基于社会感知分析的新兴技术发展趋势研究

如何尽早捕捉有颠覆性潜力的新兴技术发展趋势,对企业研发投资决策和政府研发战略决策具有重要参考价值。针对论文文献和专利数据研究新兴技术发展趋势的局限性,提出基于社会感知分析的新兴技术发展趋势研究模型。首先,利用基于关键词语义关联与语义主题分析的数据挖掘方法对新兴技术感知信息进行有效萃取和分析;其次,通过对新兴技术社会感知的可视化与知识发现,分析新兴技术发展趋势;最后,以钙钛矿太阳能电池技术为案例进行研究,验证社会感知分析在揭示新兴技术发展趋势方面的可行性和有效性,为新兴技术发展趋势研究提供新视角。     

Multi-path mapping for alignment strategies in emerging science and technologies

Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&T). Forecasts of the likely future development of S&T are generated; then research and development (R&D) efforts necessary to realize various goals are backcast. But for new and emerging S&T this trusted principle does not work: the likely products are not articulated yet. A promising approach however is building mapping tools based on underlying patterns and indicators of the dynamics of emergence. This paper discusses, based on a first round application in the field of micro and nanotechnologies for single cell analysis, the methodology of such a new approach. The work is linked to a programme of Future oriented Technology Assessment (FTA) activities coordinated within a European nanotechnology research network.

Our paper addresses well-known lacunae of alignment tools from the viewpoints of the path creation/dependency literatures. We then apply these insights to lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis. Dynamics of emerging paths can be used to articulate a future structured in terms of prospective innovation chains and potential paradigms. We demonstrate a plausible variety of paths, which provides a broader set of strategic choices. This enables management of expectations and hype by which emerging S&T are characterised, and leads to alignment of actors. Our tool can be applied in strategic management of research and R&D at the level of science-to-industry networks. These are becoming an important element in European S&T policy but will only be successful if ways are found for closing gaps in the innovation chain.     

Vacant technology forecasting using new Bayesian patent clustering

Vacant technology forecasting (VTF) is a technology forecasting approach to find technological needs for given industrial field in the future. It is important to know the future trend of developing technology for the R&D planning of a company and a country. In this paper, we propose a new Bayesian model for patent clustering. This is a VTF methodology based on patent data analysis. Our method is composed of Bayesian learning and ensemble method to construct the VTF model. To illustrate the practical way of the proposed methodology, we perform a case study of given technology domain using retrieved patent documents from patent databases in the world.     

The future of food production – a text-mining approach

ABSTRACT

The system of food production is facing grand challenges, such as a rising population, climate change, degrading bio-productivity of agricultural land and over-fishing. Agriculture and food production are becoming more innovative and implement new infrastructure, IT-platforms or biotechnologies, like gene editing or synthetic food production. A more advanced knowledge base about food innovations helps customers to build informed opinions of new technologies and provides policy makers and industry actors with better information for strategic decision-making. As the amount of available information exceeds expert knowledge or manual filtering of data outputs, this paper presents a text mining study on science and technology in food production based on more than 30 million documents. The proposed methodology which we demonstrate on the example of the future of food production can be applied each time new data becomes available and can serve as an early warning system for a changing technology landscape.     

可持续转型理论研究综述及展望

国外近20年才兴起的可持续转型（ST）理论, 为破解当前新兴技术产业化发展成功率和贡献度不高、扶持效果不大的困境提供了系统有效的分析模型和方法工具，已成为当前技术创新管理和可持续发展管理研究的一个热点领域，目前国内对ST理论的研究全貌和前沿跟踪仍显不足。辨析了国外ST理论的研究缘起和内涵特征，运用知识图谱方法描绘了ST研究的知识基础、发展脉络及热点趋势。在此基础上，分析了运用ST研究新兴技术产业化的优势，最后指出了未来研究方向。     

Technology Forecasting Activities in Japan

Japan started its development in science and technology later than other countries but was nevertheless quite successful. Many factors contributed to this success—and one of them was the adaptation of large foresight studies at the end of the 1960s. In Japan, the Science and Technology Agency (STA), among others, in 1971 started to conduct a large study on the future of science and technology. The Delphi method was one technique used for foresight activities. This was not considered a tool of prediction but an instrument to systematically look into the long-term future. Among the aims of this type of national activity is the identification of areas of strategic research and of generic technologies most likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits. Although many countries stopped their national foresight activities in the 1970s, the Japanese Delphi process continued and was applied every five years. In 1997, the sixth study was finished. Yet, Japanese technology policies are less consistent than is commonly believed and involve an assortment of policy measures and actors/agencies pragmatically devised to address diverse, ever-changing, and sometimes conflicting needs embedded in a broad range of issues. Forecasting results provide the “language” to communicate among Japanese actors in science, technology, and society.     

