The RMB Exchange Rate Keeps Increasing

In July 2005, the People's Bank of China officially announced that it would adopt a manageable floating exchange rate, adjusted according to a basket of currencies based on market supply and demand. On that day, the exchange rate of the RMB to the U.S. Dollar increased by 21 percent, and since then the RMB exchange rate has gradually turned to a more flexible exchange rate convention, rather than focusing on the Dollar only.     

The RMB Exchange Rate Keeps increasing

In July 2005,the People's Bank of China of- ficially announced that it would adopt a man- ageable floating exchange rate,adjusted ac- cording to a basket of currencies based on market supply and demand.On that day,the exchange rate of the RMB to the U.S.Dollar increased by 21 percent,and since then the RMB exchange rate has gradually turned to a more flexible ex- change rate convention,rather than focusing on     

What Is Its Purpose？-＂Advancing RMB Exchange Rate Formation Mechanism＂

Spokesperson from People＇s Bank of China said on June 19th, ＂further advance the reform in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and strengthen the flexibilitv of RMB exchange rate.＂ This is the first time for China central bank give a clear attitude on reform in RMB exchange rate, which attracts great attention for global market. Does strengthening the flexibilityof RMB exchange ratemean that RMB will appreciate again？ Why the central bank announces the news at this moment？ How to choose the time for the reform in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism？     

China＇s Strategy of Petroleum Industry Development Urged

China＇s Petroleum industry has achieved great development during the past 50 years and has made great contributions to the national economy and the social development. However, due to the speedy and sustainable development of national economy since 1990＇s, the domestic demand for the petroleum has witnessed a rapid growth, hence, the sharp conflict between petroleum supply and demand has become more and more conspicuous,     

In or Out？

China on April 1 raised the tax rebate rates on exports of certain textile and apparel products from 15% to 16%. It , is the fourth time the government has raised the rebate rate since last August. Dating back to February 4, the State Counc-il executive meeting examined-and approved in principle the revitalization of the textile industry adjusts planning, in the planning, the country would increase textile and garment export tax rebate rate further from 14% to 15%. The measures are expected to boost China＇s textile and garment enterprises＇ profits by RMB 9 billion, it is significantly positive for the textile exporting enterprises since the country policies convey a positive signal to consolidate the international share of China＇s textile industry. Some experts firmly declare textile exports are set to languish this year with no signs of a quick pick up, notwithstanding the increase in tax rebates. Other asserts that with the relative domestic demand extending policies released by the government, the domestic market is expected to remain stable. In these circumstances, more and more enterprises are pushed or actively choose to eye on domestic market, but is ＂going in＂ really better than ＂going out＂ for them？ If it is really a dilemma, how can they do to strike the balance？     

Sino-US Trade Develops in Interdependency

China and the USA have decided to start up the third round of negotiation on the textile issue in the recent future. Maybe there is some activesignificance to start up this round of negotiation in such an occasion, for China＇s central bank has launched a reform on the RMB exchange rate in July and appreciated RMB for 2%. In the meantime, Huo Jianguo, head of the Department of Foreign Trade, Ministry of Commerce, revealed that the trade surplus with the USA is expected to exceed US$90 billion this year. Wang Zihong, Head of Division of Economic Research, Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Science, gave his answers on the question when interviewed by China＇s Foreign Trade.     

Anti-Monopoly Law and Its Implications for Foreign Companies in China

On August 30 2007, after more than a decade of legislative efforts, the Standing Committee of the National People＇s Congress （NPC）, China＇s top legislature, completed its third official reading of the draft Anti-monopoly Law （AML） and formally adopted it as thecountry＇s first comprehensive competition law. The Anti-monopoly Law will become effective on 1 August 2008, to guard against monopolistic conduct, safeguard competition, improve economic efficiency, protect public and consumer interests, and promote the healthy development of the socialist market economy. After 13 years of debate, the final adoption of the AML marks an important step toward an effective competition regime in China＇s move toward a market economy. This article introduces the history of China＇s Anti-monopoly Law, summarizes some of its key provisions, highlights some of the major improvements on the June 2007 draft, and discusses the major implications for foreign companies doing business in China.     

