Competition and Profitability in European Banking: Why Are British Banks So Profitable?

Substantial differences remain between the profitability of banks in different European countries. This article considers the relationship between competition and profitability in European banking focussing on the experience of the UK where two issues are considered: why British banks have been earning excess returns for more than a decade and why British banks seem to be more profitable than their Continental counterparts. A paradigm is offered to explain this. A distinction is made between shareholder value (SHV) and stakeholder value (STV) banks whose business objectives are often different. Significant differences exist between European countries in the balance of SHV and STV banks. The UK is almost unique in Europe in having almost exclusively SHV‐based banks. Pressures will intensify for all European banks to adopt SHV strategies, which will imply substantial changes in bank strategies and business operations .     

信用风险模型的新发展与商业银行风险管理

信用风险是商业银行面临的主要风险之一,其直接影响商业银行持续经营的能力。《新巴塞尔资本协议》鼓励商业银行在进行信用风险管理时更多地使用内部模型,这意味着建立有效的信用风险模型应成为商业银行的重要任务。中国银行业要健康、稳定地发展,需要借鉴西方信用风险模型,对风险进行科学管理。     

Corporate governance and efficiency in banking: evidence from emerging economies

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the impact of corporate governance on bank efficiency across a sample of 139 commercial banks from 17 countries of Central and Eastern Europe during the period 2005–2012. Data on governance characteristics are hand-collected from banks’ reports. The empirical findings indicate that implementing rigorous corporate governance structures is associated with higher costs for banks and a lower level of efficiency. However, during the crisis, a tight governance mechanism significantly increases banks’ cost and technical efficiencies. We also show that prudent risk management is associated with both higher cost and technical efficiency for more capitalized banks, while rigid supervisory boards are linked with greater technical efficiency for more capitalized banks.     

Monetary policy and bank lending in a low interest rate environment: Diminishing effectiveness?

This paper analyses the effectiveness of monetary policy on bank lending in a low interest rate environment. Based on a sample of 108 large international banks, our empirical analysis suggests that monetary policy is less effective in stimulating bank lending growth when interest rates reach a very low level. This result holds after controlling for business and financial cycle conditions and different bank-specific characteristics such as liquidity, capitalisation, funding costs, bank risk and income diversification. We find that the impact of low rates on the profitability of banks’ traditional intermediation activity helps explain the subdued evolution of lending in the period 2010–14.     

基于分位数回归商业银行系统性风险研究

在宏观审慎监管框架下,对系统重要性银行的识别并对其提出更高监管要求是金融危机后的监管重点。文章选取代表不同类型的8家上市商业银行为样本银行,采用CoVaR模型和分位数回归技术对2007-2011年实体经济和金融数据进行实证分析。实证表明:从流动性方面看,资产规模较大的银行反而面临更高的流动性风险,其风险溢出效应更容易导致系统性风险的聚集,发生危机时对系统性风险贡献较大;在宏观经济周期逆转时,中小型银行相对大型银行更容易出现风险溢出效应导致系统性风险聚集;因此政策建议:银行业监管当局的监管重点在传统的资产规模庞大的银行,同时也要关注银行业务增长过快的中小银行,这些银行往往也是系统性风险聚集和金融危机爆发的始作俑者。     

基于可信性理论的中小企业信贷风险评估

商业银行是中小企业最重要的外部融资渠道,但限于信息不对称等因素的制约,商业银行对中小企业的授信额度远不能满足其发展的需要.在此背景下,对中小企业的信贷风险进行科学评估,增强商业银行授信的安全性,是有效解决其融资难的重要措施.通过采用公理化的可信性测度和经典的层次分析法,本文构建一个基于可信性理论的风险评估模型.模型在评估多层次风险指标时,能够避免选取隶属函数存在主观性的问题.此外,可信性测度具有自对偶性,使得模型的评估结果更容易理解和接受.针对信贷风险多因素的复杂性,建立了商业银行信贷风险评估的多层次指标体系,并运用本文所提出的风险评估模型对中小企业的信贷风险进行评估,实例证明该模型的可行性与有效性.     

