我国能源消费与经济增长的实证研究

随着中国经济的迅速崛起,能源消费量不断增长,能源环境和经济的可持续发展十分重要.本文在1980-2006年统计数据的基础上,运用协整理论,误差修正模型和Granger因果关系检验理论,从不同的时间序列对中国石油消费和经济增长之间的关系进行了实证研究.结论表明,中国石油消费与经济增长之间存在长期均衡的正相关关系、短期动态关系和单向因果关系,并就相关问题得出了相应的结论.     

内蒙古自治区信贷增长和经济发展的计量分析

本文通过对内蒙古自治区1952年～2008年的贷款余额和地区生产总值进行计量分析,对我区的信贷投放与经济增长之间的数量关系进行了分析。结果显示：我区经济增长和信贷投放之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系．并且地区经济发展水平对金融发展水平具有决定性的影响,地区生产总值每增加1％,贷款余额增加0．99％。而贷款增长不是地区生产总值增长的Granger原因,即到目前为止银行信贷尚未发挥出促进地区经济增长所应有的作用。     

山东省信贷和经济增长的协整分析

本文利用计量理论，对山东省1978年至2003年间信贷增长和GDP的时间序列数据进行了协整检验和Granger果关系检验，结果表明：1978年以来山东省信贷增长和经济增长之间存在长期的稳定关系．信贷扩张则区域经济繁荣，信贷紧缩则经济萎缩，信贷是经济增长的Granger原因。最后，根据检验结果提出了相应的政策建议．以使信贷政策能够更好地为经济发展服务。     

金融发展与经济增长相互关系的实证分析

本文以辽宁省相关数据为例就区域金融发展与经济增长关系作以实证分析。结论表明:(1)利用回归分析发现,信贷市场对经济增长影响作用还有大的空间;(2)通过协整分析检验也发现,区域经济增长与金融发展存在不协同效应;(3)通过Granger因果检验发现金融发展与经济增长、金融投资与经济增长均不存在因果导向关系。建议在我国以银行为主导的金融结构促进经济发展的模式中,提高信贷资金的使用效率,优化信贷资源的配置还需进一步的努力。     

江西高等教育发展与经济增长的动态关系——基于ECM模型的实证检验

运用BcM模型对江西高等教育发展和经济增长的动态关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,两者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;江西经济增长是高等教育发展Granger原因．而高等教育发展不是经济增长的Granger原因;从长期看,经济增长对高等教育发展促进效应大于高等教育发展对经济增长的促进效应。政府为此应该采取相关对策促进高等教育和区域经济协调持续的发展。     

企业负债率:形成我国货币政策区域效果差异的重要因素

在我国区域经济层面上,存在“高(低)负债率、低(高)信贷增长”的现象。东部沿海发达省区企业负债水平较低,信贷增长却较高,而中西部落后地区的情况则相反。在我国货币政策传导以信贷渠道为主的情况下,各区域经济的企业负债水平差异,会通过对当地信贷投放的反向制约机制,致使全国统一的货币信贷政策产生不同的区域效应。降低中西部地区企业的负债率水平、改善其货币政策的信贷传导效果,关键在于提高该地区企业的运行效率。     

货币政策信贷渠道的经济区域效应研究——基于我国31个省际面板数据的经验证据

本文以2005年1月—2010年12月我国31个省份的月度数据为研究样本,运用面板向量自回归模型(Panel-VAR)对我国货币政策信贷渠道的传导效果进行了实证检验,研究结果表明:我国货币政策信贷渠道的传导效果存在明显的区域差异,对于经济发达地区来说,信贷投放在促进经济高速增长的同时,并不会带来显著的通货膨胀压力;而对于经济较发达地区和落后地区而言,信贷的投放并未有力推动经济的增长,反而会带来较为明显的通货膨胀压力。     

低碳信贷——我国商业银行绿色信贷创新性研究

一、低碳经济发展对我国商业银行开展低碳信贷的需求 低碳经济是指转变传统的高碳经济增长模式,改走低碳环保之路,实现以低能耗、低排放、低污染、高效率为主要特征的新型经济发展模式.实质是能源高效利用、清洁能源开发、降低碳排放量问题,核心是提升能效技术、节能减排技术、可再生能源技术创新,产业结构创新和低碳产品开发.     

