Impact of conservation agriculture technology on household welfare in Zambia

This article examines the determinants and impact of conservation agriculture (CA) technology adoption on farm household welfare in Zambia. To account for selection bias from both observable and unobservable factors, an endogenous switching regression model is employed to estimate the impact of the technology on continuous outcomes like farm output, throughput accounting ratio (TAR), poverty gap, and severity of poverty. A recursive bivariate probit model is however used for the estimation of impact of adoption on a binary outcome like poverty headcount. The empirical findings demonstrate that the adoption of CA technology increases maize output, and farm TAR and reduces household poverty. Moreover, the results reveal that farmers’ years of schooling, social networks, access to credit, extension services, and machinery as well as soil quality positively influence adoption of CA technology.     

Floods,food security,and coping strategies: Evidence from Afghanistan

In this paper, we assess the long‐term effect of floods on food security (as measured by calorie and micronutrient consumption) by applying an instrumental variable approach to data from the Afghanistan National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment survey. To identify the determinants of this effect, we also estimate how floods affect per capita yearly household income and poverty status. We find that exposure to flooding during a 12‐month period decreased daily calorie consumption by approximately 60 kcal while increasing the probability of iron, vitamin A, and vitamin C deficiency by 11, 12, and 27 percentage points, respectively. Controlling for price shocks and income only marginally reduces this flood effect on food security, suggesting that impaired livelihoods (rather than price hikes) are its primary driver. We further determine that exposure to this natural disaster decreases income by about 3% and makes flood‐affected households about 3 percentage points more likely to be poor. Lastly, we show that experience of floods is strongly and significantly associated with lower diet quality and quantity, and with engaging in consumption smoothing coping strategies, such as buying food on credit and taking loans. These findings underscore the serious direct impact of floods on both diet and effective behavioral responses to such shocks while emphasizing the need for targeted micronutrient supplementation in disaster relief and food aid measures even after the period of natural disaster emergency.     

Does a “Blue Revolution” help the poor? Evidence from Bangladesh

The rapid growth in aquaculture production, globally and in Bangladesh is well documented. Over 2000–2010, per capita production of aquaculture grew 76%, while the consumer price of fish declined 45%. Previous studies have suggested pro‐poor effects of aquaculture based on fish production and consumption patterns. This study attempts to quantify the contribution of aquaculture to income growth and poverty reduction in Bangladesh, using household survey data and a microsimulation approach based on an expanded version of Deaton's concept of net benefit ratio. We estimate that aquaculture's contribution to income growth between 2000 and 2010 was 2.1%, including both price and quantity effects. This income growth was translated into poverty reduction of 1.7 percentage points. Although these estimates seem small, they represent almost 10% of the overall poverty reduction in Bangladesh during the first decade of the 21st century. Put differently, of the 18 million Bengalis who escaped poverty during 2000–2010, about 1.8 million of them managed to do so because of the rapid growth in aquaculture, which contributed to rural income while making fish more accessible to consumers.     

Exports,Gender Wage Gaps,and Poverty in Honduras

This paper identifies and estimates the reduction in poverty attributable to the improved opportunities that international trade integration offered to women in Honduras. The expansion of the export-oriented maquila sector has brought gender equality both in terms of employment and labour earnings. A simulation exercise shows that, at a given point in time, poverty in Honduras would have been 1.5 percentage points higher had the maquila sector not existed. Of this increase in poverty, 0.35 percentage points is attributable to the wage premium paid to maquila workers, 0.1 percentage points to the wage premium received by women in the maquila sector, and 1 percentage point to employment creation.     

