中国省际区域经济差距演进及协调发展

实现区域协调发展是新时代中国区域高质量发展的必然要求。改革开放以来,中国省际区域经济差距经历了差距拉大—逐渐缩小—缓慢增大—逐渐缩小—维持不变的过程,逐步趋于收敛,其深层原因在于经济发展基础、资本投入、区域要素配置、区域要素使用和制度因素的地区异质性。推进区域经济协调发展,要不断加强对中西部地区的资本投入,优化资源配置,提高全要素生产率,提升开放水平,推进贸易高质量发展,完善与区域协调发展总体战略要求相适应的宏观区域政策和区域管理体制。     

要素市场扭曲、区域差异与R&D投入

本文利用要素市场扭曲指数及中国高技术产业1997～2009年省际面板数据,考察了要素市场扭曲对R&D投入的影响及区域差异。结果表明,要素市场扭曲对R&D资本投入和R&D人力投入有着不同的影响,抑制了R&D资本投入增长,促进了R&D人力投入;而且其对两者的影响都存在着显著的区域差异。在此基础上,运用门槛检验方法对这种区域差异的影响因素进行了探讨,研究发现,在区域经济发展水平、人力资本水平、财政收入、产权结构和对外开放程度等因素的不同门槛值区间,要素市场扭曲对高技术产业R&D投入的影响程度和方向都存在着明显的差异。     

区域产业结构优化的人力资本战略需求研究

人力资本是区域经济增长决定性动因,而产业结构则反映区域资源配置与资源转换能力即财富创造能力的高低。在人力资本和产业结构优化的互动过程中,更需要从战略的角度提高人力资本水平,以推动区域经济协调增长,包括构建多元化的投资,增加人力资本投资存量;发展多元化教育模式,促进人力资本结构优化;优化人力资本配置结构,提高人力资本使用效率;缩小区域产业结构差距,建立地区间人力资本良性循环机制等。     

改革开放以来中国经济增长动力转换的时空特征

基于中国1978~2012年的省级面板数据,采用检验后的超越对数生产函数的随机前沿模型,利用两套资本存量核算方法,对中国经济增长动力的来源及其时空特征进行分析,并对2008年金融危机的4万亿元投资政策进行了效率评价。研究结果表明,中国属于典型的投资主导型经济,资本投入是中国经济增长持续稳定的最主要来源,TFP贡献率呈现逐年下降的趋势;中国经济增长动力由改革开放初期的资本、劳动力和TFP三驾马车平衡拉动,形成了现阶段的资本投入与TFP反向角力态势;区域经济差距主要源于资本投入与TFP双重差异,但TFP差异是最重要因素;4万亿元经济刺激政策下中国经济复苏属于典型的“投资主导型复苏”,是以牺牲中国生产率为代价的,TFP在2008年后呈现断崖式下降,平均拉低中国TFP达0.23~0.32个百分点。     

China's total factor productivity estimates by region, investment sources and ownership

This paper constructs China national and provincial physical capital and human capital for the period 1984–2006. The estimation of physical capital is extended to the use of sources of fund and ownership of fund. The growth accounting framework is used to calculate the output, input and total factor productivity growth rates. The relative variance method is used to compare the relative importance to output growth by input growth and productivity growth. The empirical findings show that although output growth in post-reform China has been contributed much by growth in total factor productivity, output volatility has relied more on input growth, and TFP growth has not been supported by complementary changes. There are regional differences when looking at the performance of individual growth rates.     

Industrial energy efficiency: A look at the data

It is extremely difficult to make a precise, quantitative assessment of the impact of the myriad of factors affecting the improvement in industrial energy efficiency. It is certainly not correct to conclude that housekeeping measures alone have led to the observed improvement. Changing product mix among four digit SIC industries within the same two digit classification, variations in capacity utilization (returns to scale) and energy price increases as well as technological innovations have all contributed to part of the realized reduction in energy use per dollar value added over the period of investigation. Unfortunately, data limitations as well as modeling weaknesses prohibit an exact delineation of the impact of each of the factors on the increase in energy efficiency. The best that can be done—and quite convincingly so—is to qualitatively show that unequivocally these factors had an impact on the efficiency with which energy was used in the manufacturing process for the ten most energy intensive industries in the period 1971–1976.     