Bank ownership structure,lending corruption and the regulatory environment

We empirically examine whether bank lending corruption is influenced by the ownership structure of banks, a country’s regulatory environment and its level of economic development. We find that corruption in lending is higher when state-owned banks or family-owned banks provide a higher proportion of credit to the economy, in both developed and developing countries. A stronger regulatory environment, either through a stronger supervisory regime or a higher quality of external audits, helps to curtail bank lending corruption if induced by family-controlled ownership, but not if induced by state-controlled ownership. We further find that controlled-ownership of banks by other banks contributes to reduce corruption in lending; the same applies to widely-held ownership of banks, but only for developed countries.     

发展非利息业务对银行收益和风险的影响*——基于我国49家商业银行的实证研究

本文基于我国2005-2014年49家商业银行的面板数据,分别从收益因素、风险因素及收益风险综合因素方面,分析非利息业务对于不同类型商业银行收益和风险的影响。实证结果表明,从全部银行样本来看,非利息业务发展对于收益和经风险调整后的收益有显著正向影响,且收益提高主要源于手续费和佣金业务,但对风险影响不显著;对于国有银行,非利息业务的发展在增加了收益的同时也提高了风险,收益提高主要来源为手续费和佣金,风险增加主要来源是其他非利息收入;对于全国性股份制商业银行和城市商业银行,非利息业务的发展对收益、风险和经风险调整后的收益都没有明显影响;对于农村商业银行,非利息业务的发展降低了银行风险,且银行风险降低主要源于手续费和佣金业务,但对收益和经风险调整后的收益影响并不显著。     

Does a bank's business model affect its capital and profitability?

We use a data-driven classification of systemically important European banks into business models based on confidential granular supervisory data and investigate whether banks following different models differ with respect to their capitalisation and profitability. Our aim is to locate the banks' business model in a risk-return space. Using an instrumental variables approach, our econometric methodology addresses potential endogeneity issues. Overall, we find that wholesale funded and securities holding banks are positioned on a relatively high risk-return trade-off plane compared with commercial banks. On the other hand, traditional commercial banks earn lower returns with moderate risk.     

Business cycle and bank lending procyclicality in a dual banking system

The paper studies bank lending behaviour over the business cycle in a dual banking system, Malaysia, with the objective of ascertaining whether Islamic banks have a role in stabilizing credit. The study makes use of unbalanced panel data of 21 conventional banks and 16 Islamic banks covering mostly the period 2001–2013. Applying dynamic GMM estimators, we find the aggregate loans by banks to be pro-cyclical in conformity with existing studies. However, when we segregate the lending/financing behaviour of conventional and Islamic banks, the cyclicality of bank lending seems to be true only for conventional banks. As for the Islamic banks, the business cycle does not seem to affect their financing decisions. Indeed, there is indication that the Islamic banks in general and the full-fledged Islamic banks in particular can even be counter-cyclical in their financing decisions. This conclusion is fairly robust to a different loan measure, alternative model specifications, and to an alternative business cycle measure. Hence, our results provide further support to the “stability” view of the Islamic banks in that they have the ability to stabilize credit.     

中国上市商业银行业务结构与盈利能力研究

中国上市商业银行盈利能力与业务结构紧密相关,论文从不同角度考察了商业银行的盈利能力,从资产负债业务结构的差异来分析商业银行盈利能力差异.由于目前国内各商业银行在大多数组织结构和运营模式上大同小异,决定一个商业银行盈利能力的关键可能在于其业务结构的差异.反映商业银行盈利能力的指标主要包括平均资产回报率、平均股东权益回报率、净利差和利息收益率等指标,而成本收入比作为一类占营业收入百分比的指标也可以用来衡量商业银行的盈利能力,本文主要采取成本收入比率和净资产回报率作为考察变量.通过对中国部分上市商业银行业务结构与盈利能力研究,贷款行业结构、区域结构、产品类型结构和存贷款期限结构决定了商业银行的收入空间,而存款的期限结构,特别是3个月以内的活期存款比重对商业银行的成本有着至关重要的影响.     

