金融危机持续蔓延，亚洲新兴市场未能幸免北大核心CSSCISSCI

美国金融危机造成了全球市场的动荡,亚洲新兴市场国家也受到不同程度的影响。尽管亚洲国家在此次危机中的直接损失有限。但其金融市场也遭受了诸如股市暴跌、汇率下滑等波动。油价回落、出口疲软和资金抽逃将使亚洲国家面临压力,未来经济前景面临不确定性。部分国家如韩国、印度和印尼,尤其是韩国出现危机的可能性较大。     

信贷快速增长与国际信贷:亚洲面临的挑战

主要国际货币保持超低利率,引发了人们对国际信贷资金流入增长强劲的亚洲的担忧。本文研究了国际信贷的三种构成及控制该种信贷面临的一些政策挑战。实证研究结果表明,国际信贷增长会促使新兴市场出现信贷过热。危机前国际信贷水平越高,危机后信贷和实际产出收缩越严重。当前亚洲国家(或地区)的国际信贷占其贷款总额的比重不大,即使一些亚洲经济体美元信贷增长迅猛,对其信贷总量的增长影响也有限。随着一些亚洲国家金融开放程度不断加大,国内居民将更多地利用套息机会增加外币融资,对国际市场融资的依赖度也将会加大,这将削弱该国控制国内信贷增长的能力。亚洲国家对这种趋势应该予以密切关注。     

亚洲经济体和金融市场面临的挑战

金融危机后亚洲国家取得了很多成绩,但仍然面临金融全球化、人口结构的改变、分配不公和贫困问题带来的挑战,这些挑战当中也蕴涵着机遇。十年前,亚洲主要经济体经历了由资本短期内大规模外逃导致的货币危机,此次资本外逃的规模和速度是前所未有的。危机暴露了金融业和产业界隐藏的风险,并造成了严重破坏。但亚洲国家最终成功走出危机。当私人部门的资本撤离亚洲国家时,国际社会通过IMF与包括日本的亚     

亚洲金融风波未解之迷与欧元启动

破解亚洲金融风波未解之谜欧元统一是关键的外在因素亚洲金融风波以来,国内外媒体刊载了大量有关研究和分析文章,大都把产生这场风暴的起因,归结到受危机影响国家内部的制度或机制因素。例如,韩国的政府、银行与企业间的不正常关系;泰国和马来西亚的“泡沫经济”和不适当的资本市场开放政策;印尼的政治腐败等等。但是这些问题在亚洲     

韩资银行风险管理经验

上世纪90年代初,金泳三政府为根治韩国长期积累的结构性痼疾开始推行金融自由化改革。然而在1997年,受亚洲金融危机的影响,韩国的资本市场、货币市场和外汇市场屡遭重创,并出现了国家外汇储备枯竭、企业信用危机等连锁反应,企业高负债经营模式和银行忽视风险管理等深层次的问题     

韩国是怎样较快摆脱金融危机的

1997年7月亚洲金融危机的爆发至今已有三年多了.在这期间,有关国家采取了一系列经济和金融整改措施,对缓解危机起到了积极作用.其中特别引人注目的是韩国,通过一系列的改革,经济迅速恢复,成为"东亚地区遭受金融危机的国家中第一个摆脱危机的国家(国际货币基金组织负责人语)".1999年韩国GDP增长速度达到10.7%,外汇储备由危机时的39亿美元增至697亿美元,利率、物价、汇率保持稳定,国际信用不断提高.2000年经济增长率高达10%.韩国经济之所能够在较短的时间内从危机的"重灾区"脱颖而出,很大程度上归功于政府采取的一系列标本兼治的措施.     

韩国应对亚洲金融危机的经验及启示

20世纪70-80年代,经济崛起中的东亚经济体遵循金融深化的发展思路,纷纷开始了金融自由化进程。然而,1997年亚洲金融危机的爆发使得东亚经济体遭遇重创,韩国经济也陷入战后以来最严峻的时期。为应对危机,韩国政府果断地对金融体系进行改革,逐渐走出了危机的阴霭。韩国与我国有着相近的文化、历史背景及经济增长道路,经济社会的可比因素较多,韩国面临的一些经济金融困境对我国是难得的“前车之鉴”。分析韩国1997年金融危机爆发的原因、影响及应对策略,无疑会给我国正在推进的金融体制改革提供有益的借鉴。     

宏观·国际

亚洲危机援助基金规模翻番东南亚国家及其主要贸易伙伴中国、日本和韩国日前同意将一个地区金融危机基金扩大一倍,增加到2400亿美元。这个名为《清迈倡议》的基金由一系列货币交换协议组成,为东南亚国家提供了一个安全网络。该基金约80%的资金来自中国、日本和韩国。     

