Risk management of non-maturing liabilities

Risk management of non-maturing liabilities is a relatively unstudied issue of significant practical importance. Non-maturing liabilities include most of the traditional deposit accounts like demand deposits, savings accounts and short time deposits and form the basis of the funding of depository institutions. Therefore, the asset and liability management of depository institutions depends crucially on an accurate understanding of the liquidity risk and interest rate risk profile of these deposits.In this paper we propose a stochastic three-factor model as general quantitative framework for liquidity risk and interest rate risk management for non-maturing liabilities. It consists of three building blocks: market rates, deposit rates and deposit volumes. We give a detailed model specification and present algorithms for simulation and calibration. Our approach to liquidity risk management is based on the term structure of liquidity, a concept which forecasts for a specified period and probability what amount of cash is available for investment. For interest rate risk management we compute the value, the risk profile and the replicating bond portfolio of non-maturing liabilities using arbitrage-free pricing under a variance-minimizing measure. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by means of a case study: the risk management of savings accounts.     

SOME ANALYTICS OF WHY CONDITIONAL IRRs CAN CONTAIN GROWTH RATE RELATED MEASUREMENT ERROR

This paper investigates the consequences of incorrectly modelling the investment outflow/benefit inflow relationship on estimates of the internal rate of return (IRR) prepared by using cash recovery rates (CRRs). The main result of this paper is that CRR-based estimates of the IRR will contain such bias if and only if either the duration of the assumed shape of the investment outflow/benefit inflow relationship is less than the duration of the true investment outflow/benefit inflow relationship for all rates of interest or the duration of the assumed shape of the investment outflowlbenefit inflow relationship is greater than the duration of the true investment outflowlbenefit inflow relationship for all rates of interest. This result is then applied to the case where both the true and the assumed shape of the investment outflow/benefit inflow relationships have benefit inflows that change exponentially over time. It is shown that if the exponential rate of change is mis-specified the resulting CRR-based estimate of the IRR will contain systematic bias monotonically related to the rate of growth.     

Evaluating Tax Policy for Location Decisions

We consider the impact of taxation when investors face a discrete choice between two or more mutually exclusive projects; in particular we consider the location choice of multinationals. Such choices depend on an effective average tax rate. We propose a precise measure of this rate, which is shown to be equal to a weighted average of an effective marginal tax rate and an adjusted statutory tax rate, where the weights depend on the profitability of the investment. Estimates of the distribution of this measure are presented and compared for domestic and international investment in the USA, France, Germany and the UK. We analyse the impact of harmonising corporate tax rates in Europe on incentives to locate in France, Germany and the UK.     

Cybersecurity breaches and investors’ interest in the firm as an investment

Cybersecurity breaches pose a significant risk to firms. To combat these risks, many firms engage in strategic cybersecurity risk management initiatives. While these efforts may reduce the likelihood of a cybersecurity breach, they do not eliminate the risk of a breach. In the event of a cybersecurity breach, firms may issue an apology to investors. This study uses an experiment to examine whether a firm indicates cybersecurity risk management is a strategic initiative and whether a post-cybersecurity breach apology by the CEO impacts nonprofessional investors’ investment interest in the firm. Results show that, in response to a cybersecurity breach, the presence of a CEO apology positively impacts investors’ investment impression and their perceptions of CEO affective and CEO cognitive trust. We find that investors’ investment interest is lowest for a firm that previously indicates cybersecurity risk management is a strategic initiative and where the CEO does not issue an apology. The CEO apology, however, does not significantly impact investment amount, a secondary measure of investor interest. Results from this study have implications for managers, investors, and regulators.     

Idiosyncratic production risk, growth and the business cycle

We introduce a neoclassical growth economy with idiosyncratic production risk and incomplete markets. Each agent is an entrepreneur operating her own technology with her own capital stock. The general equilibrium is characterized by a closed-form recursion in the CARA-normal case. Incomplete markets introduce a risk premium on private equity, which reduces the demand for investment. As compared to complete markets, the steady state can thus have both a lower capital stock due to investment risk, and a lower interest rate due to precautionary savings. Furthermore, the anticipation of high real interest rates in the future feeds back into high risk premia and low investment in the present, thus slowing down convergence to the steady state. Our results highlight the importance of private risk premia for capital accumulation and business cycles.     

Time-varying international diversification and the forward premium

This paper reproduces the slope of the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) regression for ten country pairs within one standard deviation under rational expectations. We propose an infinite horizon dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets. Heterogeneous investors experience varying risk aversion as a result of habit formation.The underlying mechanism of the model relies on varying international diversification in the investors' portfolio choice decision. In response to their changing habit levels, investors' hedging desire varies over time. This leads to adjustments in interest rates. The habit-induced investment decisions are negatively correlated with movements in the exchange rate. This results in a negative correlation between interest rates and expected exchange rates, as implied by a negative UIP slope.Depending on the magnitude of habits, the model is capable of reproducing positive as well as negative UIP slopes, as seen empirically in the data.     

