THE EFFECTS OF THE ANNOUNCEMENTS OF DIVIDEND INCREASES ON STOCK RETURN VOLATILITY: THE EVIDENCE FROM THE OPTIONS MARKET

This paper examines the impact of the announcements of dividend increases on the volatility of underlying stock returns implied by option prices, and analyses whether the impact is related to the label associated with the dividend increase. The results suggest that the announcements of labelled dividend increases are accompanied by a decrease in implied volatility, while the announcements of unlabelled increases in dividends are associated with no change in implied volatility. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that signal implicit in the announcements of dividend increases provides noisy information about the firm's volatility.     

Dividends, Asymmetric Information, and Agency Conflicts: Evidence from a Comparison of the Dividend Policies of Japanese and U.S. Firms

We compare dividend policies of U.S. and Japanese firms, partitioning the Japanese data into keiretsu, independent, and hybrid firms. We examine the correlation between dividend changes and stock returns, and the reluctance to change dividends. Results are consistent with the joint hypotheses that Japanese firms, particularly keiretsu-member firms, face less information asymmetry and fewer agency conflicts than U.S. firms, and that information asymmetries and/or agency conflicts affect dividend policy. Japanese firms experience smaller stock price reactions to dividend omissions and initiations, they are less reluctant to omit and cut dividends, and their dividends are more responsive to earnings changes.     

Does the Pricing of Financial Reporting Quality Change Around Dividend Changes?

We examine whether accrual earnings quality is a priced information risk factor in a dividend change setting. We define information risk as the probability that firm‐specific financial statement information pertinent to investor pricing decisions is of low precision, and use the factor‐mimicking portfolio returns formed on the Dechow‐Dichev [2002] accrual quality (AQ) metric to proxy for the information risk (IR) factor returns. We augment the Fama‐French three‐factor model with this IR factor, and find that dividend initiation and increase firms exhibit a decrease in the factor loadings on the IR factor while dividend decrease firms exhibit an increase in the corresponding factor loadings, but such changes in the factor loadings occur months prior to the dividend change announcements. The results are robust to further controls for operating risk and using an alternative measure of information risk. Further analysis on changes in information characteristics such as AQ, the probability of informed trading score (PIN), forecast dispersion, and return volatility surrounding dividend change events are consistent with the asset pricing results. Overall, we interpret our results as being consistent with investors treating the information risk associated with the precision of financial statement information as a priced risk factor, with both the precision and pricing changing in predictable directions around dividend changes. However, while we attempt to control for operating risk changes in additional tests, we cannot completely rule out changes in operating risk as a competing alternative explanation for our observed results.     

Informed Options Trading Prior to Dividend Change Announcements

This paper investigates the information content of options trading prior to dividend change announcements. I find a positive (negative) relation between pre‐announcement abnormal implied volatility (IV) spread (abnormal IV skew) and cumulative abnormal stock returns around dividend change announcements. The predictive power of informed options trading is stronger for announcements of dividend reduction and when the options market is more liquid relative to the stock market and weaker when information has already been incorporated in the stock market. The predictability of informed options trading is robust to a placebo test and alternative measures of informed options trading. Overall results suggest that informed options trading predicts dividend change announcement returns.     

Are all dividends created equal? Australian evidence using dividend‐increase track records

Recent research indicates that the signal sent by a dividend change is more powerful for longer histories of unchanged dividends. We study the dividend history of Australian firms to investigate whether the signalling power of a dividend increase varies with the frequency of repetition. We find that the first three consecutive dividend increases are associated with significantly positive abnormal returns, and subsequent increases are generally not significant, even after controlling for the interaction effect with the simultaneously announced earnings information. Our results support the hypothesis that repeating a dividend increase eventually leads to a reputation for further increases and weakens the value of subsequent increases as a means of disseminating management's private information.     

The Role of Payout Ratio in the Relationship Between Stock Returns and Dividend Yield

Abstract:   This paper examines the relationship between returns and dividend yield in the UK stock market, and introduces earnings‐related data to the asset pricing model in the form of payout ratio. The latter has a considerable effect upon the inferences which would otherwise be drawn from a study of the dividend yield‐returns relationship in the absence of such earnings information. Payout ratio conveys additional signalling information and is an important adjunct to dividend yield in explaining returns.     

Signaling, investment opportunities, and dividend announcements

This article examines potential explanations for the wealtheffects surrounding dividend change announcements. We find thatnew information concerning managers' investment policies isnot revealed at the time of the dividend announcement. We alsofind that dividend increases (decreases) are associated withsubsequent significant increases (decreases) in capital expendituresover the three years following the dividend change, and thatdividend change announcements are associated with revisionsin analysts' forecasts of current earnings. These results areconsistent with the cash flow signaling hypothesis rather thanthe free cash flow hypothesis as an explanation for the observedstock price reactions to dividend change announcements.     

