Japan's Growing Outward Direct Investment in East Asia

Japan's outward direct investment (ODI) began to show an obvious expansion since 2005, accompanied by a greater importance in East Asia and in the manufacturing sector. By analyzing the new wave of Japanese ODI, three points are elaborated in this article. First, the recent Japanese ODI did not result in the same industry to be passed from one country to another as elucidated in the flying geese model. Instead, Japan's ODI only promoted the regional divisional of labor in the transport equipment and electrical machinery industries. Second, this study advances the theory of vertical production network by exploring two regional production networks constructed by Japanese ODI, including one between China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong and the other between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Finally, since Japan's economy has been tightly connected with foreign demand via overseas production, this article argues that any sign of Japan's declining ODI will have serious impact to its domestic economic prosperity. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The FTA Music Is Playing in Asia: After ECFA,Will Taiwan Join the Dance?

In the context of stalled multilateral trade negotiations, major trading economies are seeking free trade agreements (FTAs) to secure their market access objectives. Nowhere is this dynamic stronger than in East Asia, where a web of bilateral and plurilateral agreements is stitching together piecewise an Asian free trade area that could plausibly rival the EU and NAFTA trade blocs and where the possibility of a formal pan-Asian agreement has been raised. Taiwan has been largely excluded from this dynamic. However, with the June 29, 2010 signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China, the possibility of Taiwan joining the FTA dance in East Asia would appear to have been greatly strengthened as the advocates had anticipated. This article considers the economic and trade implications of Taiwan's participation versus non-participation in an emerging East Asian trade bloc. We support our analysis with simulations using the GTAP computable general equilibrium model. The article finds that the benefits to Taiwan of participating in such a bloc have increased, as have the opportunity costs of exclusion, since the share of East Asian partners in its trade has risen.     

Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Because many authors have proposed stimulating the ailing Japanese economy by monetary expansion and yen depreciation, we explore the repercussions of depreciating the yen against the dollar on the other East Asian economies – which largely peg to the dollar. Since 1980, economic integration among Japan's neighbours – China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand – has intensified and (except for China and Singapore) their business cycles have been highly synchronised. These cycles have been closely linked to fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate – through changes in the export competitiveness, inflows of foreign direct investment and intra‐Asian income effects. We show that a major yen devaluation would have a negative impact on incomes in other East Asian economies and that it is not a sensible policy option for Japan.     

Are Exports of China,Japan and Korea Diverted in the Major Regional Trading Blocs?

In recent years China, Japan and Korea, the three major economies in East Asia, have been gearing up their efforts to sign free trade agreements with many different regions and countries. One of the main reasons for this is that they fear that with a regionalism movement rising in every corner of the world, their exports are discriminated against and diverted in the trading blocs of other nations. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this is a real fear. We utilise the gravity equation augmented with dummy variables for regional trading blocs in three different specifications. One is the static, standard gravity model to examine the effect of regional blocs on the ‘level’ of exports from these three countries in 2003; the second is the fixed effects and random effects panel models for the period 1993–2003; and the third is the dynamic, partial‐adjustment model to examine the effect of blocs on the ‘changes’ in exports between 1993 and 2003. The results show that trade diversion is observed only for China's exports in EU, EFTA and EAEC, but no diversion effect is observed for Japan's and Korea's exports in any of the major trading blocs. On the other hand, trade creation is observed for exports from China in ASEAN, for exports from Japan in ASEAN, CACM, CARICOM, EAEC, EU and NAFTA, and for exports from Korea in ASEAN, CACM, EAEC and MERCOSUR. Thus, Japan's and Korea's fear of discrimination and trade diversion is ungrounded, while China's fear is grounded only to a limited extent.     

Free Trade Areas in East Asia: Discriminatory or Non‐discriminatory?

The debates on regional trade arrangements in East Asia focus on whether the RTAs can be net trade creating or diverting, and whether they impede multilateral trade liberalisation or not. This paper attempts to answer these questions by quantitatively estimating the economic impact of possible East Asian free trade areas based on a bilateral gravity model, and evaluating the main characteristics of the proposed FTAs. We find that the trade creation effect expected from the proposed East Asian FTAs such as a China‐Japan‐Korea or an ASEAN plus three (China, Japan, Korea) FTA will be significant enough to overwhelm the trade diversion effect. We also judge that East Asian FTAs will likely be a building block for a global free trade.     

