Can process-based modelling and economic valuation of ecosystem services inform land management policy at a catchment scale?

Land produces a range of benefits, from ecosystem services, but markets only incentivise the production of a small proportion of them. The Ecosystem Approach develops plans for moving towards a more optimal mix. This requires stakeholders to understand the value of ecosystem services and how these values change with land-use and management. We investigate whether process-based modelling and economic valuation can help stakeholders to do this. We do this by applying these tools to a plan to improve ecosystem services delivery in a catchment. To be used in decision-support, analytical approaches need to be relatively inexpensive and rapid, and our analysis was deliberately constrained in this way. Two 25-year future scenarios were developed and compared against a baseline scenario. The first Designated Site scenario was based on enhancing the condition of nationally important nature conservation sites. The second, Ecosystem Services scenario, represented implementing the ecosystem services delivery plan. We modelled the change between the scenarios with an internationally recognised process based ecosystem services toolkit (the Land Use Capability Indicator, LUCI tool) and used the model outputs to inform economic valuation methods. Our selection of which ecosystem services to model and value were initially identified through a participatory approach. However those we could quantify was limited by evidence and data availability. We assessed changes in water quality (phosphorus load), sediment generation, carbon storage and flood regulation. We were able to put economic values on only carbon sequestration and flood regulation. Both the modelling results and the experience of applying the linked modelling-valuation approach are examined in the discussion to consider the limitations to the current usefulness of linking process based modelling to economic valuation for informing land management policy. We explore the origin and nature of these limitations and the key bottlenecks that need to be overcome, applicable to its use in other sites, regions and countries. This includes the availability of suitable coefficients and/or underlying data/evidence to parameterise the model, and the compatibility of model outputs with available economic valuation evidence (for value transfer).     

Forest governance and economic values of forest ecosystem services in Vietnam

Forest ecosystems deliver valuable services to humanity. However, many forests are being degraded and their services have been undervalued. The main problem lies in the inadequate institutional arrangements for forest governance. This paper aims to assess the effects of alternative forest governance arrangements on the provision and economic values of forest ecosystem services (FES) in Vietnam. The study presents a framework for mapping land use and land cover (LULC) change stemming from actual and hypothetical changes in forest governance regimes, quantifies the resulting changes in the provision of FES, and estimates the associated economic values. In the context of the study site in the North Western uplands of Vietnam, we test three alternative forest governance scenarios: business as usual, with a dominant government role; a community-based governance regime; and a private, individual-based forestry governance regime. Scenarios are based quite closely on the way these regimes are (or might be expected to be) implemented in Vietnam. For each forest governance scenario, we map LULC changes based on land suitability analysis and transition likelihood for the period 2010 − 2020. The resulting maps are used as inputs into the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs) model, which is used to estimate the quantity of three specific FES: carbon storage/sequestration, sediment yield, and water yield. We apply economic valuation methods to value these services: the social cost of carbon is used to estimate the economic values of carbon storage/sequestration; the cost of removing sediment deposited in reservoirs is applied for valuing the reduction of sediment yield, and the residual value of water supply for hydropower generation is used for valuing water yield. The results show that forest governance regimes have a significant effect not only on forest LULC, but also on the quantity and values of FES derived from forests. The FES are differentially affected by alternative forest governance regimes: some FES increase in quantity and value under some governance regimes and decrease under others. Of the three forest governance regimes examined, there is no one regime that will always be ‘better’ than the others in terms of provisioning all considered FES. For the specific context of Vietnam, we find that the private forest governance scenario is inferior to the community-based governance scenario, as an alternative to the current state-based governance. Because our results pertain to the scenarios as constructed, rather than generally to broad categories of governance regimes, there remains the possibility that regimes can be constructed that outperform all of those examined here.     