Yuan Appreciation——At the 7-Yuan Mark

On April 10,China＇s currency,the Yuan,opened at 6.9920 against the U.S. Dollar,compared to an exchange rate of 7.0017-to-1 on the previous day,breaking the 7-yuan mark for the first time since the government un-pegged it from the Dollar in 2005,according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System.Since the start of 2008,it has appreciated more than 18 percent;the breakthrough was an indication of the country＇s efforts to shift away from a heavy reliance on exports and foreign investment,in order to establish a more balanced trade structure.     

Specific guidelines set for new Anti-Monopoly Law

China＇s sccuritics watchdog on September 1 required fund companies to make their information release more transparent and rolled out a draft regulation on brokers, its latest moves to boost the healthy development of the country＇s stock market.     

Innovative Power Generated by the Digital Economy

In recent years,with the vigorous demand of intelligence and information in all walks of life,the digital economy has become an important engine to promote the high-quality development of China’s economy.The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 brought a huge blow to the global economic market,and had a great impact on the development of global trade and consumer employment.     

我国外汇市场动量效应的实证研究——基于改进的MA交易规则

本文构建了改进的MA交易规则,运用13600种策略对我国外汇市场上的动量效应进行了实证检验,发现存在着显著的动量超额收益,证明“有效市场”理论在中国外汇市场上并不成立。同时,这种超额收益也受到了人民币汇率形成机制改革的显著影响,机制改革后随着汇率弹性的增加和市场供求关系的逐渐体现,动量效应有所减弱,市场逐渐向“理性”发展。     

人民币汇率机制改革走势分析

我国实行的是根据市场要求,有管理的浮动汇率制度,使人民币汇率对市场更富有弹性。在保持宏观经济的稳定和发展与保持金融健康运行的前提下,适当进行汇率改革。对汇率体制的形成,不仅要考虑本国的利益,而且要考虑对周边国家和世界的影响。既要慢慢地放开兑换范围,又要保持人民币汇率的稳定。     

中国货币政策不确定性和宏观经济新闻的人民币汇率效应

基于2012年4月30日至2018年12月17日的银行间7天逆回购操作利率,本文首次使用波动率回归拟合的方法,从政策利率的角度改进中国货币政策不确定性指数,并进一步研究了在不同程度货币政策不确定性的情况下,人民币兑美元汇率对宏观经济新闻的反应。收集和构建10项宏观经济新闻后,本文发现当市场参与者普遍不能较为准确地预测未来政策变化的情形时,货币政策不确定性上升,在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率对宏观经济新闻的反应显著减弱。当货币政策存在较高不确定性时,市场对未来政策判断的分歧加剧,进而人民币汇率对宏观经济新闻的反应不足。在货币政策不确定性较高时,增加央行的汇率沟通,可以发挥其对宏观经济新闻的补充作用,同时增强市场对宏观经济基本面信息的反应。本文不仅丰富了货币政策不确定性的负面影响、经济后果以及宏观经济新闻的人民币汇率效应相关理论研究,而且为未来货币政策制定、调整和实施提供了有价值的依据,为货币当局进行有效外汇市场干预提供了经验参考。     

美联储量化宽松货币政策正常化与人民币汇率变动——基于时变参数向量自相关模型的研究

2015年后,随着量化宽松货币政策正常化和人民币汇率进入双向波动新常态,美国货币政策对人民币汇率的外溢效应日益显著。通过构建时变参数向量自相关模型对2008-2018年美联储量化宽松货币政策的实施和退出对人民币汇率的溢出效应进行研究,结果表明：美联储加息在滞后一季度作用人民币兑美元先升值后贬值,加息通过中美利差、产出差、货币供给之差分别作用于人民币兑美元贬值、升值和升值,利差渠道是主要作用渠道;美联储资产负债表扩张和缩减分别带来人民币汇率的升值和贬值,且扩张的升值影响大于缩减的贬值影响;美联储资产负债表和利率政策有一定替代性,替代关系存在明显的结构效应;美联储资产负债表的扩张和缩减分别带来中国银行间市场利率的下降和回升,两国利率表现出一定联动性。     