REGULATION OF BANK INTEREST RATE RISK

This paper argues that the direct control approach to regulating bank interest rate risk is not the most effective one. First, a bank's interest rate exposure cannot be summarised in a single measure. Rather there are a number of such measures, depending on the target adopted, and it is not possible to determine all of them simultaneously. Basing a capital requirement on any one of these measures can have ‘unintended consequences' for the others. Secondly, changes in interest rates have a range of complex effects on banks and these effects cannot be incorporated in any single numerical measure of interest rate exposure. The paper also raises doubts about the usefulness of disclosure requirements as a tool of prudential regulation of bank interest rate risk management. The preferred approach is a supervisory regime which ensures that banks have in place an effective system for managing their own interest rate exposures. One aspect of this supervision must be to ensure that banks are using simulation analysis to measure the effect on them of changes in interest rates.     

Assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential policy using an integrated micro-macro model for European households

We develop an integrated micro-macro model framework that is based on household survey data for a subset of the EU countries that the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) contains. We use the model for the purpose of assessing the efficacy of borrower-based macroprudential instruments, namely loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and debt service to income (DSTI) ratio caps, and illustrate its outcome for four European countries. The simulation results from the model can be attached to bank balance sheets and their risk parameters to derive the impact of the policy measures on their capital position. The model framework also allows quantifying the macroeconomic feedback effects that would result from the policy-induced reduction of demand for mortgage loans. An assessment as to the comparative efficacy of LTV- versus DSTI-based policy suggests that DSTI caps may be more effective in containing household risk.     

Global banking,global crises? The role of the bank balance-sheet channel for the transmission of financial crises

We examine whether shocks to leveraged creditors with cross border holdings have an incidence on debtor countries׳ risk of suffering financial turmoil. We construct a new proxy of shocks to international banks׳ balance-sheets using credit ratings and the structure of their international assets. This allows us investigating the effect of (foreign) bank balance-sheet shocks on domestic financial turmoil in a large sample of 146 developed and emerging economies from 1984 to 2011. Our proxies of shocks towards bank balance-sheets are strong predictors of systemic banking crises in their debtor countries. Confirming these results, bilateral bank flows significantly decrease when creditor banks׳ assets are hit by negative shocks, as measured by credit rating downgrades from third-party countries. Short-term liabilities towards global banks appear to increase roll-over and funding risks, thereby amplifying the impact of shocks to foreign lenders’ balance-sheets. Domestic banking sectors vulnerabilities, such as illiquid assets and a low deposit-asset ratio, are found to increase crisis contagion risk. In contrast, a high level of global liquidity attenuates the transmission of shocks to international banks׳ assets to debtor countries.     

EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS OF THE TURKISH BANKING SECTOR IN PRECRISIS AND CRISIS PERIOD: A DEA APPROACH

Structural weaknesses and recent crises increased the fragility of the Turkish banking system. Consequently, 25% of the domestic commercial banks were taken by SDIF between 1997 and 2001. This study assesses the technical efficiency of nonpublic commercial banks between 1990 and 2001 following the DEA model. The study reports a declining trend in the number of efficient banks and the mean efficiency of bank subgroups. It analyzes sensitivity to the output variables and depicts consistency between the model proposals and supervisory agent decisions. Thus the DEA model can be a tool to detect and improve the sources of inefficiency by bank management and supervisory agents. (JEL G15, G21, G28)     