The information content of cash dividend announcements in a unique environment

Due to its distinctive institutional background, Oman offers a valuable opportunity to examine stock price reactions to dividend announcements. In Oman, (1) there are no taxes on dividends and capital gains, (2) there is a high concentration of share ownership, (3) there is low corporate transparency, and (4) firms frequently change their dividends. Our results show that announcements of dividend increases are associated with increased stock prices, while announcements of dividend decreases cause decreases in stock prices. Firms that do not change their dividends experience insignificant negative returns. These results contradict tax-based signaling models, which argue that higher taxes on dividends relative to capital gains are a necessary condition for dividends to be informative.     

Time Variation of Ex-Dividend Day Stock Returns and Corporate Dividend Capture: A Reexamination

This paper documents some empirical facts about ex-day abnormal returns to high dividend yield stocks that are potentially subject to corporate dividend capture. We find that average abnormal ex-dividend day returns are uniformly negative in each year after the introduction of negotiated commission rates and that time variation in ex-day returns during the negotiated commission rates era is consistent with corporate tax-based dividend capture. Ex-day returns are more negative when the tax advantage to corporate dividend capture is greatest and more positive when increases in transaction costs and risk reduce incentives to engage in corporate tax-based dividend capture.     

Dividend Stability, Dividend Yield and Stock Returns: UK Evidence

This paper establishes an empirical role for two measures of dividend stability (as a proxy for dividend policy) in explaining UK stock returns. There is little systematic empirical evidence concerning the relation between dividend stability, dividend yield and stock returns despite the fact that a variety of theoretical models point to dividend policy as an important stock attribute. Here we construct two definitions of dividend stability, one of which involves dividend cuts, and use a sample of all listed UK firms from 1975 to 1997 to explore the relationship between stock returns and a variety of characteristics, including dividend stability. We find an inverse correlation between the stability of past dividend policy and systematic risk. Both stability measures have explanatory power over returns, but this is concentrated in January.     

Dividend Stability, Dividend Yield and Stock Returns: UK Evidence

This paper establishes an empirical role for two measures of dividend stability (as a proxy for dividend policy) in explaining UK stock returns. There is little systematic empirical evidence concerning the relation between dividend stability, dividend yield and stock returns despite the fact that a variety of theoretical models point to dividend policy as an important stock attribute. Here we construct two definitions of dividend stability, one of which involves dividend cuts, and use a sample of all listed UK firms from 1975 to 1997 to explore the relationship between stock returns and a variety of characteristics, including dividend stability. We find an inverse correlation between the stability of past dividend policy and systematic risk. Both stability measures have explanatory power over returns, but this is concentrated in January.     

Regulatory Monitoring and the Impact of Bank Holding Company Dividend Changes on Equity Returns

This paper examines the impact of announcements of dividend changes by bank holding companies (BHCs) on equity returns. Many empirical studies of dividend behavior reveal positive market responses to dividend increases, which have been interpreted as confirmation of the signalling theory of dividend behavior. These studies typically focus on “large” changes, however. We argue that BHCs allow for a stronger test of signalling theory because regulatory monitors, in effect, “certify” dividend signals. Consequently, even “small” dividend increases should result in positive abnormal equity returns. Using the event study methodology, our results generally confirm this hypothesis for a sample covering the period 1973–1987.     

THE EFFECT OF INSTITUTIONAL INTEREST ON THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF DIVIDEND-CHANGE ANNOUNCEMENTS

We test the hypothesis that the information content of dividend-change announcements, as reflected in stock prices, is directly related to the degree of pre-announcement information asymmetry in the stock. The dividend-change announcements include initiations, large increases, large decreases, and omissions. Information asymmetry is proxied by the proportion of stock held by institutions. Consistent with the hypothesis, we document a significantly positive relation between the absolute values of the announcement-period excess returns and the degree of pre-announcement information asymmetry in the stock. This finding appears to hold for all types of dividend changes except dividend omissions.     

Signaling safety

Contrary to signaling models’ central predictions, changes in the level of cash flows do not empirically follow changes in dividends. We use the Campbell (1991) decomposition to construct cash-flow and discount-rate news from returns and find the following: (1) both dividend changes and repurchase announcements signal changes in cash-flow volatility (in opposite directions); (2) larger cash-flow volatility changes come with larger announcement returns; and (3) neither discount-rate news, nor the level of cash-flow news, nor total stock return volatility change following dividend changes. We conclude cash-flow news—and not discount-rate news—drive payout policy, and payout policy conveys information about future cash-flow volatility.     