绿色信贷和银行财务绩效的动态交互影响关系——基于中国29家商业银行的实证研究北大核心CSSCI

基于2007-2016年我国29家商业银行数据,本文实证检验了绿色信贷和银行财务绩效的关系。结果表明二者之间存在正向的动态交互影响关系:①当期绿色信贷对未来(当期)银行财务绩效具有(没有)显著的正向影响,说明绿色信贷对财务绩效的改善作用存在滞后效应。②当期财务绩效对当期(未来)绿色信贷具有(没有)显著的正向影响,反映出商业银行会根据财务状况相机决定绿色信贷投放数量。本文研究有助于明确商业银行开展绿色信贷的驱动因素和经济后果,对完善绿色信贷激励政策具有一定的启示意义。     

低碳信贷——我国商业银行绿色信贷创新性研究

低碳经济发展对我国商业银行开展低碳信贷的需求低碳经济是指转变传统的高碳经济增长模式,改走低碳环保之路,实现以低能耗、低排放、低污染、高效率为主要特征     

Pricing the Risks of Default: A Note on Madan and Unal

In their well-known article, Madan and Unal (1998) presented one of the first intensity-based credit risk models. In this approach the default intensity is directly linked to the market value of the firm's equity. In order to derive the probability of default Madan and Unal have to solve a partial differential equation (PDE). Here, we show that one of the transformations in the derivation of the solution of this PDE is not correct and analyze the difference between the correct solution of the PDE and the solution based on the incorrect transformation. As a consequence of the transformation error the credit risk of a debtor is systematically underestimated.     

农村社区居家养老服务需求强度的实证分析——基于辽宁省S镇农村老年人的问卷调查

基于辽宁省S镇农村社区老年人居家养老服务需求调查发现,农村社区居家养老更加符合农村老年人的养老意愿。依据克雷顿·奥尔德弗"ERG"需求层次理论,将农村老年人需求分为生活照料、医疗保健、精神赡养三个层次。通过李克特量表法衡量居家养老服务需求强度得出,农村老年人所需的医疗保健和精神赡养与生活照料相比需求强度较高。运用spearman相关系数模型测算了年龄、性别、生活自理能力、婚姻状况、健康自评等因素对居家养老服务需求强度的影响程度。为此,我国发展农村居家养老服务需要尊重老年人的养老意愿,以居家养老服务需求强度为依据实施精准供给,积极完善农村社会化养老服务政策支持体系,逐步满足农村社区老年人的养老需求。     

中国期货价格的时变跳跃性及对现货价格影响的研究

期货价格受到异常消息的影响会发生跳跃行为,本文通过构建ARMAJI-GARCH模型刻画了我国金属期货的自相关性、条件异方差性以及动态跳跃性,并分析其跳跃行为对现货市场的影响。经研究表明,期货价格具有时变跳跃特征,铜期货的跳跃强度受到滞后一期跳跃强度的显著影响,铝期货的跳跃强度不仅受到自身滞后的影响,还受到跳跃强度残差的影响;当期和滞后一期的期货跳跃强度均对现货的收益率和波动性形成影响,期货价格的跳跃行为起到价格发现的作用。     

The relative influence of competitive intensity and business strategy on the relationship between financial leverage and performance

This study empirically investigates the effects of competitive intensity and business strategy on the relationship between financial leverage and the performance of firms. Based on a sample of US manufacturing firms, this study confirms the hypothesis that the cost of debt is higher for product differentiation firms than cost leadership firms. Furthermore, the results indicate that competitive intensity has a negative effect on the leverage-performance relationship, suggesting that competition acts as a substitute for debt in limiting manager's opportunistic behavior. These findings reinforce the need to consider moderating factors such as strategic choice and the environment in which a firm operates when investigating the effects of leverage on performance.     

