The Double Dividend of Postponing Retirement

Early retirement seems to plague social security systems in a number of European countries. In this paper we argue that delaying retirement may have two positive effects: it is likely to partially restore the financial balance of the system, and it may foster redistribution among retirees. To obtain such a double dividend, the benefit rule of the initial social security scheme must have the following two characteristics. First, it operates redistribution within generations. Second, it is biased and induces early retirement.     

社会保障对城乡老年人的贫困削减效应

本文利用FGT指数测算了城乡老年人的贫困状况,探讨了社会保障对城乡老年人贫困削减的影响。研究表明:被养老保障覆盖的城乡老年人贫困状况均有明显改善,贫困发生率下降,贫困深度和贫困强度降低;农村医疗保障制度的贫困削减效应要弱于城镇医疗保障制度;得到社会救助的城乡老年人的贫困发生率反而更高,但是,农村社会救助明显降低了农村老年人的贫困深度和贫困强度。计量模型分析表明:养老保障、医疗保障和社会救助均对城镇老年人贫困削减有显著影响,享受养老保障和医疗保障的城镇老年人陷入贫困的概率更小,而享受社会救助的城镇老年人反而更易于陷入贫困;养老保障对农村老年人的贫困削减同样有显著作用,医疗保障和社会救助的影响并不显著。     

改革退休年龄的时机和方案设计——基于陕西省基本养老保险省级统筹运行效果分析

本文从陕西省养老保险省级统筹基金的运行效果入手,说明在现行制度下未来养老基金缺口较大。通过设计改革退休方案,结合未来陕西的退休人口数量,运用定量的分析手法来论证改革退休年龄方案的可行性,希望通过推迟参保职工的退休年龄来增加缴费人数、降低在职人口抚养老年人口的系数,这种减少未来养老金支付压力的做法主要是依靠退休年龄的延迟从而达到纵向的扩面,实现调整,通过循序渐进的方式来逐年缓解基金缺口。     

Voting on Pensions with Endogenous Retirement Age

It is often argued that the observed trend towards early retirement is due mainly to the implicit tax imposed on continued activity of elderly workers. We study the relevance of such a distortion in a political economy model with endogenous age of retirement. The setting is a two-period overlapping generations model. Individuals differ in their productivity. In the first period they work a fixed amount of time; in the second, they choose when to retire and then receive a flat rate pension benefit. Pensions are financed by a payroll tax on earnings in the first and in the second period of life. Such a tax is non distortionary in the first period; it is distortionary in the second period. We allow for some rebating of the second period tax. Individuals vote on the level of the payroll tax given the rebate which can range from 0 (biased system) to 100% (neutral system). We provide sufficient conditions for the existence of a voting equilibrium and study its properties. Under these conditions, high tax rates are supported by all the old and by low productivity young individuals. We show that the pivotal voter is a young individual. The number of young individuals who have higher wage than the pivotal voter equals half the total population. We also show that the introduction of a bias increases the political support for the pension system. Finally, we study the simultaneous determination of the bias and the tax rate through a voting procedure and show that the equilibrium (if any) implies a bias which is always positive and may or not be larger than one.     

The Political Feasibility of Increasing the Retirement Age: Lessons from a Ballot on the Female Retirement Age

In 1998, the Swiss voters approved of an increase in the female retirement age within the public pension system from 62 to 64. The referendum, being on a single issue only, offers a unique opportunity to explore the political feasibility of pension reforms and to apply theoretical models of life-cycle decision making. Estimates carried out with municipality data suggest that the outcome of the vote conforms well with predictions drawn from a theoretical model. Young agents, elderly and—to a lesser extent—middle-aged men favor an increase in female retirement age, while middle-aged women strongly oppose it. Richer communities and those with a high proportion of self-employed or a low fraction of blue-collar workers are more likely to opt for a higher retirement age. Ideological preferences and regional differences also play a considerable role.     

