The Contribution of Bioenergy to a New Energy Paradigm

Biomass is a widely available resource that is receiving increased consideration as a renewable substitute for fossil fuels. Developed sustainably and used efficiently, it can induce growth in developing countries, reduce oil demand, and address environmental problems. The potential benefits include: reduction of greenhouse gases, recuperation of soil productivity and degraded land, economic benefits from adding value to agricultural activities and improving access to and quality of energy services. The production of bioenergy involves a range of technologies, including solid combustion, gasification, and fermentation. These technologies produce energy from a diverse set of biological resources - traditional crops, crop residues, energy-dedicated crops, dung, and the organic component of urban waste. The results are bioenergy products that provide multiple energy services: cooking fuel, heat, electricity and transportation fuels. It is this very diversity that holds the potential of a win-win-win for the environment, social and economic development. Bioenergy has to be viewed not as a replacement for oil, but as an element of a portfolio of renewable sources of energy. Coherent and mutually supportive environmental and economic policies may be needed to encourage the emergence of a globally dispersed bioenergy industry that will pursue a path of sustainable development.     

World Energy Outlook 2014 projections to 2040: natural gas and coal trade,and the role of China

The paper presents data and results from the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2014, published by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Over the period to 2040, total energy use is projected to grow by almost 40 per cent, while the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix falls. Nonetheless, these fossil fuels remain the dominant sources of energy, with oil, coal and gas each accounting for around one quarter of global energy needs by 2040. Increasingly, modern renewables are projected to replace fossil fuels, especially in the power sector. Around 93 per cent of the projected increased primary energy demand comes from non‐OECD countries, with two‐thirds coming from developing Asia, led by China. By 2025, China could account for almost a quarter of global energy use, doubling its share since the turn of the century. After 2025, India and other Asian countries surpass China as the main centres of energy demand growth. The IEA's WEO 2014 concludes that even taking into account ambitious policy measures announced as of mid to late 2014, energy growth projections place the world on a path consistent with a long‐term temperature increase of 3.6 degrees. Urgent action is required if the world's energy systems are to be steered towards lower greenhouse gas emissions.     

中国林木生物质能源:现状、障碍及前景

日益增长的化石燃料消费带来的能源安全与环境问题,促使人们去寻找清洁的可再生能源。林木生物质可再生能源是替代化石燃料的一个很好的选择。中国林木生物质能先后经历了解决农村能源以保护森林资源和替代化石燃料以解决环境问题两个阶段。目前中国林木生物质资源种类多、总量大、发展潜力大。但由于没有针对性的林木生物质能源政策,林木生物质原料利用困难重重,产业发展缓慢。针对中国林业经营特点制定专门的产业扶持政策将是今后政策的发展方向。     

Land reuse in support of renewable energy development

Renewable Portfolio Standards are U.S. state-level policies that encourage renewable energy development to meet a proportion of electricity demand. These policies, along with state and federal incentives and private sector demand, have motivated interest in renewable energy capacity, which is a function of available land. As global climate change has been driven by the combination of fossil fuel combustion and land cover change, renewable energy development is best achieved through sustainable land use practices. One option is to site renewable energy installations on land that has been contaminated or degraded. This analysis looks at the degree to which renewable energy demand created by state renewable portfolio standards in the United States could be met by contaminated or formerly contaminated sites. Results suggest that land resources are more than sufficient to meet current and possibly future RPS-generated demand in three out of four regions.     