A simplified approach to measuring bond duration

Because interest rates vary over time, the realized return on a fixed-income investment will depend on the price at which the instrument is ultimately liquidated and the rate at which interim cash flows are reinvested. This variation in realized return, known as interest-rate risk, should be addressed by both individual and institutional investors. Tools for measuring the impact and adjusting for the effects of interest rate changes on fixed-income instrument performance have long been available with duration and its companion adjustment factor, convexity. In this article, a simplified alternative to the traditional complex duration calculation is developed and demonstrated. Thus, anyone who can calculate a bond price can quickly estimate the interest rate risk associated with a bond as well as calculate the expected bond price change for a given change in market yield-to-maturity.     

PRIVATE EQUITY: SOURCES AND USES

Private equity capital is playing a large and growing role in the funding of small to medium-sized, high-growth businesses. Today's private equity investment typically takes the form of purchase of a minority interest in a post-start-up, high-technology company followed by an IPO a few years later. A large number of such investors are scouring the markets for new investment possibilities and the competitive pressures are growing.
Although private equity investors can and often do add significant value to a company, private equity is potentially expensive, in terms of both loss of ownership and loss of control over long-term strategic decisions of the company. Owner-managers who want to retain as much of both as possible are advised to install more formalized business procedures, expand the company's outside relationships, and become more familiar with the company's financial needs and options. These changes should reduce capital needs, reduce the costs of private equity funding, and increase negotiating leverage when dealing with large, sophisticated private capital investors.     

净现值与内部收益率在投资决策中的选用

净现值和内部收益率是投资决策中最常用的两个主要指标,但是,通过深入分析我们发现,后者在满足净效益最大化决策目标、假设条件的经济合理性以及普遍适用性三个方面均存在严重缺陷,因而不是一个可靠的项目价值衡量指标,最多只能用作决策的参考,不能用作项目取舍的依据。     

A Nonparametric Model of Term Structure Dynamics and the Market Price of Interest Rate Risk

This article presents a technique for nonparametrically estimating continuous-time diffusion processes that are observed at discrete intervals. We illustrate the methodology by using daily three and six month Treasury Bill data, from January 1965 to July 1995, to estimate the drift and diffusion of the short rate, and the market price of interest rate risk. While the estimated diffusion is similar to that estimated by Chan, Karolyi, Longstaff, and Sanders (1992) , there is evidence of substantial nonlinearity in the drift. This is close to zero for low and medium interest rates, but mean reversion increases sharply at higher interest rates.     

Measuring Investment Risk Based on Tail Thickness

In recent years, both institutional andindividual investors have come to rely heavilyupon techniques for analyzing (defining andmeasuring) risk. In this respect, the issue thatcontinues to require the attention of academicresearchers and practitioners alike is how toconcisely define investment risk and, moreimportantly, how to best measure it. Selecting anappropriate risk definition involves trade-offsamong ease of measurement, forecast ability, andintuition of individual investors. The purpose ofthis paper is to present an alternative index formeasuring unconditional (or total) risk. Theproposed measure reflects behavior in general, andthickness in particular, of the lower tail of thedistribution of returns. We therefore argue itprovides a more useful and reasonable indexbecause, unlike measures frequently used, itsestimation depends upon the most relevant datafrom the sample distribution. We describe riskanalysis based on lower tail behavior and identifyits advantages over existing methods. Finally,using data of weekly returns to the CREF StockFund, we provide an empirical example toillustrate the technique.     

次贷危机对国内银行外币债券投资的影响分析

作为全球规模最大、流动性最好的市场,美国固定收益市场一直是国外投资者追求稳定收益回报的首选地。文章比较了我国相对于其他国家,在美国固定收益市场的投资规模、品种及投资特点,重点分析了随金融市场动荡的加剧,国内商业银行外币债券的持仓变动,以及次贷危机对其外币债券投资造成的潜在损失,建议商业银行应采取更为审慎的投资策略,降低风险资产的投资比例。     

Which Institutional Investors Trade Based on Private Information About Earnings and Returns?

Recent work suggests that institutional investors execute profitable trades based on private information about earnings and returns. We provide new evidence on the prevalence and sources of such informed trading by (1) testing for the creation and liquidation of positions based on private information, (2) introducing private information proxies that reflect the size and nature of an institution's position in each portfolio firm, and (3) using a methodology that examines multiple investor characteristics simultaneously at the institution‐firm level. We find that changes in ownership by institutions with large positions in a firm are consistent with informed trading. However, other previously documented proxies for private information produce results more consistent with risk‐based trading (e.g., investment style) or insignificant in the presence of other proxies (e.g., fiduciary type). We also find that informed trading is more prevalent in small firms and when the large positions are taken by investment advisers and large institutions.     

