燃煤电厂脱硝电价研究——基于经营期电价与模拟退火算法

本文在经营期电价方法计算脱硝电价的基础上,为了简化该法复杂的计算过程,提出运用模拟退火算法思想对脱硝电价的计算进行优化,并建立了基于经营期电价与模拟退火算法的脱硝电价计算模型,最后,以新建电厂国华太电四期(2×600MW)烟气脱硝工程为例,验证了模型的合理性。     

农户对新农合的需求研究:一个分析框架

对农民新农合的需求作了框架性研究。运用线形扩展支出模型定量分析了农民的支付能力。农村贫困人群确实存在支付能力问题。政府应对贫困人群的合作医疗筹资给予更大的支持力度。对于绝大数农民, 关键不在于支付能力, 而在于支付意愿。对农民的支付意愿构建了国家、社区、家庭和个人的四维解释框架。在国家层面, 影响因素主要是对政府的信任程度、政府的"机构能力"以及补贴的力度大小;在社区层面, 社会资本在社区健康融资中发挥着重要作用;家庭对合作医疗的支付意愿主要取决于其对参与的成本和收益的比较, 同时, 家庭成员内部风险分担机制和家庭之间风险分担机制也会对家庭的支付意愿产生影响。支付意愿还和农民的个人特征相关。     

城市居民对居住区位的偏好及其区位选择的实证研究

利用详实的社会调查数据,考察了我国城市居民对居住区位的偏好和支付意愿,以及居民实际的区位选择。首先对影响居民对居住区位支付意愿高低(即支付意愿梯度)的因素进行了理论分析,分析了因素之间的相关关系,并探讨了研究支付意愿与区位选择差异性的方法。在理论分析基础上,建立了支付意愿梯度模型和区位选择模型,利用北京、上海、广州、武汉和重庆五城市的调研数据对模型参数进行了估计。结果显示,高收入群体仍倾向于居住在距离市中心偏近的位置,工作地点、对环境的偏好、城市规模和郊区基础设施完善程度都会从各种方面影响支付意愿的梯度值。市场力量已经在居住区位资源的配置中发挥重要作用,但存量住房流动性低和一部分居民的融资能力不足仍阻碍了其自由的区位选择。     

浅谈意愿支付法

在药物经济学中,病人躯体和精神上痛苦所带来的隐性成本难以测量和界定。现在国际上看好的方法便是意愿支付法,本文就其概念、测量方法、特点进行了介绍;并利用已有的方法和指标进行评价与验证,探讨意愿支付法的合理范围,减少了意愿支付法的主观因素,为以后的意愿支付法研究提供借鉴。     

众筹模式下心理距离对投资者支付意愿的影响

众筹是一种新型的网络融资模式,投资者对项目的支付意愿受到众多因素影响。将众筹的研究视角延伸至投资者心理行为领域,从投资者心理角度,研究时间和空间距离与投资者支付意愿的关系,应用解释水平理论,验证了解释水平与心理距离匹配对投资者支付意愿作用的差异。     

公益林生态效益价值居民支付意愿实证分析——以贵阳市为例

以贵阳市公益林为研究对象,采用条件价值评估法（CVM）,通过设计问卷、调查实施,对贵阳市居民公益林补偿的支付意愿（WTP）及影响因素进行了分析。结果显示：（1）73.6%贵阳市居民家庭对公益林生态效益价值有支付意愿,平均意愿支付额为每户家庭每年人民币213.96元;（2）支付意愿受社会经济因素综合影响,其中年龄、收入水平及环境关注态度对支付意愿具有显著影响,是影响支付意愿的主要因素。在对居民支付意愿影响因素进行分析的基础上,提出了一些建议性政策。     

煤矿城市转型成本的支付

在借鉴国外煤矿城市转型成本支付的经验基础上,总结我国近年来对煤矿城市给予政策支持和资金支持的实践,在对煤矿城市转型成本分析的基础上,研究和解决煤矿城市转型成本的支付主体问题,指出国家、地方、企业、社会和个人在转型成本的支付上应当承担的责任。     