中国养老保险制度改革的政策选择——老龄化、城市化、全球化的视角

中国的养老保险制度改革不仅要考虑到人口老龄化的挑战,还需看到经济全球化提出的要求,以及城市化带来的机遇。本文基于详实的数据和深入的前期研究,指出中国的养老保险制度改革仍然具有一些独特的空间,包括老年劳动参与的提高,劳动生产率的提升,养老保险覆盖面的扩大,保险基金投资回报率的提高等。中国的老龄化发生在经济发展水平相对较低的阶段,在经济全球化时代,需要权衡缴费率和国际竞争力之间的矛盾。与人口老龄化相伴随的是城市化,将农村转移劳动力纳入城镇社会保障体系可以在较长时间内改变体系的负担率,同时农村老年人口绝对数量的下降,也可为政府补贴增长提供条件。长期而言,老龄化社会的养老能力根本上取决于劳动生产率的不断提高。     

试论老年精神保障系统的构建

养老保障应是一个全面的完整的老年人支持体系。"经济支持、生活照料和精神慰藉"是养老的三个基本内容。本文利用国内相关的实证材料和研究以及国外相关的理论和经验对我国老年精神保障的三个争议焦点——现阶段需不需要保、保什么和谁来保进行分析和讨论:(1)需要的满足并不只取决于经济发展水平,还取决于一个社会的文化价值观念和社会发展状况。快速转型所带来的文化和社会结构尤其是家庭结构的变迁削弱了我国传统的老年人精神支持模式。我们应该建立精神保障系统以维护老年人的生存健康和生活质量;(2)老年人是由不同年龄、性别、收入和教育程度等组成的群体,老年人的基本精神需要的界定需建立在社会福利的视角下——适度的、具备一定条件的需要,且与一定的文化和社会结构相适应;(3)结合对福利多元各极在我国老年人精神支持中的作用和现状的分析,我们现阶段应建立一个政府主导的多种社会力量参与的老年精神保障体系。     

我国老年保障研究中的“健康老龄化”研究趋向及其价值

老年保障是面向老年人群的社会保障系统,它的健全与完善对解决我国人口老龄化所带来的相关社会经济发展问题有十分重要的现实意义。而相关政府研究则主要为老年保障建设实践提供理论支撑与决策依据。本文以"健康老龄化"为研究视角,就目前学术界有关老年保障研究中的相关研究成果和重要观点进行梳理和总结。从现有文献来看,学界已提供了较为丰富的理论和实证分析,但也还存在一些不足,尤其是未从统筹角度将健康与养老结合起来进行分析,因此今后有必要将养老与健康纳入一个系统进行综合分析,真正形成医、养间的互通互融,以期为老年保障体系的健全与完善提供理论依据。     

论社会保障

在对美国社会保障制度改革的政策建议中,彼得·戴蒙德教授主张通过养老金相关参数的调整来适应未来养老基金支出增长的压力,方式是改善养老金待遇标准和税收规则以确保养老基金的精算平衡。其基本观点是:第一,社会保障是退休后收入的基础,是防止贫困和失去保险机会的保障,所以社会保障制度应该建立;第二,因为人们很少自愿进行养老金积累,年金化的强制性公共养老金就非常重要,一是能平衡终生收入,二是能够提供就业激励;第三,公共养老金计划对工人及其家庭,特别是儿童、配偶和遗属有重要保障作用;第四,延迟退休能提高未来的消费,设计合理的待遇累进原则和退休审查制度会有助于增加劳动激励;第五,养老金的代际转移是一种再分配,较多的再分配会对工作生涯形成激励;第六,为实现精算平衡,应引入自动平衡机制来自动调整税率和待遇水平,以减少立法的压力。     

