税收优惠与外资企业在华研发——基于前瞻性有效平均税率的考察

利用税收优惠促进外资企业在华研发是“稳外资”的重要手段。本文使用2008—2015年全国企业税收调查数据,测算前瞻性有效平均税率,实证考察了税收优惠对外资企业在华研发的影响。研究发现,税收优惠对外资企业在华研发具有显著的促进效应,这一效应通过提高外资企业技术转化水平、缓解外资企业融资约束、促进外资企业人力资本升级三条路径实现。异质性分析发现,税收优惠会显著促进制造业外资企业在华研发,且对高技术制造业企业的促进效应更明显。综上,本文聚焦于税收优惠与外资企业在华研发,提出加大对外资企业研发的税收支持力度,差异化外资企业在华研发税收优惠标准,畅通外资企业研发成果转化渠道和人力资本提升通道、以国内需求拉动外资企业研发,进一步扩大外资准入范围等建议,为进一步优化“稳外资”政策提供参考。     

基于后向关联渠道的技术外溢及其影响因素的实证研究

利用2002年投入产出表和1999～2006年38个工业部门的面板数据构造了上下游内外资企业间的前后向业务关联渠道,实证检验了FDI的技术外溢.结果表明,虽然FDI通过竞争渠道和前向关联渠道产生了负向外部性,但经由后向关联渠道却对上游行业国有企业产生了显著的技术外溢,且净效应为正;且下游行业外资企业的集聚以及在上下游内外资企业间技术差距大时,都有利于后向技术外溢的产生,这在一定程度上佐证了"市场换技术"的提议.     

最低工资标准、地区环境规制与外资企业撤离

基于2008—2016年中国地级市最低工资和环境规制的数据,运用Logit模型研究了最低工资标准以及环境规制的提高对外资企业撤离的系统影响及异质性特征。研究发现:提高最低工资标准显著增加了外资企业撤离中国的可能,而环境规制的作用方向是不确定的;其次,就异质性分析来看,生产率低、创新能力弱、非高新技术企业以及所在地市场化程度低、人力资本低的外资企业容易受最低工资标准与环境规制的影响;提高最低工资标准对行业竞争激烈的外资企业影响更大;最后基于实证结论,对“人口红利”转向“人才红利”、产业企业转型升级、环境治理与企业发展等展开延展性思考。     

差异化视角下区域金融开放对金融风险的影响研究——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

本文基于2007－2019年我国31个省（区、市）的面板数据,对区域金融开放和区域金融风险水平进行测度,运用状态空间模型实证研究区域金融开放对区域金融风险的动态影响。研究结果表明：我国金融开放水平和金融风险水平的省际差异悬殊,各省金融开放对金融风险的影响效应存在异质性。各省金融开放水平对金融风险的影响效应以各省区域经济金融发展为基础,在经济基础较弱和金融发展水平较低的地区,通过金融开放可以降低区域整体金融风险;在经济基础较好和金融发展水平相对较高的地区,区域金融开放水平的提高带来的金融风险相对较大。     

知识产权保护对我国全要素生产率的影响研究

通过构建包含执法力度的知识产权保护区际度量指标,将全要素生产率分解为技术进步与技术效率,运用2000～2010年我国的时间序列及省际面板数据,考察了知识产权保护对全要素生产率及其不同方面的影响效应。实证结果表明:知识产权保护对于全要素生产率尤其是技术效率部分,具有一定程度的促进作用;人力资本、贸易开放、FDI是推动我国全要素生产率提升的重要要素。     

人力资本异质性视角的国际贸易溢出效应研究

本文借鉴CH模型和LP算法,研究了中国人力资本水平和国内研发强度对于进口贸易技术溢出效果的影响,从可观测因素的角度发现,新变量的加入使得模型更贴近于我国现实国情。通过采用道格拉斯生产函数的索洛余值法模型测算我国全要素生产率,作为被解释变量。在扩展的CH模型的基础上将我国资本存量解释变量估计了物化型渠道R&D溢出(进口与FDI渠道)在人力资本异质性的环境下对东道国生产率变动的影响。     

团体健康险市场对外开放倒计时

选择健康险市场开放的现实考虑在于中资保险公司健康保险起步晚,经验不足,而外资公司在这个专业性较强的领域有优势,开放有利于促进健康保险业务领域的技术进步和风险控制.     

教育人力资本、健康人力资本与劳动收入份额的实证关系研究

本文利用1997~2014年的省际面板数据,以全国、东、中、西部地区分别建立面板数据模型,分析了我国教育人力资本以及健康人力资本的存量和投资对劳动收入份额的影响作用及地区差异。研究表明,人力资本存量和健康人力资本投资对劳动收入份额的影响具有区域差异性;教育人力资本投资对劳动收入份额的影响不显著。     

开放式基金渠道营销对资金流动的影响——基于非平衡面板数据的实证分析

针对基金渠道营销对基金资金流入的影响效应,基于2011-2015年我国147只开放式股票型基金的非平衡面板数据,实证分析渠道营销对基金资金流动的影响.通过采用非平衡面板的固定效应模型研究结果表明:与已有文献所证实的营销资金投入与资金净流入呈正比关系的结论不同,发现营销资金投入的增加,并不会使资金流入增加,反而与资金净申购率呈显著负相关关系,这其中原因与我国投资者的有限理性有很大关系.     

人民币汇率波动与收入不平等:影响渠道及应对

本文基于2006—2018年我国28个省份的省级面板数据,探讨了人民币汇率波动对收入不平等产生的影响以及影响渠道。研究结果表明,人民币汇率波动的增加会通过外商直接投资渠道与就业渠道扩大收入不平等。因此,在有序推进人民币汇率市场化、人民币汇率波动逐渐增加的背景下,应稳步推进经济发展与扩大就业,促进外汇市场的发展与完善,加强劳动力市场的建设,完善失业人员培训保障机制,不断提升经济开放程度及教育水平,以避免人民币汇率波动对收入不平等的负面影响。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…