“低碳线路”借东风

值此保增长无虞、促调整差强人意的关键时刻,碳关税的提出对中国来说无疑具有非常重要的现实意义。那就是,将促使中国积极落实降低碳排放的承诺,促进经济转型。针对美国碳关税两个战场一盘棋的策略,中国一方面需要针锋相对地提出破解,将贸易关税问题与气候变化问题分开,让关税归关税,减排归减排,而另一方面就是积极布局中国自己的低碳路线图。     

论我国应对碳关税贸易壁垒的对策——基于国际经济法基本原则视角

随着全球气候变化,发达国家以保护环境为名提出了低碳经济,实为新的贸易保护,本文从国际经济法基本原则角度分析了碳关税对发展中国家的不利影响,并提出了我国应采取的相应对策。     

碳关税对我国产业国际竞争力的影响及对策分析

近年来,随着经济的发展,也出现了越来越多的气候变化问题,一些发达国家以应对此问题为理由提出对本国进口的碳排放量较大的产品征收一种特别的关税——二氧化碳排放关税,即碳关税。虽然我国现在反对征收碳关税,但是考虑到发达国家在国际经济秩序中所处的主导地位,掌控着绝对的话语权,而我们发展中国家之间对碳关税又缺乏统一协调的立场和一致的观点,因此发达国家极有可能在未来单方面实施征收碳关税的政策。碳关税的开征将毋庸置疑的对我国的出口产业造成严重冲击,因此,我国应当未雨绸缪,积极应对碳关税。总体上看,我国在国内征收碳税可能是一种比较有效的应对发达国家碳关税的方法。     

欧盟碳定价政策的影响与应对

气候变化和环境污染问题是当今世界所面临的热点问题。本文聚焦于欧盟的碳定价政策,分析其运行的逻辑、潜在的问题、产生的影响以及中国的应对方案。欧盟施行碳排放权交易、碳税并存的复合碳定价政策,采取循序渐进的方式分阶段减排,这有效降低了污染排放。但是,欧盟碳交易市场仍存在一些问题,“碳关税”引发了诸多发展中国家的担忧,且对其他地区存在污染转移问题。欧盟碳定价政策会对国际经贸规则、贸易壁垒、绿色贸易以及发展中国家产品出口等多方面产生影响。中国应采取相应对策和完善相关制度,以更好地应对欧盟碳定价政策。     

征收碳关税对我国进出口贸易的影响——以我国纺织品贸易为例

根据世界银行的研究报告,如果碳关税全面实施,在国际市场上,中国制造可能将面临平均26%的关税,出口量因此可能下滑21%。一旦实施,碳关税将成为某些国家狙击＂中国制造＂的利器。面对低碳经济发展模式席卷全球的形势,碳税的征收成为必然。纺织服装业作为中国在国际市场颇具竞争力的产业,不可避免地承担起降低碳排放的责任,这必然加大了纺织业在国际贸易中所承受的压力。     

征税标准与碳关税对中国经济和碳排放的潜在影响

本文采用动态可计算一般均衡模型分析了不同征税标准下碳关税对中国经济和碳排放的影响。当征税标准由隐含碳系数改为直接碳系数、由中国碳系数改为美国或欧盟的碳系数,或者当碳系数因技术进步而降低时,碳关税的影响将显著减弱。只有美国和欧盟征收碳关税时,中国各部门对这两地区的出口会大幅下降,但对其他地区的出口则显著上升。碳减排量相同时,中国经济受本国碳税的影响远低于碳关税的影响。不过,如果中国通过征收碳税在2020年将本国碳系数降至美国水平,其影响将超过所有贸易伙伴都征收碳关税的影响。因此,中国既要抵制碳关税,也应积极实施创新驱动发展战略、渐进的低碳发展战略和优化贸易结构来应对其潜在不利影响。     

碳关税对我国外贸产生的影响及应对策略

气候大会的相继召开说明各国越来越重视气候变化,发展低碳经济已经成为世界共识。发达国家提出碳关税的概念,以求减少全球二氧化碳排放,引起了以中国为首的发展中国家强烈的反对。主要介绍碳关税的含义、由来以及目前实施的现状,分析征收碳关税将对我国外贸产生的巨大影响,最后从国内和国际两个层面提出应对碳关税的措施。     

