INTERNET INVESTMENT BANKING: THE IMPACT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ON RELATIONSHIP BANKING

The production "technology" of investment banking, particularly in the pricing and distribution of securities offerings, has long depended on the ability of bankers to build and maintain networks of relationships with institutional investors and client firms. Among other benefits, these relationships enabled banks to economize on communications with investors at a time when communicating with the investment community was quite costly. But recent advances in information technology are forcing banks to reevaluate this relationship-based technology. For example, Goldman Sachs recently purchased a stake in Wit Capital's efforts to build a retail distribution channel via the Internet. And William Hambrecht, founder of Hambrect & Quist, has gone so far as to propose that IPOs be put up for auction over the Internet.
This article offers both historical and economic perspective on these technological innovations in investment banking. In so doing, it provides a framework for thinking about how this segment of the industry is likely to evolve in the near future. It also discusses how advances in information technology coupled with the increasing codification of investment banking practices could reduce the central role of human capital and relationships elsewhere within investment banks, and how this might influence both the organization of individual banks and the industry in general.     

商业银行的行业特征与管理报酬

本文在综述了国内外相关研究的基础上认为,银行业的行业特征对管理报酬有显著影响:高负债率导致的风险转移要求商业银行使用较低的管理激励;低增长性和波动性一定程度上解释了银行业较低的报酬-绩效敏感性,但是这一点随着银行业投资机会的增加在发生根本性变化;不透明性意味着管理报酬更多地基于股票而不是会计的绩效测度;相似的生产技术表明较少的公司专有人力资本激励;银行监管则通过影响银行业市场结构、激励成本和资本监管从而在根本上影响管理报酬结构。     

对外开放是否导致银行业的风险上升？——基于外资持股比例与海外资产占比的实证检验

对外开放是否导致商业银行的风险上升,以往学者的研究结论并不统一。本文基于中国392家商业银行的微观数据,检验了“引进来”(用外资持股比例作为替代指标)与“走出去”(用海外资产占比作为替代指标)对商业银行风险承担行为的影响。结果显示,对外开放与商业银行的风险之间呈现非线性曲线特征并存在临界点;对中小型商业银行而言,过高的外资持股比例与过低的境外投资规模会带来风险;对大型商业银行而言,境外投资规模存在一个阈值区间,在阈值区间内,可能导致银行风险上升。政策建议是:外资参股中小型商业银行的比例可能不宜过高,鼓励中小型商业银行加大境外投资力度,大型商业银行可以根据特定时期的目标来调整对外开放策略,同时应强化风险预警与防范手段,在坚持与扩大银行业对外开放的背景下,实施宏观审慎原则,维护我国金融体系的整体稳定。     

Determinants of information technology investments: The case of ATM in an emerging economy

This paper examines the determinants of automatic teller machine (ATM), a kind of information technology (IT), in the Taiwanese banking industry. The lessons learned from Taiwan's banking industry can be applied to China's banking industry to facilitate the understanding of the IT adoption strategies of Chinese financial institutions. Factors that are expected to have impact on IT investment in general and on ATM investment in particular are identified from three perspectives, namely operating scale perspective, deposit service perspective, and operating cost perspective. The results of this study indicate that operating scale, banking deposit service and operating cost are all significant determinants of ATM investment in the Taiwan banking industry. The results are useful for those banks and financial institutions outside of China in deciding their ATM investment strategies in China when trying to enter and penetrate the Chinese banking market.     

我国商业银行经营投资银行业务对风险影响的实证研究

本文以2009-2018年19家商业银行为研究对象,运用波动性分析、相关性分析及面板数据回归分析方法,考察了经营投资银行业务对银行风险的影响。研究结果表明,投资银行收入无明显周期性趋势,波动性明显高于利息净收入,经营投资银行业务会加剧银行业收入的不确定性,但由于收入占比较小,投资银行业务并非造成我国银行业收入波动的主要因素。多数银行的投资银行收入与利息净收入表现为正相关性,银行难以通过经营投资银行业务实现风险分散目的。投资银行业务对银行风险影响的回归结果较为显著,随着投资银行收入在银行收入结构中的权重越来越大,银行多元化收入程度随之加深,银行风险也随之下降。     

Relationship Banking, Liquidity, and Investment in the German Industrialization

Close bank relationships are thought to ameliorate firms' liquidity constraints—a phenomenon frequently measured by liquidity sensitivity of investment. Using German firms during the formative years of universal banking (1903–1913), this paper shows that, even controlling for selection bias, investment is more sensitive to internal liquidity for bank-networked firms than unattached firms. The firm exhibiting the greatest liquidity sensitivity, however, faced no apparent liquidity constraint. The findings yield two implications: they support recent research rejecting a linear relationship between liquidity sensitivity and financing constraints, and they suggest that relationship banking provides no consistent lessening of firms' liquidity sensitivity.     

