The Political Economy for Low-carbon Energy Transition in China: Towards a New Policy Paradigm?

China has become the leading country to develop wind and solar energy industries. By presenting the institutional arrangement and interest constellations of China’s regulatory system of renewable energy sectors, this paper argues that the reasons for China’s swift expansion of wind and solar energy investment go beyond the notion of a state-led model. It also reveals that due to a series of internal power struggles and external shocks, the current regulatory system is undergoing significant restructuring. A new policy paradigm is emerging that is largely different from the previous decades of policy orientation that centred on capacity expansion and instrumental interests for renewable energy development. The new paradigm would face tremendous challenges from existing institutions and vested interests, and it requires new set of ideologies that can help renewable energy sector to truly competing with the energy incumbents in order to bring about meaningful low-carbon energy transition in China.     

What’s powering wind? The effect of the U.S. state renewable energy policies on wind capacity (1994–2012)

As of 2012, 29 states had enacted a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), while 37 states had at least one utility offering Green Power Purchasing (GPP) to their customers. The goal of both policies is to promote the adoption of clean, renewable energy. This article examines the influence of these polices on wind capacity across the United States from 1994–2012, a period of significant expansion of the wind generation market. The analysis focuses on wind because as compared with other modern renewable energy sources, wind is the only renewable energy source to make significant inroads into the U.S. electricity generation market. My findings indicate that while there have been significant increases in commercial scale wind generation capacity, neither RPS nor GPP programmes had a significant influence on within state wind capacity additions.     

英国可再生能源产业发展现状

英国在发展可再生能源方面具有良好的自然条件,特别在离岸风能及波浪能和潮汐能方面。但英国在开发这一潜力方面做得并不够好,目前,英国来自可再生能源的发电量占其全部用电需求的不足5％,远远落后于世界上一些先进国家。这其中有多方面的原因,如英国的入网电价相对便宜（与欧洲其他国家相比）,政府对可再生能源行业的财政补贴较少,以及在批准可再生能源项目方面遇到的延误和障碍较多等等。但是,随着近些年一系列鼓励政策和措施的出台,英国在可再生能源方面会有一个较为光明的前景,从而实现它确保能源安全及减少温室气体排放的双重目标。     

The Hidden Costs of Wind Generation in a Thermal Power System: What Cost?

New renewable energy generation in Australia is unambiguously more expensive than thermal plant, at least when comparing direct costs. The federal government claims the 20 per cent renewable energy target will increase electricity tariffs by 4 per cent. Apart from the direct costs, critics of renewables cite additional ‘hidden costs’ arising from the intermittency of wind and the subsequent causation of ‘back‐up plant’ for system security. South Australia, where wind's market share now exceeds 17 per cent, provides a valuable case study to analyse ‘hidden costs’. The evidence is that hidden costs are trivial and the government's claim appears accurate.     

Do German renewable energy resources affect prices and mitigate market power in the French electricity market ?

Several empirical studies show that renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, typically supplied at low marginal cost, can cause electricity market prices to fall. Recent theoretical research and simulations also highlight the link between the integration of renewable energy and market performance in an oligopolistic energy market. This article looks at these dynamics in the context of cross-border effects between two highly interconnected electricity markets, France and Germany. Using a rich panel dataset for hourly data from November 2009 to July 2015, I estimate the impact of German wind and solar power production on both prices and market power in the French wholesale market. The findings highlight the importance of coordinating energy policies via joint renewable energy support schemes among interconnected European electricity markets.     

Investment and employment from large-scale photovoltaics up to 2050

Investments in renewable energy were at US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US$211 billion in 2010 and developing economies overtook developed ones for the first time in terms of new financial investments in renewable energy. Photovoltaics for generation of electricity from sunlight has the highest growth rate among the competing forms of renewable energy and has now begun to achieve grid parity in some regions. If these trends of investments continue, solar energy will play a major economic role. We analyze these developments and assess the ensuing amounts of investment and employment for a range of sizes of the sector of solar energy. We find that by 2050 electricity from photovoltaics could cover up to 90% of total global energy demand, with a then global capital investment in our main scenario in photovoltaic manufacturing capacity at 500 billion US₂₀₁₀ by around 2030 and 1,500 billion by 2050. Employment in photovoltaic manufacturing is predicted to rise to 6 million by 2050. Sensitivity analysis with respect to the core parameters of assumptions is supplied.     