Dividend Consistency: Rewards,Learning, and Expectations

The fact that many companies have a long track record of consistent dividend increases suggests that managers believe there is some benefit to establishing and maintaining such a pattern. Many companies, for example, follow a perennial policy of increasing the dividend in a particular quarter, maintaining it at the same level for the next three quarters, and then increasing it in the same quarter of the following year. But does the capital market reward companies for maintaining a consistent dividend policy? Do companies with a history of repeated dividend increases earn long‐term positive abnormal returns; and if so, how long do the returns persist? The authors find that companies earned significantly positive abnormal returns following each of the first five annual dividend increases, over and above the positive announcement‐month returns. Nevertheless, the reward decreases as the track record of dividend increases becomes longer. After the first dividend increase, companies enjoy significantly positive returns for the next two years. Companies that increase the dividend in the same quarter of the following year also enjoy significant positive returns, but returns that are smaller (and less statistically significant) than in the case of first‐time dividend increases. And as the dividend‐increase track record further lengthens, the size and statistical significance of the abnormal returns continues to shrink; and after the sixth dividend increase, the abnormal returns in the next twelve months are statistically indistinguishable from zero. In sum, although there is some support for maintaining a consistent dividend policy, the market response diminishes over time, and investors do not earn abnormal returns by buying stocks whose annual dividend has already been increased six or more times.     

The abnormal return associated with consecutive dividend increases

Several studies conclude that dividend changes that are seemingly predictable on a calendar basis attract abnormal returns. We study the abnormal returns associated with consecutive dividend increases to understand this puzzle. We use regression techniques to study the relation between the number of consecutive dividend increases and the abnormal return associated with the events. Further, we study whether this relation is sensitive to firm characteristics by partitioning the regressions by the characteristics that influence the abnormal return. Our results show that the abnormal returns associated with consecutive dividend increases decline at a diminishing rate and they do not disappear, consistent with the puzzle. In addition, the decline in returns is slowest among firms that are unprofitable, small, or have high payouts. These findings suggest that the abnormal returns persist because firms that are not expected to continue a dividend-increase streak based on their characteristics do so, surprising the market and perpetuating the abnormal return.     

DIVIDEND CHANGE ANNOUNCEMENT EFFECTS AND EARNINGS VOLATILITY AND TIMING

Recent modeling using the asymmetric information framework suggests that the magnitude of a market response to dividend change announcements should be related to the timing of the dividend announcement vis-a-vis the earnings release and to the stability of those earnings. The announcement effects of regular quarterly dividend changes are tested and these effects are related to the percentage change in the dividend yield, to the stability of the firm's earnings, to the timing of dividend and earnings announcements, and to the level of earnings compared with prior quarters. Analysis indicates that significant relationships exist between the announcement effect and changes in the dividend yield, and whether the dividend change is positive or negative. Only weak evidence exists that dividend announcement effects are larger when current earnings are unknown.     

The effects of dividend yield and dividend policy on common stock prices and returns

This paper suggests that it is not possible to demonstrate, using the best available empirical methods, that the expected returns on high yield common stocks differ from the expected returns on low yield common stocks either before or after taxes. A taxable investor who concentrates his portfolio in low yield securities cannot tell from the data whether he is increasing or decreasing his expected after-tax return by so doing. A tax exempt investor who concentrates his portfolio in high yield securities cannot tell from the data whether he is increasing or decreasing his expected return. We argue that the best method for testing the effects of dividend policy on stock prices is to test the effects of dividend yield on stock returns. Thus the fact that we cannot tell, using the best available methods, what effects dividend yield has on stock returns implies that we cannot tell what effect, if any, a change in dividend policy will have on a corporation's stock price.     

Stock Price Adjustment to the Information in Dividend Changes

This paper examines abnormal stock returns in the three years surrounding relatively large changes in dividends announced during the 1971 to 1990 period. The main results are that statistically and economically significant negative post-announcement abnormal returns of 11% and 17% over the post-announcement year are found for firms which decrease dividends and those which omit their dividends. Firms resuming and firms increasing dividends do not exhibit significant abnormal returns, on average, over the post-announcement year. The pattern of lagged price adjustment to negative dividend change information differs from that reported for 'earnings surprise' firms in important respects. While the dividend change firms do exhibit returns behavior consistent with year-to-year returns momentum, differences in prior year returns do not explain the differences in returns over the post-announcement period.     

Dividends,Corporate Monitors and Agency Costs

We report new evidence on the hypothesis that dividends reduce agency costs. Consistent with dividends as a mechanism to reduce agency costs, we find that, on average, firms with a majority of strict outside directors on their boards experience significantly lower mean abnormal returns around the announcements of sizeable dividend increases. Our results are robust to multivariate controls for firm size, leverage, ownership, growth options, and change in dividend yield. However, we find no evidence that dividend increases reduce agency costs as measured by poison pills or outside blockholdings.