Digging the backyard: Mining and quarrying in the UK and their impact on future land use

The future demand for land for mining and quarrying will be affected by a large number of economic, technological, environmental and social issues within the UK. Global developments also have a role to play. Although mining and quarrying account for only 0.9 per cent of the land area of England, the impact of this activity is considerable. Minerals are essential to the economy, for energy, construction, infrastructure and manufacturing, while their extraction has effects on the environment and on public perception. This paper examines current scientific understanding of the context of mining and quarrying, with particular reference to its impact on land use, along with the spatial relationship between minerals – which can only be worked where they occur – and other forms of land use and designation in the ‘post-industrial’ landscape of Britain. Looking out to 2060 and beyond, developments which may influence demand for minerals include climate change mitigation and adaptation; energy, food and raw material security; and new construction, manufacturing, recycling and re-use technologies. Factors influencing the supply side include the structure and ownership of the mining and quarrying industry, new extraction, processing and environmental technologies, ecosystem service provision, societal attitudes and land access. Although prediction carries a high level of uncertainty, continuous development of the regulatory framework is, and will remain, a major and pervasive factor in the relationship between mining and quarrying and land use.     

Sequester or substitute—Consequences of increased production of wood based energy on the carbon balance in Finland

Forests play an important role in mitigating climate change. Forests can sequester carbon from the atmosphere and provide biomass, which can be used to substitute for fossil fuels or energy-intensive materials. International climate policies favor the use of wood to substitute for fossil fuels rather than using forests as carbon sink. We examine the trade off between sequestering carbon in forests and substituting wood for fossil fuels in Finland. For Finland to meet its EU targets for the use of renewable energy by 2020, a considerable increase in the use of wood for energy is necessary. We compare scenarios in which the wood energy targets are fully or partially met to a reference case where policies favoring wood based energy production are removed. Three models are used to project fossil fuel substitution and changes in forest carbon sinks in the scenarios through 2035.Finnish forests are a growing carbon sink in all scenarios. However, net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be higher in the medium term if Finland achieves its current wood energy targets than if the use of energy wood stagnates or decreases. The volume of GHG emissions avoided by replacing coal, peat and fossil diesel with wood is outweighed by the loss in carbon sequestered in forests due to increased biomass removals. Therefore, the current wood energy targets seem excessive and harmful to the climate. In particular, biodiesel production has a significant, negative impact on net emissions in the period considered. However, we did not consider risks such as forest fires, wind damage and diseases, which might weaken the sequestration policy. The potential albedo impacts of harvesting the forests were not considered either.     

Future-proofing the farm: On-farm wind turbine development in farm business decision-making

The European Union is committed to increasing the renewable energy produced and consumed within its territory, creating an opportunity and demand for renewable energy production on agricultural land. In this paper, Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB) is utilised to structure qualitative research on the role of renewable energy production in farm business decision-making, through a case study in North East Scotland. Qualitative interviews were undertaken with 23 farmers who had pursued wind energy production, and a further nine key informants. It is found that farmers undertake wind energy production primarily to ‘future proof’ their farms, increasing the long-term economic viability of their farms through business diversification and profitable capital investment. Although environmental considerations were not the primary consideration in turbine development, respondents recognised the energy dependence of farming and the depletion of world energy resources, including these issues in their rationales. The primary obstacles to turbine development focused around economic risks and transaction costs, which some respondents moderated by reducing turbine size or renting land to developers, thus increasing their ‘perceived behavioural control’. Relationships between intention and behaviour are thus found to be multi-directional. The authors argue that on-farm renewable energy production could lead to increased environmental awareness among farmers (and thus more economically and environmentally sustainable agricultural practices), as well as providing a potential economic boost for local economies, but that these opportunities are at risk of being co-opted by large-scale energy companies, which are better able to negotiate the growing complexities and risks of turbine development.     

UK land use and soil carbon sequestration

This review explores the role of land use and land use change as a determinant of the soil's ability to sequester and store carbon in the UK. Over 95 percent of the UK land carbon stock is located in soils which are subjected to a range of land uses and global changes. Land use change can result in rapid soil loss of carbon from peatlands, grasslands, plantation forest and native woodland. Soil carbon accumulates more slowly (decadal) but gains can be made when croplands are converted to grasslands, plantation forest or native woodland. The need for land for food production and renewable forms of energy could have considerable influence on UK soil carbon storage in the future. There is a need to recognise the risk of soil carbon losses occurring when land use change to increase carbon storage is offset by compensatory land use conversions elsewhere that result in net carbon release. The protection of peatland and other organic soil carbon stocks, and the management of cropland, grassland and forest soils to increase carbon sequestration, will be crucial to the maintenance of the UK carbon balance. It will be necessary to develop policy to balance trade-offs between soil carbon gains with other land use priorities. These include the sustainable production of food, bio-energy and fibre crops and livestock, water quality and hydrology, greenhouse gas emission control and waste management, all of which are underpinned by the soil.     

