Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES

We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). At the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. All three scenarios follow the qualitative scenario characteristics, as outlined in the original SRES scenarios. Two scenarios (B1 and B2) also follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised “high population growth” scenario, A2r world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a “delayed fertility transition” that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up, resulting in an initially stagnating and subsequently only very slow reduction in income disparities. The spatially explicit scenario interpretation proceeds via two steps. Through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods, world regional scenario results are first disaggregated to the level of 185 countries. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to a grid cell level, taking urbanization and regional (rural–urban) income disparities explicitly into account. A distinguishing feature of the spatially explicit scenario results reported here is that both methodologies, as well as numerical assumptions underlying the “downscaling” exercise, are scenario-dependent, leading to distinctly different spatial patterns of population and economic activities across the three scenarios examined.     

Scenarios and the growth of knowledge: Notes on the epistemic element in scenario building

Scenarios raise a very remarkable challenge. They are a special category of thought experiments and as such they deal with the domain of the “possible” and “probable”, i.e. with the world of speculation. Nevertheless they are of a crucial practical importance for public policy, management and strategic thinking in general: any premeditated significant action has to be preceded by such a thought experiment that anticipates the possibility of its outcomes and its implications. The question is then, how could speculation have such a crucial epistemic role? What kind of knowledge, if any, do scenarios produce? What is the epistemic role of scenarios? The objective of this article is to discuss the controversial but crucial issue of the epistemic functions of scenarios and to outline several possible approaches to it. The article explores the relevance in this respect of the research that has been already done on thought experiments, de-biasing, deductive arguments and uncertainty—and complexity—coping cognitive devices while indicating the potential contribution of that literature to the further development of the scenario building practice and of the futures methodology.     

Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project

Social, natural and cultural systems are changing rapidly, influencing the future of Europe's fresh waters. One of the drivers shaping this future is the implementation of the Water Framework Directive. Participatory scenario development is well-suited to the challenges posed by the WFD to develop a long-term view by involving stakeholders. In this paper we analyse the process and results of a series of stakeholder workshops to develop scenarios at pan-European level. Specifically, we aim at analysing the method and results of combining a backcasting methodology and exploratory scenario development process. Four exploratory scenarios (narrative storylines) were developed, in first instance based on a set of existing European scenarios. Results matched expectations; the process produced stories that are complex, integrated, and rich in detail. During the backcasting exercise, four timelines were constructed, each of which took one exploratory scenario as context. The backcasting process established a strong link with the exploratory scenarios by identifying a large number of obstacles and opportunities in the realisation of those timelines. An analysis across all backcasts yielded a list of 15 robust elements, i.e. elements that are potentially effective in all exploratory scenarios. A stakeholder questionnaire showed that overall there was a widespread satisfaction with both the process and the results. Stakeholders were satisfied with the overall methodology and the exploratory scenarios and somewhat more critical on the backcasting exercise and resulting robust strategies. Above all, we hope to have demonstrated that it is conceptually appealing, methodologically feasible, and practically useful to combine exploratory scenario development and backcasting analysis.     

On China's exosomatic energy metabolism: An application of multi-scale integrated analysis of societal metabolism (MSIASM)

The methodology of multi-scale integrated analysis of societal metabolism (MSIASM) is applied to the analysis of the recent evolution of Chinese economy. This paper has two goals: (1) to show the MSIASM scheme is effective in handling in an integrated way different types of data, mixing extensive and intensive variables, on different levels; and (2) to provide a multi-scale integrated analysis of the trajectory of development of China. The quality of possible scenarios is checked by identifying constraints affecting their feasibility and by characterizing them in relation to different dimensions and scales of analysis.This entails 4 tasks: (i) identifying a set of benchmarks that makes it possible to compare different characteristics and features of China to other countries and to the average values calculated for the world level; (ii) explaining the differences found over the selected set of benchmarks, by looking at the characteristics of the various sub-sectors of Chinese economy; (iii) understanding existing trends and future feasible paths of China's development by studying the existence of reciprocal constraints between the whole economy and its compartments; and (iv) examining possible future scenarios of development for China.     