Factors Influencing Interest Rates on Delinquent Property Tax Certificates

This study examines the market for delinquent property tax certificates, a commonly used enforcement mechanism in property tax systems around the United States. We model the value of such certificates using a continuous-time framework and propose a statistical model that allows testing for factors that affect interest rates charged by investors who purchase the certificates as investment instruments. Using sample data from tax certificate sales in Florida from 1982 to 2000, we find that interest rates on certificates are negatively and significantly related to assessed property value and homestead status, and positively related to local ownership. We find an inverse relationship between interest rates and the number of certificates purchased by the certificate investor, indicating a significant clientele effect in this market. We also find that the implied effective tax rate is positively related to the interest rates charged by investors. Overall, the findings provide insight into the function of this unique market niche.     

民资入铁仍需破冰前行

《意见》体现出铁道部进一步开放的决心,但民资入铁能否获得公平的市场待遇、利益如何保障尚存疑问5月18日,铁道部发布《关于鼓励和引导民间资本投资铁路的实施意见》,进一步明确民间资本投资铁路的领域、方式及相关保障措施,并特别强调"对民间资本不单     

美联储政策变化、国际资本流动与宏观经济波动

本文构建包含国际投资者、外资企业和银行流动性冲击的DSGE模型来探究美联储货币政策变动和政策不确定性对我国宏观经济的影响和作用机制。研究发现:(1) 美联储加息会导致我国产出、投资和通货膨胀的下降、汇率贬值、国际资本外流和银行系统流动性紧张。随着金融摩擦程度的增加和银行杠杆率的上升,美联储加息对我国产出、投资和资产价格的负面影响会进一步增强。(2) 美联储货币政策不确定性的增加会直接导致外资企业的投资、劳动需求和产出的下降,并对我国总产出、总投资和资产价格产生明显的负向外溢效应,进一步加剧我国宏观经济的波动。(3)为应对美联储的利率变动,适当限制国际资本流动能有效稳定我国经济波动和改善社会福利,而实施固定汇率和央行盯住美国利率的政策会加大宏观经济的波动,并导致社会福利下降。     

The Valuation of Multivariate Contingent Claims in Discrete Time Models

There are several examples in the literature of contingent claims whose payoffs depend on the outcomes of two or more stochastic variables. Familiar cases of such claims include options on a portfolio of options, options whose exercise price is stochastic, and options to exchange one asset for another. This paper derives risk neutral valuation relationships (RNVRs) in a discrete time setting that facilitate the pricing of such complex contingent claims in two specific cases: joint lognormally distributed underlying variables and constant proportional risk aversion on the part of investors, and joint normally distributed underlying variables and constant absolute risk aversion preferences, respectively. This methodology is then applied to the valuation of several interesting complex contingent claims such as multiperiod bonds, multicurrency option bonds, and investment options.     

Real Estate Fund Flows and the Flow-Performance Relationship

Convexity in the flow-performance relationship of traditional asset class mutual funds is widely documented, however it cannot be assumed to hold for alternative asset classes. This paper addresses this shortcoming in the literature by examining the flow-performance relationship for real estate funds, specifically open-end, direct-property funds. This investment vehicle is designed to provide the risk-return benefits of private market real estate and is available to retail investors in many countries across the globe. An understanding of fund flow dynamics associated with this investment vehicle is of particular interest due to the liquidity risk associated with holding an inherently illiquid asset in an open-end structure. Our analysis draws on the theoretical foundations provided in the literature on mutual fund flows, performance chasing, liquidity risk, participation costs and dynamics across market cycles. We focus on German real estate funds from 1990 to 2010 as this is the largest market globally and there is a high level of confidence in the data. The results show that real estate fund investors chase past performance at the aggregate level and the relationship between flows and relative performance is asymmetric (i.e., convex) at the individual fund level. Fund-level liquidity risk tends to weaken convexity, while sensitivity increases with higher participation costs. We find the flow-performance relationship varies across time, though our interpretation is asset and investment vehicle specific. The implications are applicable to investors and fund managers of open-end, direct-property funds and, more broadly, other alternative asset funds where the underlying asset may not be liquid.     

Mortgage convexity

Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS duration function as large-scale shocks to the quantity of interest rate risk that must be borne by professional bond investors. I develop a simple model in which the risk tolerance of bond investors is limited in the short run, so these fluctuations in MBS duration generate significant variation in bond risk premia. Specifically, bond risk premia are high when aggregate MBS duration is high. The model offers an explanation for why long-term rates could appear to be excessively sensitive to movements in short rates and explains how changes in MBS duration act as a positive-feedback mechanism that amplifies interest rate volatility. I find strong support for these predictions in the time series of US government bond returns.