Integration of stakeholder choices and multi-criteria analysis to support land use planning in semiarid areas

The ecosystem services concept is increasingly considered as a policy tool to achieve the sustainable use of natural resources. However, it is still not sufficiently integrated into land use planning. We assessed five land use types (Tetraclinis articulata woodlands, Pinus halepensis plantations, Shrublands, Cereal-almond crops and Cactus groves) in a semiarid area of northern Morocco using empirical data on 17 ecosystem services whose weights were established by 67 stakeholders. The analysis included MCA and direct ranking of the five land uses. Three groups of stakeholders (scientists and managers, collaborators, and direct users of natural resources) were particularly concerned by water supply, protection against erosion and floods, soil fertility and food provision. Multi-criteria analysis showed that the three groups concurred in that Tetraclinis woodlands, crops and cactus fields were the most suitable land uses for the area, regarding ecosystem service provision. Direct ranking confirmed this tendency but showed some divergence between the three groups, as collaborators and users were more inclined towards crops and cactus. The integration of the ecosystem services concept in land use planning is needed to be more practical and easily perceived as a logical response to environmental exigencies and social aspirations.     

Impact of local payments for ecosystem services on land use in a developed area of China: A qualitative analysis based on an integrated conceptual framework

Payments for ecosystem services (PES) have increasingly been applied as economic incentives for improving ecosystem services around the world. However, due to difficulties in measuring and attributing ecosystem services provisioning, a land-based approach has been popularly adopted as a proxy for the desired ecosystem services. In this study, we demonstrate the impact mechanism and outcomes of locally financed PES programs on conservation-based land use in a developed area of China. We present this work using a PES-land use proxy framework that is examined empirically through a variety of qualitative assessments. Our framework illustrates that, within the ecological, socioeconomic, and institutional conditions of developed areas, land use class, pattern and function would be impacted by (a) conservation effect, (b) stakeholder response, and (c) institutional adaptation mechanisms of local PES programs, with multiple land use trends as potential outcomes. We examine the framework using materials from Suzhou, China, which has implemented a top-down, partly involuntary (ecosystem services supply side), land based PES program. Our results show that, expected land use class, land use pattern and land use function are observed in areas where the PES programs were implemented. We also find that the conditions of developed areas and locally financed payments mechanism indeed played a crucial role in promoting conservation-based land use in Suzhou.     

耕地非农化风险及增值收益分配机制研究——以哈尔滨市为例

研究目的:探寻合理分配耕地非农化增值收益的方法,从耕地非农化风险角度构建增值收益分配机制。研究方法:联盟利益分配机制,模糊综合评价法。研究结果:在耕地非农化中,各权利主体所担风险从高到低依次为农民、中央政府、地方政府、村集体;假设各权利主体参与征地行为是一种投资行为,各权利主体耕地非农化增值收益分配比例为中央政府占26%,地方政府占22%,村集体占17%,农民占35%;运用"联盟利益分配机制"测算耕地非农化各权利主体之间的增值收益分配比例是可行的。研究结论:以缩小征地范围、尊重农民意愿为条件制定征地补偿标准不仅体现补偿公平原则,也符合通过市场机制对农民进行补偿的改革方向。     

Measuring environmental incomes beyond standard national and ecosystem accounting frameworks: testing and comparing the agroforestry Accounting System in a holm oak dehesa case study in Andalusia-Spain

The standard System of National Accounts (SNA) omits the costs of the environmental inputs from nature and the environmental fixed asset degradation from the national/sub-national natural working landscapes. The United Nations Statistic Division (UNSD) is currently drafting the standardization of the Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (EEA), as part of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA). The EEA- aims to mitigate some of the limitations of the SNA by extending the concept of economic activity and explicitly incorporating ecosystem services and environmental assets provided by nature in the estimates of net value added, adjusted according to the costs of the environmental inputs consumed and the environmental fixed asset degradations of ecosystem. However, the NVAad proposed in the ongoing draft of the EEA is inconsistent in that it omits the manufactured costs of the public economic activities of the new government institutional sub-sector of the ecosystem trustee. In addition, the ongoing methodological guidelines of the EEA do not propose to estimate the environmental income. This implies that there is not a single indicator that integrates the ecosystem services obtained and the evolution of the environmental assets in the natural working landscapes in which the private and public activities are valued. The objective of this research is to discuss conceptually and compare the measurements of ecosystem services and environmental incomes in the extended Agroforestry Accounting System (AAS), and in refined versions of the official SNA and the ongoing EEA methodologies, through a case study of privately-owned holm oak dehesas working landscapes in Andalusia-Spain. This comparison shows that the refined SNA and the refined EEA in their current state of development do not allow the complete visualization of the environmental income contribution to the total income of the natural working landscapes. We also discuss the advances provided by the AAS extended accounting methodology that would be relevant for the EEA next improvements.     