Economywide effects of climate‐smart agriculture in Ethiopia

Climate‐smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under climate change. Few studies, however, quantify at the national scale CSA's economic effects or compare CSA to input‐intensive technologies, like fertilizer or irrigation. Such quantification may help with priority setting among competing agricultural investment options. Our study uses an integrated biophysical and economic modeling approach to quantify and contrast the economywide effects of CSA (integrated soil fertility management in our study) and input‐intensive technologies in Ethiopia's cereal systems. We simulate impacts for 20‐year sequences of variable weather, with and without climate change. Results indicate that adopting CSA on 25% of Ethiopia's maize and wheat land increases annual gross domestic product (GDP) by an average 0.18% (US$49.8 million) and reduces the national poverty rate by 0.15 percentage points (112,100 people). CSA is more effective than doubling fertilizer use on the same area, which increases GDP by US$33.0 million and assists 75,300 people out of poverty. CSA and fertilizer have some substitutability, but CSA and irrigation appear complementary. Although not a panacea for food security concerns, greater adoption of CSA in Ethiopia could deliver economic gains but would need substantial tailoring to farmer‐specific contexts.     

Seasonal Migration and Improving Living Standards in Vietnam

We use panel data methods to explore whether households in Vietnam used seasonal migration to increase their living standards during the 1990s. Using per capita expenditures as our primary measure of living standards and historical and latent network variables as instruments for migration, we can attribute 5.2 percentage points of annualized expenditure growth to increased migration. The results are robust to several alternative measures of living standards. As the estimates suggest migration accounts for a 3 percentage point decrease in the poverty headcount, we conclude migration played an important role in the improvement of living standards observed in Vietnam.     

Poverty Reduction Effects of Agricultural Technology Adoption: The Case of Improved Cassava Varieties in Nigeria

We use DNA‐fingerprinting to estimate the poverty reduction effect of adoption of improved cassava varieties in Nigeria. We estimate the counterfactual household income distribution of cassava producers by combining farm‐level treatment effects with a market‐level model. Our results suggest that adoption of improved cassava varieties has led to a 4.6 percentage point reduction in poverty, though this is sensitive to the measurement of adoption status. Therefore, accurate measurement of adoption is crucial for a more credible estimate of the poverty reduction effect of adoption. Our analysis also suggests that farmers who are more likely to be adopters are also likely to face higher structural costs. Addressing structural barriers that make improved technologies less profitable for the poor would therefore be important to increase the poverty reduction effect of improved cassava varieties.     

The effects of rising food prices on poverty in Mexico

We evaluate the impact of the rise in food prices during 2006–2008 on the poverty and extreme poverty rates in Mexico. We concentrate on the poor's consumption of staple foods, and analyze the change in their consumption brought about by changed prices. We also allow households receiving income from the farming and livestock sector to benefit from increases in prices of food products. We find a modest increase in poverty using 2006–2007 prices; however, there is a daunting effect on the poor once the 2008 prices are taken into account. After considering the positive effects of public policies announced in 2008, such as reduced taxes and tariffs on food products and greater subsidies to the extremely poor, the poverty rate measured through consumption increases from 25% to 33.5%, and the extreme poverty rate from 10.58% to 15.95%, given the increase in food prices. Further analysis using the theory of optimal taxes suggests policies oriented towards relieving the food price pressure on the Mexican poor should aim at lowering the prices of eggs, vegetable oil, milk, and chicken.     

Toward a green revolution in Africa: what would it achieve,and what would it require?

The current global food crisis has reemphasized the costliness of Africa's failure to achieve food security and poverty reduction. The instrument by which other more successful developing countries achieved these outcomes was a “Green Revolution” in agriculture. While previous research has provided largely discursive appraisals of the viability of an African Green Revolution, this article adopts a more rigorous methodology to address that question. First, an economy‐wide multimarket model, augmented with existing poverty–growth elasticities, is developed to assess the likely impacts of a rapid acceleration in food production (of the kind witnessed in previous Green Revolutions) on food prices, consumption and demand, farmer revenue, and poverty. Our results suggest that a rapid growth in staple production, together with more integrated regional markets, would reduce food prices by roughly 20–40% for consumers and 10–20% for producers among the major crops. This translates into a large rise in farm revenues, annual agricultural growth rates of 6.5% or higher, broader income growth and food security, and over 70 million Africans being lifted out of poverty. The article concludes by emphasizing the kinds of fundamental policy actions and resources that would be required for achieving these outcomes.     

