Sweetness and Power – Public Policies and the ‘Biofuels Frenzy’

Sweetness and Power – Public Policies and the ‘Biofuels Frenzy’ In the last decade, there has been a huge policy‐led expansion in biofuels production and consumption. This paper presents some of the findings of a funded research project which has sought to identify the drivers of biofuels policies over this period. It focuses on the EU, US and Brazil which, together, represent about 90 per cent of global biofuels markets. Biofuels policies have three key drivers: as a partial substitute for fossil fuels, to lower greenhouse gas emissions; as a way of improving energy security, by diversifying away from fossil fuels and from the limited number of countries with fossil‐fuel reserves; and as a means of promoting rural development, given the opportunities offered by the production of biofuel feedstocks and their processing into biofuels. One particular challenge for both the EU and US has been to create and sustain a broad coalition of stakeholder interests in support of biofuels and biofuel policies. Both have sought to promote ‘conventional’ biofuels now, whilst trying to aid the development of ‘advanced’ biofuels industries that will address problems with existing technologies. The continued failure to deliver significant quantities of advanced biofuels raises questions for biofuels policymakers going forward, not least dealing with the downsides of conventional biofuels that, so far, have not been mitigated by a successful transition to advanced biofuels.     

FELLOWS ADDRESS California Dreaming: The Economics of Renewable Energy

California was the first jurisdiction to mandate a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. This target was subsequently endorsed by the G8 in 2009 and the European Commission in 2014, and is the guiding principle of the 2015 Paris Agreement. To achieve these targets will require near elimination of fossil fuels and/or a technological breakthrough that might be considered a black swan event. Eschewing nuclear power, countries are relying on renewable energy sources to meet future energy needs. In this paper, I examine the prospects of reducing GHG emissions by 80% by first summarizing extant global energy sources and production, trends, and projections of energy demand, and the potential mix of future energy sources. I consider the role of conservation and then focus on the electricity sector to determine how wind and biomass could contribute to the 80% target. I conclude that these ambitious targets cannot be attained without nuclear power.     

The evolution of foreign wine demand in China

We estimate source‐differentiated wine demand in China using the absolute price version of the Rotterdam demand system. Within the last decade, China has gone from obscurity to an important participant in global wine trade. The continual growth of Chinese wine imports suggests that a one‐time structural shift approach may not fully capture how consumption patterns or demand preferences have changed over time. Thus, a rolling or moving regression procedure is used to account for continual adjustments in import demand patterns and to evaluate overall parameter instability. Our results confirm that Chinese consumers hold French wine in high regard and that French wine demand has consistently increased over the last decade, more than any other exporting source. Consumers in China have gone from allocating about 1/3 to over 1/2 of every dollar to French wine and the expenditure elasticity for French wine mostly increased while the market was expanding. Although Australian wine has a very solid standing in the Chinese market, results suggest that its market share will likely remain unchanged. Marginal budget share and expenditure elasticity estimates indicate that Australia will continue to account for about 20 per cent of the foreign wine market in China.     

On the rebound: estimating direct rebound effects for Australian households

Reducing dependence on fossil fuels by decreasing energy consumption is a common environmental policy. One mechanism used to achieve this is to encourage increased energy efficiency. However, improving efficiency may have an opposing effect and cause an increase in energy consumption if the intensity of use changes. This phenomenon is known as the rebound effect. We estimate direct rebound effects for energy use in Australia based on both aggregate residential energy use data and on household energy expenditure data. Our approach implements a new methodology developed by Hunt and Ryan (2014, Catching on the rebound: Why price elasticities are generally inappropriate measures of rebound effects. Surrey Energy Economics Discussion Paper Series SEEDS 148; 2015, Energy Economics 50, 273) that explicitly relates energy service use with energy source demand and directly incorporates measures of efficiency changes. The results indicate that the rebound effect is relatively high for energy use by Australian households. Due to the unique nature of our household data set, we can examine the influence of demographic and housing characteristics. We find that low‐income households and households with vulnerable members have the largest rebound effects. The relatively large rebound effects found here suggest that consumers gain from efficiency by improved energy services, and thus, policy targeting energy efficiency is not likely to be successful at reducing energy consumption.     

