The Relationship between Income,Wealth and Age in Australia

This article analyses the relationship between income, wealth, wealth‐adjusted income and age in Australia using a 2009–10 cross‐sectional data set. The main findings are: (i) wealth and wealth‐adjusted income generally rise with age, while income is constant across the life cycle; (ii) both income inequality and wealth inequality rise until mid‐life and fall thereafter, while wealth‐adjusted income inequality depends on the method of calculation used, one showing a fall in later life and another showing no fall; and (iii) after income, wealth and wealth‐adjusted income inequalities are adjusted for age, underlying inequality is lower in all three cases.     

Wage,income and consumption inequality in Japan, 1981–2008: From boom to lost decades

In this paper we document the main features of the distributions of wages, earnings, consumption and wealth in Japan since the early 1980s using four main data sources: the Basic Survey on Wage Structure (BSWS), the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), the National Survey of Family Income and Expenditure (NSFIE) and the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers (JPSC). We present an empirical analysis of inequality that specifically considers the path from individual wages and earnings, to household earnings, after-tax income, and finally consumption. We find that household earnings inequality rose substantially over this period. This rise is made up of two distinct episodes: from 1981 to 1996 all incomes rose, but they rose faster at higher percentiles; from 1996 to 2008 incomes above the 50th percentile remained flat but they fell at and below the 50th percentile. Inequality in disposable income and in consumption also rose over this period but to a lesser extent, suggesting taxes and transfers as well as insurance channels available to households helped to insulate household consumption from shocks to wages. We find the same pattern in inequality trends when we look over the life cycle of households as we do over time in the economy. Additionally we find that there are notable differences in the inequality trends for wages and hours between men and women over this period.     

中国城镇居民的财产分配

本文利用住户调查数据对 1 995年的中国城镇住户的财产分配状况进行了经验分析 ,包括对财产分配的差距进行了测量 ,影响财产分配的主要因素进行了估计 ,并将中国城镇住户的财产分配进行了国际比较。与大部分市场经济国家相比 ,中国城镇居民之间财产分配的差距并不大。但是中国城镇居民的财产分配差距超过了收入分配差距 ,而且从长期趋势上可能会出现加速扩大的势头。中国城镇居民之间财产分配的不均等并非全是经济市场化过程的结果。一些不均等的原因来自于传统计划经济遗留下来的分配模式。本文还发现 ,在户主一生中财产积累出现了两个高峰值。这是与正统的生命周期理论不同的。本文还表明了财产分配和收入分配之间的较强相关性。     

The Economics of Ageing—What do you Face?

The economics of ageing is the study of economic decision‐making by individuals and government aimed at fostering well‐being in old age. These decisions include preparing for old age and dealing with the risks of old age. The risks are substantial. Using the life‐cycle model, this article considers the risks for well‐being that people face in retirement and the role of government and private insurance in meeting those risks. The perspective of the life‐cycle model is also used to consider the gender gap in wealth on retirement.     

Twenty Years of Rising Inequality in U.S. Lifetime Labour Income Values

In this paper we study the evolution of lifetime labour income inequality by constructing present value life cycle measures that incorporate both earnings and employment risk. We find that, even though lifetime income inequality is 40% less than earnings inequality, the total increase in lifetime income inequality over the past 20 years is the same as earnings inequality. While the total increase is the same, the pathways there differ with earnings inequality experiencing a steady increase and lifetime income inequality increasing in spurts particularly in the latter half of the 1990s. Finally, we find the changes in lifetime income inequality are primarily driven by changes in earnings mobility and changes in the earnings distribution itself, changes in employment risk and the composition of the sample, such as the shift toward attaining more education and the ageing population, do not play a large role.     

VALUING LOST HOME PRODUCTION OF DUAL EARNER COUPLES*

Using a life‐cycle model in which women divide their time between home and market work, we establish a link between retirement wealth and the value of forgone home production. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study to estimate the model's parameters and adjust the growth rate of GDP to reflect reductions in nonmarket output. We find that the value of forgone home production is modest—about 25% of women's measured earnings.     

Age-specific entrepreneurship and PAYG: Public pensions in Germany

We present new empirical evidence on the distribution of earnings, income and wealth among entrepreneurs in Germany. We document that both earnings and income are more concentrated among entrepreneurs than among workers and describe a large-scale overlapping-generations model that replicates the age-earnings profiles of these two household types. As an application, we compute the equilibrium effects of a reform of the German pay-as-you-go pension system in which entrepreneurs must also contribute and receive a pension. We show that in the presence of mobility between workers and entrepreneurs, the expected lifetime utility of all newborn households unanimously declines due to the general equilibrium effects of lower aggregate savings, and welfare losses amount to approximately 0.7% of total consumption. In addition, the integration of self-employed workers into the social security system in Germany does not help to improve its fiscal sustainability, and only an increase in the retirement age to 70 years will help to finance pensions at the present level beyond the year 2050.     

