A grey dynamic model for the evaluation of regional sustainable development and its emoirical study

Currently,traditional development issues,such as economic stagnation,as well as new challenges like environmental degradation and globalization,need attention.Sustainable development,including economic,environmental,and social elements,is a main goal of decision-makers.The key to sustainable decision-making is to evaluate and forecast the status quo of sustainable development.Policy makers need a tool based on scientific information to forecast the effects of future actions on sustainability and make policies for sustainable development.This paper analyzes the relation of the economy,environment and social welfare by the grey dynamic model.The proposed method use time series and basic indicators of ecological system,including economic,environmental and social sub-systems.It is applied to Heilongfiang Province and Jiangsu Province.The results have proved different status quo of sustainable development in these two regions,and suggestions are proposed,such as optimization of industrial structure and eco-industrial development.The conclusion is that there is no unique sustainable path,and accordingly,policy makers shouM choose different criteria and strategies to make efficient sustainable decisions for each region.     

A grey dynamic model for the evaluation of regional sustainable development and its empirical study

Currently, traditional development issues, such as economic stagnation, as well as new challenges like environmental degradation and globalization, need attention. Sustainable development, including economic, environmental, and social elements, is a main goal of decision-makers. The key to sustainable decision-making is to evaluate and forecast the status quo of sustainable development. Policy makers need a tool based on scientific information to forecast the effects of future actions on sustainability and make policies for sustainable development. This paper analyzes the relation of the economy, environment and social welfare by the grey dynamic model. The proposed method uses time series and basic indicators of ecological system, including economic, environmental and social sub-systems. It is applied to Heilongjiang Province and Jiangsu Province. The results have proved different status quo of sustainable development in these two regions, and suggestions are proposed, such as optimization of industrial structure and eco-industrial development. The conclusion is that there is no unique sustainable path, and accordingly, policy makers should choose different criteria and strategies to make efficient sustainable decisions for each region.     

两种基于不同理论的绿色国民核算方法比较

本文主要介绍了两种基于不同理论的绿色国民核算方法--GREENSTAMP(GREEned National Statistical and Modelling Procedures)方法和GARP(Green Accounting Research Project)方法的发展和应用.GREENSTAMP方法是以可持续发展理论为基础的模型计量方法,目的在于发展一种理论上严密、实行上可行的衡量满足可持续环境标准的经济产出总量的方法.GARP方法是搜集能够用于估计绿色NNP或者能够用于解释标准国民账户(SNA)的卫星账户的信息的实证研究方法,目的在于给出一个经济活动净福利的准确计量值.通过比较发现,两种绿色国民核算方法均存在一定的优点和缺点.因此,本文提出了将以可持续发展为基础的方法和以福利为基础的方法相结合的两种潜在方法.     

网络治理:生态城市管理的路径选择

相对于传统的城市管理,网络治理强调政府、企业、非政府部门和公众的协作实现经济与环境的平衡发展。通过对网络治理的涵义、治理模型、特征以及网络治理的动力来源的阐述以及哈立法克斯生态城的案例分析,说明突破城市管理路径依赖的关键在于实现城市网络治理,最后提出网络治理应用于我国生态城市管理的三大条件。     

Mathematical modelling as a tool to aid R&D investment decisions in a sustainable development policy climate

By its very nature, investment in R&D is a challenging proposition. It is a decision made today for an uncertain return in the future. Moreover, it has become more complex with the introduction of sustainable development considerations into the decision-making process. In this paper, the effect of environmental policy on the economic framework within which new technologies must compete is discussed, and analytical techniques which help assess these complexities are described. The return on an R&D investment is determined by the competitiveness of the resultant innovation at the time of its eventual application. A new technology is competitive relative to a given economic framework (which includes such factors as alternative technologies, availability of investment capital, trained human resources, etc).Government involvement in establishing goals and timetables for environmental protection signficantly affects the evolution of the economic framework in which new technologies must perform. To be successful in the 'sustainable development' age, the R&D investor must be able to anticipate the effect and development of government environmental and economic policy. Mathematical modelling is a valuable tool to help the investor and policy-maker appreciate the key risk factors and to understand the effect of environmental and economic policy on desired outcomes. For R&D, most model development has focused on policy development and is not very useful supporting the business decisions msociated with effective R&D investment. In this paper, the interaction bebeen government policy and business decision-making is discussed, and a methodology, supported by a model, is presented to aid R&D investors to take environmental and sustainabilip issues into account when assessing the future competitiveness of technology.     

