Inequality and Crime: Separating the Effects of Permanent and Transitory Income*

Earlier studies on income inequality and crime have typically used total income or total earnings. However, it is quite likely that it is the changes in permanent rather than in transitory income that affects crime rates. The purpose of this paper is therefore to disentangle the two effects by, first, estimating region‐specific inequality in permanent and transitory income and, second, estimating crime equations with the two separate income components as explanatory variables. The results indicate that it is important to separate the two effects; while an increase in the inequality in permanent income yields a positive and significant effect on total crimes and three different property crimes, an increase in the inequality in transitory income has no significant effect. Using a traditional, aggregate, measure of income yields insignificant effects on crime.     

EXTENSIONS TO THE MULTIPLIER DECOMPOSITION APPROACH IN A SAM FRAMEWORK: AN APPLICATION TO VIETNAM

The aim of this paper is to provide an extension of a technique recently introduced by Pyatt and Round (2006) to decompose each element of the ‘global multiplier matrix’ in ‘microscopic detail’ in order to capture the linkages between each household groups’ income and the exogenously injected income of other accounts. The methodology we propose allows dividing the impact of exogenous injections into four different effects: direct-direct effect (D-D); direct-indirect effect (D-I); indirect-direct effect (I-D) and indirect-indirect effect (I-I). Results using the 2000 Vietnamese SAM show that the highest direct effects on the income of household groups are related to exogenous injections into the agricultural sector, while the highest indirect effects result from investing in other agriculture-related sectors such as, for example, food processing. Policy interventions focusing on the agricultural sector and on rural households will thus have the greatest effect on reducing the level of income inequality.     

Re-examining the relationship between economic growth and inequality in the New Member States

The link between income inequality and economic growth has raised many debates in the literature and has generated a large spectrum of results over time. This paper aims at analyzing the relationship between economic growth and income inequality, as well as their macroeconomic and institutional determinants in the New Member States, between 2000 and 2009. In the presence of a set of explicative variables, the economic growth influences the social inequality through a U-shaped relationship. Health, education and gross capital formation generate different direct and indirect effects on income inequality as the per capita GDP growths, while the transition indicators are found to be either common or specific determinants of inequality and growth.     

Income distribution and well‐being: what can we learn from subjective data?

Abstract. How does the income of others affect my own welfare? This survey of the empirical literature stresses the contribution of subjective data to the understanding of this issue, with an attempt to disentangle direct effects (preference interdependence) from indirect informational effects. It shows that perceived mobility is central to the link between other people's income and individual satisfaction, as it determines individual opportunities and risks. Agents also appreciate the egalitarian nature of mobility itself, so that individual welfare depends on dynamic inequality rather than static income distribution. These studies illustrate how subjective data can bring information on aspects of utility and social interactions that are beyond the scope of the method based on action‐revealed preferences.     

The coupon-induced tax clientele effect in bond prices

A pricing model for default-free bonds under differentia! taxation of coupon income and capital gains is presented which explicitly considers coupon-induced tax clienteles. Subsequent analysis provides indirect evidence in support of the existence of the coupon-induced tax clientele effect, while direct evidence is provided by analyzing differences in marginal tax rates estimated across different coupon levels for sets of US Treasury bonds with the same maturity date. The results are also generally consistent with the traditional notion that marginal tax rates are inversely related to coupon levels.     

Does GINI respond to income volatility in an asymmetric manner? Evidence from 41 countries

Previous studies that assessed the impact of income volatility (as a measure of economic uncertainty) on income inequality relied upon either cross-sectional data or panel data, mostly due to the lack of sufficient time-series observations. Now that enough time-series observations are available for many countries, we revisit the issue and assess the possible asymmetric effects of income volatility on income inequality in each of the 41 countries. We find short-run asymmetric effects in almost all countries, short-run impact asymmetric effects in 20 countries, and long-run asymmetric effects in 21 countries. There was much less support when we engaged only in symmetric analysis.     

Retirement,financial incentives and health

This paper aims to assess empirically the relative size of incentive effects and health for the retirement decision. We specify and estimate a dynamic model for retirement behaviour that explicitly takes account of health and eligibility conditions and replacement rates of alternative exit routes from the labour force. A range of health instruments are constructed from estimates of a model for health dynamics and these are used to assess the effect of reporting errors and of endogeneity of health on the estimates of the retirement model. Our results provide evidence that health and retirement are endogenously related. Health matters but the size of the health effect depends crucially on the health measure used. We find that subjective health measures overstate the effect of health on retirement and that endogeneity of health suppresses the health effect. Incentive effects are relatively insensitive to alternative specifications for health. The incentive effects are strong for early retirement (ER) schemes. There is evidence that income streams in alternative exit routes are compared in the retirement decision and that alternative exit routes act as substitutes.     