关于脱硝电价成本测算与试行政策研究

节能减排一直是现代经济社会发展的重点内容，火电厂脱硝改造也成为社会上下热点关注的话题。本文针对现阶段我国脱硝电价政策试行的情况。以及脱硝电价试点存在的问题进行分析，提出了一些个人观点，希望对我国脱硝电价的进一步改造和完善的实施有所帮助。     

基于条件价值法的绿色基础设施社会 效用评估——以苏州金鸡湖景区为例

绿色基础设施的开发利用不仅要考虑经济可行性,即政府或私人投资者的直接成本和收入,还要考虑外部性的社会福利或成本。基于随机抽样调查,针对苏州金鸡湖绿色基础设施的特点,利用条件价值法(Contingent Valuation Method,CVM)对其非使用价值进行货币化评估,并分析了相关影响因素。研究结果表明,苏州金鸡湖保护式开发的平均支付意愿满足理性选择理论,性别和年龄等社会因素对支付意愿有显著影响,整体社会效益明显。研究结论有助于政府和公众从社会效用角度审视绿色基础设施,为政府城市更新、生态恢复等决策的制定提供理论支持。     

我国脱硝电价政策设计研究

脱硝电价政策是重要的NOx控制政策,厘清我国脱硝电价政策的运行实施流程,是进行脱硝电价政策改革设计的重要前提。文章通过总结我国脱硝电价政策设计的实施框架、执行模式,以及补贴标准的制定方法,提出现行的脱硝电价政策存在补贴标准"一刀切"、各部门协作执行效率较低、相关鼓励措施不够完善等问题,认为基于"区域调整系数"的分区补贴模式是较为公平、可行与科学的补贴标准制定方法。     

Price effects of independent transmission system operators in the United States electricity market

In 1996, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) sought to “remove impediments to competition in the wholesale bulk power marketplace and to bring more efficient, lower cost power to the Nation’s electricity consumers” through a series of market rules. A product of these rules was the establishment of regional transmission organizations (RTOs) and independent system operators (ISOs) charged with facilitating equal access to the transmission grid for electricity suppliers. Whether these changes in market structure have succeeded in achieving FERC’s goal to provide “lower cost power to the Nation’s electricity consumers” remains an open question. This paper utilizes a panel data set of the 48 contiguous United States and a treatment effects model in first differences to determine whether there have been changes in delivered electric prices as a result of the establishment of ISOs and RTOs. To avoid the confounding effects of electric restructuring, the model is estimated with the full panel data set, and then again without the states that have restructured their electric markets. This estimation shows that electricity prices fall approximately 4.8 % in the first 2 years of an ISO’s operation and that this result is statistically significant. However, this result is dependent on the presence of states that restructured their electricity markets. When these restructured states are removed from the data set the price effects of RTOs become indistinguishable from zero. The paper concludes that rate agreements are the principal source of the observed decrease in prices and that RTOs have not had the desired effect on electricity prices.     

基于BARY曲线的基本电价测算模型研究

本文针对目前两部制电价中基本电费按容量计费导致基本电价水平偏低、不能合理配置电力资源的问题,以长期边际成本理论为基础,结合描述电力系统负荷特性同时率与负荷率关系的BARY经验曲线,构建了容量成本在基本电费和电度电费中的分摊模型,并用某市电力局提供的有关数据,依据该模型测算了按电压等级和负荷特性划分的分类用户的基本电价。结果表明,该模型是确定基本电价的一种可行工具。     

The Impact of the EU ETS on Prices,Profits and Emissions in the Power Sector: Simulation Results with the COMPETES EU20 Model

This paper analyses the impact of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on electricity prices, in particular on wholesale power markets across the EU. To study this impact, this paper discusses the major results of a bottom-up modelling analysis of the implications of emissions trading for the performance of the wholesale power market in 20 European countries. The analyses show that a significant part of the costs of (freely allocated) CO₂ emission allowances is passed through to power prices, resulting in higher electricity prices for consumers and additional (‘windfall’) profits for power producers, even in cases of full auctioning. In addition, they show that the ETS-induced increases in power prices depend not only on the level of CO₂ prices but also on the structure of the power market, i.e., the incidence of market power, and the price responsiveness of power demand. Finally, the analyses show that the internalization and pass-through of carbon costs are crucial elements in a policy regime to reduce CO₂ emissions by both changing the mix of power generation technologies and lowering total electricity demand.     