Considering Aquacultural Externality in Coastal Land Allocation Decisions in India

Commercial aquaculture in India has come under attack for having caused negative agricultural and environmental impacts. This paper formulates an interactive model of non-renewable and renewable resources to characterize land allocations between aquaculture and agriculture in ecologically and economically sustainable fashion. Through an empirical application, various economic and policy circumstances that affect the optimal land allocation mix are evaluated. The aquaculture industry must address two economic effects: off-site negative effects on renewable food and other coastal resources, and on-site self-pollution of shrimp ponds. Current regulatory and land-use policies are inadequate to address these effects.     

北京市人口、经济和环境关系的协调度评价

人口、经济和环境的协调发展是实现首都可持续发展的关键所在,目前学术界对首都这一领域的研究甚少。采用主成分法对北京市人口、经济和环境系统进行综合评价,通过建立变异系数协调度模型对北京市1996-2010年协调度进行定量分析。这些年北京市的协调度在不断提高,但协调水平仍然不高。未来仍需注重提高劳动者素质,提升人口发展水平,继续转变经济增长方式和巩固环境治理效果。     

论内资“BOT”方式及其在西部大开发中环境基础设施建设领域的应用

随着经济的发展,环境问题已经成为影响我国人民生命健康和经济可持续发展的重要因素。在西部大开发过程中,我国西部业已十分脆弱的生态环境将面临比世界其他国家和地区更为严峻的环境形势。为尊重自然、保护自然,建立人与自然的和谐共处、协调发展的关系,充分利用国内私人资本在西部环境基础设施领域的投资,在保护环境的同时拉动内需、实现西部经济可持续发展中,“BOT”投融资方式的应用无疑是上上之选。     

辽宁省“三大经济区”产业发展方向分析——基于灰色局势决策理论

优化产业布局是关系区域经济、社会与环境可持续发展的关键问题。长期以来,人们只注重从经济资源出发考虑产业布局,忽视从环境、经济、社会协调发展的角度进行产业布局,结果必然造成地区发展失衡。尝试运用灰色系统理论中的灰色局势决策方法对辽宁省＂三大经济区＂的产业发展方向进行了探析,为辽宁省优化产业布局,推进区域间的整合,提高区域整体产业水平提供有力的依据。     

论发展生态旅游的理论基础

针对生态旅游在全球发展的态势以及内涵，本交通过分析200多年来发达国家和发展中国家在单纯经济增长片面发展观指导下推行的工业化和现代化过程中造成的经济、社会和环境不可协调的矛盾，认为生态旅游的发展正是把人的发展和社会进步作为发展目标的同时，强调经济、社会、人、自然之间协调发展的一种具体写照，是可持续发展观指导下的一种具体实践活动，完全符合可持续发展观的准则。因此，可持续发展现是当今国际社会发展生态旅游的理论基础。     

中国新型工业化道路探索——来自印度新型工业化案例的启示

经过大规模传统工业化，中国过旱出现了需求不足、资源枯竭、环境污染、就业压力大等问题，这说明传统工业化和现代化的经济发展政策，已不适用于当代环境和条件。中国要解决上述问题，必须改变经济增长方式，不能走西方国家发展的老路。而印度新型工业化案例告诉我们，发展中大国完全可以实施赶超型发展战略，即将发展的重点放到国际水平的高新技术产业上，利用高新技术产业的高增值能力，积累资金和技术，引导和改造传统产业，并积极发展现代服务业，即走以高新技术产业为先导的新型工业化道路。     

区域生态经济评价模型及实证研究

生态效率是基于环境一经济系统相互关系的定量描述，搭建了经济效益和环境效益之间的桥梁。基于区域生态效率增长与环保投入的平衡关系，本文构建了区域生态经济评价模型，以反映一个地区在一定环保投入条件下的环境改善效果，并对中国30个城市的经济环境协调状况进行综合评价，力求为现阶段中国区域生态经济状况提供新的可行评价方法。     