Quantifying the multifunctionality of fjord and mountain agriculture by means of sociocultural and economic valuation of ecosystem services

The objective of this study was to define the value of the main market and nonmarket functions of fjord and mountain agroecosystems in Nordic countries by means of the ecosystem services framework. First, we used qualitative methods (interviews of farmers and other stakeholders in the area of study) to identify sociocultural perceptions of multifunctional agriculture. Next, we used survey-based stated-preference methods to rank and value in economic terms the most important functions (corresponding to the four types of ecosystem services) according to the local (residents of the study area) and the general (residents of a nearby area) populations. The sociocultural perceptions of multifunctionality among local stakeholders were similar, but differences in the relative importance of the functions reflected particular interests (agriculture compared with tourism). Both the local and the general populations attached great importance to the production and availability of quality foods. The general population showed very homogeneous preferences among ecosystem services, but local people rated them very differently. Local people ranked a more agricultural landscape very high. The total economic value of fjord and mountain agroecosystem was 850 € per person per year. The willingness to pay for the provision of ecosystem services under a policy scenario of further development of multifunctional agriculture clearly exceeded the current level of public support. The welfare loss that society would experience in a scenario of further abandonment of agriculture was even greater. We discuss the establishment of payments for ecosystem services for addressing the undersupply of nonmarket functions of agriculture.     

Total income and ecosystem service sustainability index: Accounting applications to holm oak dehesa case study in Andalusia-Spain

This research develops the novel concept of an economic ecosystem service sustainability index from the perspective of total income theory, and presents its empirical application at the spatial unit scale of the agroforestry farm. This paper compares the results accrued from applying the refined standard System of National Accounts (rSNA) and the authors’ Agroforestry Accounting System (AAS). The AAS extends the rSNA to capture economic activities without manufactured production costs and substitutes the production cost valuations for exchange values revealed/stated by consumer willingness to pay for consumption of final products without market prices, the aim being to provide more comprehensive figures for total and environmental incomes of the agroforestry farms. Both accounting frameworks are applied to a case study of sixteen large, non-industrial, privately-owned holm oak dehesas (agroforestry farms) in Andalusia-Spain. This dehesa application provides estimates for the economic ecosystem service, total income factorial allocation, total capital and economic ecosystem service sustainability index for the aggregate and individual economic activities of the dehesa, distributed between accounts for the farmer and government institutional sector economic activities. The AAS explicit measurements of the hidden rSNA ecosystem services and environmental incomes of the dehesa allow us to further our scientific understanding of the current and future contributions of environmental income from nature to the total income of society as well as to provide information to the policy makers so that action can be taken to mitigate the depletion and degradation of environmental assets. This dehesa application reveals that environmental income measured by the AAS accounts for 67 % of total income in 2010. The dehesa AAS and rSNA ecosystem services share 34 % and 26 % of total product consumptions, respectively. Coupled with the AAS economic ecosystem service sustainability index of 0.5 and the rSNA economic ecosystem service sustainability index of 0.2, these figures indicate total product over-consumption in 2010. The dehesa case study shows that the AAS ecosystem services and environmental incomes are 2.5 and 8.4 times higher than those of the rSNA, respectively. Once the theoretic robustness of non-market product consumption simulated transaction value is accepted, as in the AAS methodology, the expected official economic ecosystem accounting framework will mainly depend on its ongoing standardization by the United Nations Statistical Division and implementation by individual governments. Thus, the challenge of standardizing and implementing such a framework is more closely linked to governmental policy measures than to the current scientific weakness of non-market product consumption valuations.     

Towards productive landscapes: Trade-offs in tree-cover and income across a matrix of smallholder agricultural land-use systems

One of the main causes of tropical forest loss is conversion to agriculture, which is constantly increasing as a dominant land cover in the tropics. The loss of forests greatly affects biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper assesses the economic return from increasing tree cover in agricultural landscapes in two tropical locations, West Java, Indonesia and eastern Bangladesh. Agroforestry systems are compared with subsistence seasonal food-crop-based agricultural systems. Data were collected through rapid rural appraisal, field observation, focus groups and semi-structured interviews of farm households. The inclusion of agroforestry tree crops in seasonal agriculture improved the systems’ overall economic performance (net present value), even when it reduced understorey crop production. However, seasonal agriculture has higher income per unit of land area used for crop cultivation compared with the tree establishment and development phase of agroforestry farms. Thus, there is a trade-off between short-term loss of agricultural income and longer-term economic gain from planting trees in farmland. For resource-poor farmers to implement this change, institutional support is needed to improve their knowledge and skills with this unfamiliar form of land management, sufficient capital for the initial investment, and an increase in the security of land tenure.     