外刊扫描

资金涌亚洲避险韩推外汇管制开亚洲趋势欧债危机近期导致全球货币市场急剧波动,韩国昨宣布一系列外汇管制措施,以减少资金流入和韩元波动,当中包括限制外国和韩国本地银行进行外汇衍生工具合约交易等。欧     

韩国经济是怎样较快地摆脱金融危机的

1997年7月爆发的亚洲金融危机，至今已有三年多了。在这期间，有关国家采取了一系列经济和金融整改措施，对缓解危机起到了积极作用。其中特别引人注目的是韩国，通过一系列的改革，经济迅速恢复，成为“东亚地区遭受金融危机的国家中第一个摆脱危机的国家（国际货币基金组织负责人语）”。1999年韩国GDP增长速度达10．7％，外汇储备由危机时的39亿美元增至697亿美元，利率、物介、汇率保持稳定，国际信用不断提高。2000年经济增长率同比高达10％。韩国经济之所以能够在较短的时间内从危机的“重灾区”脱颖而出，很大程度上归功于政府采取的一系列标本兼治的措施。     

Crisis transmission: Some evidence from the Asian financial crisis

We used a crisis measure of financial market as defined by Sexena (1998) to study the nature of crisis transmission and the channels through which the 1997 crisis was transmitted among Asian financial markets. Estimated with a vector autoregression (VAR) and an OLS model on Asian financial markets from January 1990 to December 1998, we found that:

1.

During the crisis period, crisis transmission was more significant than during other noncrisis periods;

2.

Comparing the crisis transmission within the industrialized countries (Taiwan, Korea, and Japan), within the emerging countries (Thailand, Malaysia, The Philippines, and Indonesia), and between the industrialized and emerging groups, it is shown that

2.1.

The crisis transmission among the three industrialized countries was not significant.

2.2.

The crises originated from Thailand and Malaysia were transmitted to other emerging countries.

2.3.

The crisis transmission between industrialized and emerging countries was not found to be significant. There was evidence showing that Singapore served as an intermediary transmitting crisis between industrialized and emerging countries during this particular crisis.

3.

The transmission through the wake-up call effect was found to be more significant than other transmission channels. Trade relationship and cash-in effects only existed in Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia.

     

Emerging Bond Market Volatility and Country Spreads

Using JPMorgan's emerging market bond index, this paper analyzes how increases in country credit spreads can persist in emerging bond markets. The results of T-GARCH regressions show that, during financial crisis periods, emerging countries' credit spreads may increase persistently as a result of interaction between changes in spreads and volatilities, making emerging bond markets more turbulent. The results suggest that emerging countries should endeavor to develop a stabilization mechanism by enhancing information efficiency in bond markets. In particular, because Asian countries have experienced persistent, overreactive volatility, this paper implies that Asian countries should work together more closely during financial crisis periods.     

The response of the external finance premium in Asian corporate bond markets to financial characteristics,financial constraints and two financial crises

Empirical investigation of the external finance premium has been conducted on the margin between internal finance and bank borrowing or equities but little attention has been given to corporate bonds, especially for the emerging Asian market. In this paper, we hypothesize that balance sheet indicators of creditworthiness could affect the external finance premium for bonds as they do for premia in other markets. Using bond-specific and firm-specific data for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand during 1995–2009 we find that firms with better financial health face lower external finance premia in all countries. When we introduce firm-level heterogeneity, we show that financial variables appear to be both statistically and quantitatively more important for financially constrained firms. Finally, when we examine the effects of the 1997–1998 Asian crisis and the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, we find that the sensitivity of the premium is greater for constrained firms during the Asian crisis compared to other times.     

A study of cointegration and variance decomposition among national equity indices before and during the period of the Asian financial crisis

This study uses a cointegration and variance decomposition analysis to examine the linkages among the stock markets of 12 Asia–Pacific countries, before and during the period of the Asian financial crisis. Johansen (1988) multivariate cointegration and error-correction tests demonstrate evidence in support of the existence of cointegration relationships among the national stock indices during, but not before, the period of financial crises. In the recent crisis, the relationship within the South-East Asian countries seems to be stronger than that within the North-East Asian countries. The variance decomposition reveals that the ‘degree of exogeneity’ for all indices has been reduced, implying that no countries are ‘exogenous’ to the financial crisis. In addition, Granger’s causality test suggests that the US market still ‘causes’ some Asian countries during the period of crisis, reflecting the US market’s persisting dominant role.     

