人民币国际化:中国规避负估值效应的路径选择

随着各国对外资产与负债的迅速增长,估值效应对于对外净资产的调节作用也日益显现。美国通过正估值效应将其对外净负债缩小于无形之中,中国却因负估值效应无奈面对国民财富无偿转移的损失。美元本位是中美不同估值效应的始作俑者,人民币国际化则是解决中国困境的有效选择。     

从贸易调整渠道到金融调整渠道——国际金融外部调整理论的新发展

传统的开放宏观经济学认为一国的外部财富是贸易调整的结果,但是随着各国持有外部资产负债总量的迅速攀升,汇率和资产价格波动所产生的估值效应对外部财富的作用越来越显著。近年来,众多学者基于估值效应发展了一个新的外部调整渠道——金融调整渠道,极大地改变了人们对一国外部失衡调整的理解和认识。本文试图系统地评述这一外部调整机制的最新进展,以期为所有关注中国国际收支以及全球失衡问题的国内外学者提供新的研究视角和方法。     

上市公司估值

正请问,对上市公司估值应当如何做才能比较准确?(天津市黎欣)专家:我们一般先看企业的商业模式。企业的商业模式决定了估值模式:重资产型企业,如传统制造业,以净资产估值方式为主,盈利估值方式为辅;轻资产型企业,如服务业,以盈利估值方式为主,净资产估值方式为辅;互联网企业,以用户数、点击数和市     

跨期平滑还是风险分散?——对中国对外净资产“估值效应”的再考察北大核心CSSCISSCI

Gourinchas&Rey(2005)提出,衡量一国经济外部失衡要考虑资产"估值效应",而学界对估值效应起因的理解包括"跨期平滑消费"和"风险分散"两种思路,各自对应了可预期、未预期的估值效应。本文阐述了估值效应对外部均衡的调节机制,评价了两类估值效应对宏观经济的影响。实证研究中,本文根据中国样本数据估算外部失衡指标,并使用结构向量自回归(SVAR)与方差分解方法,具体展现了外部失衡的调节模式。本文发现,2010年之后未预期估值效应对外部失衡的影响增加,且未预期估值效应与宏观经济指标之间确实可能存在风险对冲的关联。同时,外部失衡对货币供给造成的冲击规模不断减小。上述实证结果说明,意愿结售汇制度一定程度上使货币供给对外汇储备存量变动的敏感性降低;同时,估算并理解"未预期估值损益",应成为货币当局应对"外部失衡"的一项重要工作。     

美国稳定资产估值的举措及对全球金融风险再分配的影响

资产估值不稳定是引发美国多次金融危机的重要原因。美国历史上每次金融危机发生的外在表现与具体危机的演变历程不尽相同,但资产估值剧烈波动总是不断在危机中出现。而稳定资产估值则是美国化解金融风险、应对金融危机的重要手段。其中,通过政府部门资产负债表的扩张修复企业和居民部门的资产负债表,是美国稳定资产估值的主要途径;财政货币政策一体化实施则是美国稳定资产估值的主要举措。同时,依托美元、美债在全球经济金融体系中的超然地位,美国稳定自身资产估值的举措会对美元、美债等产生直接影响,进而对全球资产估值稳定带来外溢效应,并影响全球金融风险再分配。鉴于此,我国既要在防范化解金融风险中树牢风险思维,把稳定资产估值摆到更加重要的位置,也要从资产负债表关联的角度去观察资产估值风险会不会演变为金融风险和公共风险,并积极增强金融风险全球再分配能力,降低美国稳定自身资产估值的举措给我国带来的风险外溢。     

资产的估值

资产价值的不断变化带来了估值问题。除了市场供求发生变化导致实体价值的变化外,单项资产的功能与其他资产的功能进行组合后,其功能价值发生的变化对估值方法的选择提出了新的要求。     

中国对外资产负债:金融发展的视角

当前我国对外资产负债规模较小,过早出现对外净资产,且对外资产、负债分别集中在国家外汇储备和FDI,很大程度上是金融发展滞后的结果。其好处是短期内金融风险小,但长期来看不利于金融深化和经济的持续健康发展。简单地限制外商直接投资,放松民间外汇持有和对外投资的限制,难以显著改善对外资产负债结构。应从根本上加快金融体制改革,大力发展金融市场,夯实资本合理流动的制度基础。     