Thinking inside the box: A participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery

Scenarios provide a commonly used and intuitively appealing means to communicate and characterize uncertainty in many decision support applications, but can fall short of their potential especially when used in broad public debates among participants with diverse interests and values. This paper describes a new approach to participatory, computer-assisted scenario development that we call scenario discovery, which aims to address these challenges. The approach defines scenarios as a set of plausible future states of the world that represent vulnerabilities of proposed policies, that is, cases where a policy fails to meet its performance goals. Scenario discovery characterizes such sets by helping users to apply statistical or data-mining algorithms to databases of simulation-model-generated results in order to identify easy-to-interpret combinations of uncertain model input parameters that are highly predictive of these policy-relevant cases. The approach has already proved successful in several high impact policy studies. This paper systematically describes the scenario discovery concept and its implementation, presents statistical tests to evaluate the resulting scenarios, and demonstrates the approach on an example policy problem involving the efficacy of a proposed U.S. renewable energy standard. The paper also describes how scenario discovery appears to address several outstanding challenges faced when applying traditional scenario approaches in contentious public debates.     

Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis

Cross-Impact methods are standard tools of the scenario technique. They provide a number of structured processes for the deduction of plausible developments of the future in the form of rough scenarios and are based on expert judgments about systemic interactions. Cross-Impact methods are mostly used for analytical tasks which do not allow the use of theory-based computational models due to their disciplinary heterogeneity and the relevance of “soft” system knowledge, but on the other hand are too complex for a purely argumentative systems analysis. The essentials of a new Cross-Impact approach (Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, CIB) are outlined; it is of high methodological flexibility and is especially suitable for the use in expert discourses due to its transparent analytical logic. Due to its mathematical qualities it is also particularly well suited for the analytical integration of calculable system parts. An application of CIB to a project on the generation of electricity and climate protection is described. For a theoretical foundation of the CIB method relations to systems theory, especially to the theory of dynamic systems, are discussed. This explicates that CIB scenarios correspond to the solutions of slowly time-varying pair-force systems.     

Scaffolding,software and scenarios: Applying Bruner's learning theory to energy scenario development with the public

While there is a literature on public and stakeholder engagement in environmental research and scenario development, less attention has been given to the individual learning processes that take place in these contexts. We present public perceptions of emission contraction scenarios for the UK city of Manchester and discuss this in terms of learning theory developed by Lev Vygotsky and Jerome Bruner. A key theme of this was the combination of three learning tools: scaffolding techniques, scenario building and backcasting. Overall, participants had little trouble envisaging a city-scale 41% CO₂ emissions reduction by 2020 relative to a 2005 baseline. However envisaging a 90% CO₂ emissions reduction for 2050 was found much more difficult, inducing discussion of whether some forms of compulsion might be justifiable. Despite detailed discussion and real-time, modelled feedback on the emissions implications of various energy technology scenarios, participants largely retained their original attitudes towards individual technologies and demand reduction options.     

商业模式创新中场景价值共创动因及作用机理研究

随着智慧互联技术的创新性应用,产品智能化、服务化、情感化发展趋势日益明显,用户需求在时间、地理空间及情感方面的高度耦合引起商业应用场景的海量涌现。由此,场景化商业模式创新在现实商业应用层面越来越广泛,并引起了学术界的高度关注。立足于商业模式新视角,探究场景构成要素、场景价值创造动因及其作用机理,以价值创造为核心,以情感体验、社群渠道、连接机制为场景的潜变量,论证了场景价值是基于顾客生活方式和生活细节的情感体验,并在特定消费情景中由企业与顾客共同创造、顾客自己独立创造出来的价值。研究成果打开了商业模式视角下对场景价值探究的黑箱,对现有企业商业模式创新设计提供了有益借鉴。     

The Value of Urban Green Space in Britain: A Methodological Framework for Spatially Referenced Benefit Transfer

A meta-analysis of studies valuing urban greenspace in the UK is undertaken to yield spatially sensitive marginal value functions. A geographical information system (GIS) is used to apply these functions to spatial data detailing the location of such greenspace resources in five British cities. Changes in monetary values are computed for the six future scenarios used in the UK National Ecosystem Assessment for the period 2010–2060. Different degrees of substitutability between urban greenspaces are considered. These findings are then extrapolated to all major British cities to obtain per household and aggregate valuation estimates for each scenario both with and without distributional weights. While subject to a number of shortcomings in both data availability and methodology, this represents the first systematic and comprehensive attempt to value marginal changes in urban greenspace while accounting for spatial heterogeneity.     