Delphi analysis of national specificities in selected innovative areas in Germany and France

The increasing complexity of the relations between technologies and economics combined with more social pressure, global competition, technological change, as well as national budget restrictions, imply new challenges for public policies. Thus, to be able to forecast the development of knowledge and technological change in some well-known trajectories could be one of the major stakes for science technology and industrial policies. It is then not surprising that recent years have brought a significant revival of public foresight activities in many countries. The purpose of the paper is precisely to propose a new foresight method in order to obtain a taxonomy of the future technologies, and consequently to provide a better understanding of industrial dynamics. We present a statistical analysis of a Delphi investigation, based on scientific and technological knowledge complementarities, in order to obtain coherent clusters, which may be looked upon as a theoretical tool for political decisions. Our methodology is then applied to French and the German sectors of life sciences, elementary particles, energy, environment and natural resources.     

Socio-Political Evaluation of Energy Deployment (SPEED): An integrated research framework analyzing energy technology deployment

Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to reduce the risks of climate change requires a major transition in society's energy infrastructure; yet despite a growing sense of urgency, deployment of alternative emerging energy technologies has been slow and uncertain. This paper proposes a systematic, interdisciplinary framework for the integrated analysis of regulatory, legal, political, economic, and social factors that influence energy technology deployment decisions at the state level to enhance awareness of the interconnections and enable improved energy policy and planning and accelerated change in society's energy infrastructure. This framework, Socio-Political Evaluation of Energy Deployment, (SPEED), integrates analysis of laws, regulations, institutions and policy actors as well as varying regional perceptions and levels of awareness about the risks and benefits of emerging energy technologies to facilitate improved understanding of the complex interconnected components of state energy systems. While this framework has been developed with U.S. states as a model, the SPEED framework is generalizable to other countries with different sub-national structures. We present three research methods that could be applied within the SPEED framework that could be particularly helpful in understanding the integrated socio-political influences on energy technology deployment: (1) policy review and analysis, (2) media analysis, and (3) focus groups and structured interviews with key stakeholders. By integrating the fields of technology diffusion, environmental policy, comparative analysis of states, and risk perception, future empirical research conducted within this SPEED framework will improve understanding of the interconnected socio-political influences on energy technology deployment to enable energy modelers, policy-makers, energy professionals, state planners and other stakeholders to develop and implement more effective strategies to accelerate the deployment of emerging energy technologies.     

Developing technology assessment methodology: Some insights and experiences

The authors suggest that policy-oriented assessments of newly emerging technologies could benefit from explicit attention to methodological concerns. Although some of the early literature attempted to develop distinct methodology for performing technology assessment, the authors do not believe that a singular approach is possible. In spite of having some common elements or aspects, assessments vary widely depending upon their specific subject matter, the normative factors included in them, and the policy work to which they pertain. Thus, the methodology appropriate for any particular assessment must be derived from experimental knowledge and “savvy” as well as the more formal and replicable techniques. In closing, the authors urge persons involved in technology assessment to share their project experiences; such a practice will facilitate the creation of a larger pool of competence and help others to cope with the difficulties that have befallen previous technology assessment studies.¹     

Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies

Technology assessment (TA) has developed into a method that puts a strong emphasis on facilitating interfaces between supply of science and technology and the demand for useful applications. Recently, we also see that TA becomes an integral part of science and technology programs, for instance in nanotechnology. The basic aim of the latter is to articulate the needs, wishes, and constraints, for example from professional users, already in the emerging stage of technological development. TA methods come in many different forms, although they are often different versions of a limited set of ‘basic approaches’ adapted to specific conditions with the overall aim to improve societal embedding. The thrust of this paper lies in the development and results of a variant of constructive TA (CTA), addressing technological development in an early phase in order to bypass the Collingridge dilemma by developing and testing scenarios including options for the further development of emerging technologies.How to support a broad selection of relevant actors effectively with CTA in such a way that they are enabled to play their role in innovation processes of emerging technologies? This is the main research question taken up in this paper. To take on this challenge we develop, apply, and evaluate an intervention we named the 3-step constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach. We will apply the approach to a nanotechnology related topic, Lab-on-a-chip technology. By assessing the effects and evaluating the proposed approach, we also want to contribute to the development of new methodological insights relevant for the TA community.     