青海湖流域主要生态系统服务价值驱动分析

通过定量分析生态系统服务价值的变化和气候、GDP、个人储蓄和城市化水平等社会经济驱动因子之间的相关性和敏感性,以识别影响青海湖生态环境的主要影响因素,调控和管理青海湖区域生态保护。研究方法:生态系统服务估值,MATLAB.7.0多元线性回归分析,敏感性分析。研究结果:(1)2000～2008年青海湖流域的湿地和草地生态系统服务价值分别下降11.16%、13.23%,主要是受到GDP和气候暖干化的影响,但对GDP变化并不敏感,对城市化和气温变化极为敏感;(2)2000～2008年青海湖流域农地的生态系统服务下降了57.93%,主要受气候暖干化和城市化的驱动所致,同时对城市化和气温变化极为敏感。研究结论:青海湖流域生态环境恶化是气候变化和经济社会发展的长期综合作用结果,青海湖流域尤其是天峻县的经济发展应该以实施生态保护战略为主导。     

生态系统服务价值估算在土地整理项目效益评价中的应用

生态系统服务价值评价结果可为土地整理规划设计的决策提供科学依据,以便于提高农业生态系统生产力和生产效率,提高土地整理的效益,最终使土地整理达到可持续发展的目标。选取北京市延庆区王木营土地整理项目作为一个典型案例,运用中国学者提出的生态系统服务价值当量因子表,对该区生态系统服务功能经济价值进行了评价,得出土地整理前后的生态价值分别为142.13和156.12万元,增加率为9.84%。同时分析了生态系统服务功能经济价值变化的原因并对结果进行了讨论。     

太仓市区城镇用地扩展合理规模计量研究

研究目的：探讨规划目标年城镇用地合理规模及其测算方法,为经济发展与耕地保护“两难”问题的解决提供依据。研究方法：采用C-D生产函数及成本效益曲线分析城镇用地合理规模条件,进而通过加权最小二乘法估计城镇用地合理规模测算模型,并结合情景分析法测算不同经济发展条件下规划目标年城镇用地合理规模。研究结果：在考虑生态服务价值时,社会经济中速发展下太仓市区2015 年及2020 年城镇用地合理规模分别为4805.61 hm2 和5495.88 hm2 ,此情景较为合理;而高速经济发展下2015 年及2020 年城镇用地合理规模为5133.36 hm2 和6161.38 hm2 ; 如果不考虑生态服务价值,则在中速发展时2015 年及2020 年城镇用地合理规模为5907.38 hm2 和6756.93 hm2。研究结论：通过经济计量模型及情景分析法等可以确定未来一定社会经济发展情景下不同年份的城镇用地合理规模。     

Economic evaluation of ecosystem goods and services under different landscape management scenarios

Human-induced changes in the natural environment are affecting the provision of ecosystem goods and services (EGS). Land use plans rarely include the value of public ecosystem services such as climate regulation and biodiversity due to difficulties in valuing these services. In this study, we assessed total economic value for five important ecosystem goods and services under five future land-use scenarios using varying levels of costs, prices and discount rates. Results indicated that at higher discount rates normally applied to commercial activities, and assuming the current prices for goods and services, net present value (NPV) was highest for landscape management scenarios aimed at maximising agricultural production. Potential income from services such as carbon and biodiversity does not offset projected income lost from agriculture due to land-use changes. At higher discount rates, NPV was negative for the two scenarios aimed at enhancing the longer term ecological sustainability of the landscape. These results indicate that income from carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation would need to be considerably higher than current levels in order to justify focusing management of this landscape on ecological outcomes. At lower discount rates (at levels normally associated with public investments), the more ecologically appropriate ‘mosaic farming system’ had the highest NPV, indicating that this type of system might be attractive for investors interested in longer term return horizons or wider public benefits. Higher income from carbon or biodiversity, or increased return from timber by using high value tree species, could potentially make more ecologically appropriate systems profitable at higher discount rates.     