Employment Dynamics and Linkages in the Rural Economy: Insights from Senegal

Evidence on rural wage employment is thin and lacks nuance for different employment sources, insights on dynamic effects, and an understanding of the channels of effects. We assess conceptually and empirically the direct and indirect welfare effects of entry and continuation in different types of wage employment in rural Senegal. Using panel data, fixed effects and first-difference estimation, we show substantial positive welfare and linkage effects. We find that participation in wage employment increases per capita income by 143%, and reduces poverty, poverty gap and food insecurity by, respectively, 63%, 89% and 48%. While the direct effect on income is larger for non-agricultural and contractual wage employment, the indirect income effects through self-employment are more pronounced for agricultural and casual wage employment. Our results imply that job creation is important for rural development, that wage employment in agriculture can lead to considerable growth multiplier effects, and that synergies exist between large-scale and small-scale agriculture.     

Ex post impacts of improved maize varieties on poverty in rural Ethiopia

Public agricultural research has been conducted in Africa for decades. While many studies have examined its aggregate impacts, few have investigated how it affects the poor. This paper helps fill this gap by applying a new procedure to explore the ex post impacts of improved maize varieties on poverty in rural Ethiopia. Plot‐level yield and cost changes due to adoption are first estimated using instrumental variable and marginal treatment effect techniques where possible heterogeneity is carefully accounted for. A backward derivation procedure is then developed to link treatment effect estimates with an economic surplus model to identify the counterfactual household income that would have existed without improved maize varieties. Poverty impacts are finally estimated by exploiting the differences between observed and counterfactual income distributions. Improved maize varieties have led to a 0.8–1.3 percentage drop of poverty headcount ratio and relative reductions of poverty depth and severity. However, poor producers benefit the least from adoption due to the smallness of their land holdings.     

新疆农业发展新模式:中介组织主导型市场农业

文章从近年来新疆农业产量增长,而农民收入增长缓慢这一背景出发,在全面分析中介组织主导型市场农业的基本架构及运行模式的基础上,指出新疆应转换“强调生产,忽视市场”的以生产为主导的农业增长模式,将中介组织主导型市场农业确立为新疆农业的增长模式。并对政府如何构建中介组织主导型市场农业提出了政策建议。     

Food policy and poverty in Indonesia: a general equilibrium analysis*

Rice is Indonesia's staple food and accounts for large shares of both consumers' budgets and total employment. Until recently, Indonesia was the world's largest importer, but rice import policy is now highly protectionist. Since early 2004, rice imports have been officially banned. Advocates of this policy say it reduces poverty by assisting poor farmers. Opponents say it increases poverty, stressing negative effects on poor consumers. This paper uses a general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy to analyse the effects of a ban on rice imports. The analysis recognises 1000 individual households, including all major socioeconomic categories, disaggregated by expenditures per person. It takes account of effects on each household's real expenditure and its income, operating through wages and returns to land and capital. The results indicate that the rice import ban raises the domestic price of rice relative to the import price by an amount equivalent to a 125 per cent tariff, six times the pre‐2004 tariff. Poverty incidence rises by a little under 1 per cent of the population and increases in both rural and urban areas. Among farmers, only the richest gain. These results are qualitatively robust to variations in key parametric assumptions.     

Poverty analysis using small area estimation: an application to conservation agriculture in Uganda

This article demonstrates the utility of small area estimation of poverty (SAEp) methods for researchers wishing to conduct a detailed welfare analysis as part of a larger survey of a small geographic area. This study applies SAEp methods as part of an impact assessment of a conservation agriculture production system in Eastern Uganda. Using SAEp, we estimate Foster–Greer–Thorbecke rural poverty indices, estimate the effects of per‐acre farm profit increases to poor households on the indices, and compare the findings to estimates of net returns from a field‐level evaluation of conservation agriculture for maize farmers. Results suggest that increasing the farm profits of the bottom 30% of households by $1.60 per‐acre per‐season would reduce rural poverty incidence by 1 percentage point. Available data on the net returns to conservation agriculture indicate that even these modest increases are achievable for few adopting households.     