A COMPARISON OF SOME SHORT-CUT METHODS OF ESTIMATING REAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA

Several recent studies of short-cut estimates comparing real income (on a purchasing power basis) of countries are reviewed, including methods comparing real income based on indicators, like electricity consumption. New estimates are presented for 101 countries which had a tradition of conventional national income estimates in 1965, and for 40 countries without extended national income series. One conclusion from the empircial analysis was that until there exist a large number of countries for which purchasing power estimates of real income are available, it is difficult to discriminate between alternative short-cut methods using indicators, and difficult to estimate real per capita incomes of low income countries without substantial errors of estimate. The paper advocates more purchasing power estimates, and institutionalizing the collection of international prices of specified items so that abbreviated market baskets can be readily compared across countries.     

Do German renewable energy resources affect prices and mitigate market power in the French electricity market ?

Several empirical studies show that renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, typically supplied at low marginal cost, can cause electricity market prices to fall. Recent theoretical research and simulations also highlight the link between the integration of renewable energy and market performance in an oligopolistic energy market. This article looks at these dynamics in the context of cross-border effects between two highly interconnected electricity markets, France and Germany. Using a rich panel dataset for hourly data from November 2009 to July 2015, I estimate the impact of German wind and solar power production on both prices and market power in the French wholesale market. The findings highlight the importance of coordinating energy policies via joint renewable energy support schemes among interconnected European electricity markets.     

Market power in the Spanish electricity auction

Hourly data from the Spanish day-ahead electricity auction is used to obtain a lower bound measure of generators’ market power. Our method is not based on cost estimates but rather on the behavioral differences between strategic generators and more competitive producers. The results indicate that, despite the price cap effect of regulation in this market, the larger operators in the day-ahead market are able to increase significantly prices above the competitive benchmark. We also show that the two large generators do not exploit the full potential of their market power.     

CARBON REDUCTION COSTS IN NEW ENGLAND'S POWER SECTOR

This paper examines the cost of reducing carbon emissions in New England's power sector. The analysis relies on detailed sectoral studies of costs and resource potentials for demand-side efficiency, cogeneration, renewables, and conventional resource options. Sectoral studies' results were integrated using a production-cost model to estimate the total cost and rate impacts of carbon reduction strategies relative to a business-as-usual forecast. To capture potential uncertainties, the analysis takes into account variations in capital costs, fuel prices, resource utilization levels, and base case retirements of existing power plants. Results show that New England's power sector can freeze carbon emissions at current levels or reduce carbon emissions while simultaneously decreasing customers' total electricity bills.     

理顺价格机制彻底解决电荒

近年来,随着我国经济高速发展,能源需求日益增加,“电荒”现象愈演愈烈。主要原因是由于价格机制不顺,包括电网与电源企业利益分配失衡,火电与新能源价格、电煤与煤电价格、高油价与电价、电价与CPI等机制的不协调。只有理顺价格机制,才能彻底解决电荒危机。     

湖南省人均需电量回归模型的建立及其预测应用

在电力项目前期调研与论证过程中,必须对电力需求进行预测,以提高决策质量。本文采用基于人均GDP需电量的预测方法对湖南省电力市场需求状况做出了分析和预测。结果显示我省电力消费增长速度和国民经济增长速度基本一致,但电力发展仍略低于经济发展速度。需加大建设投入,提高装机总量,并合理调整电力生产结构。