Contemporary issues in banking

This article introduces the special issue which provides a timely and comprehensive overview of advances in banking research. First we highlight some of the major developments in banking since the global financial crisis noting the changed operational and regulatory environment, industry reform and the greater emphasis on risk measurement and management. We then go on to outline the contributions contained in the special issue all of which add to the debate on the implications of significant industry reforms in the banking and financial services sector.     

我国房地产融资方式的比较、选择与调整

央行121号文件发布以来,中央政府及具体职能部门一系列紧缩房地产银行信贷的政策和措施,拉开了我国房地产融资多元化发展的帷幕。本文分析与比较了目前我国存在的银行信贷、企业债券、企业上市、境外融资、投资基金和信托等主要的房地产融资方式运作的内在机理和宏观环境,以期正确选择和有目的地调整我国房地产融资方式。据此,提出我国房地产多元化融资在近期内应选择“银行贷款 房地产信托”和“银行贷款 房地产投资基金”两种模式。同时,为保障这两种模式的有效运作,应对银行内部资产负债互动机制的构建、投资基金法的确立和信托融资中不必要限制的解禁等方面进行调整。     

代客境外理财业务新政对我国银行业的影响和对策

2006年4月,经国务院批准,中国人民银行推出了“外汇管理新政”, “外汇管理新政”放行商业银行代客境外理财业务,对我国银行业来说,带来的将是机遇大于挑战。本文在对代客境外理财业务新政解读基础上,对实施代客境外理财业务新政的目的以及对银行业的影响进行了分析,并提出了银行业的应对之策。     

Banking industry volatility and economic growth

Utilizing the recent dynamic panel GMM estimation techniques for 36 markets, this research investigates the relationship between banking industry volatility and future economic growth, and provides empirical evidence complementary to Cole et al. (2008) who examine the finance-growth nexus from a unique asset pricing theory perspective and document a positive relationship between bank stock returns and future economic growth that is significantly influenced by a series of country-specific and banking institutional characteristics. We find that the negative link between banking industry volatility and future economic growth is significantly affected by government ownership of banks, the enforcement of the insider trading law, systemic banking crises, and bank accounting disclosure standards, while the impact of financial development is ambiguous. The significant results are primarily driven by the data from emerging markets.     

银行业发展与经济增长:一个综述

经济危机背景下银行业发展与经济增长的关系成为理论界关注的焦点。本文从银行业规模、结构和效率三方面对国内外二者关系研究的主要文献进行梳理,研究发现国内外绝大多数学者肯定银行业规模因素尤其是银行信贷对于经济增长之间具有促进作用,同时却忽略银行负债规模对经济增长的影响;多数国内学者认为垄断性的银行市场结构对我国经济增长不利。当前的研究仍存在一些不足,如研究方法不合理,研究角度较为片面,过度重视银行业规模性和结构性因素而忽视效率因素对经济增长的影响等问题。     

Investment and Abandonment Decisions with Uncertain Price and Cost

We analyze firms' investment and abandonment decisions when both output price and investment cost change stochastically. The model allows for and makes endogenous the abandonment decision, thereby incorporating irreversibility. We show that the investment trigger may be much higher than the standard net present value rule suggests even when a substantial portion of the investment cost may be recovered. Further, we argue that the correlation between output price and investment costs significantly affects the effect of irreversibility on investment behavior. Empirical implications are discussed with extensive numerical illustrations, along with an application to the banking industry.     

The Impact of Enterprises’ Shadow Banking Activities on Business Performance: A Test Based on Mediator Effect of Investment Scale and Investment Efficiency

ABSTRACT

In recent years, China’s financial sector has gradually been alienated from the real sector, allowing financial innovation and regulatory arbitrage add their own value to finance. High interest rates in the financial industry have led to changes in the real sector, revealing a trend toward “financialization” and “quasi-financialization”; a typical example of this includes nonfinancial enterprises’ shadow banking activities. In this article, we use annual data from 2004 to 2015 of A share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, to examine the influence of nonfinancial enterprises’ shadow banking activities on business performance. The results show that, overall, enterprises’ shadow banking activity improve operating performance. In addition, from the perspective of earning structure, nonfinancial enterprises’ shadow banking business increases financial benefits, but has a significantly negative effect on operating income. Further tests show that enterprises engaged in shadow banking activities will impact operating income through the two intermediary variables of investment scale and investment efficiency. However, the negative effect of investment in crowding out operating income is greater than that of the efficiency-improving effect on operating income. This article provides policy guidance in terms of recognizing diverse aspects of shadow banking system that divorce the real economy from the financial economy.     