资本市场开放推动经济均衡发展和技术创新

中国经济发展的不均衡影响到发展的可持续性,本文重点讨论了对经济不均衡发展的承受能力和转向均衡发展的有效路径,考察了对经济竞争力有重要影响的制度改革、人力资源成本、内外投资环境和规模效应等四个方面的因素,以期通过对这些要素进行合理调整,借助资本市场开放,推进制度创新和技术创新,在保持竞争力的情况下,优化产业结构,使经济均衡发展。     

社会资本与区域经济创新

成功的区域经济往往表现出较强的区域创新能力,这也成为企业在区域经济中得以成功的重要因素。社会资本理论在社会学、经济学等方面的研究和发展为区域经济创新提供了一个崭新的视角。社会资本概念体现了区域创新中多个主体交互作用的动态过程这一特性,它对区域创新的形成与保持具有重要作用。     

高碳产业集群绿色增长的实证分析

本文通过实证的方法分析1998-2008年中国高碳产业集群的增长状况,阐明了投入要素对产生集群成长的贡献率,并在C-D生产函数基础上,把资本、劳动力、能源、CO2排放和集聚度作为投入要素,建立了高碳产业集群绿色增长的实证分析模型。研究发现,国内高碳产业集群的增长主要依赖于资本和能源,而劳动力、集聚度贡献不大,CO2排放往往成为其增长的重大阻力。     

区域智力资本与区域经济发展

本文通过评价2006年我国31个省(直辖市、自治区)的区域智力资本水平来探索其对区域经济发展的作用.研究发现,区域智力资本与区域经济发展具有较强的正相关性,并且区域智力资本每提高1%GDP则提高0.815%,区域智力资本的构成要素,即区域人力资本、区域关系资本、区域结构资本和区域创新资本也都与区域经济发展有着显著的正相关关系,但它们在对经济发展的贡献度上存在一定的差异性.     

Rate of return regulation and the Le Chatelier principle

This paper examines whether rate-of return regulation alters the input quantities firms use to produce their selected output level when the corresponding input prices change, in a manner similar to the Le Chatelier principle. More specifically, would the change in a rate regulated firm’s input quantity due to a change in its input price be less price elastic than the unregulated firm’s change in the input quantity due to a change in its input price. We follow Färe and Logan (1986), Nelson and Wohar (1983) in estimating a rate regulated cost function and capital input share system of equations. Using a 1992–2000 panel of 34 US major investor-owned electric utilities, empirical results indicate that the regulated own-input price elasticities of demand for labor and fuel are less price elastic than their corresponding unregulated own-input price elasticities of demand (a Le Chatelier principle type effect). Having a fuel clause (1) reduces the firm’s willingness to substitute from fuel to either non-fuel (capital, labor) input when the price of fuel rises, and (2) enhances the firm’s willingness to substitute from non-fuel inputs to fuel when the price of non-fuel inputs rises.     

Special Issue

The role of informal venture capital in entrepreneurial process and economic development is increasingly recognized by scholars and policy-makers around the world. Much of the attention that this form of financing has received during the last couple of decades is due to its potential to bridge the regional equity gap. This study is concerned with regional distribution of informal venture capital and factors explaining the allocation of informal investments, and it is based on a large random sample of informal venture capital investors in Sweden. The key findings are that the informal venture capital market in Sweden shows a considerable concentration in metropolitan areas and university cities. Further, investments conducted in these places are allocated in proportion to the new business formation rate and concentration of technology-based firms, while the only factor that provides some explanation for the location of informal investments in the peripheral regions is the proportion of the regional population that is considering starting their own business. Finally, there is a small but significant reallocation of informal venture capital from peripheral regions to metropolitan areas and university cities, which shows that the informal venture capital market in Sweden contributes rather to sustaining the regional equity gap than to bridging it.     

Local taxation and the consequences of revenue distribution patterns

The economy of a small region. is modeled as an eighteen-equation system describing production, consumption, income distribution, factor supply, and a government sector. The government uses: independent taxes on land rents and capital rentals to collect revenue equal to 20% of what land rents would be in an untaxed equilibrium and distributes the revenue to local residents in four different patterns. The distribution of the tax revenue, as well as the mobility of the factor taxed, generates distinct patterns of impacts on regional population, capital stock and production structure wages rents and the incidence of the taxes.     