浅析“两型社会”背景下风电产业发展策略——以湖南省为例

当前能源危机日益严重,特别是传统化石能源的短缺要求人们尽早开发利用可再生能源,从而保证社会经济持续、健康的发展,而在新型可再生能源中,最具开发利用前景之一的风能,备受人们关注.风电产业在近几年也得到了快速发展,尤其是在“两型”社会背景下,发展风电产业是对“资源节约”与“环境友好”的重要实践.结合湖南风能资源条件,从缓解能源压力、改善空气质量、增添特色旅游、促进经济发展等方面对湖南发展风电产业的必要性进行了分析,并阐述目前已开发利用的风电场建设情况和风电设备制造企业的状况.在此基础上,对湖南风电产业提出了相关发展策略:加强政策引导;增加财政投入;提升融资能力;建立服务体系;加强风电规划;制定消纳方案;做好安全工作和加强人才培养等,这对促进湖南进一步发展风电产业的可持续发展具有一定的借鉴意义.     

The effect of sample size on European Union’s renewable energy investment drivers

Macroeconomic modelling results based on relatively varying sample sizes may lead to incoherent results. Such effects have not been adequately understood in the renewable energy literature regarding the European Union (EU). This study focuses on the comparison of results obtained for renewable energy investment drivers (for solar and wind energy investments) on different samples of EU countries, including all EU-27, former EU-15 and 11 high renewable investment EU countries. The study used a random effect panel data modelling approach over the period 1995–2011 for studying the impact of the levelized cost, regulation perception, carbon emissions and climatic condition on wind and solar investments over the three samples. The results demonstrate the importance of trustable regulation schemes to ensure that regulation will not have a significant negative effect on investment, showing also the need to further extend the model to include support schemes as fundamental drivers for investment.     

广东省海上风电产业发展形势分析

广东省是经济大省,也是能源消费大省,能源供给结构优化升级是支撑经济高质量发展的基础条件。广东省是中国海岸线最长的省,海上风能资源丰富、品质较好,发展海上风电具有得天独厚的地理条件。海上风电作为一种绿色、低碳、可再生的能源,为社会带来的环境经济效益不可小觑,未来在广东省建设“清洁低碳、安全高效”的现代化能源体系中将发挥重要作用。通过对广东省海上风电产业发展现状及问题进行剖析,提出有效的政策建议。     

Regulatory design and incentives for renewable energy

Increasing electric power production from renewable energy sources is currently one of the major objectives of energy policy. The intermittent nature of renewables, such as wind and solar, necessarily imposes complex trade-offs for regulatory objectives, such as resource adequacy (and system reliability) versus reductions in green house gas emissions. We develop a highly stylized model of investments in order to derive insights regarding the workings of regulatory incentives for increased renewable energy. We first show that incentives are indeed needed when there are significant economies of scale in the form of “learning by doing” or alternatively, when there is excess capacity in conventional technology due to legacy investments. We analyze two different regulatory schemes (feed-in tariffs and renewable portafolio standards) aimed at increasing investment in renewable capacity. We show that neither scheme is capable of inducing the socially optimal level of investment in renewable capacity. A single feed-in tariff fails to induce optimal investment as a feed-in tariff exceeding marginal costs of conventional technology incentivizes over-development of the most attractive sites which preempts investment in less attractive, yet socially valuable sites. A renewable portfolio standard that promotes increased investment in renewable technology induces under-investment in the conventional technology. These results suggest that a “clinical” regulatory design, that is, one that promotes the right amount of renewable capacity without affecting conventional capacity is a challenging proposition.     

中国新能源制氢潜力评价研究——基于31省份2017年和2030年的分析

使用SBM-Undesirable模型测算我国31省份的新能源制氢效率,从新能源制氢效率和新能源装机容量两个维度构建评价体系,再应用熵权评价法,对我国31省份的新能源制氢潜力进行分析,同时研究了新能源制氢潜力2017—2030年的变化情况。结果表明:风电制氢的效率明显高于光伏制氢;西北和华北地区的新能源制氢潜力明显高于其他地区;西北和华南地区存在新能源制氢潜力与加氢设施建设之间短期发展不均衡的现象;2030年我国各省份新能源制氢效率和潜力较2017年都有所提升。最后,依据评价结果提出改善我国氢能产业发展的对策建议。     

Rural versus urban preferences for renewable energy developments

Development of renewable energy resources, such as wind farms and hydro-electric schemes, are being promoted as a new method of expanding and diversifying employment in rural areas. However, such energy projects are associated with a range of environmental impacts which might be detrimental to other economic activities, such as those based on nature tourism. The authors use a Choice Experiment to quantify peoples' preferences over environmental and employment impacts that may result from the deployment of renewable energy projects in rural areas of Scotland, focussing in particular on any differences between the preferences of urban and rural dwellers, and on heterogeneity within these groups. Rural and urban households are shown to have different welfare gains which are dependent on the type of renewable energy technology and on the scale of project under consideration.     