社会保障税:优化社会保障筹资模式的最佳选择

由于我国社会保险面临转轨成本、资金缺口和人口老龄化等三重压力,因此,通过依照职工工资总额征收养老保险金、失业保险金、医疗保险金、工伤保险金及生育保险金的方式所筹集的社会保障基金难以满足支出的需求。建议尽快由依靠企业统筹社会保障基金收费过渡到依靠税务机关征收社会保障税,以法律手段取代行政手段。这既是建立稳定的社会保障基金筹资机制、保证社会保障基金稳定来源的必需,也是适应社会主义市场经济发展需要、优化社会保障筹资模式的最佳选择。     

养老社会保障与城镇居民消费：理论分析与实证检验

自20世纪90年代以来,我国城镇居民消费倾向降低和储蓄率不断增加成为不争的事实。我国居民储蓄很大程度上受将来养老金发放以及医疗卫生和教育成本等不确定因素的影响,完善社会保障可以降低这些不确定性,从而促进居民消费。国外学者关于老年消费的研究以及养老社会保障对居民消费和储蓄的影响研究由来已久,并随着消费函数理论和实证研究方法的发展而不断深入。而与其他国家相比,我国养老社会保障现状又具有自身的特殊性,其对消费的影响效应是否与西方学者的研究结果一致？本文采用理论分析和实证研究相结合的方法,在消费函数理论框架内考查我国是否也存在退休消费困境以及养老保障对城镇居民消费的影响。     

基于因子分析法的我国各地区社会保障水平综合评价

社会保障水平直接关系着一个国家人民的生活质量和社会的稳定,社会保障水平的发展不能脱离经济发展和居民生活的需要。目前学术界很多对于社会保障的研究都是从理论角度考虑,但如果能够对社会保障水平进行定量研究,无疑可以从一个新的视角更客观、更科学的把握一个国家、地区的社会保障水平。本文选取了11个影响社会保障发展水平的指标,运用因子分析法建立综合评价模型,对社会保障发展水平进行定量分析和综合评价,我们了解到我国地区间的社会保障水平发展很不平衡。社会保障水平不仅与经济要素相关,同时也受人口结构、投资环境、产业结构等多种因素影响。政府应该积极调整人口结构和产业结构,完善投资环境,同时增加对社会保障的投入来缩小我国地区差异。     

At What Age Do You Expect to Retire? Retirement Expectations and Increases in the Statutory Retirement Age

We analyse the extent to which an increase in the statutory retirement age affects individuals' retirement expectations. Understanding how individuals adjust their expectations is crucial to the evaluation of this policy, since retirement expectations directly affect other important decisions such as labour supply, engagement in (further) education and, of course, savings and investments. We consider the 2007 German pension reform that legislated an increase in the statutory retirement age from 65 years to 67. Our analysis is based on a longitudinal study that directly asks respondents at what age they expect to retire. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach, we look at the changes in subjective retirement expectations over time and estimate the extent to which they can be attributed to the 2007 reform. We find that the reform shifted the retirement expectations of the younger cohorts, although there is some heterogeneity in the way individuals adjusted. While there are no significant differences between men and women, lower‐educated individuals failed to revise their expectations. As these individuals usually acquire both lower pension claims and lower private savings, the fact that they have been slower in updating their retirement expectations causes concern regarding their income security after retirement.     

中国社会保障投入产出效率省际与区域评估——基于2006-2008年省级面板数据

运用DEA对2006-2008三年中国社会保障投入产出状况进行评估。分省和区域对经济财政对社会保障的投入程度,财政社保投入是否扩大当地社保覆盖范围进行衡量和评估。得出我国大部分地区经济财政对社保投入不足,西部地区的投入尤其不足,社保资金利用不合理,财政对社保的投入极少能扩大当地社保的覆盖范围。从促进经济发展、增加财政收入,加大财政对社保支持力度,合理利用社保资金,扩大社保覆盖范围出发,提出了提高中国社会保障投入产出效率的措施。     