The road from Nissan to Samsung: a historical overview of East Asian investment in a UK region

Japan's relationship with the North East of England is often charted from the 1984 investment by the car manufacturer, Nissan, in its Sunderland plant. The aftermath of that investment decision saw not only a wave of Japanese manufacturing investment descending upon the North East but also other investments from Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong following in its wake. This article attempts to situate the experience of Japanese investment in the North East in the wider context of the region's more long-term associations with Japan. It looks to the legacy of the past in the building of Japanese battleships on Tyneside and other episodes of technology transfer in the late nineteenth century. It juxtaposes the subsequent changes in the region's industrial base with the post-war history of Japanese investment in the UK. With the arrival of NSK, the Japanese ball-bearings manufacturer, in County Durham in 1974, a new relationship can be seen to have emerged along with a regional infrastructure which supported further East Asian investment at the height of the bubble economy. The spreading out of that investment, its social and cultural impact and the consequences of the bubble bursting are explored at a time when claims for the dawning of ‘the Pacific century’ have been seriously called into question.     

中韩建立FTA的可行性与经济效应分析

在经济全球化和区域经济一体化背景下,各国经济合作程度大大增强。东亚地区尤其是中韩两国的经贸关系日渐密切,加强区域内合作的呼声不断高涨。在此背景下,中韩两国政府提出了建立中国-韩国自由贸易区的构想。建立中韩FTA的政策建议包括采取措施缩减贸易逆差,有计划分步骤地扩大合作,中韩两国政府应加强经济合作与交流和加强两国企业之间的文化交流。     

Successes and dangers of Japanese foreign trade strategy

Japan's high and increasing trade and current account surpluses have aroused in the other industrialized nations a growing fear of Far Eastern competition. Some countries consider that protectionist measures are the only suitable response to increasing imports from Japan. Japan's “unfair” conduct of its foreign trade is often cited as a reason for such a reaction. Is this reproach justified? What can be done to avert the dangers to both Japan's foreign trade and the world economy caused by this situation?     

Using complex networks analysis to assess the evolution of international economic integration: The cases of East Asia and Latin America

This paper exploits recently-developed indicators based on network analysis to investigate the pattern of international integration followed by East Asian countries and compares it with the Latin American performance. Standard trade openness indicators fall short of portraying the peculiarity of the Asian experience, and of explaining why other emerging markets with similar characteristics have been less successful over the last 25 years. The analysis offers an alternative perspective on the issue regarding international economic integration by taking into account the whole structure of international trade relationships and by determining both the position of countries in the world trade network, and its evolution over time. We find that East Asian countries are more integrated into the world economy, as they have moved from the periphery of the network towards its core. Our results support the idea that the degree of openness matters but it is not enough to characterize economic integration. The number and identity of trade partners, and the specific individual structure of trade for each country, need to be incorporated in order to fully characterize international economic integration. By doing so, it is possible to argue that the integration process of the East Asian countries mirrors their high economic performance, while the lower degree of integration of Latin America can be related to the lack of economic development of the region, even though their degree of openness has increased.     

The revealed comparative advantage of the east asian NICs

The spectacular export performance of the East Asian NICs is clearly indicated by their increasing shares of manufactured exports in the world markets. However, the conventional wisdom that the comparative advantage of industrialized countries such as Japan has systematically shifted to the NICs is challenged by the results from this study. A detailed analysis of the threedigit SITC product categories for manufactures indicates that NIC exports have not replaced Japan's in the U.S. market. The growth of manufactured exports from the NICs is moving along with the growth of Japan's exports in similar product categories but at different stages of the product cycle or of technology sophistication. Hence, the NICs, rather than replacing the exports from Japan, are merely supplying some complementary manufactured products to the industrialized market.     