宏观审慎政策、经济周期与银行风险承担*

本文基于中国227家商业银行2005－2016年非平衡面板数据，实证检验中国宏观审慎政策实施对于银行风险承担的影响。结果表明：宏观审慎政策增强会在一定程度上抑制银行风险承担，而且这种显著的负向关系并不随着银行风险代理变量、经营辐射范围以及是否有外资入股等条件的改变而发生变化。经济周期会对宏观审慎政策的有效性产生非对称性影响，即相比在经济上行时期，在经济下行时期的宏观审慎政策对银行风险承担的抑制作用更强且更为显著。就可能的影响机制而言，本文发现宏观审慎政策通过提高银行盈利能力，从而降低银行风险承担。       

经营活动、融资策略对银 行利润和风险的影响 ——基于我国商业银行的验证

2008年全球金融危机引发了对银行经营模式的思考。本文基于我国97家商业银行2005-2012年的面板数据，综合考虑了银行经营活动和融资策略之间的关联，并系统验证了两者分别对银行风险和利润的影响。结果发现非利息业务的开展与融资渠道的拓宽都未起到显著提升利润、分散风险的效果。这个结论虽然与发达国家的经验存在一定的差异，但是由于我国商业银行积极开展非利息业务的动机较弱，并且仍然高度依赖存款融资，因此符合我国目前的情况。     

中央银行的宏观监管职能:经济效果与影响因素分析

文章以跨国数据为基础,对中央银行是否应分离银行监管职能这一问题进行了系统的实证分析。结果表明,在中央银行未分离或未完全分离银行监管职能的国家,其金融稳定性通常更高,经济增速更快,而且未出现明显的"通货膨胀倾向"。这意味着金融监管的独立性并不是简单地将监管职能从中央银行分离的问题,中央银行的独立性也并不必然排斥其继续实施金融监管职能。通过将货币政策和金融监管的兼容性置于政治经济学框架下加以解读,文章发现真正影响金融监管实际独立性的并非监管主体的设置问题,而是更广泛地依赖于不同的政治制度条件。上述结论表明,如何在既定的政治制度和政策框架下切实加强货币政策和金融监管的协调与配合才是问题的核心和关键。     

货币政策对金融生态的影响机理及实证检验——基于上市商业银行面板数据的分析

传统的货币理论忽视了货币政策对银行风险承担及金融生态的影响,文章从商业银行的微观视角出发研究了货币政策对金融生态的影响机理。理论层面,金融生态与货币政策制度供给、传导机制和有效性相互关联,货币政策则通过资产价格或估值机制、收入及现金流机制、追求收益机制、杠杆调整机制、道德风险机制和风险转移机制影响商业银行的风险承担;实证层面,构建了货币政策影响商业银行信贷投放和风险承担的数理模型,选取国有和股份制两类共12家上市商业银行2008-2013年的面板数据进行固定效应模型实证检验。结果表明,宽松货币政策导致商业银行的信贷投放规模增加、风险承担意愿增强,有利于优化金融生态,反之则反是;国有商业银行对货币政策变化更敏感,而股份制商业银行对金融生态更敏感。因此,在我国宏观经济管理中,需要货币政策与宏观审慎政策相互协调配合。     

A new approach to measuring universal banking

Noninterest income is widely used in the literature to account for the degree of the universal business model by banks. This paper proposes a novel measure of universal banking constructed using the relative contribution of each operating segment to total assets using an entropy approach. We here propose a novel dataset containing the Universal Banking Index (UBI) at both country and bank levels. Using a sample of international banks, we evaluate the extent to which our proposed metric affects banks’ profitability, stability, liquidity and capitalisation. Results suggest that a higher degree of diversification is associated with increased stability. In addition, banks that feature a more diversified business model, as proxied by the UBI, are also better capitalised, as opposed to banks with high noninterest income share. Our results suggest that regulatory-induced restriction on universal banking may indeed reduce the benefits of risk sharing across operating segments, exposing banks to heightened risks.