Economic stability under alternative banking systems: Theory and policy

In this paper we show in a thought experiment that in an economy where i) investors hold rational expectations, ii) output is generated by a linear homogeneous production function, and iii) real investment is allocated across sectors according to the CAPM, a fractional reserve banking system is not Pareto efficient and amplifies the business cycle. In developing these results we show that these three well known propositions in economics also imply a new view of the business cycle, one where the business cycle is described in terms of the dispersion of an ex-ante probability distribution. The policy implication of this analysis is that bank regulation should go further than the Volcker rule or the Vickers commission proposal by restricting bank investments to currency and deposit accounts on the central bank. Nonbank financial institutions should then carry out the financial intermediation function now carried out by banks. The paper proposes that post office banking perhaps augmented with blockchain technology sometime in the future is one way to implement the transition from fractional reserve banking to full reserve banking. While little academic work has been done on full reserve banking in the aftermath of the Great Crisis, it is interesting to note that it is part of banking reform proposals now (July 2016) before the parliament in Iceland and a special national referendum in Switzerland.     

The Past, Present, and Probable Future for Community Banks

We review how deregulation, technological advance, and increased competitive rivalry have affected the size and health of the United States community banking sector and the quality and availability of banking products and services. We then develop a simple theoretical framework for analyzing how these changes have affected the competitive viability of community banks. Empirical evidence presented in this paper is consistent with the model’s prediction that regulatory and technological change has exposed community banks to intensified competition on the one hand, but on the other hand has left well-managed community banks with a potentially exploitable strategic position in the industry. We also offer an analysis of how the number and distribution of community banks may change in the future.     

市场化进程中的我国银行业绩效分析

本文首先回顾了有关市场结构与银行绩效之间关系的理论文献和实践经验,并总结出四种判断标准.其次分析了我国银行业市场化进程以及对银行绩效的影响,并实证分析了市场结构、存款规模、市场容量以及外部经济环境对银行绩效的影响.最后得出结论并提出有关建议.     

城市商业银行发展投资银行业务的策略研究

随着中国金融业改革发展步伐的不断加快,城市商业银行所处的市场结构、竞争格局和经营环境已发生了前所未有的变化。面对外部日益激烈的同业竞争和内部推进经营转型的迫切需求,发展投资银行业务成为城市商业银行的必然选择。本文全面论述了城市商业银行发展投资银行业务的重大现实意义,从优势、劣势、机遇和威胁四个方面进行了深入细致的剖析,并有针对性的提出了城市商业银行发展投资银行业务的策略建议。     

解析美国商业银行的非利息收入

过去20年间,美国商业银行业的投资银行、资产服务、资产证券化、保险业务和其他运营性收入的增长使得非利息收入在营业净收入的占比增加了15.4%。而且,大型商业银行的非利息收入在行业中的占比从82.9%增加到93.0%。本文从发展动因、收入构成、分类银行、综合影响方面分析了期间美国商业银行业非利息收入的发展变化,以期为中国商业银行业发展中间业务提供阶段性目标与路径参考。     

The impact of all-star analyst job changes on their coverage choices and investment banking deal flow

Using a sample of all-star analysts who switch investment banks, we examine (1) whether analyst behavior is influenced by banking relationships and (2) whether analyst behavior affects investment banking deal flow. Although the stock coverage decision depends on the relationship with the client firms, we find no evidence that analysts change their optimism or recommendation levels when joining a new firm. Investment banking deal flow is related to analyst reputation only for equity transactions. For debt and M&A transactions, analyst reputation does not matter. There is no evidence that issuing optimistic earnings forecasts or recommendations affects investment banking deal flow.     

A Model of the Demand for Investment Banking Advising and Distribution Services for New Issues

This paper presents a theory of the demand for investment banking advising and distribution services for the case in which the investment banker is better informed about the capital market than is the issuer, and the issuer cannot observe the distribution effort expended by the banker. The optimal contract under which the offer price decision is delegated to the better-informed banker in order to deal with the adverse selection and moral hazard problems resulting from the informational asymmetry and the observability problem is characterized. The model demonstrates a positive demand for investment banking advising and distribution services and provides an explanation of the underpricing of new issues.