Trade policy substitution: theory and evidence

Review of World Economics - With the help of a political economy model, we show that the extent of ‘trade policy substitution’—namely, substitution of tariffs with non-tariff...     

Dutch disease revisited. Oil discoveries and movements of the real exchange rate when manufacturing is resource-intensive

We study how natural resource booms affect the real exchange rate in a situation where there are input–output linkages between the manufacturing sector and the natural resource sector. An increase in revenues from natural resources could de-industrialize an economy by raising the real exchange rate, rendering the manufacturing sector less competitive. This tendency towards de-industrialization has been called “Dutch disease”. We build a theoretical model showing that a country experiencing discoveries of natural resources, such as oil, is not necessarily bound to experience the Dutch disease. The appreciation of the real exchange rate can be escaped if patterns of specialization shift towards the manufacturing industries that use oil more intensively. In the second part of the paper, we test the model and find support for the claim that Dutch disease effect associated with discoveries of natural resources (namely oil) are dampened in countries that specialize in resource-intensive manufacturing industries.     

Domestic value chains as stepping stones to global value chain integration

Identifying the determinants of global value chain (GVC) integration is essential to understand the past expansion and current slowdown in GVCs. In this paper, we study the role of domestic value chains (DVCs) for GVC integration. In the presence of industry‐specific fixed costs of fragmenting production and of switching across input suppliers, DVCs can either be stepping stones or stumbling blocks for subsequent GVC entry. Focusing on backward linkages, that is, the sourcing of intermediates, we provide robust empirical evidence in favour of the stepping‐stone hypothesis. In our benchmark specification, a one standard deviation increase in DVC integration raises subsequent GVC integration by about 0.4%. To identify the mechanisms at work, we exploit two dimensions of industry‐level heterogeneity: product differentiation (a proxy of fragmentation costs) and relationship specificity (a proxy of the costs of switching between suppliers). We find that DVC integration is less conducive to GVC integration in industries that are characterised by relatively high switching costs and relatively low fragmentation costs.     

Outsourcing and Competition Policy

We analyze optimal competition policy by a Competition Agency (CA) in a model with two countries, North and South, were a final good is produced by Northern oligopolistic firms using an input that can either be produced within the firm (vertical integration) or outsourced to Southern oligopolistic producers with lower labor costs (outsourcing). In the case where the final good is only consumed in the North, a CA in the South would optimally appropriate outsourcing rents through restrictions on the degree of competition among domestic firms. If the final good is consumed in both countries, we find that optimal competition policy in the South is marginally affected by the share of Southern consumption, leaving relatively important incentives to engage in rent-shifting. For a high enough share of Southern consumption, however, the interaction between the Northern and Southern CA is shown to be of the Prisoner’s Dilemma type, whereby the Nash equilibrium is Pareto-suboptimal and mutual cooperation on competition policy is globally desirable.