东亚国家(地区)的债券市场发展研究

东亚地区虽然拥有非常高的储蓄率和大量的外汇储备,却主要投向西方发达国家金融市场。东亚地区经济发展却过度依赖银行与外部融资,导致区域内的货币与期限双重错配。如果能在东亚地区建立一个区域性的债券市场,将东亚地区的巨额储蓄转化为区域内生产性投资,就可以扭转东亚各经济体对美元资产和银行金融机构的过度依赖性,提高危机应对能力。然而,东亚各经济体债券市场的法规与制度、债券资信评级、会计和风险审核标准以及交易、清算和结算系统等市场基础设施均存在明显的差异,债券市场发展水平参差不齐。要建立一个高效的东亚区域债券市场,推动本区域经济稳定发展与金融一体化,东亚区域各经济体债券市场间协调合作是必由之路。文章以东亚债券市场协调发展为主线,阐述了东亚债券市场的现状和发展东亚债券市场的意义,分析了东亚债券市场发展现状的原因。最后根据东亚金融市场的特点给出了东亚债券市场以及中国债券市场发展的具体措施。     

下半年债券市场投资策略

交易所债券市场经过2003年4月初的调整后,于4月中旬起持续上涨,特别是5月12日以来涨幅较大。我们认为,未来几个月交易所债券市场将经历调整,待市场收益率上升之后继续温和上涨。 债券市场突破性发展 最近中国参加亚洲债券基金表明,积极发展债券市场是包括中国在内新兴市场经济国家的共同政策。亚洲债券基金是由东亚及太平洋地区中央银行行长会议组织各经济体从其官方储备中出资建立的一个共同基金,它将投资于成员国(除日本、澳大利亚和新     

债券市场中的投资者保护

投资者是债券市场的一个重要主体。如果没有投资者的参与,债券市场就无从形成和运转。因此,保障广大投资者的利益是至关重要的。近几年,我国的债券市场虽然发展迅速,但债券总量只占GDP的24%,相比较国际上95%的比例,所占比重还很小。与国外成熟市场相比,我国债市无论是市场规模、债券品种,还是市场发育程度,都存在着相当大的差距,主要是不能对投资者进行有效的保护。具体表现为:一、市场规模过小,品种过少,债券流动性差,市场参与者单一中国债券市场的债券种类不多、品种不丰富,尤其是公司债券的发展严重滞后。在国外,既有国家信用等级的优…     

积极推进政府债券衍生品市场的发展

本文对我国政府债券市场的宏观环境、发行市场、二级市场和衍生品市场四个方面存在的问题进行了综合分析,在借鉴国外成熟市场经验基础上,从优化政府债券市场的宏观环境、充实完善政府债券的发行市场、积极推进政府债券二级市场的发展、积极推进政府债券衍生品市场的发展四个角度,提出了课题组的政策建议主张,以期促进中国政府债券市场的健康发展。     

目前中国政府债券市场存在的主要问题

本文对我国政府债券市场的宏观环境、发行市场、二级市场和衍生品市场四个方面存在的问题进行了综合分析,在借鉴国外成熟市场经验基础上,从优化政府债券市场的宏观环境、充实完善政府债券的发行市场、积极推进政府债券二级市场的发展、积极推进政府债券衍生品市场的发展四个角度,提出了课题组的政策建议主张,以期促进中国政府债券市场的健康发展。     

优化政府债券市场的宏观环境

本文对我国政府债券市场的宏观环境、发行市场、二级市场和衍生品市场四个方面存在的问题进行了综合分析,在借鉴国外成熟市场经验基础上,从优化政府债券市场的宏观环境、充实完善政府债券的发行市场、积极推进政府债券二级市场的发展、积极推进政府债券衍生品市场的发展四个角度,提出了课题组的政策建议主张,以期促进中国政府债券市场的健康发展。     

积极推进政府债券二级市场的发展

本文对我国政府债券市场的宏观环境、发行市场、二级市场和衍生品市场四个方面存在的问题进行了综合分析,在借鉴国外成熟市场经验基础上,从优化政府债券市场的宏观环境、充实完善政府债券的发行市场、积极推进政府债券二级市场的发展、积极推进政府债券衍生品市场的发展四个角度,提出了课题组的政策建议主张,以期促进中国政府债券市场的健康发展。     

充实、完善政府债券的发行市场

本文对我国政府债券市场的宏观环境、发行市场、二级市场和衍生品市场四个方面存在的问题进行了综合分析,在借鉴国外成熟市场经验基础上,从优化政府债券市场的宏观环境、充实完善政府债券的发行市场、积极推进政府债券二级市场的发展、积极推进政府债券衍生品市场的发展四个角度,提出了课题组的政策建议主张,以期促进中国政府债券市场的健康发展。     

我国债券市场结构分析

“十二五”报告指出，要增加直接融资比重尤其是债券融资。当前我国债券市场发展相对于成熟资本市场而言较为落后，预计今后债券市场将会快速发展。本文主要分析了我国债券市场的成交量结构、存量结构、发行量结构三个方面的特点。     

我国债券市场结构分析

“十二五”报告指出,要增加直接融资比重尤其是债券融资.当前我国债券市场发展相对于成熟资本市场而言较为落后,预计今后债券市场将会快速发展.本文主要分析了我国债券市场的成交量结构、存量结构,发行量结构三个方面的特点.     

