源的爆发式增长成为全球能源新秩序的最大受益者,并提出“能源独立”的战略构想.中国同样是全球页岩气资源储量最丰富的国家之一.然而,与常规油气资源比较,页岩气等非常规油气资源有三高的特点——高技术、高投入、高风险.由于中国页岩气地质构造复杂、页岩气开采缺乏核心技术、特别是天然气现存体制和定价机制等阻碍了中国页岩气的开发.中国不能盲目照搬美国模式,而应该建立符合中国国情的页岩气开发模式,采取循序渐进的方式,稳步推进页岩气开发.     

美国重振制造业及其对我国的启示

制造业是美国经济保持繁荣的重要力量,经历了起起伏伏的发展历程,20世纪80年代以来实行的"去工业化"发展道路,削弱了美国制造业竞争力。金融危机之后,美国通过一系列法案以刺激制造业发展,兴建制造业创新研究中心,希望以高新技术改造传统制造业,增加就业,推动美国经济走上可持续增长的繁荣之路。通过分析金融危机以来美国和旧金山湾区为重振制造业采取的各项措施和当前形势,对我国制造业发展提出以下建议:面向内需及亚洲市场,继续保持传统制造业的优势;加大先进制造领域投入,创建国家制造业创新中心;跟踪研究页岩气开采工艺和技术,谨慎大规模开发。     

驱动美国页岩气开发的核心因素分析及政策启示北大核心CSSCI

目前我国能源供给短缺、消费结构亟需优化的现状,要求我国必须借鉴美国页岩气开发的成功经验,加速国内页岩气开发。现有文献多从定性角度予以研究,或定量分析单一影响要素,尤以技术进步的定性研究较多,但页岩气开发是受气价、采矿业结构调整和技术进步共同影响的。鉴于VEC模型能够反映多变量间长期均衡关系和短期偏离关系的性质,本文通过运用ADF检验、R&D知识存量测度等定量方法,进一步构建了美国天然气价格、采矿业结构变化、技术进步与页岩气产量间的VEC模型,并给出三个因素对页岩气产量的贡献比例。从回归系数来看,技术进步是提高美国页岩气产量最重要的因素,采矿业结构变化次之;而在页岩气产业开采初期,相较于投资开采技术创新和调整采矿业结构升级,适当抬高天然气价格才是提高页岩气产量最关键举措。最后,提出加大国内页岩气开发技术的研发投资、出台税费补贴等政策建议,为今后我国促进页岩气开发及有效利用提供数据支撑及理论借鉴。     

美欧页岩气发展现状与启示

从页岩气开采的利弊、美国页岩气的发展、欧洲页岩气的现状等方面探讨过去十年中,页岩气在美国经历了非同寻常的热潮。白宫新闻秘书办公室曾经在2009年11月宣称,页岩气的发展将大大提升美国的能源安全,并帮助降低温室气体排放的污染。到2013年,由于页岩气生产的大规模商业化,已使美国的天然气不仅能自给自足,而且具有了相当大的出口潜力。天然气将成为美国能源结构中最大的燃料,并已经帮助美国遏制了其温室气体排放量。     

严格防范页岩气开发中的环境风险

页岩气的商业化开采可缓解油气资源短缺,保障国家能源安全,满足经济发展需求,其脚步已无法阻挡。但页岩气开发是政府、公众和油气企业之间关于利益和环保的博弈,政府必须在其发展与环保之间找到平衡,采取有力措施严格防范页岩气开发带来的环境风险。     

美国页岩气革命及其对我国的影响

发生在美国的“页岩气革命”被誉为“一百年来石油工业最重大的事件”,对美国经济、世界能源市场和国际地缘政治都已产生多方面影响,这些影响随着时间推移将日趋明显。对中国而言,“页岩气革命”带来了机遇,但更多的是带来了挑战。借鉴美国的成功经验,加速发展我国包括页岩气在内的非常规天然气势在必行。这不仅具有经济意义,而且具有国际政治意义。     