美国社会保障制度改革建议与反思

改革社会保障制度并恢复其财务平衡是21世纪美国最重要的公共政策问题之一。为此,美国的政策制定者和学者展开了一场关于社会保障制度改革的激烈争论,并提出了广泛的改革建议。本文在介绍了美国社会保障制度的长期赤字规模之后,分析了造成制度长期赤字的根源,然后重点梳理了2000年以来主要的改革建议,最后通过反思美国社会保障改革的争论得出了几点启示,希冀有助于中国养老社会保险制度的完善和发展。     

Retirement Behaviour in Austria: Effects of Incentives on Old‐Age Labour Supply

We provide an extensive analysis of retirement behaviour in Austria with a special focus on the role of incentives delivered by the tax and benefit system in determining individual retirement decisions. A comprehensive microsimulation model of the Austrian pension system is applied to calculate retirement benefit entitlements and forward‐looking incentive measures (social security wealth, accrual rate, peak and option values) on an individual basis. We use the calculated incentive measures as the main explanatory variables in probit models to explain retirement decisions. We base our microsimulation and estimations on an extensive administrative Austrian data set. These data contain information on more than 300,000 new retirees from the period 2001–11. We provide robust evidence that incentive measures are well suited to explaining individual retirement decisions.     

A Review of Major Influences on Employee Retirement Investment Decisions

The recent retirement plan debacle of the Enron employees has caused regulators and lawmakers to think about new ways to protect and help retirement plan participants. When investigating participant investment decisions, researchers have traditionally studied the retirement plan characteristics and employee characteristics. More recently, some researchers have extended the analysis to social influences, such as social norms and peer affects. Others have expanded into behavioral finance and examined the role of various psychological biases. This paper combines and summarizes these four sets of influences so that researchers and policy makers can better understand all the influences affecting an employee when making retirement plan contribution and investment decisions.     

论社保资金进入证券市场的意义与途径

国企改革的作用越来越被人们所认识，巨大的社会保障支出要求寻找提高社会资金管理效率、使社保资金保值增值的途径。按照国际惯例，社保资金可以由政府控制的中央基金机构管理，也可以交给专业基金管理公司管理。不论采取哪一种管理方式，社保资金进入证券市场都是最有效的途径之一，社保资金进入证券市场不仅实现自身的保值增值还可促进证券市场的健康发展。     

Under threat. Lay thinking about terrorism and the three‐dimensional model of personal involvement: a social psychological analysis

Global ‘standards’ in social security are set by the UN Specialist Agency, the International Labour Organization (ILO). The ILO ‘Standards’ prioritize one model of social security system in particular; namely, contributions‐financed social insurance. Specifically, social insurance systems are designed to mitigate the negative impacts of formal labour market risks. Accordingly, social security systems typically fail to address adequately many informal labour market and nonlabour market risks. The inherently limited focus of social protection provided by many social security systems is recognized to be of major concern for least developed countries (LDCs) in particular for whom western‐centric definitions of life‐cycle risk remain largely inappropriate for the majority. This realization has led the World Bank to experiment with a reconceptualized definition of social protection; Social Risk Management (SRM). Seeking to encourage wider debate across the multidisciplinary field of risk management research, this article outlines critically the tenets underpinning SRM and highlights the policy limitations of this innovative World Bank venture in two key respects. First, by outlining the likely policy implications of World Bank approaches to social protection for global social security standards and practice. Second, by questioning the short‐term contribution that SRM can make to poverty reduction, not least amongst the elderly poor.     

社会保障适度水平的区域比较分析

社会保障水平最早是作为社会保障指标体系中的一个指标出现的,指在一定时期内,一国或地区社会保障支出总额占其生产总值的比重。社会保障水平的测定与研究要求准确地统计出社会保障支出总额。＂社会保障适度水平＂是指通过计算某地区社会保障支出总额Sa占该地区国内生产总值G的百分比,用该指标来衡量社会保障的基本功能是否与当地经济社会发展水平相适应。适度的社会保障水平对国民经济的发展是具有积极作用的。总的来说,我国的社会保障事业近年的发展势头良好,社会化水平不断提高,但社保支出占GDP的比重仍然过小,社会保障水平还有很大的提升空间。