净资产出资审验应注意的问题

一、审计是净资产验资的基础根据我国企业会计准则和《企业会计制度》的规定,资产计价一般采用历史成本法。由于种种原因,被审验单位资产的账面价值与可实现价值存在一定差额,如存货中存在过期、不适用、霉变或长期积压的实物,资产中含有大额长期待摊费用等,这就需要借助审计核实资产的合法性、真实性,在此基础上用资产评估的方法剔除不实的资产价值,来确定资产的实际价值,使净资产反映出其真实价值,降低净资产验资风险。1.以直接审计后的净资产作为验资的基础会计报表审计的基本要求,在核实资产、负债及净资产的基础上,确定被审验单位资产…     

美国对外资产负债间收益率差对美国外部失衡调整的影响研究述评

20世纪80年代末期,美国从净债权国转变为净债务国,经常账户逆差不断累积,对外负债规模急剧扩大,逐步形成金融市场导向的债务依赖型经济体。美国净国际投资头寸虽然为负值,但却明显小于经常账户赤字累积值,保持相对平稳,还在对外投资中持续获得正收益。这主要源于美国对外资产收益率高于对外负债回报率,二者之间存在收益率差。按照本文计算方法,2003—2016年,美国年均对外收益率差为2.26%。收益率差还通过收益效应、组合效应、时间效应和估值效应等方式,有效调整了美国外部失衡状态,使美国对外负债具有一定可持续性。     

外资银行进入对我国银行业效率影响的实证研究

本文选取我国银行业市场上占主要地位的14家银行1998~2007年的面板数据,就外资银行进入对我国银行业效率的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明:外资银行的进入使得我国银行的经营费用、净资产收益率和资产净利率降低,但由于技术外溢效应的作用,外资银行的进入使得我国银行的非利息收入得到一定提高。本文还根据实证分析结果,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Projections of pension fund solvency under alternative valuation regimes

This paper examines the impact of three alternative valuation regimes on perceived pension fund solvency. Deterministic valuation assumes smoothed valuation of assets and liabilities. National valuation is based on market valuation of assets and on smoothed valuation of liabilities. International valuation marks assets and liabilities to market values. Using closed-form methods based on the funding ratio return, we exemplify the dramatic effect that the choice of valuation approach has on long-horizon solvency projections.     

外资股权、外币资产负债结构对我国银行稳定性影响的研究

目前,国际资本流动影响我国银行稳定性主要通过两条路径：一是通过持有我国商业银行股权,二是通过改变商业银行的资产负债结构。本文运用15家股份制商业银行2006—2012年面板数据,从微观角度探讨了外资股权结构、外币资产负债结构对其稳定性造成的影响。实证结果表明：（1）外资股权对商业银行稳定性影响在不同银行之间存在着一定差异;（2）外币资产负债结构对于我国商业银行稳定性有明显影响。据此,本文从外资股权、外币资产负债结构方面提出了商业银行稳定性管理的建议。     

Adjustment of valuation inputs and its effect on value relevance of fair value measurement

The fair value accounting standards; i.e., FAS 157, FAS 157-3 and FAS 157-4, specify the circumstances where firms need to adjust valuation inputs to fair value measurements in response to changes in market conditions. Such an adjustment inherently involves substantial management judgment and is accompanied with transfers of assets and liabilities among the different levels of the fair value hierarchy. We study the effect of adjusting valuation inputs to reflect market variations on value relevance of fair value measurements by comparing the value relevance of fair value assets between the banks that make transfers of assets and the banks that make no transfers. Overall, we find a significant increase in value relevance of fair value measurements for banks that transferred assets into/out of the Level 3 category. Our study examines a challenging situation in the application of fair value standards; i.e., determining fair value when there is a change in market conditions. Fair value measurement under such a situation involves substantial management judgment and potential estimate errors and manipulation. Our findings provide useful information for researchers, regulators and accounting professionals to assess the market’s perception of the reliability of fair value information when management exercises substantial discretion in adjusting valuation inputs under changing market conditions.     