Critical issues suggested by trends in food,population, and the environment to the year 2020

This article reviews the emerging trends in global food supply and demand up to 2020, and discusses policy challenges and obstacles to meeting this demand. Data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Commodities and Trade (Rosegrant et al.). The country-specific data pertains to 37 countries and regions and 17 food commodities and prices in the world market. Cereal prices are expected to decline by about 11% by 2020; meat prices may decline by 6%. After 2010, cereal prices are expected to dramatically decline. Cereal demand will change with changes in income and urbanization. Maize and coarse grains will be replaced by wheat and rice. Life style changes may lead to a switch from rice to wheat. Growth in food consumption in developed countries will slow. A projected 82% of growth in global cereal consumption and almost 90% of increased global meat demand will occur in developing countries during 1993-2020. Asia alone will account for 48% of increased cereal consumption and 61% of increased meat consumption. 88% of food production growth will occur in developing countries through increased yields and 94% in developed countries. World trade in cereals will increase from an estimated 185 million metric tons annually to 328 million during 1993-2020. Food security for the poor and child malnutrition will remain unimproved. Yield growth is affected by agricultural research, fertilizer and energy use, land degradation, water scarcity, and bad policy. Water scarcity is the most limiting on yield growth. Malnutrition problems present multiple challenges.     

The impact of sustainable energy production on land use in Britain through to 2050

Historically, land use in Britain has been shaped by the environment's capacity to provide energy as well as food, water and shelter. Over the next decades, energy will again become a major driver in land cover change as we seek to capture the necessary energy to replace fossil fuels, reduce environmental damage and substitute for insecure supplies. Britain was one of the first places to exploit fossil fuels extensively, initially coal, and it has the potential to generate considerable amounts of renewable energy from tides, waves, the wind, biomass and sunlight. The UK Government's policy is to develop a suite of technologies that will provide a resilient supply without compromising its economy or its international commitments to environmental protection.This paper examines the three major terrestrial options for renewable energy and assesses each by successively filtering them for feasibility, achievability and practicality incorporating existing developments, designation and public opinion. Technology and opinion are dynamic, so the outputs need to be viewed as indicative of alternative scenarios rather than as fixed forecasts. Implications for changes in the energy supply infrastructure needed to match the new supply chains are highlighted.The demand for energy depends on the demographic profile (population size, age distribution, lifestyle and expectations) and on economic activity. Here total demand is predicted using the UK Energy Research Centre's Energy 2050 model, which uses linear programming to balance economics and environmental capacity by major demand sectors in five-year time steps. The core model often generates challenging results.     

China feels the heat: negative impacts of high temperatures on China's rice sector

We analysed a county‐level data set of single‐season rice yield and daily weather outcomes in China to examine the effects of temperature on China's rice sector. We found that rice yield exhibited highly nonlinear responses to temperature changes: rice yield increased with temperature up to 28°C and decreased sharply with higher temperatures. Holding current growing seasons and regions constant, average rice yield in China is projected to decrease by 10–19 per cent by 2050 and 11–33 per cent by 2070 due to future warming under the global climate models HadGEM2‐ES and NorESM1‐M. These results imply that future warming poses a major challenge for Chinese rice farmers and that the effectiveness of adaptations will depend on how well they reduce the negative temperature impacts on rice yield because of very hot days.     

中国林木生物质能源:现状、障碍及前景

日益增长的化石燃料消费带来的能源安全与环境问题,促使人们去寻找清洁的可再生能源。林木生物质可再生能源是替代化石燃料的一个很好的选择。中国林木生物质能先后经历了解决农村能源以保护森林资源和替代化石燃料以解决环境问题两个阶段。目前中国林木生物质资源种类多、总量大、发展潜力大。但由于没有针对性的林木生物质能源政策,林木生物质原料利用困难重重,产业发展缓慢。针对中国林业经营特点制定专门的产业扶持政策将是今后政策的发展方向。     

The impact of increasing non-agricultural market access on EU demand for imported fish: implications for Lake Victoria chilled fillet exports

Import demand functions for origin-specific chilled fish filletsto the EU using a Rotterdam-type production model are estimated.Results are used to project the impact of the EU expanding marketaccess to non-African countries. The preference erosion argumentsuggests that the lower tariffs will erode the competitive positionof African countries; however, when the total impact of pricesis considered, expanding preferential access may result in increasedimports from African countries. If tariffs are reduced to zero,the total EU imports are projected to increase by 4.1 per centresulting in a 2.2 per cent increase in chilled fillet importsfrom Lake Victoria.     

Economic development,food demand and the consequences for agricultural resource requirements: an application to Indonesia

We analyse food demand patterns of Indonesian households from a resource intensity perspective and quantify the impact of changed demand patterns on the use of three major resource inputs: fossil fuel; land; and water in agricultural production. Using Indonesian Family Life Survey data, 13 major food items (which constitute 70 per cent of food expenditure) are categorised into low, moderate and high resource intensity, and income elasticity and Engel curves are estimated for the period from 1997 to 2007. Our results show that income growth in Indonesia is associated with demand patterns that are more resource intensive. By 2007, per capita requirements of fossil fuel, land and water increased by 42.7 per cent (3.13 MJ), 44.9 per cent (1.24 m²) and 50.4 per cent (2.1 kL), respectively, relative to 1997. The results imply that, at least for Indonesia, changed food demand patterns resulting from economic development will increase the demand for natural resources substantially.     