On Determinants of Japan's Foreign Direct Investment in Eastern Europe

Summary

The paper takes issue with some untested but often repeated assertions that Japanese FDI positions in Eastern Europe are weak. Japan's economic relations with Eastern Europe, including FDI, should be understood in the context of Japan's global economic relations. Therefore, it might not be appropriate to approach the question armed with absolute FDI numbers only. So, the author proceeds to empirically test some of these assertions by calculating directional trade ratios and directional FDI ratios! As a result of his approach, he claims that Japan's FDI position in Poland is not significantly weaker compared to its trade position or to other advanced countries' positions. The paper also suggests that, although Japan's FDI in Poland has been undoubtedly stagnant, the larger problem is that the Polish FDI environment is still problematic due mainly to repayment risks and rather low levels of real per capita income.     

中朝韩经贸关系纵深发展的战略进路

随着东北亚地区经济联系的日益紧密,域内国家间的相互依存度明显提高.东北亚经济合作划时代的契机是域内国家签订自由贸易协定,从而平行地促进产业分工.中朝韩三国经贸合作规模的提升和发展速度的提高,可以推动一度因日本态度消极而搁浅的中日韩自由贸易区建设,并将成为东北亚经济合作发展的催化剂.中朝经贸发展的能动力在于中国建设性的参与朝鲜的经济革新发展,而中韩经贸发展的增长点则在于加速建立自由贸易区.     

The Role of Japan in Korea's Acquisition of Technology

Many developing countries suffer from shortages of technical capabilities which can provide a greater handicap to economic development than shortages of capital. The remarkable success of Korea has attracted much interest in how Korea acquired the requisite technology for its rapid industrial development. The few studies on Korea's technology acquisition tend to credit ‘internal’ factors such as the government's role in purchasing licenses, providing incentives and training. This article adopts a more holistic approach by considering some of the ‘external’ factors, in particular the role of Japan. It analyses first the various channels of technology transfer and shows the strong influence of Japan. Second, it analyses the motives behind Japan's transmission of technology. The article concludes by stressing that, although the role of the government was important, more attention should be given to the interests of the major donor, Japan in order to understand Korea's technological acquisitions.     

Financial Integration in East Asia: An Empirical Investigation

The central objective of this paper is to empirically evaluate the degree of linkages among East Asian equity and bond markets. Using data from the IMF’s Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), we find that intra‐East Asian financial asset holdings of four East Asian countries – Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore – are larger than the levels predicted by the financial gravity model. However, our analysis suggests that this result is likely to be driven by intra‐regional trade linkages and reflect those linkages. Therefore, the salient implication for regional policymakers is that they should continue to promote intra‐regional financial integration. This paper also aims to analyse the impact of three different types of country‐specific risks – political, economic and financial risks – on investment from the four countries. This analysis yields a clear positive relationship between destination‐country risk, in particular political risk, and capital inflows.     

The Foreign Exchange Origins of Japan's Economic Slump and Low Interest Liquidity Trap

Japan's macroeconomic problem has yet to be properly diagnosed. Throughout the 1990s, policy makers could not decide on the proper macro economic measures to combat the country's severe economic slump. We propose a unified explanation, with deep historical roots, of why aggregate private demand failed to recover after Japan's stock and real estate bubbles burst in 1991 and deflationary pressure continues. The problem is not purely ‘made in Japan’. It arises from Japan's unbalanced mercantile relationship with the United States. Starting in the early 1970s, numerous trade disputes between the two countries created tensions that were (temporarily) resolved by the yen going ever higher against the dollar up to 1995. In the last two decades, this persistent pressure for the yen to rise was further aggravated by Japan's large current‐account (saving) surpluses as the counterpart of America's large current account (saving) deficits. The legacy is the expectation that trade and financial tensions will recur so that the yen will be higher 10, 20, or 30 years from now –with Japan's (wholesale) price level forced correspondingly lower and nominal interest rates on yen assets remaining more than four percentage points less than those on dollar assets. This fear of yen appreciation, whose timing is erratic and unpredictable, now inhibits private domestic investment by both Japanese firms and households. Our theory also explains why, in the late 1990s, nominal interest rates on short‐term yen assets were compressed toward zero so as to destroy the normal profit margins of the banking system. In this liquidity trap, the Bank of Japan –whose monetary policy has been quite ‘expansionary’–is powerless to stimulate the flagging economy. To spring the liquidity trap, eliminate deflationary pressure, and restore macro economic balance in Japan, the American and Japanese governments must act jointly to quash the expectation that the yen will be higher in the future than it is today.     