Characterizing life-cycle wealth distributions using statistical inference and dominance criteria

This paper examines how the distribution of household wealth in Canada varies with age over the life cycle. The wealth distribution is characterized in terms of decile means and decile shares for each of six age groups, and comparisons between age-specific distributions are based on first-and second-order stochastic dominance criteria. It is found that (i) mean wealth levels and wealth distributions increase significantly with age in concave quadratic fashion until near-retirement and then decline, and (ii) wealth inequality declines in convex fashion with age, at first steeply and then not significantly. This joint pattern in mean and inequality of wealth holdings across age groups presents a challenge for basic theories to explain.     

A NEW LOOK AT THE WEALTH ADEQUACY OF OLDER U.S. HOUSEHOLDS

We examine the current wealth adequacy of older U.S. households using the 1998–2006 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We find that the median older U.S. household is reasonably well situated, with a ratio of comprehensive net wealth to present value poverty‐line wealth of about 3.9 in 2006. About 18 percent of households, however, have less wealth than would be needed to generate 150 percent of poverty‐line income over their expected future lifetimes. We see similar patterns of wealth adequacy when we examine ratios of annualized comprehensive wealth to pre‐retirement earnings. Comparing the leading edge of the baby boomers in 2006 to households of the same age in 1998, we find that the baby boomers show slightly less wealth, in real terms, than their elders did, but still appear to have adequate resources at the median. Moreover, we find a rising age profile of annualized wealth, even within households over time and after controlling for other factors, suggesting that older households are not spending their wealth as quickly as their survival probabilities are falling.     

Do the Rich Save More in Japan? Evidence Based on two Micro Data Sets for the 2000s

Using two household surveys, this paper investigates whether the saving rates of richer households are higher than those of poorer households in Japan. We construct a number of proxies for lifetime wealth, including those original to this study, and find marginally positive correlations between saving rates and lifetime wealth for working age households. We further find that the relationship between saving rates and lifetime wealth differs depending on the life stage of individual households. Older households with higher lifetime wealth appear to be dissaving to some extent, which is more or less consistent with the lifecycle model of consumption.     

Wealth Inequality and Intergenerational Links

Previous work has had difficulty generating household saving behaviour that makes the distribution of wealth much more concentrated than that of labour earnings, and that makes the richest households hold onto large amounts of wealth, even during very old age. I construct a quantitative, general equilibrium, overlapping-generations model in which parents and children are linked by accidental and voluntary bequests and by earnings ability. I show that voluntary bequests can explain the emergence of large estates, while accidental bequests alone cannot, and that adding earnings persistence within families increases wealth concentration even more. I also show that the introduction of a bequest motive generates lifetime savings profiles more consistent with the data.     

Optimal savings with taxable and tax-deferred accounts

We solve and estimate a life-cycle model with earnings risk and liquidity constraints in the presence of tax-deferred retirement accounts (TDAs). We explicitly consider two very different types of households (with TDAs): direct and indirect stockholders. The latter hold stocks only through TDAs and, consistent with the data, save considerably less than the former, who hold stocks both inside and outside these accounts. We find that TDAs promote higher wealth accumulation but only marginally higher net savings. Consumption increases mostly during retirement, as desired, but the effect is largest for those households with higher savings rates already.     

SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS AS A RETIREMENT RESOURCE FOR U.S. NEAR-RETIREES

This paper analyzes Social Security benefits as a retirement resource (wealth and income) for U.S. near-retirees. We look at how the average values of several measures of benefits such as Social Security wealth and earnings replacement rates have changed from earlier cohorts to today's near-retirement cohort, examine differences among demographic and socioeconomic groups within cohorts, and discuss reasons for these changes and differences. We use improved data (actual earnings history data) to produce more accurate measures of benefits. The paper also uses some new benefit measures. Three key findings are: (1) average real Social Security wealth increases markedly as we move to later cohorts primarily because of increases in average real lifetime earnings; (2) replacement rates fall as we move from the cohorts of persons reaching 61 in 1993–97 to later cohorts primarily because of the phase-in of increases in the age of eligibility for full benefits and the increasing labor market activity of women; and (3) median Social Security wealth is much higher for women than for men because women live longer.     

The trajectory of wealth in retirement

In this paper, we develop a measure of household resources that converts total financial and non-financial assets, plus annuity-like assets (mainly, Social Security and defined-benefit pensions) into an expected annual amount of wealth per person in retirement. We use this measure, which we call “annualized comprehensive wealth,” to investigate spend-down behavior among a panel of older households in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) from 1998 to 2006. Our analysis indicates that for most retired households, comprehensive wealth balances decline much more slowly than their remaining life expectancies, so that the predominate trend is for real annualized wealth to rise significantly with age over the course of retirement. Comparing the estimated age profiles for annualized wealth with profiles simulated from several different life-cycle models, we find that a model that takes into account uncertain longevity, random medical expenses, and intended bequests lines up best with the broad patterns of rising annualized wealth in the HRS.     

