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为应对施工企业面对多项目时资源受限、风险管理压力增大的现实情况,本文提出施工企业在企业战略的高度上采取项目组合管理,降低总风险并实现企业收益最大化。为有效推进施工企业项目组合的风险管理,选择ISM解释结构模型技术,建立风险管理指标体系。并且,本文根据各层次的风险要素,提供针对性的风险管理思路和方向,为进一步深入研究施工企业项目组合的风险管理系统性、科学性和有效性打下坚实基础。 相似文献
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本文的模型用于预测工程设计费用潜在超支的大小。用模糊逻辑分析法描述项目特征与风险事件的关系,以及它们的各种组合对设计费用超支的影响。讨论了用模型来识别项目特征与风险事件,解释了模型结构和模糊逻辑分析法的应用。 相似文献
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本文以中小企业信用担保项目组合的CVaR最小为目标函数,以项目组合的VaR约束为条件,建立了信用担保项目组合风险优化模型,此模型可以降低信用担保机构发生灾难性风险的可能性,使组合风险限定在信用担保机构可以承受的范围之内。这有助于信用担保机构在有效控制风险的前提下提高担保资金的使用效率和担保项目质量。 相似文献
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应用风险价值理论,对BOT项目投融资风险进行定性与定量的风险分析。这里首先介绍了VaR的相关理论及计算方法,在此基础上,以某污水处理厂项目为工程实例,建立了项目的财务净现值模型,并将此模型作为风险价值分析的估值模型,BOT项目投资者可以结合具体项目的特点,根据论文探索的这一套理论和风险价值计算方法,对项目的投融资风险做出较为准确的定量描述,为BOT项目投资者准确预期项目未来收益、合理规避或降低项目风险提供基础的数据依据。 相似文献
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BOT项目的风险分析与防范策略 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
BOT项目在国际上广泛开展于基础设施的建设上,但由于项目本身的复杂性,在实施过程中会出现许多风险,因此如何防范风险就成为项目实施的核心问题。本文探讨了BOT项目的风险特点,对其中存在的风险进行了分析,提出了BOT项目风险防范策略,应该建立BOT项目风险防范的三维体系,加强合同管理,建立合理的风险分担原则,进行有效的风险防范。 相似文献
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投资行为所具有的风险和收益密切相关的特点,使投资者必须努力寻求低风险和高收益的投资策略。而投资组合则能够为企业进行分散风险和扩张经营提供强有力的保证。本文使用现代投资组合理论,为企业的多项目投资组合建立优化模型,从定量的角度说明在企业多项目投资管理中运用投资组合的合理性和有效性。 相似文献
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技术创新项目组合决策支持系统 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
一、证券投资组合分析 由于证券组合在思想上与技术创新项目组合相同,即都为了在风险和收益作出权衡考虑,因此,许多学者采用Markowits思想进行R&D项目选择,然而,证券组合模型用于技术创新项目组合决策存在的缺陷有: (1)只适合于证券投资组合,而不适合于一般工程项目和新产品开发项目(技术创新项目)的投资决策. 相似文献
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BOT方式中项目投资者的风险管理 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
对基础设施、特别是经营性基础设施的融资市场化,是我国投融资改革的方向。作为项目融资的方式之一,BOT越来越广泛的得到应用,并从最初只适用于外商投资项目,到适用于包括民营资本投资在内的各种基础设施项目。但由于基础设施的特点和BOT方式的复杂性,投资者存在较大的风险。如何识别、控制这些风险,以获得项目的成功,对BOT项目的投资者来说至关重要。从项目投资者的角度分析了BOT项目可能存在的主要风险及应采取的防范措施。 相似文献
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Juliane Teller 《Project Management Journal》2013,44(2):36-51
Previous research has found supporting evidence of a positive relationship between project risk management and project success, but literature on how risk management is applied to and integrated with project portfolios has been scarce. Based on a literature review, a comprehensive conceptual model is developed, which highlights the three components of portfolio risk management: organization, process, and culture. This study investigates their linkage to portfolio success, mediated through risk management quality, and, therefore, provides principles for more effective portfolio risk management. The developed framework can be used for further empirical research on the influence of portfolio risk management and its success. 相似文献
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This article investigates the nature and relationship of project portfolio control techniques and portfolio management performance, and how this relationship is moderated by situational idiosyncrasies of internal and external dynamics, industries, governance types, and geographic location. A worldwide questionnaire with 242 responses was used, of which 136 high‐performing responses were filtered out for quantitative analysis of best practices. Three portfolio control factors were identified: portfolio selection, portfolio reporting, and decision‐making style. Two measures for portfolio management performance were identified: achievement of desired portfolio results and achievement of project and program purpose. The results indicate that different portfolio control mechanisms are associated with different performance measures. A contingency model was developed, including moderating effects by contextual variables. 相似文献
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The Effectiveness of Portfolio Risk Diversification: An Additive Approach by Project Replication 下载免费PDF全文
This article proposes a probabilistic approach to project operational risk and project portfolio risk diversification. The analysis rests on a fundamental distinction between a fractional and an additive approach for constructing portfolios. Since the additive approach excludes variance as a measure of risk, the project's operational risk is defined by its probability of loss. Paradoxically, the effectiveness of any firm's portfolio risk diversification process will be negatively related to the operational risk of its representative project. We also present the conditions under which risk management and efficiency management can contribute to the firm's strategic imperative of lowering its operational risk. 相似文献
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Project selection problems are inherently complex problems with multiple and often conflicting objectives. The complexity of project selection problems is due to the high number of projects from which a subset (portfolio) has to be chosen. Various analytical methods, ranging from the simple weighted sum to complex mathematical programming have been proposed to solving these problems. We propose an integrated approach for strategic and sustainable project portfolio selection, which is composed of two distinct but interrelated modules. In the first module, we use the strategic planning and sustainability concepts to select a set of promising projects. In the second module, we use a project portfolio selection procedure to choose among the promising projects identified in the first module. A structural equation model is used to analyze and explain the relationships among different factors in the proposed framework. More specifically, we investigate the effects of: (1) strategic level performance on sustainability, post‐implementation, and overall performance; (2) implementation performance on post‐implementation and overall performance; (3) portfolio selection performance on implementation and overall performance; and (4) post‐implementation performance on overall performance. A case study in investment banking is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and exhibit the efficacy of the procedures and algorithms. 相似文献
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层次分析法因其简洁明晰,使用方便而得到广泛应用,但在环保工程项目领域的研究应用相对较少,基于环保工程项目的特点,本文建立有针对性的符合项目实际需求的指标体系,利用层次分析法求解,从而为工程项目采购一线的管理者提供一种快速有效的科学决策方法,评选出可靠的供应商,降低潜在的风险,对环保工程项目采购管理而言是一个很重要的环节。 相似文献
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