Taming polysemous signals: The role of marketing intensity on the relationship between financial leverage and firm performance

This study traces the degree of integration and volatility spillover effect between the Pakistani and leading foreign stock markets by analyzing the Meteor shower hypothesis. Daily data are used from nine worldly equity markets (KSE 100, NIKKEI 225, HIS, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DOW JONES, GADXI, FTSE 350 and DFMGI) for the period of 2005 to 2014. First, we used the whole data set and after that we split data set into two subsets, First subset of data contains the era of global financial crisis of 2008 from 2005 to 2009 and Second subset is after global financial crisis time period from 2010 to 2014 (The global crisis prevailed till end of 2009). By following the Hamao et al. (1990) technique the univariate GARCH type models are employed to explore the dynamic linkages between Pakistani and leading foreign stock markets. The results from whole data set illustrate that there is mixed co‐movements between leading foreign stock markets and Pakistani stock market. The results from both subsets provide an evidence that there is a unidirectional mean and volatility spillover effect from S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, DJI and DFMGI to KSE 100. Also we found bidirectional spillover effect between DFMGI and KSE 100 from both subsets of data. We concluded that there is only one indirect linkage through which may the information transmitted to KSE 100. This linkage is developed due to the co‐movement among KSE 100, DFMGI and NASDAQ 100 in crisis period. This integration between these markets may provide a sign of indirect linkage. It also exhibits the volatility in Pakistan stock market returns is instigated through direct effects as well as indirect effects. Our study brings important conclusions for financial institutions, portfolio managers, market players and academician to diagnose the nature and level of linkages between the financial markets.     

数字经济对我国碳排放的影响研究

基于2013-2020年的30个省份数据构建面板数据模型,从碳排放总量和碳排放强度两个视角研究数字经济发展对区域碳排放的影响。研究发现：数字经济的发展有效地降低了人均碳排放量、碳排放增量与碳排放增速,数字经济与碳排放强度之间存在倒“U”形关系,数字经济与碳排放强度、边际碳排放强度的关系呈现区域性特征,在省域层面数字经济对边际碳排放强度的影响不存在明显的空间效应,数字经济对碳排放增长率的影响存在基于产业结构优化、人口集聚、城镇化的遮掩效应。     

The Effects of Labour on Accounting Choice in Canada

This study examines the effects of labour considerations on accounting choice in Canada. Two potential labour‐related incentives are considered: ability to pay and employee attraction and retention. Measures of these incentives are developed based on Canadian data: unionization for ability‐to‐pay incentives, and labour intensity and the percentage of white‐collar employees for the attract and retain incentives. Our results indicate that ability‐to‐pay incentives, measured by unionization, are not associated with depreciation policies in Canada. In contrast, the findings provide mixed support for the attract‐and‐retain perspective, because labour intensity was significantly correlated with these choices, while the percentage of white‐collar employees was marginally significant.     

长期资金市场对能源强度的影响研究——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

依据中国30个省(市)自治区1998~2013年面板数据,考量长期资金市场对能源强度的影响。结果表明,长期资金市场发展对东部地区能源强度下降影响较大,产业结构升级、人均 GDP 提高均有利于各地区能源强度下降,技术进步、对外贸易度对各地区能源强度的影响呈现出分化态势。鉴此,应充分发挥长期资金市场优势、促进产业结构升级、重视研发投入产出技术成果转化等,多渠道降低能源强度。     

An Empirical Investigation of the Effect of CFO Power on Disclosure Quality

We examine the association between chief financial officer (CFO) power and disclosure quality, measured using financial statement disaggregation disclosure and analyst forecast disclosure. Empirically, we validate that CFO power, measured by multiple dimensions, is positively associated with firms’ disclosure quality. We also find that this positive association between CFO power and disclosure quality is stronger when firms exhibit higher governance monitoring and accounting quality. Further analysis shows that our main results hold across multiple disclosure quality tests. Our findings are robust to addressing endogeneity issues using two-stage least squares, Heckman selection bias, and propensity score matching analyses. The results highlight the importance of CFO power for the accounting reporting process and decision-making.     

The cross-sectional effect of inflation on corporate investment and employment

This paper examines the cross-sectional effect of inflation on the investment and employment decisions. The paper shows that more heavily capitalized firms tend to have a greater reduction in the capital-labor ratio during an inflationary period. The paper also shows that firms with a higher cost of debt to wage ratios and a larger amount of depreciation shelter tend to use more labor in the inflationary period. Empirical results are generally consistent with these arguments. The authors wish to thank John Anderson, Jim Hodder, two anonymous referees and Cheng F. Lee, the Editor for their helpful comments. All remaining errors are ours.