Cross-sectional facts for macroeconomists

This article provides an introduction to the special issue of the Review of Economic Dynamics on “Cross-Sectional Facts for Macroeconomists”. The issue documents, for nine countries, the level and the evolution, over time and over the life cycle, of several dimensions of economic inequality, including wages, labor earnings, income, consumption, and wealth. After describing the motivation and the common methodology underlying this empirical project, we discuss selected results, with an emphasis on cross-country comparisons. Most, but not all, countries experienced substantial increases in wages and earnings inequality, over the last three decades. While the trend in the skill premium differed widely across countries, the experience premium rose and the gender premium fell virtually everywhere. At a higher frequency, earnings inequality appears to be strongly counter-cyclical. In all countries, government redistribution through taxes and transfers reduced the level, the trend and the cyclical fluctuations in income inequality. The rise in income inequality was stronger at the bottom of the distribution. Consumption inequality increased less than disposable income inequality, and tracked the latter much more closely at the top than at the bottom of the distribution. Measuring the age-profile of inequality is challenging because of the interplay of time and cohort effects.     

Estimating the marginal propensity to consume using the distributions of income,consumption, and wealth

Studies of economic inequality almost always separately examine income, consumption, and wealth inequality, and hence, miss the important synergy amongst the three measures explicit in the life-cycle budget constraint. These joint distributions, however, are important in evaluating macroeconomic impacts of changes in income because the response may differ across the wealth distribution. This heterogeneity in the response to income changes can have significant impact on the effectiveness of government fiscal policy. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1999–2013, we examine how the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) differs across the wealth distribution. We find that the MPC is lower at higher wealth quintiles, indicating that low wealth households cannot smooth consumption as much as other households. This implies that increasing wealth inequality likely reduces aggregate consumption, which, in turn, could limit economic growth.     

INEQUALITY,INCOMPLETE CONTRACTS,AND THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF BUSINESS FIRMS*

This article analyzes the effects of intrafirm bargaining on the formation of firms in an economy with imperfect capital markets and contracting constraints. In equilibrium, wealth inequality induces a heterogeneous distribution of firm sizes, allowing for firms both too small and too large in terms of technical efficiency. The findings connect well to empirical facts such as the missing middle of firm‐size distributions in developing countries. The model can encompass a nonmonotonic relationship between aggregate output and inequality. It turns out that an inflow of capital may indeed decrease output in absolute terms.     

PRICE SEARCH,CONSUMPTION INEQUALITY AND EXPENDITURE INEQUALITY OVER THE LIFE ‐CYCLE

We differentiate consumption from expenditure by incorporating price search decision into an otherwise standard life‐cycle model. We first analytically show that, under very general conditions, poorer households search more and pay lower prices compared to wealthier ones. As a result, consumption inequality is smaller than expenditure inequality, and the gap between them increases over the life‐cycle. Next, using a plausibly calibrated model, we find that life‐cycle increase in consumption inequality is about 30% lower than the increase in expenditure inequality. Price search provides an insurance mechanism against income shocks and increases the welfare of a newborn by 3.9%.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN URBAN CHINA AND IN CHINA AS A WHOLE IN 1995

The composition, inequality and determinants of wealth among households in urban China in 1995 are studied. In addition, we compare the wealth distribution in urban China with the wealth distribution in rural China and present the first estimates of inequality in the distribution of household wealth in China as a whole. The results show that housing wealth makes up a large part of net worth in urban China. Most urban Chinese households keep a bank account; debts are unusual. A household's net worth is strongly related to its income and location. Net worth is more unequally distributed among urban households than among rural households. However, compared to the situation in most industrialized countries, net worth in urban China and in China as a whole appear to be rather equally distributed.     

Sources of earnings inequality: Estimates from an on-the-job search model of the US labor market

Since the early 1980s the labor market in the United States has seen a substantial increase in earnings dispersion. We study the issue by developing an on-the-job search model of the US labor market that allows for wage and employment mobility as a result of optimal individual behavior. We estimate its structural parameters on PSID data at different points in time to clarify the sources of the evolution of earnings inequality and instability between 1987 and 1996. This procedure allows to: compute lifetime measure of inequality on top of the usual cross-sectional measure of inequality and provide counterfactual experiments that evaluate the contribution of different parameters to changes over time by taking into account some equilibrium effects. We find that the increase in lifetime inequality and in cross-sectional inequality have been generated by different sources and that these sources are different by skills: changes in the wage offer distribution are the main determinant of the increase in inequality for skilled workers while both mobility changes and wage offer distribution changes are needed to explain changes for the unskilled.