国际生产折衷理论的环境涵义

跨国公司是世界经济联系的重要载体,随着可持续发展概念的提出,跨国公司对环境的影响日益受到社会的关注。跨国公司对环境产生影响的内在逻辑是什么?本文从国际生产折衷理论的视角出发,对上述问题做出了解答。     

Assessment of urban sustainable development using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

1. Introduction In 1987, World Commission on Environment and Development explained the concept of sustainable development for the first time in the report Our Com- mon Future, which has reached a wide agreement. “Sustainable development seeks to meet the needs and aspirations of the present without compromis- ing the ability to meet those of the future”. In other words, it refers to the harmonious development of economy, society, resources and environment, which are an inseparable system.…     

中国生态环境保护的制度供给及其政策取向

中国生态环境的基本态势是生态环境有所改善,但局部生态环境仍有恶化的趋势。为了提高经济发展的质量,实现可持续发展,在中国未来的经济发展过程中,生态环境保护的制度供给和政策取向是在基础性的制度供给方面建立"经济发展成本内生"的生态经济模式,建立质量型低成本运行的国民经济体系,完善可持续发展的政策体系。     

对外经济发展与生态环境研究

Since China＇s opening to the outside world, a large amomt of foreign investment has flowed into the country. The domestic economy has been full of vigor and vitality after adepting the socialist market economy, which contributes to a higher economic growth. However, ecological enviromnent has a close relationship with the foreign economic development. The good ecological environment and natural resources are the foundation of foreign economir development. With the expansion of its market economy. China is confronted with a series of sustainable development challenges related to population, resources and environmental protection, etc. How we should prevent and control effectively the impact of economic development upon the environment and avoid serious. effect and damages on environmental quality are the key points this paper will discuss.     

沿海城市人地关系地域系统脆弱性研究——以大连市为例

脆弱性是全球环境变化研究的热点和前沿领域,是多个科学计划的重要研究内容。人地关系地域系统是海洋经济地理研究中一个重点内容,将区域可持续发展研究推向纵深。利用大连市1996—2007年综合发展水平数据,根据区域经济发展、资源环境消耗、社会发展的相互关系,采用三角图分析方法,通过敏感性、适应性、恢复性等进行指标筛选,构建沿海城市脆弱性指标体系,建立脆弱性评价模型,对大连市人地关系地域系统的脆弱性进行了初步探索,结果表明:①大连市人地关系地域系统脆弱性逐年降低,连续12年脆弱性类型均为ERS型;②从趋势上看,经济子系统的脆弱值逐渐降低;③社会子系统的脆弱值逐渐下降,并且降低速度较快;④资源环境子系统的脆弱值逐年增加,在2003—2007年间,占大连市人地关系地域系统的1/3以上,该子系统为目前影响大连市人地关系地域系统的主要系统。     

经济增长与环境质量可持续发展的实证分析

本文以我国工业在发展过程中产生的“三废”为研究对象,以环境库兹涅茨曲线假设为基础,通过比较新旧环境库兹涅茨模型构建了能较好反映经济增长对环境影响的计量模型,并对其环境库兹涅茨曲线特征及所涉及的和经济增长环境的关系进行了分析,得到经济增长与环境质量之间的关系,并依据此关系给出经济与环境可持续发展的政策建议。     

Production and Employment Impacts of Biotechnology —Input-output Analysis for Germany

Biotechnology is often regarded as a key technology with high potential for far-reaching social, environmental and economic impacts. Among others, the development and diffusion of biotechnology may have considerable economic effects on production and employment. This paper analyses the economic impacts of different prospective diffusion paths of biotechnology in some major application fields for Germany. Bottom-up technology information from the literature, expert judgements and explicit scenario assumptions for various impact factors are combined and integrated in an input-output framework to calculate direct and indirect production and employment effects. The impact on net production and employment differs greatly between the different application sectors and depends on the respective importance of the various impact mechanisms. The indirect economic effects are rather high and exceed the direct economic effects. These findings show the importance of a bottom-up approach as well as the consideration of the indirect economic effects for appropriate analyses of the impact of biotechnology.