The present and future use of ‘land’ below ground

The world's subsurface space, including Britain's, is already used in a variety of ways, ranging from occupancy to disposal and the bulk storage of materials and fuels. In the future it is likely that it will be put to further use in response to trends in technology, resource supply and demand, socioeconomics and geopolitics. Here the present and future uses of underground space, and the potential planning and social issues affecting its development, are reviewed. Future uses are likely to be in the area of increasing occupancy (both commercial and residential), the secure storage of documents and data, the storage of carbon dioxide for carbon abatement, natural gas, compressed air stores of energy from traditional and renewable sources, the use of underground heat in buildings and the proposed deep geological disposal of radioactive waste. The article will also explore pressure points and challenges. These will include the regulation of multiple uses of subsurface storage space and, for projects of national importance including natural gas and radioactive waste storage, legislation to lessen the effect of local opposition relative to the ‘national need’. This article does not discuss future mining, hydrocarbon extraction, or water resources.     

International perspectives on future land use

The different approaches that other countries take to land use reflect many national variables, including planning systems, institutional structures, socio-cultural characteristics, population pressures and environmental priorities. Literature reviews of relevant land-use issues in Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Sweden provided the background material for this paper. Other European countries appear to offer models of more pro-active and indicative land-use planning, in contrast to the adversarial system in the UK, and a much stronger regional focus. This seems to have made it easier to implement other policies, for example on renewable energy. Experience with liberalisation of agricultural markets, and the promotion of environmentally sustainable farming are both relevant to an increasingly polarised agricultural sector in the UK. Cutting across all these themes is a reflection on governance of land use. Of the countries considered, Sweden's focus on environmental sustainability, international responsibility and long-term consistency of direction appears to be most closely aligned to the coming land-use challenges. When drawing conclusions from this review it is important to bear in mind the effect of differences in bio-geographic factors, socio-economic conditions and political culture, both in other countries and within the UK.     

On the rebound: estimating direct rebound effects for Australian households

Reducing dependence on fossil fuels by decreasing energy consumption is a common environmental policy. One mechanism used to achieve this is to encourage increased energy efficiency. However, improving efficiency may have an opposing effect and cause an increase in energy consumption if the intensity of use changes. This phenomenon is known as the rebound effect. We estimate direct rebound effects for energy use in Australia based on both aggregate residential energy use data and on household energy expenditure data. Our approach implements a new methodology developed by Hunt and Ryan (2014, Catching on the rebound: Why price elasticities are generally inappropriate measures of rebound effects. Surrey Energy Economics Discussion Paper Series SEEDS 148; 2015, Energy Economics 50, 273) that explicitly relates energy service use with energy source demand and directly incorporates measures of efficiency changes. The results indicate that the rebound effect is relatively high for energy use by Australian households. Due to the unique nature of our household data set, we can examine the influence of demographic and housing characteristics. We find that low‐income households and households with vulnerable members have the largest rebound effects. The relatively large rebound effects found here suggest that consumers gain from efficiency by improved energy services, and thus, policy targeting energy efficiency is not likely to be successful at reducing energy consumption.     

FELLOWS ADDRESS California Dreaming: The Economics of Renewable Energy

California was the first jurisdiction to mandate a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. This target was subsequently endorsed by the G8 in 2009 and the European Commission in 2014, and is the guiding principle of the 2015 Paris Agreement. To achieve these targets will require near elimination of fossil fuels and/or a technological breakthrough that might be considered a black swan event. Eschewing nuclear power, countries are relying on renewable energy sources to meet future energy needs. In this paper, I examine the prospects of reducing GHG emissions by 80% by first summarizing extant global energy sources and production, trends, and projections of energy demand, and the potential mix of future energy sources. I consider the role of conservation and then focus on the electricity sector to determine how wind and biomass could contribute to the 80% target. I conclude that these ambitious targets cannot be attained without nuclear power.     