Mathematical optimisation of drainage and economic land use for target water and salt yields*

Land managers in upper catchments are being asked to make expensive changes in land use, such as by planting trees, to attain environmental service targets, including reduced salt loads in rivers, to meet needs of downstream towns, farms and natural habitats. End‐of‐valley targets for salt loads have sometimes been set without a quantitative model of cause and effect regarding impacts on water yields, economic efficiency or distribution of costs and benefits among stakeholders. This paper presents a method for calculating a ‘menu’ of technically feasible options for changes from current to future mean water yields and salt loads from upstream catchments having local groundwater flow systems, and the land‐use changes to attain each of these options at minimum cost. It sets the economic stage for upstream landholders to negotiate with downstream parties future water‐yield and salt‐load targets, on the basis of what it will cost to supply these ecosystem services.     

A quantitative assessment of policy options for no net loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services in the European Union

The Biodiversity Strategy of the European Union includes a target to “ensure no-net-loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services by 2020”. Many policy options can be envisioned to achieve such a no-net-loss target, mainly acting on land use and land management. To assess the effectiveness of such policies at a European Union (EU) scale, we simulated land use changes and their impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services indicators. We analysed a Business–as-Usual scenario, and three no-net-loss scenarios. The no-net-loss scenarios included measures that aim to reduce negative impacts of land use change on biodiversity and ecosystem services, by better implementation of existing biodiversity conservation measures (Scenario 1); and enhancement of existing measures (Scenario 2); and offsetting residual impacts on areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem service value (Scenario 3).Results show that none of the scenarios achieved overall no-net-loss. Compared to a Business-as-Usual scenario, the no-net-loss scenarios reduced the overall degree of land cover change at EU level, hence reducing impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services in large parts of the EU. The more comprehensive no-net-loss scenarios resulted in a gain of natural land cover. Moreover, natural areas became better connected, especially in peri-urban areas as a result of impact avoidance and offsetting. Richness of farmland bird species was projected to increase. Measures included in the no-net-loss scenarios had net positive effects on pollination and carbon sequestration, neutral effects on crop production, erosion prevention and flood regulation, and negative effects on nature-based recreation, compared to Business-as-Usual. In particular circumstances policy measures invoked displacement effects in land use allocation, reducing the effectiveness of the measures. This was primarily the case for flood regulation services throughout the EU.This study differentiates the potential effectiveness of a no-net-loss policy framework in three manners: (i) considering biodiversity and ecosystem services simultaneously; (ii) in the light of existing policies and land use pressures; and (iii) in different land use contexts across the EU. Taken together, we conclude that achieving no-net-loss for biodiversity and ecosystem services throughout the EU remains challenging given high land use demands. Nevertheless, in large parts of Europe there appears room for improvement for certain kinds of biodiversity and ecosystem services compared to Business-as-Usual, while still meeting other land use demands.     

经济发达区土地利用变化与生态服务价值损益研究——以浙江省慈溪市为例

研究目的:以浙江省慈溪市1999—2005年的土地利用详查及更新调查数据,研究该地区土地利用变化及其所引起的生态系统服务价值的变化。研究方法:土地利用类型动态度法、土地利用程度综合指数法、生态系统服务价值当量计算法。研究结果:研究区1999—2005年园地、林地、建设用地呈增加趋势,耕地基本不变,水利设施用地和未利用地呈减少趋势;土地利用程度指数逐年上升;生态系统服务价值却随当地经济的发展逐渐下降。研究结论:今后的土地利用规划一定要严格控制建设用地扩张,提高用地效率,保证经济稳步增长和生态环境质量不断提高。     

Stakeholder perceptions and governance challenges in urban protected area management: The case of the Las Piñas – Parañaque Critical Habitat and Ecotourism Area,Philippines

The conservation and management of protected areas in urban settings has become increasingly challenging with dynamics over land use change in adjacent urban areas being highly relevant to, but at times conflicting with, the protected area. This study seeks to better understand the implications of land use change processes to urban protected area management through the case study of the Las Piñas – Parañaque Critical Habitat and Ecotourism Area (LPPCHEA) in Metro Manila, Philippines. Factors and processes influencing land use change and protected area management and the impact of stakeholders’ perceptions on protected area were analyzed. The urban protected area in itself has limited influence on its surrounding urban areas, as land use change in these areas is shaped more by social, economic and policy/institutional factors occurring within the context of urban-regional development. The study also found that land use conflict is evident in an urban protected area due to the competing ecosystem services derived by various stakeholders. This discord is deepened by the lack of coordination between land use planning and protected area management. Integrating protected area management with land use planning through legally binding instruments, specific timeframes and clear internal procedures can help resolve land use conflict for an urban protected area at the strategic or policy level.     