Changing facets of leadership in East Asia: globalization,innovation and performance in Japan,South Korea and China

ABSTRACT

Japan, South Korea and China are the three juggernauts of the East Asian economy. In gross domestic product terms, China is the world’s second largest economy, Japan the third and South Korea the eleventh. Also, Japan and South Korea are the only two of the OECD’s prestigious Development Assistance Committee members from Asia, providing a large combined annual budget to developing countries, and the only two Asian countries of the seven-member 50–20 Club with members with a population of 50 million or more and a per capita GDP of US$20,000 or more. Many studies have offered explanations of this Asian economic and corporate success, although few have attempted to explain the leadership styles in these three countries. Globalization has also changed these economies enormously, leading to the possible convergence with universalism forces and commensurate globalization of their leadership styles. This collection, therefore, presents some of the most recent findings of leadership studies on Japan, South Korea and China in light of this.     

中国在东亚生产网络中的分工地位检验——基于贸易增长途径的视角

运用贸易增长分解方法,将东亚各国对中国的出口增长分解为广度增长、数量增长与价格增长,从贸易增长途径这一新视角探讨了中国与东亚各国的相对分工地位。研究结果显示,日本、韩国、新加坡和马来西亚四国对中国的出口以价格增长为主,而菲律宾、泰国和印度尼西亚三国主要以数量增长带动对中国的出口贸易。这说明中国并非位于分工体系的底端,而且其分工地位将逐步提高,因为在东亚七国对中国的出口贸易中,数量增长表现出了趋于主导的态势。由此看来,中国在东亚生产网络中的分工地位处在上升阶段,并逐步向分工体系的高端收敛。     

服务贸易视角下中日韩贸易竞争与互补分析

作为东亚地区经济发展的核心,中日韩三国服务贸易的发展一直备受关注。日本服务贸易的竞争力水平是中日韩三国中最强的,其次是中国,最后是韩国。中国具有竞争力的行业主要是建筑、电信、计算机和信息以及其他商业服务,韩国具有竞争力的行业主要是旅游和建筑服务,日本具有竞争力的行业主要是运输、建筑、专业权利和特许服务以及政府服务。进一步对中日韩服务贸易的影响因素进行分析发现:人均国内生产总值、外商直接投资、货物贸易出口额和服务贸易开放水平与中日韩服务贸易竞争力水平都呈显著正相关关系,其中,服务贸易开放度水平对中日韩服务贸易竞争力水平的影响最大,外商直接投资对中日韩服务贸易竞争力水平的影响最小。     

东亚“10+3”国家农产品国际竞争力分解及比较研究——基于分类农产品的CMS模型

随着东亚地区双边或多边贸易协定的不断增加,经济一体化成为了各国的最终诉求。然而农产品贸易问题却始终是谈判进程的主要阻力之一。本文侧重于对东亚区域内东盟10国和中日韩3国,就劳动密集型和资本密集型农产品分阶段进行恒定市场份额(CMS)的比较分析。得出的主要结论是:东亚地区农产品市场总体需求潜力很大;产业和结构的合理和完善可在一定程度上提高农产品的竞争力;中国农产品出口份额相对较大但主要依靠低廉的价格,并且竞争力逐渐减弱;政府制定的贸易政策和外部机会在未来农产品贸易中发挥着越来越重要的作用,区域经济合作是一种理想的选择方式。     

东亚信息技术产业的区内与区外贸易模式实证分析

东亚IT产业发展的贸易模式有如下特点:第一,东亚IT产业的技术来源于美国。通过承接美国计算机企业的"外包"业务,东亚在IT硬件设备制造领域建立了完整的生产体系。第二,东亚与美国的IT产品贸易主要集中在集成电路与电子部件,反映了美国企业将IT中间产品"外包"到东亚区域以降低生产成本,推动了全球IT产品的国际外包浪潮。第三,东亚区域内贸易模式不同于东亚—美国之间的贸易特征,日本、韩国和东盟通过向我国出口集成电路及其电子零部件获得了巨额的贸易顺差,而我国则将进口的集成电路和电子零部件装配成电子产品出口到美国和世界各地。