劳动力转移下不同生计农户低碳用能影响因素以浙豫陕3省农户为例

目的 农户用能的低碳转型对推进我国能源消费革命、缓解能源贫困和减少环境污染具有重要意义。方法 文章利用“劳动力转移与农村生活能源”2018年专项调查数据并采用多元线性及Logit回归模型考察劳动力转移下不同生计农户低碳用能影响因素。结果 劳动力转移程度及性别对一兼户低碳用能有显著负向影响，而劳动力转移空间对其有显著正向影响；劳动力转移程度及空间对二兼户低碳用能有显著正向影响，而劳动力转移性别对其有显著负向影响；劳动力转移程度、空间及性别对非农户低碳用能均有显著正向影响；户主受教育水平对4类农户高质商品用能有显著正向影响，而能源价格对其有显著负向影响；户主年龄、耕地面积对4类农户新型可再生能源选择有显著负向影响。结论 在乡村振兴战略进程中劳动力转移能够促进农户生活用能向可持续低碳转型，户主受教育水平、户主年龄、能源价格及耕地面积的影响不容忽视；科学引导劳动力转移及低碳用能亟待加强。     

Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

This study uses resource‐based measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. China's dietary shift from plant to animal‐based foods, induced by its income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. China's demand for food on this measure appears consistent with global trends, while China is an out‐performer on the supply side, producing much more food than its income level and land endowment would predict. China's current per capita income is in a range where consumption growth is high and in excess of production growth, but the gap between supply and demand is likely to diminish as population and per capita consumption growth decelerate. Continuing agricultural productivity growth and sustainable resource management will be important influences on the growth of China's future net import demand for food.     

Agriculture and land use: Demand for and supply of agricultural commodities,characteristics of the farming and food industries,and implications for land use in the UK

Agriculture is the largest type of land use in the UK, accounting for about 77 per cent of the total area, compared with an average 50 per cent for the EU27. But in common with most high-income countries, agriculture's contribution to UK GDP and employment is low, at about 0.5 and 1.8 per cent, respectively, although the regional importance of the sector (and its associated food and farming industries) varies considerably.Of the 17.5 million ha used for agriculture, about 28 per cent is allocated to crops, and 67 per cent is grassland. The grassland includes 4.4 million ha of sole-owned rough grazing and 1.1 million ha of common land in mainly upland “disadvantaged areas,” primarily used for beef and sheep production. This has a major influence on land use, especially in the northern and western parts of the UK.From the 1930s until the mid-1980s, UK policy promoted increases in agricultural productivity to feed the nation from its own resources. An array of income and production support measures encouraged intensive farming, including a relative switch to arable farming in eastern areas. Since the early-1990s, policies have sought simultaneously to make UK agriculture internationally competitive and environmentally benign. These policies, evident in the Agenda 2000 Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy, point the way forward for the future. It is likely that a greater distinction will emerge between policies to protect natural resources and enhance the flow of non-market ecosystem services from rural land, and agriculture and food policies intended to encourage an appropriate proportion of national food requirements to be met from domestic sources.It seems likely that over the next 50 years, the UK's land area will be required to deliver an increasingly diverse range of private and public goods to meet growing human needs and aspirations. This will require a balance of policy-driven goals and market forces. It will also need a much improved understanding of the trade-offs between food production and environmental goals and of the institutional arrangements required to achieve a balance of economic, social and environmental outcomes.     