Can China realise its energy-savings goal by adjusting its industrial structure?

To investigate whether China can realise its energy-savings goal by 2020 through adjustments to its industrial structure, this study proposes a dynamic input–output multi-objective optimisation model. According to this model, the objectives to be achieved include the maximum gross domestic product and employment, and the minimum energy consumption, where the constraints are the sectoral dynamic input–output balance, labour and energy supply, and sectoral production capacity. The four best solutions are screened from the Pareto-optimal front. The study findings show that the energy intensities in 2020 would decrease by 42.8%, 43.5%, 42.9%, and 43.4% in the four scenarios when compared to their 2002 levels. This means that China can fully achieve its planned energy-savings target for 2020. In order to ensure that the industrial structure is optimised for the future, sectoral capital investments should be regulated by China's government and efforts to improve energy efficiency should be maintained.     

人力资本积聚差异的区域经济增长影响力研究——以浙江和陕西两省为例

从目前大部分的学术成果来看,区域经济发展差异的理论和实证主要集中在物质资本的投入和形成以及无形的制度创新方面;而人力资本对经济增长的影响研究方面,现有的成果也主要集中在教育投资对经济增长的影响方面。本文从区域经济增长和人力资本积聚的角度出发,以浙江省和陕西省的实际数据为例,通过计量经济模型对人力资本积聚水平和区域经济发展之间的关系进行了数据分析和理论分析。     

Technological biases in U.S. aggregate production

The impact of technological change on income distribution and the output mix in the United States is examined. For given output prices and factor endowments, technological change is found to be pro-import, pro-export, proinvestment, pro-government, and anti-consumption biased, and it favors labor much more than capital.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the University of Rochester; I am grateful to the participants to this seminar for their comments and suggestions. I also benefitted from the comments of two anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer obviously applies.     

我国可再生能源发电产业区域发展能力评价

正确评估我国各省区可再生能源发电产业的发展能力,是制定产业规划、优化资源配置、促进产业快速发展的前提。论文以区域产业发展理论和可持续发展理论为基础构建了评价指标体系,并运用AHP(层次分析法)对全国各省区的可再生能源发电产业发展能力进行了综合评价。     

Redistribution and regional development under tax competition

This paper considers how capital tax competition affects transfer and development policies in the presence of regional income disparity. In each country, development policies determine the number of rich (poor) regions that (do not) engage in production activities, while transfer policies redistribute income between rich and poor regions. The mix of transfer and development policies is inefficient under tax competition: conditional on the equilibrium tax rate, too much revenue is spent on development policies and too little on transfer policies. This analysis of the expenditure mix implies that development policies are used as a means of regional redistribution even if transfer policies are efficient instruments for this purpose. Moreover, it is shown that the overall level of public expenditure may be too high because of the possibility of over-development.     

Interregional Input–Output Modelling in Indonesia: A Constrained Growth Rate Approach with Endogenous Investment

In interregional input–output (IO) models, investment can be endogenized in many different ways, varying from dynamic Leontief-type solutions to computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. However, large versions of these models are difficult to implement because of the absence of the required data. In this paper, a different, less data-demanding treatment of regional investment is presented for an interregional IO forecasting model in which a simultaneous solution is given for regional GDP by industry, on the one hand, and for regional aggregate investment, on the other hand. In this way, investment plays its role as a disaggregate demand factor by industry and region, as well as being an aggregate supply constraint on regional capital stock at the same time. Some empirical results are presented for a 27-region model in Indonesia, which has been used by the government during the preparations for the new national 5-year plan for 1994–1999.     

Investment in organizational capital

Organizational capital is a specific form of capital that firms accumulate. It relates to the development of codes, technical languages, practical arrangements about how the work is done and to the creation of an organizational culture. The distinctive feature of this form of capital is the fact that it does not contribute directly to an output result. Instead, it can be thought as creating the correct environment for the human factor to maximize its capability of generating value, that is, organizational capital works as an external effect on the accumulation of the human capital input. Nevertheless, organizational capital is a form of capital and therefore it has an investment process associated with it. The paper considers the process of investment in this form of capital and recognizes that it introduces important changes over the firm's profit maximization problem. The problem gains new features relating to its dynamic nature and a condition that guarantees saddle‐path stability can be derived. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.