EU Biofuels Sustainability Standards and Certification Systems – How to Seek WTO‐Compatibility

Governments, increasingly, are encouraging the production and consumption of biofuels, as a partial substitute for fossil‐fuel based transport fuels. One reason for this is to contribute to the fight against climate change. Sustainability criteria have been introduced recently by some countries to help ensure biofuels have lower greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuels. Concerns have been expressed from various quarters that such criteria could represent World Trade Organisation (WTO)‐incompatible barriers to trade. We, first, question recent contributions to the (mainly legal) academic literature which have sought to find ways of allowing biofuels to be treated differently in trade policy terms, based on whether or not they have been derived from feedstocks produced sustainably. We then draw on the Technical Barriers to Trade Agreement (TBTA) to offer guidance as to how to establish WTO‐compatible sustainability criteria. There is little direct case law to draw on at the design stage, but we argue that if TBTA guidance is followed, a long‐term absence of case law could be taken as an indication that the sustainability criteria established are indeed WTO‐compatible.     

Asia–Pacific food markets and trade in 2005: a global, economy–wide perspective

Rapid industrialization in East Asia, particularly China, is raising questions about who will feed the region in the next century and how Asia will be able to pay for its food imports. The paper first reviews existing food sector projections and then takes an economy–wide perspective using projections to 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. After showing the impact of implementing the Uruguay Round, the paper explores several alternative scenarios. A slowdown in farm productivity growth is shown to be costly to the world economy, as is slower economic growth in China. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries would reduce East Asia's industrialization and thereby slow its net imports of food. On the other hand, the trade reform that is likely to accompany China's (and hence Taiwan's) membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO) adds 30 per cent to estimated global gains from the Uruguay Round. Their WTO accession is projected to boost exports of manufactures and strengthen food import demand by not only China but also its densely populated neighbours with whom it trades intensively.     

应用组合模型对河南省碳排放量的预测

过多依赖化石能源的消费,进而引起全球气候的问题越来越严重。中国经济的快速发展所伴随的高耗能产业等对化石燃料的消耗,成为当前发展低碳经济的重要阻碍。河南省作为发展中原经济区的一个非常重要的成员,对于中国的低碳经济发展起到非常重要的作用。本文在对河南省碳排放量测算的基础上,并对未来几年的碳排放量的进行预测,并提出合理建议。     

全球钨消费历史分析及需求预测

文章基于全球钨消费增长缓慢,美国、日本和欧盟钨消费趋于平稳,中国钨需求增速放缓的背景,通过分析全球钨消费历史和消费结构,运用情景分析方法,参考"S"形消费规律,对中国及全球钨需求进行定量预测。预测到2025年全球钨需求为11万吨,2021—2030年中国钨需求为94万吨。依据我国钨基础储量数据,判断当前我国和全球钨资源供应宽松。建议保持适度钨资源供给,提升行业盈利水平。     

Factors influencing hybrid rice adoption: a Bangladesh case

As rice constitutes the major share in cereal consumption in South and East Asian countries that ranges from as low as 40 per cent in India to 97 per cent in Myanmar, to ensure food security, governments in these countries are encouraging farmers to adopt hybrid rice. This is mainly because hybrid rice provides a yield gain of 15–20 per cent over conventionally bred varieties in general. Yet, despite strenuous government efforts, farmers’ adoption rates have remained low in India, Bangladesh and Vietnam compared with China. Although studies often claim that higher seed costs and inferior grain quality are the major factors limiting hybrid rice adoption, very few studies examine the importance of socio‐economic factors and infrastructure in the adoption of hybrid rice. Using Bangladesh as a case, a comparative analysis has been made on the adoption of hybrid and modern varieties relative to traditional rice varieties and land allocation to these varieties. Econometric results indicate that general land characteristics, loan facilities and general infrastructure, such as roads, irrigation facilities and the availability of government‐approved seed dealers, significantly influence the adoption of hybrid and modern rice varieties and land allocation to these varieties compared with traditional varieties.     