Management of petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites in Nigeria: Current challenges and future direction

Sites affected by petroleum hydrocarbons from oil exploitation activities have been identified as a major environmental and socio-economic problem in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The current Nigerian regulatory instruments to manage these contaminated sites are fragmented and the roles and responsibilities of government agencies, such as the Department for Petroleum Resources (DPR), and the National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA), are not well defined. This lack of coordination has led to ineffective land contamination policy and poor enforcement more generally. Appropriate, risk-based policy instruments are needed to improve regulatory capacity, and to enhance the regulator's ability to manage new and existing petroleum hydrocarbons contaminated sites. Lessons can be learned from countries like the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States America (USA) that have experience with the management and clean up of historically contaminated land. In this paper, we review the status of petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated sites management in Nigeria and identify the gaps in existing policy and regulation. We review the contaminated land policies and regulation from the UK and the USA, and identify lessons that could be transferred to the Nigerian system. Finally, we provide a series of recommendations (e.g. source – pathway-receptor approach, soil screening criteria, clean-up funding, liability) that could enhance contaminated land legislation in Nigeria.     

应用组合模型对河南省碳排放量的预测

过多依赖化石能源的消费,进而引起全球气候的问题越来越严重。中国经济的快速发展所伴随的高耗能产业等对化石燃料的消耗,成为当前发展低碳经济的重要阻碍。河南省作为发展中原经济区的一个非常重要的成员,对于中国的低碳经济发展起到非常重要的作用。本文在对河南省碳排放量测算的基础上,并对未来几年的碳排放量的进行预测,并提出合理建议。     

生物质成型燃料产业发展前景分析

生物质成型燃料是一种高效的清洁能源,可以替代化石燃料,缓解人类面临的能源危机和环境困境。文章分析了产业发展的原料资源、成型技术、市场需求、成本-效益及政策支撑等优势。结果表明,在我国发展生物质成型燃料产业是可行的。同时,探讨产业发展面临的各种障碍,提出解决成型机生产技术瓶颈、用户环保意识与产品认知度薄弱、产业政策过于宏观等问题的策略建议。     

The future of the uplands

Upland areas provide UK society with many important functions, goods and services, but have experienced a number of disturbing trends and face an uncertain future. This paper outlines historic, current and future drivers of environmental, economic, socio-cultural and policy change in UK uplands, and assesses how these have affected or are likely to affect ways in which land is used and the provision of ecosystem services. Information is synthesised into scenarios summarising a range of possible futures anticipated for UK uplands to 2060 and beyond. Finally, innovations in science, technology, governance and policy are evaluated that could enable uplands to continue providing key ecosystem services under a range of scenarios. The paper concludes that many upland areas will need to be prepared for significant reductions in grazing and prescribed burning. Conversely, other areas could experience agricultural intensification, for example significant increases in grazing or an expansion of arable or bioenergy crops into upland valleys, due to anticipated increases in global demand for food and energy. These scenarios will take place in the context of climate change. Many may take place together and may interact with each other, with complex and unpredictable implications for the upland environment, economy and society. In this context, a number of advances are needed in science, technology and policy to maintain viable upland communities and the future provision of ecosystem services. These may include funding for ecological and hydrological restoration via carbon offsetting or other means. It may also involve advances in ecosystem service modelling, mapping and valuation, which through stakeholder participation could facilitate more integrated rural planning. New forms of environmental governance need to be explored that can empower those interested in developing upland economies to maintain thriving upland communities, while managing the ecosystem services they provide as efficiently as possible.     

Urbanization strategies, rural development and land use changes in China: A multiple-level integrated assessment

This paper links urbanization strategies to changes in land use and associated impacts on rural communities and agro-ecosystems in a rural area of China. Energy, monetary and human time variables as well as information on environmental pressures, have been combined to compare different typologies of households and the metabolism of different patterns of land use from an integrated perspective. The results show that urbanization strategies, aimed at shifting the current land use and at displacing the local population, while increasing the economic efficiency is also associated with an increase in fossil energy consumption and environmental pressure, as well as a reduction of the multifunctional characteristic of the area under investigation. Based on these findings the paper also offers a critical discussion of the Chinese rural development policy arguing that the multifunctionality of rural areas should be taken into account by Chinese policy-makers and planners as a viable strategy to achieve rural development targets.