Natural land productivity,cooperation and comparative development

This research advances the hypothesis that natural land productivity in the past, and its effect on the desirable level of cooperation in the agricultural sector, had a persistent effect on the evolution of social capital, the process of industrialization and comparative economic development across the globe. Exploiting exogenous sources of variations in land productivity across (a) countries; (b) individuals within a country, (c) migrants of different ancestry within a country, and (d) individuals residing in regions within a country, the research establishes that lower level of land productivity in the past is associated with more intense cooperation and higher levels of contemporary social capital and development.     

Natural resources,education, and economic development

Economic growth since 1965 has varied inversely with the share of natural capital in national wealth across countries. Four main channels of transmission from abundant natural resources to stunted economic development are discussed: (a) the Dutch disease, (b) rent seeking, (c) overconfidence, and (d) neglect of education. Public expenditure on education relative to national income, expected years of schooling for girls, and gross secondary-school enrolment are all shown to be inversely related to the share of natural capital in national wealth across countries. Natural capital appears to crowd out human capital, thereby slowing down the pace of economic development.     

Integrated scenarios of energy-related CO2 emissions in Ireland: A multi-sectoral analysis to 2020

This paper presents future scenarios of Irish energy-related CO₂ emissions to 2020, using a combination of multi-sectoral decomposition analysis with scenario analysis. Alternative development paths, driving forces and sectoral contributions in different scenarios have been explored. The scenarios are quantified by using decomposition analysis as a Divisia Index SCenario GENerator (DISCGEN). The driving forces of population, economic and social development, energy resources and technology and governance and policies are discussed. A set of four integrated or ‘hybrid’ qualitative and quantitative baseline emission scenarios are developed. It is found that sectoral contributions and emissions in each scenario vary significantly. The inclusion of governance, social and cultural driving forces are important in determining alternative development paths and sustainability is crucial. Our empirical results show that decomposition analysis is a useful technique to generate the alternative scenarios.     

International Poverty Comparisons on Unit Record Data of Developing and Developed Countries

Cross country poverty comparisons on unit records have, rarely, involved both developing and developed countries. The present study attempts to fill this gap by comparing poverty across fourteen nations with diverse economic and demographic characteristics and at vastly different stages of economic development. The study contains evidence on (a) cross country variation in the equivalence scales estimated in the presence of both household size economies and adult/child relativities, (b) impact of demographic adjustment of the poverty line, that incorporate household size and composition changes, on the poverty rates, and (c) sensitivity of the poverty estimates and their rankings to the ‘equivalence elasticity’. The study finds that country rankings based on per capita GNP bear very little resemblance with that based on the aggregate poverty rates. The latter hide substantial variation in the poverty estimates across different household types.     

Exploring past and future changes in the ecological footprint for world regions

The Ecological Footprint (EF) has received considerable attention as a useful indicator in the context of sustainable development. So far, it has mostly been applied as a static indicator. Here, we have derived a set of long-term EF scenarios for 17 world regions using the IMAGE 2.2 implementation of the IPCCs SRES scenarios. The scenarios are used to discuss potential trends in EFs in different world regions but also to analyse underlying trends driving changes in the EF. The baseline scenarios show the EF for real land use only (not accounting for CO₂) to increase further in the next few decades in most world regions, being driven by population growth, changes in human diets towards more land-intensive products and overall increases in consumption levels. Future crop yield improvements and technology development will partly offset these trends, resulting in decreasing per capita EFs, but increasing total EFs. In the longer term, EF development may strongly diverge on the basis of assumptions made in the different baseline scenarios (from 5.4 Gha at present to 6.0–8.2 Gha in 2050 depending on the scenario). The aggregated EF following the definition of Wackernagel et al. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 99 (2002) 9266–9271) (including virtual land for CO₂) increases more strongly, from 12.6 to 20–31 Gha depending on the different scenarios. An alternative scenario was developed to explore whether optimistic assumptions for changes in consumption and production patterns could limit the increase of the global EF, which limited EF increase to 15 Gha in 2050. This scenario still allowed for population growth and strong economic development in low-income regions.     

A decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions in the United States

This article decomposes the growth in US CO₂ emissions by state. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, we account for CO₂ emissions change in each state between 1990 and 2004. The change is decomposed into five effects: (a) emissions per unit of fossil fuel; (b) share of fossil fuel in total energy consumption; (c) energy intensity; (d) gross state product per capita and (e) population. Results show that for the past 15 years gains in the efficiency of energy use in the economy, the lowering share of fossil fuels in total energy consumption and lowering of emissions intensity of fuels all contributed to offsetting the effect of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and the population growth in carbon emission across the US.     