货币错配与经济金融稳定:亚太经验比较分析

中国的汇率制度改革使得在盯住汇率制度下积聚的巨大货币错配风险逐渐暴露出来.货币错配是否会影响经济金融稳定,本文通过对亚洲金融危机、日本经济衰退以及本世纪以来亚洲新兴市场国家的累积的新风险进行梳理、比较与分析,得出净外币负债型货币错配与净外币资产型货币错配在一定的条件下都会影响经济金融稳定.     

亚洲汇率波动及政策挑战

自东亚危机以来,亚洲各国采取了一系列的措施降低货币危机的风险,包括执行保守的汇率政策,实现经常账户盈余,积累外汇储备,减少外部债务,谨慎开放资本市场和展开地区金融合作,这些改革使亚洲在全球金融危机期间的表现远胜于其他新兴市场经济。但亚洲货币依然受到了严重冲击,而且出现了非常大的差异性。这既是亚洲的开放经济所决定的,同时也在三个方面对下一步的亚洲汇率政策提出了挑战:第一,汇率体系究竟应该浮动还是管制?第二,到底多少外汇储备才是最佳规模?第三,地区金融合作能否增强亚洲汇率的稳定性?     

SECURITIZATION: A FINANCING STRATEGY FOR EMERGING MARKETS FIRMS

With emerging markets now in crisis, companies in developing countries are finding it difficult to obtain financing. Securitization, a transaction structure in which the securities sold to investors are backed by a company's receivables, is one of the few vehicles with at least the potential to provide financing at economic rates in the current environment of uncertainty.
Unlike U.S. securitization issues, emerging markets transactions often use a structure known as "future flows" securitization, in which the securities are backed by receivables that are not expected to be generated until after issuance. This article begins by describing how the process of future flows securitization carves out securities with levels of political risk acceptable to foreign capital market investors. Then it traces the history of emerging markets securitization from its origins in Latin America to its more recent uses during the Asian crisis. Securitization helped bring foreign investors back to Latin America after its debt crisis of the early 1980s. And while the Asian crisis has sharply reduced new issuance for all kinds of emerging market financings, the volume of securitization issues appears to have declined less precipitously than other types of transactions geared to foreign investors. Moreover, investment bankers are now hard at work planning new securitization issues for companies in both Latin America and Asia.
In exploring the longer-term effects of securitization on both domestic issuers and their economies, the author suggests that securitization could play a pivotal role in restoring emerging markets companies' access to global financial markets. Indeed, with a few exceptions such as Malaysia, most emerging markets are now responding to the crisis by taking measures to protect investors, such as requiring greater financial transparency and dispelling legal uncertainties that have discouraged securitization in particular and overseas investment more generally.     

国际资本流动格局的变化对新兴市场国家的冲击——基于全球金融危机的分析

全球金融危机导致国际资本流动格局发生了重大变化,对新兴市场国家构成了冲击。从国际资本流动的规模、结构以及对不同地区国家的冲击这三个方面来看,中东欧国家受到的冲击最大,拉丁美洲国家次之,东亚国家最小。经济增长模式的脆弱性、对外资银行贷款的过度依赖、缺乏对外资银行和潜在金融风险的审慎监管以及僵化的汇率制度,是中东欧国家遭受严重冲击的主要原因。国际资本流动格局的变化在一定程度上对中国的经济、金融稳定构成冲击,并使中国的宏观经济政策面临严峻的挑战。中国应当汲取中东欧和拉丁美洲国家的教训,采取有效措施增强宏观调控的有效性。     

Market Risk of Developed and Emerging Countries During the Global Financial Crisis

This study compares the performance of the widely used risk measure, value at risk (VaR), across a large sample of developed and emerging countries. The performance of VaR is assessed using both the unconditional and conditional tests of Kupiec and Christoffersen, respectively, as well as the quadratic loss function. The results indicate that VaR performs much more poorly when measuring the risk of developed countries than of emerging ones. One possible reason might be the deeper initial impact of the global financial crisis on developed countries. The results also provide evidence of the decoupling of the market risk of emerging and developed countries during the global financial crisis.     

Currency bid-ask spread dynamics and the Asian crisis: Evidence across currency regimes

Using a sample of 21 emerging and developed country currencies, we evaluate the impact of the Asian crisis on bid-ask spreads. While the crisis had widespread and uniform volatility effects, the spread effects were not uniform across emerging and developed country currencies. For Asian emerging markets, spreads widened and spread volatility increased significantly during the crisis, while developed markets spreads narrowed and spread volatility decreased significantly. We investigate the impact of more flexible and less flexible exchange rate regimes on bid-ask spreads using panel data. In general, countries with tightly-managed regimes have significantly lower spreads than countries with more freely-floating regimes, while controlling for the influence of other factors such as volatility. Asian developing market spreads are higher than spreads of the other countries, again, after controlling for the influence of other factors.