Government Expenditures and Revenues in Italy in a Long-run Perspective

The aim of this study is to investigate the sustainability of Italian public accounts using in a long-run perspective, using empirical tests on sustainability and solvency of the country’s fiscal policies. The results of unit root and stationarity tests show that government expenditures and revenues series are first-differences stationary. The empirical analysis considered both the entire period and two sub-periods (1862–1913, 1947–2013). Furthermore, we conduct tests on cointegration, which evidence that a clear long-run relationship between public expenditure and revenues emerges only for the years 1862–1913. In essence, the paper’s results reveal that Italy have sustainability problems in the republican age.

     

Trade policy substitution: theory and evidence

Review of World Economics - With the help of a political economy model, we show that the extent of ‘trade policy substitution’—namely, substitution of tariffs with non-tariff...     

The Sustainability of Italian Public Debt and Deficit

In this paper, we analyse the sustainability of Italian public debt using a unique database, reconstructed by Forte (2011), which covers the years 1862–2013. The study focuses on empirical tests for the sustainability and solvency of Italian public finance. The results of unit root and stationarity tests show that public debt and deficit variables are non-stationary at levels, but stationary in first-differences form, or I(1). However, some breaks in the series emerge, given internal and external crises (wars, oil shocks, regime changes, institutional reforms). Therefore, the empirical analysis is conducted for the entire period, as well as two sub-periods (1862–1913 and 1947–2013). In essence, the paper’s results reveal that Italy has sustainability problems in the Republican age (1947-2013). Our Markov-switching dynamic regression model indicates the existence of two distinct states, both for public debt and deficit, with means and standard deviations rather different. Both states are extremely persistent.     

Twin Deficits in the European Countries

Public debt is a burden on future electors and taxpayers. In the absence of constitutional constraints, the incumbent government may show the cost of some public expenditures or tax reductions toward the future by financing them via new debt. However, according to the Ricardian theorem of public debt, the burden of debt is always anticipated via increased saving. If this theorem were true, a budget deficit would not affect the current account of the balance of payment. This paper analyzes the relationship between trade deficit and budget deficit. Using yearly data for the period between 1970 and 2010 in 33 European countries, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that a chronic and robust budget deficit generates a trade deficit. The dynamic estimates show that a 1 % decrease in the government budget surplus/GDP ratio tends to deteriorate the current account/GDP ratio of 0.37 %, confirming previous studies with a different empirical basis. Dividing the sample period into two sub-periods (1970–1991 and 1992–2010), empirical findings show that current and past values of government budget influence trade balance in the first sub-period, whilst past values of government budget affect trade balance in the most recent years. Moreover, the estimated effect of government budget on current account balance is positive and equal to 0.48 and 0.30, respectively. For the high deficit countries, a long-run relationship between these variables has been found, showing that one percentage point increase in budget surplus/GDP ratio is associated with an improvement in the current account balance of roughly 0.15 percentage point. The estimated long-run government budget elasticity is negative and statistically significant, while the estimated speed of adjustment is equal to 0.33. Finally, Granger causality tests show mixed results.     

Existence,uniqueness, and stability of optimal payoffs of eligible assets

In a capital adequacy framework, risk measures are used to determine the minimal amount of capital that a financial institution has to raise and invest in a portfolio of prespecified eligible assets in order to pass a given capital adequacy test. From a capital efficiency perspective, it is important to be able to do so at the lowest possible cost and to identify the corresponding portfolios, or, equivalently, their payoffs. We study the existence and uniqueness of such optimal payoffs as well as their behavior under a perturbation or an approximation of the underlying capital position. This behavior is naturally linked to the continuity properties of the set‐valued map that associates to each capital position the corresponding set of optimal eligible payoffs. Upper continuity can be ensured under fairly natural assumptions. Lower continuity is typically less easy to establish. While it is always satisfied in a polyhedral setting, it generally fails otherwise, even when the reference risk measure is convex. However, lower continuity can often be established for eligible payoffs that are close to being optimal. Besides capital adequacy, our results have a variety of natural applications to pricing, hedging, and capital allocation problems.     

The price stabilization effects of the EU entry price scheme for fruit and vegetables

The article assesses the stabilization effects of the EU import regime for fresh fruit and vegetables based on the entry price system (EPS). The analysis is carried out on the EU prices of tomatoes and lemons and those of imports from some of the main competing countries on the EU domestic markets: Morocco, Argentina, and Turkey. It is based on the estimation of a threshold vector autoregressive econometric model that is shown capable of taking the workings of the import regime into account. The model shows that prices behave differently when import prices are above/below the trigger entry price. This article allowed to highlight the cases for which the isolation effect of EPS seems reached and the resulting stabilization effects.     

Fatou property,representations, and extensions of law-invariant risk measures on general Orlicz spaces

We provide a variety of results for quasiconvex, law-invariant functionals defined on a general Orlicz space, which extend well-known results from the setting of bounded random variables. First, we show that Delbaen’s representation of convex functionals with the Fatou property, which fails in a general Orlicz space, can always be achieved under the assumption of law-invariance. Second, we identify the class of Orlicz spaces where the characterization of the Fatou property in terms of norm-lower semicontinuity by Jouini, Schachermayer and Touzi continues to hold. Third, we extend Kusuoka’s representation to a general Orlicz space. Finally, we prove a version of the extension result by Filipovi? and Svindland by replacing norm-lower semicontinuity with the (generally non-equivalent) Fatou property. Our results have natural applications to the theory of risk measures.