页岩气开发对地区经济影响评估方法与思路

随着我国页岩气大规模开发利用,评估页岩气开发带来的经济影响越来越重要。美国页岩气规模化开发多年,研究美国页岩气开发对地区经济的影响及评估方法,对评估我国页岩气开发的经济影响具有重要借鉴意义。文章综述了美国页岩气开发对地区经济效益、外溢经济损失和净经济影响三个方面经济影响的研究进展,在此基础上,以重庆页岩气开发项目为例,提出了重庆页岩气开发对当地经济影响的评估思路。根据重庆页岩气开发的特点,文章认为可采用投入产出模型,评估并预测页岩气开发给重庆带来的经济效益,并注重页岩气开发带来的外溢经济损失;而对于页岩气开发已产生明显经济影响的涪陵页岩气项目示范区,可采用合成控制法进行净经济影响评估。     

浅论中国梦视域下中国页岩气开发与使用

“中国梦”是当代中国的主流指导思想,中国梦是国家梦、民族梦、个人梦。“中国梦”对页岩气开发有着重要的指导作用,页岩气的开发和使用可以反作用于“中国梦”,通过页岩气的开发保障我国能源安全,优化我国能源结构,促进科学与技术的进步,推动社会的可持续发展,减少二氧化碳排放量、改善生活环境,降低人民生活成本等方面对“中国梦”的实现起到的重要的作用。页岩气的开发和使用必定能够促进中华民族的伟大复兴。     

Technological and Institutional Interaction in the Shale Oil Revolution

A decade ago, peak oil was widely discussed. By early 2015, U.S. oil production reached 9.7 million barrels per day, a figure not seen since the nation’s previous peak production in 1971. The dramatic increase in U.S. production is commonly referred to as the shale oil revolution. It is often alleged that the shale oil revolution was the result of technological change, particularly horizontal drilling and fracking. Technological change contributed to the increase in production, but such change involved much more than horizontal drilling and fracking. Institutional changes also contributed to the shale oil revolution. Besides market changes, new mechanisms of financing exploration and production were facilitated by low interest rates and quantitative easing. The political and regulatory environments changed as well. We investigate the peculiar interaction of institutions and technology in the shale oil industry between 2010 and 2015.     

Evaluating the risk premium in the U.S.A. natural gas market: evidence from low-price regime

In recent years, the U.S.A. natural gas market has seen enormous changes. The expectations of abundant supply of shale gas and the slow U.S.A. economic recovery have pushed gas prices below US$ 4 MMBtu. Although shale gas is a new promising source of unconventional energy, investors face uncertain investment plans. In this study, we investigate the risk premium by comparing behaviour before and after the change point in agents risk perception. Unlike traditional empirical research on risk premium, we use the parametric, two-factor model of Schwartz and Smith (2000) to evaluate the implied risk premium term structure from futures prices traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). We compare our findings with other empirical results and find that the change point lies at the beginning of the low-price regime. When we compare periods before and after the change point, we observe that the risk premium changed, not only in sign, but also in magnitude.     

天然气产业一体化发展模式研究与实践

中国天然气发展已经进入"黄金时代",对于保障国家能源安全和实现美丽中国目标具有重要战略作用。天然气产业链涉及上游勘探开发、中游运输储存、下游销售利用,协调一致是产业发展的内生需求。基于此,构建基于产业链上中下游协同、技术创新支撑与管理创新保障的天然气产业一体化发展模式,以资源、管网、市场高度集中的川渝地区为例分析模式实践应用,在推动产业协调发展、实现安全保供、优化区域能源结构和实现经济社会和谐稳定发展方面成效显著。从而提出天然气产业发展战略思考:发挥央企职能,在坚持市场化改革基本方向前提下,资源与市场重合区域实行一体化运营是最佳选择,有助于降低全产业链供应成本、对加快页岩气发展也有重要意义。     