Economic valuation of habitat defragmentation: A study of the Veluwe, the Netherlands

This paper offers an economic value assessment of a nature protection programme in the Veluwe, the Netherlands. This programme involves two defragmentation scenarios: the first scenario connects the central part of the Veluwe with river forelands in a north-eastern direction (i.e. the meadows of the IJssel river), while the second scenario is focussed on defragmentation in a south-western direction (i.e. the meadows of the Rhine river). The valuation is based on a questionnaire that was administered during face-to-face interviews in the area and through the Internet. We employ a contingent valuation approach to assess the respondents' willingness to pay for the realisation of the defragmentation scenarios. It appears that the mean willingness to pay (WTP) for the two defragmentation scenarios is € 162.2 (lognormal distribution) per respondent. Because the Veluwe is considered a nature park of national importance, we performed an aggregation of individual WTP estimates over Dutch households. With the resulting aggregate estimates we can compare the total costs and benefits of the two scenarios for habitat defragmentation in the Veluwe. In addition, we test whether respondents value the two scenarios equally. We also check whether the methods of data collection (face-to-face interviews and Internet questionnaires) have distinct influences on the stated WTP responses.     

The effect of sporting success and management failure on attendance demand in the Bundesliga: a revealed and stated preference travel cost approach

This study examines the private consumption benefits of sports attendance using revealed and stated preference data from 28 Football Bundesliga teams across three divisions. Survey respondents were presented with positive (sporting success) and negative (management failure) scenarios and asked for the number of game trips if each scenario occurred. The results of a pooled random effects Poisson model show that travel costs and ticket price have a significant negative effect on the number of home game trips. The weighted consumer surplus per game trip including travel costs and ticket prices is €345. Consumer surplus per game trip was found to change by €41 (first division) and €98 (second and third division) if the positive scenario occurred and by €39 if the negative scenario occurred.     

A coevolutionary model for promoting agricultural sustainability

This article presents a coevolutionary model of agricultural development that is based on observations from the environmental history of agriculture and the need for addressing development processes toward sustainability. It asserts that the challenge of agricultural sustainability can be fruitfully addressed within an analytical framework that consciously and explicitly considers agricultural development as consisting of processes of coevolution involving agriculture and the surrounding ecological and socioeconomic systems. Widening the processes to include strong interconnectedness with national and global systems with respect to off-farm resources and farm outputs has led to various agro-ecological problems. Strengthening local interaction and interconnectedness in a rural-urban context is found to be essential for developing a system of sustainable agriculture. Such development requires influencing many subsystems and implementing changes in production methods and land use as short-term responses to the problem, and technological development, resource allocation and changes in values as long-term responses. It also requires some sustainability principles and indicators in order to direct actions and to facilitate communications, which can be derived from the model. Applying the model on Swedish agricultural sustainability during the twentieth century reveals some, probably, important findings for “building” sustainable agriculture and lends support to the usefulness of the model.     

A model of “coupled” technology transfer : A logistic curve approach

This article presents a mathematical model relating to the technology transfer problem. The origin of the problem stems from the existing trade-offs between the strategies of “technological progressiveness” and “static efficiency” employed by firms or countries defined as “leaders” and “followers,” respectively. The formulation of the model is based on the assumption that the technological development of a firm or a country follows a logistic growth curve when related to a specific technology. During the process of a “coupled” technology transfer, the development of the follower changes and its behavior is described by a first order nonhomogenous deferential equation. Different scenarios of the “coupled” technology transfer between the leader and the follower are being discussed.     

Revisiting incubation performance: How incubator typology affects results

Relevant literature has discussed incubator versus nonincubator firm performance and the characteristics of different types of incubators. However, it has not considered assessing performance individually by archetype. We studied company performance in four archetypal incubators. Performance measures used fall into five categories drawn from literature: a) firm growth b) participation in R&D programs c) Input R&D d) Output R&D e) Employment generation cost. We find there are significant differences in three of the five performance categories among incubator types. We assess the performance of each one by determining whether the objectives for which each was created are met. Private, basic research and University archetypes meet their objectives. Regional development archetype does not.