Regional Integration in East Asia: Achievements and Future Prospects

Economic integration in East Asia has been largely market driven. Attempts in the late 1980s to establish an East Asian regional economic grouping failed to materialize for a number of reasons. The financial crisis in 1997–1998 has strengthened the realization of regional countries that they need to have some self‐help mechanisms to overcome that crisis and to prevent future crises. This led to the development of several functional integration programs, including the network of bilateral swap arrangements known as the Chiang Mai Initiative. However, progress remains slow. The question that has arisen is how far these efforts need to be supported by institutional integration. Should the ASEAN Plus Three, the main regional cooperation process in East Asia involving the 10 South‐East Asian countries plus China, Japan, and South Korea, be deepened institutionally? Meanwhile, the region has seen the establishment of a new process, the East Asia Summit, involving the above 13 countries plus Australia, India, and New Zealand. How will these different arrangements contribute to East Asia's economic dynamism and prosperity as well as peace and political stability?     

State Development Planning: Did it Create an East Asian Miracle?

East Asian countries have recorded large increases in per capita GDP over the last fifty years. Some observers have referred to this growth as an “East Asian Miracle.” One popular explanation attributes the rapid growth to state led industrial development planning. This paper critically assesses the arguments surrounding state development planning and East Asia’s growth. Whether the state can acquire the knowledge necessary to calculate which industries it should promote and how state development planning can deal with political incentive problems faced by planners are both examined. When we look at the development record of East Asian countries we find that to the extent development planning did exist, it could not calculate which industries would promote development, so it instead promoted industrialization. We also find that what rapid growth in living standards did occur can be better explained by free markets than state planning because, as measured in economic freedom indexes, these countries were some of the most free market in the world.JEL classification: O200, O170, O530, B530, P170     

Dynamic correlation and equicorrelation analysis of global financial turmoil: evidence from emerging East Asian stock markets

This study investigates the dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) between eight emerging East Asian stock markets and the US stock market and analyses the dynamic equicorrelation among these nine stock markets. We find a significant increase in the conditional correlations and equicorrelation in the first phase of the global financial crisis. We refer to this finding as contagion from the US stock market to the emerging East Asian markets. We also find an additional significant process of increasing correlations and equicorrelation (herding) in the second phase of the global financial crisis. Further, we employ two new models, namely DCCX-MGARCH (a DCC Multivariate GARCH model with exogenous variables) and DECOX-MGARCH (a dynamic equicorrelation multivariate GARCH model with exogenous variables), to identify the channels of contagion. We find that an increase in the VIX Index increases the conditional correlations and equicorrelation, while increases in TED spreads decrease the conditional correlations of six emerging East Asian countries with the USA. We compare the accuracy of the conditional correlation estimates of the DCC and DCCX models (or DECO and DECOX models) by constructing a loss function. We find that the DCCX (DECOX) model provides more accurate conditional correlation estimates than the DCC (DECO) model by extracting additional information from exogenous variables.     

P2P网络借贷市场对资本市场的风险溢出效应

构建Copula-GARCH模型,并利用2013—2016年中国P2P网络借贷市场、股票市场和债券市场的日收益率数据,实证研究了P2P网络借贷市场对资本市场的风险溢出效应。结果显示:P2P网络借贷市场与股票市场之间存在"跷跷板"效应,与债券市场之间呈现出较弱的联动效应;P2P网络借贷市场与股票市场和债券市场的上、下尾部相关性均很弱,风险溢出效应不显著。结论表明:在确保金融系统稳定的同时,中国可以适度发展P2P网络借贷行业。     

International restructuring,health and the advanced industrial state

For the better part of the last century, the debate between ‘liberalisers’ and ‘interventionists’ marked thinking about the relationship between finance and development. It has by now been superseded by the emergence of the discourse of financial system development, which links economic growth to the development of the financial sector. As the risks entailed by wholesale financial reform came to the fore in the financial crises of the 1990s and early 2000s, emphasis shifted from liberalising financial markets to building institutional frameworks to accommodate investment. Arguably, the emergence of the financial-system-development discourse occurred within a wider shift in the neoliberal paradigm towards institution building. These changes are particularly pronounced in East and Southeast Asia. This paper argues that a convergence of opinions has occurred between Asian financial policy elites, previously strong supporters of the bank-based developmental state model, and the liberalisers, represented through international financial institutions such as the IMF. This consensus is geared towards the expansion of capital markets and a generally more neoliberal, market-oriented mode of economic governance. To illustrate this claim, this paper traces institutional changes in Asian financial systems since the 1997-98 financial crisis. Although local characteristics remain, a common feature is the more salient role of bond markets in the financial system. This is the result of the conscious and deliberate development of local currency debt markets by policymakers. However, the new consensus narrows down the space in which economic policymaking takes place. Yet, by re-politicising financial system development, this space could be broadened again.     