低碳经济对贸易格局的影响

全球气候变暖已经严重危害到人类的生存环境和健康安全,所以发展低碳经济已经成为当今世界不可逆转的大趋势。而在经济全球化的背景下,低碳经济必然对贸易格局产生重大影响。各国越来越注重绿色贸易,发达国家和发展中国家的碳排放权交易日渐成熟,由"大蛋糕"分配而招致的碳关税征收将使发展中国家低成本优势不复存在,从而影响了发展中国家的对外贸易、经济发展乃至人口就业吃饭。所以,我们必须采取一定的措施来发展低碳经济。     

从制度设想到贸易政策:美国碳关税蜕变之路障碍分析

美国试图在其气候变化立法中确立碳关税制度,对来自未实施减排的国家的能源密集型产品采取边境调节措施。这一制度设想以碳关税理论研究为基础。经济上和政治上的正当性是碳关税早期研究的重点,而国内程序性障碍及多边体制下的合法性问题是后危机时代碳关税研究的中心。作者回顾了碳关税理论研究,从国内和国际两个层面对碳关税从制度设想蜕变为美国贸易政策面临的障碍加以分析。一方面,公众对美国经济再次受挫的担忧、气候变化立法对国内产业的影响以及各种利益集团的博弈决定了美国国内不具备碳关税成为贸易政策的现实条件;另一方面,多边体制下碳关税也难以成为符合世贸组织法律的贸易政策,因为不仅碳关税制度设计中存在诸多违反非歧视原则的规定,而且碳关税欲借一般例外条款谋求合法地位也面临许多挑战。中国应未雨绸缪,从容应对。     

浅析碳关税制度及我国的应对

全球气候变暖是全人类共同面临的巨大挑战,保护气候安全是国际社会的共同目标。为此,国际社会需要密切合作,及早减少温室气体排放。在此背景下,贸易与气候变化的关系进入人们的视野,成为贸易领域研究的前沿问题。2009年6月26日,美国众议院通过了《清洁能源与安全议案》,该议案宣称,将从2020年起对不接受污染物减排标准的国家实行贸易制裁,具体的措施将表现为对未达到碳排放标准的外国产品征收惩罚性关税。“碳关税”的说法由此而来。碳关税的提出,在更大程度上是一个国际政治经济问题,背后隐藏复杂的战略利益分配关系,其对中国未来的出口、就业以及经济增长的影响都不容小觑。为了应对碳关税的博弈,需提前谋划和布局相应的对策。因此,笔者尝试在本文中简述碳关税的形成背景、碳关税的实质、以及我国的应对方法。     

Policy analysis with Melitz-type gravity model: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

Several governments worldwide aim at fostering agricultural productivity growth by providing investment support. However, the policy’s effect on trade for middle- and low-income countries has not been analyzed so far. This paper analyzes the impact of agricultural policies (credit subsidies and tariffs) on agricultural trade flows by modifying a Melitz-type structural gravity model for a small and open economy. According to the theory, trade flows are expected to increase with credit subsidies and decrease with partners’ applied tariff rates. We analyze bilateral agricultural trade flows between Kyrgyzstan and its 69 trading partners from 2007 to 2018 to test our theoretical findings. Applying the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator, we find that credit subsidies effectively increase international trade flows while applied tariffs imposed on agricultural products reduce Kyrgyzstan’s export substantially. These results can be applied to similar economies with publicly available data where small budgetary efforts drive trade expansion.     