Local ecological knowledge reveals effects of policy-driven land use and cover change on beekeepers in Costa Rica

Land use and cover (LUC) change is a major driver of ecosystem service loss worldwide. In response, policymakers have designed conservation strategies that incentivize the establishment and maintenance of LUC types associated with higher ecosystem service provision. Many of these policies also aim to promote social and economic goals such as reducing poverty. Attempts to measure the impact of policy-driven LUC change on stakeholders typically focus only on economic outcomes for landowning participants or aggregate the socio-economic outcomes of diverse groups. In this study, we applied local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by beekeepers in Costa Rica to understand the impact of policy-driven LUC change on this specific group of often non-landowning stakeholders. Beekeeping is a globally important rural livelihood and provides pollination services to crops and wild plants. We synthesized beekeeper LEK using a mixed-methods approach including apiary mapping exercises (n = 215 apiaries), questionnaires (n = 50 participants), and follow-up interviews (n = 21 participants). Our study revealed that some policy-driven LUC changes have limited beekeepers’ access to preferred land uses, such as secondary and mature forests with native trees. Participants reported concern for their livelihoods due to policy-driven spatial and temporal change of floral resources via the establishment of tree plantations, changes in pasture management, and laws that prohibit beekeeping in national parks and reserves. Our study provides evidence of unintended outcomes from land use policies, including Payment for Ecosystem Services, with disproportionate negative impacts on non-landowning residents who depend on natural resources in the landscape for their livelihoods. Our study illustrates potential inequality rising from current incentive mechanisms associated with Payments for Ecosystem Services and other conservation policies and calls for policymakers to consider LUC change impacts on non-landowning stakeholders.     

The incentives of China's urban land finance

Land grant premiums and land tax revenues have become two major sources of fiscal revenue for city governments in China. This type of fiscal revenue strategy for city governments is generally referred to as “land finance”, and it has drawn increasing research attention in recent years. This paper explores the institutional causes of the “land finance” strategy of city governments in China. We first analyze the institutional foundation of “land finance” (including China's urban land use system and land expropriation system). We then propose two hypotheses about the institutional causes of “land finance”. The first hypothesis is that the current system of fiscal decentralization is a major reason city governments choose the “land finance” fiscal strategy. The second hypothesis is that under the current personnel control system, which uses local economic performance as the most important indicator for evaluating local government officials, the competition between city governments to promote local economic growth is another major reason city governments choose the “land finance” fiscal strategy. We test the hypotheses by estimating econometric models using data for 31 provincial-level regions for the period 1999–2008. The empirical results suggest that fiscal decentralization and competition between city governments to promote economic growth are two major causes of “land finance”.     

农村土地流转风险:表现、成因及其形成机理———基于浙江省A乡的分析

土地流转为实现我国农地资源优化配置做出了巨大贡献,但近年来土地流转也逐渐表现出了一些风险。土地流转风险已逐渐成为我国农村地区发展中的现实隐忧与制约瓶颈,在一定程度上阻碍了农村经济的繁荣与社会的稳定。文章借鉴复合生态系统理论的理念,对浙江省A乡土地流转进行研究发现,该乡土地流转风险主要表现为经济风险、社会风险、自然风险,其中经济风险包括契约风险、经营管理风险、粮食安全风险及政策风险;社会风险包括社会矛盾风险、公信力风险、寻租风险及社会保障风险;自然风险包括景观美学价值风险、生态组分风险。土地流转风险的成因包括信息不对称、非理性、道德、制度环境、市场等因素,这些因素聚合为强制性占有、流转外部性、行为偏差、沉没成本等4个因子,辐射至A乡农村土地流转整个系统,进而产生土地流转风险。要控制A乡土地流转的经济风险需要以利益保障为目标,而社会风险的控制要以提升社会效益为根本,自然风险的控制要以合理性评价为依据。