基于TRIZ的战略性新兴产业技术创新方法研究

战略性新兴产业是技术突破与创新产品市场化深度融合的产业,技术创新对战略性新兴产业的发展尤为重要。TRIZ理论作为国际公认的重要创新方法之一,能够有效地解决战略性新兴产业技术创新中存在的主要问题。将TRIZ分析解决问题的创新思维方法嵌入到产业技术创新过程中,针对战略性新兴产业在发展过程中存在的技术范式不确定、知识产权及科研管理机制不健全、资源配置机制不合理等问题,从制约技术创新的瓶颈、路径分析、创新方案确立等方面探索战略性新兴产业技术方法问题,针对产业技术创新的萌芽期、成长期、成熟期,分别制定出合理的创新方案。     

Ethical dilemma scenarios and emerging technologies

This paper posits that ethical dilemma scenarios are a useful instrument to provoke policy‐makers and other stakeholders, to including industry, in considering the privacy, ethical, social and other implications of new and emerging technologies. It describes a methodology for constructing and deconstructing such scenarios and provides four such scenarios in an orthogonal relationship with each other. The paper describes some different, but closely related scenario construction–deconstruction methodologies, which formed the basis for the methodology adopted in the European Commission-funded PRESCIENT project. The paper makes the point that in ethical dilemma scenarios, it is not immediately apparent what choices policy‐makers should select. Hence, there is a need for undertaking a privacy and ethical impact assessment and engaging stakeholders in the process to identify and discuss the issues raised in the scenarios.     

萌芽期颠覆性技术识别研究

从颠覆性技术成长周期入手，根据萌芽期颠覆性技术特点，采用基于创新性、独创性与功能分析的识别方法，在技术创新没有造成市场显著变化时实现预警决策。首先进行技术生命周期分析，随后利用创新性和独创性特点衡量技术颠覆性，排除渐进性技术干扰，最后运用功能分析方法研究技术新功能对未来市场的影响。以工业机器人专利技术领域进行实证，验证了方法的可行性和有效性。     

Technological change and future growth: Issues and opportunities

Over the next three decades we may anticipate major technological advances and changes in American society in the area of electronics, automation, information handling, food, and biological manipulations, as well as in the more commonplace areas of industry, commerce, and domestic devices. Dominant elements driving these changes are fundamental shifts in the availability of energy and materials, which will stimulate major innovation in substitutions, extended service life, and easier maintainability; and the increasing role of science as a well-spring of new technologies. Furthermore, the movement of U.S. society into a post-industrial society with its emphasis on knowledge based industries will stimulate major shifts in the nature and location of work, land use, and information-associated technologies. This will be accompanied by a flourishing of social, institutional, and psychological technologies.Market forces will play a dominant role in the realization of these new technological developments. In addition to these forces, technological needs and opportunities will arise which lie outside the market system, such as developments with regard to geophysical manipulation, earthquake control, and weather modification.The principal role of government in assuring continuing benefits from technology is guiding the socially effective interplay of the basic variables: land, labor, capital, resource availability and knowledge. To be socially useful, the interplay must be future-oriented, flexible, and information driven. One specific role for government is setting reliable boundary conditions on private and public endeavors with some clarity and incisiveness to permit market and non-market forces to operate. Put differently, a principal role for government is the more effective management of uncertainties with regard to future potential opportunities and risks in order to encourage new and needed developments and innovations.A principal limitation on technological and scientific decision-making is the inadequacy of knowledge gathered and organized for the purpose of illuminating public policy. Meeting these information needs is a second specific role for government. Since most information is collected for other purposes, modifications which explicity generate and collect policy-related information would effect a major improvement in public and private decisionmaking.The wider practice of the concept of technology assessment as a means to better understand options, alternatives, and consequences for technology should be encouraged in and out of government.Many major regulatory agencies of government reflect needs and problems decades old which are no longer of primary importance. A third specific role for government in guiding technology, the reform of the regulatory agencies through their restructing, offers major opportunities for more effective management of technology. Primary candidates for this specific role of government include agencies regulating communications, drugs, banking, securities, energy, health care, transportation, and marine and oceanographic affairs.The fourth major role for government, research and development, should be driven by several convergent factors. There are opportunities for new and expanded technological developments with regard to: (a)The wiring of metropolitan and rural areas for fuller telecommunications; (b)the introduction of major new energy sources such as solar, geothermal, and ocean technologies; (c)the reformulation of education technologies, welfare, and health delivery systems; and (d) the reconstruction of cities and other habitats. Furthermore, the economically mature society implies not less but different technology emphasizing: social and biological as well as physical technology; personal improvement and fulfillment, and accomplishing more with less. There also are numerous problems of a high-growth society such as the propensity to maximize bureaucratic efficiency at the expense of social effectiveness; alienation of workers; adverse effects of excessive size and integration; societal needs not accommodated by market forces, and the negative side effects of technology. Each of these clusters of problems and opportunities could be profoundly influenced by research and experimentation.     