Agricultural water management and poverty in Ethiopia

The main focus of this article is to explore whether access to selected agricultural water management (AWM) technologies has led to significant reduction in poverty and, if they did so, to identify which technologies had higher impacts. In measuring impact we estimated the average treatment effect for the treated on crop income and measured the differences in consumption expenditures per adult equivalent of those with access and without access using matched data. The estimated average treatment effect was significant and amounted to USD 82 per season. Moreover, there was 24 less poverty incidence among users of AWM technologies compared to nonusers. All technologies were found to have significant poverty reducing impacts with micro dams, deep wells, river diversions, and ponds leading to 37%, 26%, 11%, and 9% reduction in poverty incidence compared to rainfed system. Finally, our study identified the most important correlates of poverty on the basis this we made the policy recommendations to build assets (AWM technologies, livestock, etc); to enhance human resource development and improve the functioning of labor markets for enhanced impact of AWM technologies on poverty.     

新冠肺炎疫情对2020年农业农村发展的影响评估与应对建议

由于种养业季节性强、农民工流动性大、农村防护条件差,疫情对农业农村发展的影响具有全面性和持久性。研究显示,疫情防控导致的物流中断,家禽养殖企业遭遇生存危机,导致短期肉价下跌和2020年肉类供需紧张局面加剧;果蔬滞销、粮食销售延迟以及部分农产品消费抑制,将使相当部分种植户2020年收益面临下滑;疫情期间的延期复工和疫情后的长期停工会导致农民工就业人数下降205万人至351.1万人,2020年农民工人均工资收入名义增长速度可能将下降1.45至2.46个百分点。综合考虑疫情对各项收入来源的影响,2020年农村居民人均可支配收入名义增长速度可能将下降2.59至3.59个百分点。因此,应加紧建立应急储备和加大供需调节力度,以补贴和政策性信贷支持引导龙头企业帮助小农户度过难关,加大对农民工再就业培训和返乡创业的支持,多渠道稳定农民收入。     

基于钻石模型的食用菌产业扶贫潜力分析与思考

[目的]产业扶贫是我国农村扶贫的核心,而食用菌产业是贫困地区农民增收和脱贫致富的重要途径,分析食用菌产业扶贫的潜力和问题对贫困地区制订食用菌扶贫政策和提高扶贫效率具有积极的意义。[方法]依据钻石模型理论,结合贫困地区和扶贫产业选择的特点,在保留钻石模型4个基本要素的基础上,将绿色发展、利益联结机制纳入钻石模型的组成要素。[结果]在此基础上,针对食用菌产业特点,对自然资源禀赋、市场消费增长速度和稳定性、产业的流通能力、组织规模效应、绿色生态、贫困户有效参与程度等6个方面进行了潜力因素分析,并从生产的结构性过剩、地区扶贫失衡、行业技术壁垒、一、二、三产业融合不足等角度对食用菌扶贫产业存在的问题进行了探讨。[结论]研究最后从开展大数据市场预警、转变扶贫政策导向、加强生产要素优化、完善和延伸产业链等4个方面提出了具体的对策建议。     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

论黑龙江省国有森工林区贫困成因与脱贫对策

根据对贫困的深层次定义,通过入户调查,对黑龙江省国有森工林区的贫困成因从财富积累、创业机会、技术人才以及消费等方面进行了论述。并针对贫困形成的原因,建议通过增加森工林区的财富供给、建立有效的人才培养和使用机制、增加林区职工自我创业的动力、改变人们的不合理的消费观念解决黑龙江省国有森工林区面临的贫困问题。