Harmonisation of Accounting Measurement Practices in the European Community

This study attempts to determine the level of accounting harmonisation in the European Community by examining selected measurement practices from the 1992/93 annual reports of companies from Belgium, Denmark. France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands. Portugal and the UK. Harmonisation is tested using the chi-square statistic and measured using the / index. The chi-square statistic tests for the equality of the proportions of accounting measurement methods across countries. The / index measures the extent of concentration around a particular accounting measurement method. The results reveal that accounting for foreign currency translation of assets and liabilities, treatment of translation differences, and inventory valuation are harmonised, while accounting for fixed asset valuation, depreciation, goodwill, research and development costs, inventory costing, and foreign currency translation of revenues and expenses are not harmonised. The results also demonstrate that the extent of harmonisation is greater among fairness oriented countries than among legalistic countries.     

Impact of Visibility and Investment Advisor Credibility on the Valuation Effects of High-Tech Cross-Border Acquisitions

Since foreign high-tech firms exhibit a high level of asymmetric information, there is much investor skepticism surrounding the potential benefits to US firms that acquire them. However, the investor perception may be more favorable when the acquisitions involve more visible targets and advice from investment banks with a strong reputation. Based on a sample of 503 high-tech cross-border acquisitions, bidding-firm shareholders experience positive but statistically insignificant valuation effects overall. However, bidder firms experience positive and significant valuation effects when the foreign high-tech target receives a high level of media attention and when the acquisition is endorsed by a top-tier investment bank. Visibility and credibility enhance the perceived benefits of acquiring foreign targets that have substantial intangible assets and a high level of asymmetric information.     

Life Insurance Liabilities at Market Value: An Analysis of Insolvency Risk, Bonus Policy, and Regulatory Intervention Rules in a Barrier Option Framework

This article takes a contingent claim approach to the market valuation of equity and liabilities in life insurance companies. A model is presented that explicitly takes into account the following: (i) the holders of life insurance contracts (LICs) have the first claim on the company's assets, whereas equity holders have limited liability; (ii) interest rate guarantees are common elements of LICs; and (iii) LICs according to the so‐called contribution principle are entitled to receive a fair share of any investment surplus. Furthermore, a regulatory mechanism in the form of an intervention rule is built into the model. This mechanism is shown to significantly reduce the insolvency risk of the issued contracts, and it implies that the various claims on the company's assets become more exotic and obtain barrier option properties. Closed valuation formulas are nevertheless derived. Finally, some representative numerical examples illustrate how the model can be used to establish the set of initially fair contracts and to determine the market values of contracts after their inception.     

Market Value Accounting in the Financial Services Sector

The past decade witnessed a deregulatory programme in Australia's financial sector. Market valuation of assets and liabilities has been required as a complement to historical costs in some cases, in others market values substitute for them. Interest in issues arising with market values has been heightened by the exposure draft on financial investments issued by the Australian Accounting Research Foundation in 1993. This article argues that the market valuation proposals offered in Exposure Draft 59 have not been argued effectively and explained sufficiently to secure their implementation.     

基于现金流模型的我国旅游业外汇风险暴露研究

汇率变动导致的国际市场需求变化会引起旅游业的外汇风险暴露。通过构建基于需求的经营性外汇风险暴露模型（经营性现金流模型）和旅游业加权汇率指数（TTWI）,采用2005—2011年国内上市旅游公司的数据,对我国旅游公司的经营性现金流进行实证分析。研究发现,有很大比例旅游公司的经营性活动暴露于外汇风险之下,其外汇风险暴露形式呈现出非线性、非对称和滞后性的特征。旅游公司在管理外汇风险暴露时,可通过投资于外币资产或使用外币负债在总现金流上分散汇率风险。     

谁在补贴美国?——美国对外资产负债规模及收益率差异分析

美国在对外净负债的情况下,其海外资产的收入仍超过其因对外债务支付的利息,这也就是不少学者所说的超级特权。通过对比美国与主要投资对象的资产负债头寸和收益率数据,我们发现亚洲出口大国和地区性金融中心为美国提供了资本补贴——既给美国提供大量廉价资本,又为美国在本地的投资提供高额回报。