Do shale gas and oil productions move in convergence? An investigation using unit root tests with structural breaks

This paper investigates the long-run trends of shale gas and shale oil productions by applying univariate and panel Lagrange Multiplier (LM), GARCH-based, and PANICCA unit root tests to discover the mean-reverting behaviors. We employ monthly data from January 2007 to December 2016 of shale gas withdrawals and shale oil productions in the U.S. The empirical results both on specific state/oil well and panel data show that most structural breaks emerge around 2007–2011, during which shale energy was massively produced in the U.S. and the global financial crisis and energy shock occurred. Our results also indicate that most external shocks are transitory and the trends soon converge, and that cross-state/well factors have greater potential as temporary shocks than the state-specific/well-particular components. For robust analysis, we conduct additional LM tests of natural gas and crude oil productions for a comparison with the unconventional shale energy. The unit root test of Narayan and Popp (2010) on shale gas and shale oil productions help us to find more stationary evidence. Overall, we present powerful findings of the mean-reversion property and propose critical implications for authorities and market participants.     

The economic impact of shale gas extraction: A review of existing studies

Recent advances in drilling technology have allowed for the profitable extraction of natural gas from deep underground shale rock formations. Several reports sponsored by the gas industry have estimated the economic effects of the shale gas extraction on incomes, employment, and tax revenues. None of these reports has been published in an economics journal and therefore have not been subjected to the peer review process. Yet these reports may be influential to the formation of public policy. This commentary provides written reviews of several studies purporting to estimate the economic impact of gas extraction from shale beds. Due to questionable assumptions, the economic impacts estimated in these reports are very likely overstated.     

Rural light pollution from shale gas development and associated sleep and subjective well-being

The shale oil and gas boom has had large economic, environmental, and social impacts on rural communities in the United States. This study provides novel estimates of the impacts of shale oil and gas development on light pollution in rural areas of the United States. Using nationwide, time-calibrated DMSP-OLS database from 2000 to 2012, we find robust evidence that the shale oil and gas boom significantly increased light pollution in rural areas. We then assess associations between horizontal drilling and subjective self-rated health using nationwide data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 2000 to 2012. Our findings suggest that insufficient sleep and poor health (physical or mental) are associated with increased drilling in rural areas. These results provide support for drilling-related light pollution as an additional environmental pathway of concern for public health beyond the mechanisms of air or water pollution.     

高校牵头国家重大科技项目科研组织模式研究——以北航长鹰无人机为例

新中国成立以来,国家在航空航天、通信计算机、智能制造、新材料等多个领域先后推出一系列重大科技项目,致力于突破关键技术、保障国防安全、推动社会经济发展。20世纪90年代末,我国将中高空长航时无人机研发作为重大战略性科技项目,在几乎一穷二白的困境下由高校牵头开展原型机自主研制并最终取得成功。以具有划时代意义的长鹰无人机研制历程为例,基于扎根理论归纳国家重大科技项目特征及科研组织模式,探讨模式中的关键组成要素及相互作用关系。结果发现,该模式以面向国家战略需求导向的大项目为牵引,在跨建制、跨单位、跨系统建成的国家队与产学研合作大平台的相互作用下,促成总体目标实现、人才队伍培养、产业发展带动等重大成果的正向激励反馈。在新时代背景下,该研究结论能为高校服务国家重大战略需求、更好地发挥科技创新生力军作用提供有价值的实践路径和管理经验。     

国际油气勘探开发项目风险评价决策支持系统

将Web技术与商务智能相结合,设计了国际油气勘探开发项目风险评价决策支持系统的架构,通过分析架构中的主要模块及其功能,阐述了该评价决策支持系统的工作机制和系统开发设计。最后,通过一个国际油气勘探开发项目经济风险评价案例,验证了该系统的智能性、可操作性和可视性。