Why is Germany’s energy transition so expensive? Quantifying the costs of wind-energy decentralisation

This paper discusses the efficiency of promotion schemes for renewable energy sources using the example of onshore wind energy in Germany. We analyse whether the scheme incentivised a cost-minimal capacity build-up by developing a model to derive two cost-minimal benchmark scenarios, which are then compared to the historical capacity build-up between 1995 and 2015. The costs of the two cost-minimising benchmark scenarios are significantly lower than those of the historical build-up. The benchmark cost reduction largely stems from greater efficiency—fewer turbines are being constructed overall but they are being placed at better wind sites so the annual production of wind energy remains unchanged. Hence, aggregated turbine land use is also significantly down in these scenarios. Furthermore, we compare costs for consumers, as protecting consumers from price discrimination of producers is sometimes used to justify higher payments for low-wind sites. However, our results show that the efficiency gain from building at high wind sites outweighs the distributional effect, even from a consumer’s perspective.     

捆绑小型清洁发展机制项目的相关问题研究与对策

充分利用清洁发展机制（CDM）所带来的资金和技术,发展小水电、风能和生物质能等可再生能源的小型CDM项目对于提高中国农村地区的能源服务质量,增加就业,促进节能减排工作等方面具有重要意义。本文从分析中国CDM项目的开发现状入手,探讨小型GDM项目开发和捆绑的相关问题,并最终提出对策建议。     

The effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs: a Monte Carlo analysis

We use Monte Carlo analysis to examine the potential of increased renewable generation to provide a hedge against variability in energy prices and costs. Fuel costs, electricity demand and wind generation are allowed to vary and a unit commitment and economic dispatch algorithm is employed to produce cost-minimizing generation schedules under different levels of installed wind capacity. Increased wind capacity reduces the mean and the variance of production costs but only the variance of electricity prices. Wind generators see their market revenues increase while consumer payments and fossil generator profits do not considerably vary as wind capacity increases. Risk aversion is captured by considering the conditional value-at-risk for both consumers and producers. The optimal level of wind generation increases as risk aversion increases due to the potential of wind to act as a hedge against very high electricity prices in high fuel price scenarios.     

低碳经济引发的可再生能源思考

在全球应对气候变化的背景下,低碳经济的概念应运而生,并由此引发了人们对碳排放和低碳产业的高度重视。发展可再生能源将是人类走向低碳经济社会的重要途径之一。在未来世界发展的能源格局中,煤炭消费将在终端能源使用中逐渐减少,风能、太阳能等新型能源将逐渐占据主导地位。文章对低碳经济与可再生能源的关系进行简要论证,对我国可再生能源的现状、存在问题及未来发展进行分析,并针对可再生能源的发展提出建议。     

出力不确定下基于保险机制的风电供应链 最优交易决策

随着新一轮电力体制改革的日益推进,参与电力市场竞争是消纳风电等可再生能源的必经之路。由于风电出力受风速等自然条件影响,出力具有较强不确定性,导致其实际出力难以预测,使得风电商参与电力市场面临巨大的收益风险。合理地转移风电商的市场风险,引入有效的风险规避机制,对提高风电商收益稳定性具有重要意义。因此本文基于电量损失保险机制,建立了风电商、售电公司以及保险公司的Stackelberg博弈模型,通过逆向递归法求解纳什均衡,分析保险费率与市场三方利润之间的关系,得出市场主体风电商、售电公司以及保险公司的最优交易决策。最后通过具体算例分析验证得出,引入电量保险机制,制定适当的保险费率,能够使风电商、售电公司以及保险公司三方利益实现共赢。     

SOCIAL COSTS OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION: WIND AND PHOTOVOLTAIC VERSUS FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR

This paper presents the results of research on the total costs to society of different technologies for electric power production in the Federal Republic of Germany. The analysis views electricity costs from a macroeconomic perspective and includes the internal or private costs as well as the social costs. The focus is on fossil and nuclear fuels as conventional energy sources on the one side and on wind and photovoltaic electricity as examples of renewable energy sources on the other.     

美国风险投资机制及启示

美国的风险投资业经历了60年的风雨,风险投资活动为美国经济的发展注入了强大的动力,风险投资正面临生物技术和可再生能源技术革命带来的新的机遇.本文通过对美国风险投资的历史回顾、风险投资的现状及案例的探讨,对风险投资机制中风险投资公司运作程序的剖析,并结合我国国情对如何发展我国的风险投资事业提出了若干思考和建议.     

中国可再生能源消费、经济增长与碳排放的动态关系

通过协整检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解,对1980—2009年中国的可再生能源消费、碳排放量与经济增长之间的动态关系、冲击效应和贡献度进行了分析。研究结果显示:可再生能源消费、经济增长与碳排放之间存在长期、稳定的协整关系;经济增长受其他变量的冲击均表现为正效应;可再生能源消费的冲击对碳排放的影响微弱,而经济增长的冲击影响较强而持续,且前期波动剧烈但后期平稳;受碳排放的影响,可再生能源消费的累积冲击效应为负,而且正负冲击效应交替出现。