人民币实际有效汇率对我国进出口总额的影响

本文通过对1994年1月至2005年7月、2005年8月至2006年11月这两个阶段的人民币实际有效汇率、我国进口总额、出口总额的月度数据进行相关处理,利用向量自回归模型和格兰杰因果检验模型,验证了人民币实际有效汇率对我国进口总额和出口总额的影响。结果表明:随着2005年7月21日汇率制度改革的实施,人民币实际有效汇率对我国进出口的影响正在减小,美国等西方发达国家要求人民币升值以改善其贸易逆差之举在实践中是不合理的。     

Spillover Effect in the RMB Foreign Exchange Market: Based on VAR and DCC-MVGARCH Models

This paper analyzes the stability and marketization of the RMB exchange rate after China introduced the foreign exchange rate reform by linking the RMB exchange rate with the offshore and onshore markets on August 11, 2015 (“8/11”). Under the framework of dynamic analysis, through Granger causality test, VAR model and DCC-MVGARCH model, the empirical analysis is conducted about the three market exchange rate linkages of CNY, NDF and CNH from May 2012 to December 2018. Then, the direction and degree of the linkage between the RMB's offshore and onshore exchange rates before and after the“8/11” exchange rate reform are compared. The research results show that: (1) since the “8/11”exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate has become more flexible; (2) the price-determining power of the RMB exchange rate may be weakened, and policy adjustment should take effect; and (3) the prerequisites, under which the offshore market can play a role, are the development of the market itself. This paper proposes that: (1) the onshore and offshore markets should develop in a collaborative manner to further increase exchange rate elasticity and flexibility; (2) close attention should be paid to the relationship between the offshore and onshore markets, and policy determination and flexibility should be maintained; and (3) the offshore market should be improved and play a due role.     

资本项目可兑换与汇率制度的互动协调分析

资本项目可兑换与汇率制度相互作用、相互协调.一方面,市场化汇率制度是资本项目可兑换的前提和基础;另一方面,资本项目可兑换决定均衡汇率,并促进汇率制度弹性化和市场化.随着中国经济不断发展和日益融入国际经济体系,中国应进一步开放资本项目,相应地逐步增大汇率制度的弹性空间,最终实现资本项目可兑换和浮动汇率制度.     

中国金融开放:模式、基础条件和市场效应评估

本文分析中国金融开放的进程和现状,总结典型大国和新兴经济体金融开放的经验和教训,提出中国金融全面开放的路径选择,并评估开放后的市场效应。本文的核心观点是:中国金融全面开放的过程中,在政策设计上建议选取“货币政策独立和资本自由流动”之组合,形成市场决定的汇率形成机制;金融机构的开放是中国金融开放的独特路径,但人民币自由化始终是一个不能绕开的坎;中国金融全面开放的硬实力基本具备,但软实力相对薄弱,金融基础设施亟待改进和完善;中国金融全面开放的目标有两个,即人民币自由化、国际化和形成新的国际金融中心;中国金融开放后的市场效应具有大国经济和新兴经济体双重特征,全面开放后中国金融的市场变化(主要指人民币汇率)会呈现短期波动、长期收敛的趋势。     

关于人民币双重压力缓解和汇制改革的思考

分别从内外两个角度分析了目前的经济形势,得出了人民币面临着双重压力———既有升值的外在压力又有贬值的内在要求这一结论。根据这一结论,提出了缓解双重压力的措施,即保持人民币汇率稳定的对外缓解升值压力,对内扩大内需;接着,提出了人民币汇率制度改革的方向:短期,继续维持人民币汇率基本稳定;中期,改钉住汇率制度为汇率目标区制度;长期,退出汇率目标区制度,实行浮动汇率制。