Can innovation improve income inequality? Evidence from panel data

Income inequality is a source of social instability and armed conflict, which in turn are detrimental to economic development. This study examines the role of innovation in income inequality in twenty-three developed countries, using a panel mean group estimator that takes cross-sectional dependence into consideration. Three income inequality indicators are used: the Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID), the University of Texas Inequality Project (UTIP), and the Estimated Household Income Inequality (EHII). The innovation indicators are patent applications and patents granted. The empirical results based on the common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) reveal that innovation widens income inequality. We also investigate whether the innovation–income inequality nexus is subject to a country’s level of globalization and financial development. The findings suggest that the interaction terms between innovation with these two variables have positive effects on income inequality, whereas innovation failed to reduce income inequality. Globalization and financial development are found to drive income inequality. The empirical results are robust to different income inequality and innovation measures as well as estimation techniques.     

Distributional implications of informal economy in the EU countries: Accounting for the spread of tax evasion benefits and cultural characteristics

This study provides evidence about the impact of informal economy on income inequality by using annual cross-country panel data from 28 European Union countries observed during the period 2005–2017. Particular attention is dedicated to the cultural setting which is expected to impact taxpayers’ behaviour and thereby income distribution. The study reveals a relationship between the size of the underground economy and income inequality, which is negative when approaching domestic informality and positive when international tax evasion by individuals is related to the top-bottom income disparity. Moreover, a delay of one-year is needed for these effects to occur, sustaining the hypothesis of secondary consequences of the informality. The study also shows that a set of cultural peculiarities are relevant for the nexus of international tax evasion by individuals and income polarisation. The inequality enhancing effect of the offshore activities is larger in countries with high degree of uncertainty avoidance and power distance, and low level of indulgence and long-term orientation respectively.     

Understanding the determinants of crime

In this paper, we use an overlapping generations model where individuals are allowed to engage in both legitimate market activities and criminal behavior in order to assess the role of certain factors on the property crime rate. In particular, we investigate if differences in the unemployment rate, fraction of low human capital individuals in an economy, apprehension probability, duration of a jail sentence, and income inequality could be capable of generating large differences in crime rates that are observed across countries. We find that small differences in the apprehension probability and income inequality can generate quantitatively significant differences in the crime rates across similar environments.     

The Distributional Effects of Tax‐benefit Policies under New Labour: A Decomposition Approach*

I revisit the distributional effects of tax‐benefit policy reforms under New Labour using counterfactual microsimulations embedded in a Shapley decomposition of time change in inequality and poverty indices. This makes it possible to quantify the relative effect of policy changes compared to all other changes, and to check the sensitivity of this policy effect to the use of (i) income vs. price indexation, and (ii) base vs. end period data. Inequality and poverty depth would have increased, and the sharp fall in child poverty would not have occurred, had the reforms of income support and tax credits not been implemented.     

Social identity, inequality and conflict

I extend the standard materialistic rational choice model of conflict to consider groups. In particular, I consider how the aggregate amount of conflict in society depends on which groups form and oppose each other. The study is motivated by empirical findings about the relationship between inequality, conflict and economic development. I focus on a salient comparison: ethnic groups vs. social classes. I show that, contrary to the conventional wisdom, class conflict is not necessarily worse than ethnic conflict. In fact, ethnic conflict is general worse when the distribution of income is more equal. I also investigate the impact of the fact that while ethnicity is immutable, since there is social mobility, class is not. I show that the direct impact of mobility of conflict is as conventionally believed, but that there are important indirect effects which make the net effect ambiguous. Received: June, 1998 / Accepted: November 22, 1999     

DOES GOVERNMENT SPENDING AFFECT INCOME INEQUALITY? A META-REGRESSION ANALYSIS

In this paper findings of a meta-regression analysis are presented exploring the effects of government spending on income inequality, with a particular focus on low- and middle-income countries. We identify a total of 84 separate studies containing over 900 estimates of the effect of one or more measures of spending on one or more measures of income inequality. The results show some evidence of a moderate negative relationship between government spending and income inequality, which is strongest for social welfare and other social spending, and when using the Gini coefficient or the top income share as the measure of inequality. However, both the size and direction of the estimated relationship between government spending and income inequality is affected by a range of other factors, including the control variables and estimation method used. We also find evidence of publication bias, in that negative estimates of the relationship appear to be under-reported in the literature.     