Evaluating innovation networks in emerging technologies

Interorganisational innovation networks are increasingly important for innovation in emerging technology fields. The performance of such networks can have a large impact on the future development of emerging technologies. A useful framework for the evaluation of innovation networks however does not yet exist. In this paper, such a framework is developed, using elements of the social network analysis literature and the resource-based view. This framework is subsequently applied to compare two policy-driven innovation networks: 1) the Center for Translational Molecular Medicine; and 2) the BioMedical Materials program. Based on this first empirical exploration of the framework implications for management and further policy development are formulated.     

ESTEEM: Managing societal acceptance in new energy projects : A toolbox method for project managers

There is now a large literature dealing with the policy question of public participation in technical choice and technology assessment (TA). Files such as the mad cow crisis, genetically modified food, and the emerging nanotechnologies have been edified into a public problem, and have given place to a number of experiments and reviews about participatory arrangements. Much less attention has been devoted so far to the application of the TA framework to more local and limited projects-not yet and maybe never reaching the public problem status-and the management of their societal dimensions. Among them, new energy technology represents a very interesting field for investigation: many of the new energy enjoy a global positive public image whereas the local implementation of their implantation often raises societal questions and oppositions. This paper describes an original experiment conducted in the field of new energy technologies during which a participatory technology assessment inspired approach was applied to a number of individual and local projects. A framework methodology called ESTEEM was developed to facilitate such participatory process to take place, and it was tested and evaluated in 5 projects located in 5 different countries over Europe. A detailed discussion of the ESTEEM method and its application to one case study, a Carbon Sequestration project in The Netherlands, is provided. We show that a major question in the application in such participatory framework is to establish a reflective practice of project management based on situated and constructive interactions between project promoters and project stakeholders.     

Developing a transformative business strategy through the combination of design thinking and futures literacy

The paper describes a systematic methodology that combines futures literacy and design thinking to enable the collective discovery of new and disruptive business niches. It is a participatory approach centred on design know-how, which promotes innovative forms of engagement and articulation. The proposed methodology balances experience in designing and applying foresight approaches and futures literacy knowledge labs together with a multidisciplinary understanding of institutional context.

The methodology fosters decision making processes that embrace complexity and treat uncertainty as a resource, thus improving an organisations’ capacity to use the future to expand its understanding of the present. It has been applied at the Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), an organisation where institutionalised foresight and technology assessment takes place in Brazil, especially in support of Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) policy design and implementation, as well as evaluation. However, its clients also include different ministries within government and industries alike.

The article outlines the ways in which the organisation involved all its collaborators in jointly rethinking its future, building upon collective intelligence, narrative building, sense making, framing and reframing. The design principles called for these experiments to follow a collective learning curve that enable a renewed focus on systemic and transformative innovation. The crafting of new strategic questions was inspired by jointly expanding the understanding of the imaginary futures of the interrelated systems in which the organisation might play a role. As a consequence, new and disruptive possible roles for the institution were identified. These insights then informed the assessment and choices for the redesign of the business strategy.

This paper presents the methodology for combining design thinking and futures literacy, the application of this methodology to CGEE, and the major findings of the overall exercise. Readers will find out about the impact of this exercise on the organisation’s approach to both its own strategic positioning and to the design and implementation of foresight and strategic studies. The paper concludes by outlining the implications of the proposed methodology for foresight practice.     

新能源技术产业与中国的发展策略

新能源技术产业是现代社会能源发展的必然走向，发展清洁、安全的新能源技术产业，是环境友好型、资源节约型社会发展的本质要求，是推动和谐社会发展必不可少的原动力，是重要的战略资源，是国际上高新技术产业之一，是国民经济的基础性产业，有利于经济持续健康发展，有利于人民生活质量的提高和生态环境的改善，新能源技术产业是新形势下能源转型的战略选择与重要方向。但当前新能源技术产业还处于初步发展阶段，需进一步的完善和发展。     

企业信息资源整合的推进模式分析

企业信息资源整合的实施是一项极其复杂的社会——技术工程,它不仅涉及到信息技术的应用,还涉及到战略管理、组织集成等诸多因素,其中后者往往是决定整合能否成功的主要因素。因此,在企业信息资源整合推进中,应该从系统论的角度出发,均衡考虑技术、战略管理、组织集成等方面的影响因素,形成战略整合、组织整合、技术整合一体化的信息资源整合推进模式。在分析信息资源整合各层次推进要点及其信息资源整合层次推进模型中存在问题的基础上,构建信息资源整合的协同推进模型。     

国外发展战略性新兴产业的产学研合作模式及对武汉市的启示

战略性新兴产业是新兴科技和新兴产业的一个深度结合,对于促进经济社会可持续发展具有强大的引领作用。在分析战略性新兴产业特征的基础上,介绍了国外发展战略性新兴产业的产学研模式,并对武汉市发展战略性新兴产业的产学研合作提出了建议。