The U.S. proposed carbon tariffs, WTO scrutiny and China’s responses

With governments from around the world trying to hammer out a post-2012 climate change agreement, no one would disagree that a U.S. commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions is essential to such a global pact. However, despite U.S. president Obama’s announcement to push for a commitment to cut U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 17% by 2020, in reality it is questionable whether U.S. Congress will agree to specific emissions cuts, although they are not ambitious at all from the perspectives of both the EU and developing countries, without the imposition of carbon tariffs on Chinese products to the U.S. market, even given China’s own announcement to voluntarily seek to reduce its carbon intensity by 40–45% over the same period. This dilemma is partly attributed to flaws in current international climate negotiations, which have been focused on commitments on the two targeted dates of 2020 and 2050. However, if the international climate change negotiations continue on their current course without extending the commitment period to 2030, which would really open the possibility for the U.S. and China to make the commitments that each wants from the other, the inclusion of border carbon adjustment measures seems essential to secure passage of any U.S. legislation capping its own greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, the joint WTO-UNEP report indicates that border carbon adjustment measures might be allowed under the existing WTO rules, depending on their specific design features and the specific conditions for implementing them. Against this background, this paper argues that, on the U.S. side, there is a need to minimize the potential conflicts with WTO provisions in designing such border carbon adjustment measures. The U.S. also needs to explore, with its trading partners, ccooperative sectoral approaches to advancing low-carbon technologies and/or concerted mitigation efforts in a given sector at the international level. Moreover, to increase the prospects for a successful WTO defence of the Waxman-Markey type of border adjustment provision, there should be: 1) a period of good faith efforts to reach agreements among the countries concerned before imposing such trade measures; 2) consideration of alternatives to trade provisions that could reasonably be expected to fulfill the same function but are not inconsistent or less inconsistent with the relevant WTO provisions; and 3) trade provisions that should allow importers to submit equivalent emission reduction units that are recognized by international treaties to cover the carbon contents of imported products. Meanwhile, being targeted by such border carbon adjustment measures, China needs to, at the right time, indicate a serious commitment to address climate change issues to challenge the legitimacy of the U.S. imposing carbon tariffs by signaling well ahead that it will take on binding absolute emission caps around the year 2030, and needs the three transitional periods of increasing climate obligations before taking on absolute emissions caps. This paper argues that there is a clear need within a climate regime to define comparable efforts towards climate mitigation and adaptation to discipline the use of unilateral trade measures at the international level. As exemplified by export tariffs that China applied on its own during 2006–08, the paper shows that defining the comparability of climate efforts can be to China’s advantage. Furthermore, given the fact that, in volume terms, energy-intensive manufacturing in China values 7 to 8 times that of India, and thus carbon tariffs have a greater impact on China than on India, the paper questions whether China should hold the same stance on this issue as India as it does now, although the two largest developing countries should continue to take a common position on other key issues in international climate change negotiations.     

中国应积极面对碳关税

当前气候问题成为世界关注的焦点,美国、法国在全球贸易中对碳关税政策的态度,引起了全球普遍的关注和争议。本文根据碳关税产生的背景和实质,分析了碳关税对中国经济发展的不利影响,考虑到未来低碳经济将成为新的经济增长点,这决定了我国必须在碳关税征收前做好准备,同时提出了我国应对碳关税的政策建议。     

Trade policy substitution: theory and evidence

Review of World Economics - With the help of a political economy model, we show that the extent of ‘trade policy substitution’—namely, substitution of tariffs with non-tariff...     

加快经济转型 全面应对碳关税冲击

当前发达国家正在设立各种碳壁垒,试图分摊碳减排的代价,其中利用碳关税设置重重壁垒将是发达国家建立另类霸权的新趋势。各国国际收支平衡、碳贸易摩擦、汇率问题、碳减排配额及其分配问题等都将与碳关税的征收高度联系起来。中国必须通过加快经济转型,全方位应对碳关税冲击。     

碳排放规制下中国对外贸易的发展

基于环境保护和贸易保护的目的,部分国家提出了征收＂碳关税＂的诉求。这将对中国的出口贸易产生什么样的影响？文章根据各行业的碳排放强度和出口贸易细分数据,分析了征收碳关税可能对各行业产生的影响并提出了应对之策。     

经济危机下贸易保护主义的特征、影响及其应对策略

在全球经济走弱的大环境下,为加大保护本国产业力度,贸易保护策略受到各国政府青睐。贸易保护主义无疑将直接冲击和影响我国的进出口贸易,在较长时期内使我国的国际贸易环境复杂化。因此,本文通过深入研究经济危机贸易保护主义的主要特点、发展趋势以及对我国出口贸易的影响,探讨政府应对贸易保护主义的对策。     

对中国碳交易定价话语权缺失的质疑和建议——基于低碳经济“陷阱”的思考

随着中国参与国际碳交易的不断深入,越来越多的业内人士认为,中国缺失碳交易价格话语权是中国处在国际碳交易被动地位的主要原因。文章基于防范低碳经济"陷阱"的角度,对此观点的准确性提出了质疑,并分析了原因,进而从需求、供给、市场和政府限价因素等四个方面提出了建立我国碳交易价格机制的模型,指出从制度基础、碳价格实现场所、设立碳排放的登记机关、开展碳期货交易和建立碳经纪人制度等方面的运行条件。