我国西北平原区农村生活能源消费和供需结构分析

[目的]明确我国西北平原区农村生活能源需求总量、消费结构和供给模式,为该区域乃至全国的农村能源消费供给结构和模式调整提供理论依据。[方法]运用描述统计法,以1991~2014年《全国农村可再生能源统计汇总表》中的数据为基准,分析比较了我国西北平原区7个省(自治区)农村地区共24年商品能源(煤炭、电力、石油、液化石油气、天然气、煤气)、非商品能源(秸秆、薪柴、沼气、太阳能)消费和能源(煤炭、焦炭、成品油、电力、薪柴)生产间的相互关系和变化趋势。[结果]西北平原区商品能源在能源消费中的比例在65%左右,并保持稳定增长;西北平原区以煤炭为主的能源消费格局稳定,沼气和太阳能等清洁能源消费量逐年提高;因经济发展速度、产业结构等因素的差异,导致我国西北平原区不同地区农村能源消费结构表现出明显的不同;我国西北平原区的主要能源生产与消费差额呈负值,近4年差额稳定在年平均负1 294.40万t标准煤。[结论]该区域能源供需不平衡问题一直存在,建议未来结合新型城镇化建设的要求,因地制宜促进能源结构调整,保障资源的可持续利用和发展。     

Evaluating the impact of rising fertilizer prices on crop yields

Because of tensions on fossil energy and phosphorus markets, the rise in fertilizer prices observed during the last decades may continue in the future, putting into question production pathways relying heavily on crop intensification. To evaluate how, in this context, economic choices may alter crop yields, we first construct different fertilizer price scenarios to 2050 based on an econometric relation with oil and gas prices. Other possible scenarios, such as the continuation of historical trends, are also considered. The resulting changes in fertilizer price range between +0.8% and +3.6% per year over the 2005–2050 period. These scenarios are tested in a global land‐use model incorporating an endogenous representation of the land–fertilizer substitution. We find that the supply‐side response to rising fertilizer prices could lower crop yields in 2050 from ?6% to ?13%, with a corresponding increase in global cropland area ranging between 100 and 240 Mha if the demand for food and nonfood products has to be met. The sensitivity of these results is tested with regard to assumptions on food consumption, change in potential yield and nutrient use efficiency.     

全球油气资源形势与发展趋势

根据对国际能源署关于全球石油天然气资源的分布情况及产销供需情况资料的分析可知,世界石油天然气资源丰富,可满足未来20—30年左右世界经济发展的需要,未来油气资源无论是供给还是需求均呈稳定增长态势,油气价格将在波动中上升,维持高位运行,亚太地区国家石油安全形势更加严峻,由于世界油气资源分布极不均衡,油气资源作为世界重要战略资源的地位在未来20—30年内将不会改变,并仍将是国家和地区间经济争夺的焦点。     

Sustainable power plants: A support tool for the analysis of alternatives

Shortage of fossil fuels and global oil crisis are leading many national energy authorities to switch from traditional fuels to other renewable ones. On the other hand, in several western countries – due to an increasing environmental awareness – public acceptance of traditional power plants (e.g., coal or fired oil) is steadily decreasing, mostly because of their significant environmental pressures. Decision makers’ activities need to be supported by objective tools, which must be designed to be able to select the best alternative in order to achieve some prefixed goals. Therefore, in the present study, a tool is proposed to support decision makers: it is based on Life Cycle Assessment data from seven different power plants (coal, fired oil, fired gas, nuclear, wind, solar and hydroelectric), to understand what is taken into in terms of material fluxes, and how much it costs in a specific context. Consequently, an Analytic Hierarchy Process has been proposed to select which one might be the best alternative in function of the considered scale and ten environmental criteria. The proposed procedure aims to evaluate different power plants and identify the most environmentally sustainable one in function of plant construction and operation phases.     

Measuring agricultural total factor productivity in China: pattern and drivers over the period of 1978‐2016

The Chinese agricultural sector has experienced a substantial increase in total output since dramatic reforms were introduced in 1978. This paper uses the index method to measure agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) for China’s crop and livestock industries, based on the gross output model from 1978 to 2016. We construct production accounts for the industries using input‐output relationships for the 26 main agricultural commodities and commodity groups, which account for over 90 per cent of the total agricultural inputs and outputs. The results show that China’s agricultural TFP grew at a rate of approximately 2.4 per cent a year before 2009, which is comparable to the main OECD countries and is double the world average. TFP growth accounts for approximately 40 per cent of output growth, suggesting that input growth was the main driver of output growth in the past. However, average productivity growth slowed down after 2009 though it has gradually recovered since 2012. The slowdown reflects the emerging challenges to existing farm production practices in Chinese agriculture, suggesting the need for further institutional reform.