The impact of Chinese monetary policy on co-movements between money and capital markets

From 2010 to 2017, with interest rate liberalization and capital market development in China, the impact of monetary policies on China’s financial markets underwent continuous evolution. Using the DCC-GARCH model, this study investigates the transmission process of monetary policies from the money market to capital markets (stock and bond markets). The results show that in the early stage the instability of the money and stock markets and the downturn in the bond market are primarily caused by the block of monetary policy transmission and the paucity of fund sources in the capital markets. Subsequently, the outbreak of the 2013 money shortage and the 2015 stock market crash are also closely related to monetary policies. In the later periods, the money and stock markets maintain a low degree of correlation for a long time, reducing the impact of destabilizing factors on the stock market. By contrast, with the advancement of interest rate reform and the optimization of bond market structure, the bond market is highly relevant to the money market. The central bank regulates the bond market more effectively using both traditional and innovative monetary policy tools.     

债券市场与经济发展的相关性分析——以我国银行间债券市场为例

债券市场是资本市场的重要组成部分，但目前我国资本市场发展阶段的特征表现为债券市场发展缓慢，为了扩大我国直接融资规模并完善多层次资本市场体系，需要大力发展债券市场。本文以我国债券市场的主体---银行间债券市场为例，分析了我国银行间债券市场的现状以及对国民经济发展的作用，并以1993-2012年我国国民生产总值、银行间债券市场债券发行额和股市筹资额共20年时间的时间序列数据为样本建立相关性模型，通过回归模型进一步实证研究了银行间债券市场与经济发展的相关性，发现银行间债券市场债券发行额与国民生产总值呈显著的正相关关系，表明银行间债券市场是经济发展的重要推动力，该市场规模的扩大有助于推动经济增长，从而说明了我国银行间债券市场创新的必要性。     

The source of global stock market risk: A viewpoint of economic policy uncertainty

This study explores the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in four countries or regions (China, Japan, Europe, and the United States) on the contagion risk of investments in the global stock market. The stock returns of 22 stock markets worldwide are analyzed to determine which region’s EPU exhibits the greatest effect on regional systematic risk in the global stock market and on volatility risk in individual stock markets. First, all of the samples, the markets of different continents and the spillover indices of the developed and emerging markets, are calculated to observe the dynamic correlation among these markets with the aim of quantifying regional systematic risk and further examining the contagion risk effect of EPU. The results indicate the following: EPU in China is the most influential, and its contagion risk spreads to different regional markets, except for Europe; the effect of EPU in the United States is inferior to that in China; EPU in Japan merely influences contagion risk in emerging markets; contagion risk in European markets is not influenced by the four EPU indices; and EPU in Europe is not influenced by contagion risk in the global stock market. However, according to the volatility risk in each market, the EPU in Europe and China respectively influence Asian countries and European countries the most. These results may be attributable to the extremely high trade dependence among these countries because the performance of international enterprises is mainly determined by the economic policies of their trading partners.     

Can a comparative capitalism approach explain fiscal policy activism?

This study investigates the implications of models of capitalism for the responsiveness of countries’ fiscal policies during business cycles using new data for member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and China. We expand the literature by adding the category of East Asian nonliberal capitalism to the established distinction of liberal market economies and nonliberal coordinated market economies. These three differ substantially not just in their fiscal policies, but also in monetary policies, degree of financial market orientation, exchange rate regime, and labor market organization. As in previous studies, we find that governments of liberal economies adopt more countercyclical fiscal policies. Departing from existing studies, however, among the nonliberal models of capitalism, (East Asian) state-led models have more countercyclical fiscal policies than (European) coordinated market economies, perhaps as countercyclical as liberal economies, both historically and during the 2007–9 crisis. This is due to less independent central banks, managed float of exchange rates, and limited financial market orientation and financial openness in East Asia, which allow for more active fiscal policy. Among political factors, left-of-center governments, fractionalized party systems, and election years are associated weakly with countercyclical fiscal policy, as expected. Labor market coordination and welfare generosity have unclear roles in regard to fiscal policy, a topic for future research.     

我国银行间债券市场产品创新分析

文章通过对中国和美国债券品种的对比,认为美国债券市场的产品创新主要有两类:一是在期限、利率、利息支付、面值及持有期等债券构成要素上直接创新的产品;二是利用金融工程技术设计出来的债权衍生产品。而我国债券市场由于基础产品不健全、体制不顺及市场分割等原因导致无法进一步进行债券类衍生产品的创新。多层次资本市场的建立需要债券市场更多金融创新支持,而债券市场产品创新演进的过程应该首先是满足市场不断加深的需求,其次是逐步使用现代金融工程技术。文章认为债券市场创新的根本途径有两条:一是大力发展公司债券市场,这是持续进行产品创新的基础;二是发展与股权挂钩的债券创新产品,包括可转化债券、附认股权证的可分离交易债券和可交换债券等。并进一步提出了我国银行间债券市场还应从债券品种、利率、期限等几个方面进行品种创新,进而提高市场交易效率和流动性。