非正规就业与城镇居民收入分配：1991~2009年

本文利用1991-2009年的CHNS数据使用分位数回归法及基于反事实分析的FFL分解法分析非正规就业比重及非正规就业与正规就业的收入差距变动对城镇居民收入分配的影响。结果表明：第一阶段（1991-2000）,非正规就业的比重及两者之间收入差距的增加是城镇居民收入差距扩大的重要原因;第二阶段（2000-2009）,非正规就业比重的增加依旧引起了收入差距的扩大,但两者之间收入差距的下降引起了收入差距的缩小,但前者大于后者,造成第二阶段城镇居民收入差距的扩大。     

农村人口老龄化对收入不平等影响的实证研究

利用1989年-2011年的农户微观家计调查数据,采用方差分解和回归分解相结合的方法,考察农村人口老龄化对收入不平等的影响。研究发现农村收入不平等的总体变化主要是由组间效应所引起,即不同出生组之间不平等程度的加剧是收入不平等的主因;无论采用方差分解法还是采用回归分解法得到的研究结论表明,农村人口老龄化的确加剧了收入不平等,其影响程度相对较小,但从时间变化趋势来看,人口老龄化效应有增强之势。     

Global estimates of growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle: evidence from World Bank’s classification countries

This study extended the concept of ‘growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle’ by using the principle component approach which allows us to composite different poverty and inequality indicators into one single index that contains most of the useful information from the original dataset. Using the idea of GIP triangle, this study examines the long-run relationship among weighted poverty index (which comprises headcount ratio, poverty gap and squared poverty gap); weighted inequality index (i.e., Watts Index, Gini Index and MLD Index) and average monthly per capita income in the designated 138 countries according to World Bank’s classification over a period of 2005–2010. The data set mainly contain countries’ unit record household survey at least one which is conducted between the countries during the sample period. The regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty reflects that income inequality increases poverty while economic growth decreases poverty. It indicates that the impact of inequality in increasing poverty is a somewhat greater than that of growth in average income in reducing overall poverty in a sample countries. The other regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and poverty on income inequality showed that the poverty itself is also likely to be a barrier for poverty reduction; and inequality seems to predict lower future growth rates. The final regression model depicting the impact of poverty and income inequality on mean income of the household suggests that poverty itself reduces mean income of the household while income inequality increases economic growth. The results are interesting and simply suggest that whenever social institutions malfunction, the incidence of damage would usually be distributed unevenly over the society’s members.     

DID INEQUALITY CAUSE THE U.S. FINANCIAL CRISIS?

In his widely discussed book ‘Fault Lines’ (2010), Raghuram Rajan argues that many low and middle income consumers have reduced their saving and increased debt since income inequality started to soar in the United States in the early 1980s. This has temporarily kept private consumption and employment high, but it also contributed to the creation of a credit bubble. This surge in household indebtedness turned out to be unsustainable in the financial crisis starting in 2007. Although Rajan and others emphasize the role of government in promoting credit to those households with declining relative (permanent) incomes, other strands of the literature have focused more explicitly on the implications of rising inequality for aggregate demand and households’ demand for credit. These differences in emphasis may explain why the literature on the inequality‐crisis nexus appears somewhat disparate, even though the various strands are far from mutually exclusive but rather complement each other. We therefore place the ‘Rajan hypothesis’ in the context of competing theories of consumption, and survey the empirical literature on the effects of inequality on household behaviour. We conclude that the empirical evidence calls for a renaissance of the relative income hypothesis of consumption.     

The Sociopolitical Analysis of Global Inflation: A Theoretical and Empirical Examination of an Influential Basic Explanation

A bstract . One variant of the influential sociopolitical model of inflation is examined, a version distinguished by its econometric testable form and its use of relative deprivation as a principal efficient cause of global inflation. Hence its relevance to the contemporary debate on the nature and origins of the inflationary process. Specifically, the model postulates that the rate of inflation in a country is inversely related to its level of per capita income (and social security expenditure ) and directly related to its degree of income inequality. It emerges from our analysis, however, that the association between the level of economic development and the comparative propensity to inflate is of theoretically ambiguous sign. Also, the empirical robustness of the postulated relation is in doubt and the multivariate analysis is itself sensitive to the inclusion/ exclusion from the sample of outlier countries. More positively, the general focus of the model on fundamental as opposed to proximate determinants of inflation is to be welcomed. The message is that sociopolitical analysts must sharpen their analytical tools and, in the spirit of the model, formulate testable propositions in an area where economists have tended to overemphasize 'mechanical' relationships/solutions.     

Has Federal Student Aid Contributed to Equality in Higher Education?

ABSTRACT. TO analyze the effect of federal student aid on the structure of the higher educational system, an index of inequality of access is developed It measures the differences in the distribution of income of entering students , as compared to the U S distribution of income at thirteen different categories of institutions Its application shows that structural inequality exists in the nation's system of higher education and that while some improvements occurred in the 1970s, especially at the bottom of the system, by 1986 most of these gains had been eliminated When these indices were regressed against per capita federal student financial aid , relative student costs , and variables reflecting changes in the larger economy, using time series data, the aid variables show little or no statistical effect on the structural inequality of the nation's system of higher education, as measured by the index of inequality On the other hand, the cost variable generally has strong effect The general economic variables occasionally have significant effect