Commodity futures hedging,risk aversion and the hedging horizon

This paper examines the impact of management preferences on optimal futures hedging strategy and associated performance. Applying an expected utility hedging objective, the optimal futures hedge ratio is determined for a range of preferences on risk aversion, hedging horizon and expected returns. Empirical results reveal substantial hedge ratio variation across distinct management preferences and are supportive of the hedging policies of real firms. Hedging performance is further shown to be strongly dependent on underlying preferences. In particular, hedgers with high risk aversion and short horizon reduce hedge portfolio risk but achieve inferior utility in comparison to those with low aversion.     

Nonlinear relationship between crude oil price and net futures positions: A dynamic conditional distribution approach

This study examines the dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and net futures positions using a dynamic conditional density that can take account of time-varying bimodality. The shape of conditional density is modeled directly by specifying functional coefficients. We find that when the crude oil price is on the rise (decline), speculators tend to take long (short) positions to make profits and hedgers tend to take short (long) positions to cover the risk in the physical market. On the other hand, speculators have a positive effect on the price whereas hedgers have a negative effect. Therefore, when the price is on the rise (decline), speculators tend to push it up (pull it down) while hedgers tend to pull it down (push it up). This effect becomes stronger in the recent period. Moreover, the sharp increase of the crude oil price can be explained by speculating and hedging behavior through conditional higher-order moments.     

Capturing the risk premium of commodity futures: The role of hedging pressure

We construct long–short factor mimicking portfolios that capture the hedging pressure risk premium of commodity futures. We consider single sorts based on the open interests of hedgers or speculators, as well as double sorts based on both positions. The long–short hedging pressure portfolios are priced cross-sectionally and present Sharpe ratios that systematically exceed those of long-only benchmarks. Further tests show that the hedging pressure risk premiums rise with the volatility of commodity futures markets and that the predictive power of hedging pressure over cross-sectional commodity futures returns is different from the previously documented forecasting power of past returns and the slope of the term structure.     

Why and How UK Firms Hedge

This paper attempts to differentiate among the theories of hedging by using disclosures in the annual reports of 400 UK companies and data collected via a survey. I find, unlike many previous US studies, strong evidence linking the decision to hedge and the expected costs of financial distress. The tests show that this is mainly because my definition of hedging includes all hedgers and not just derivative users. However, when the tests employ the same hedging definition as previous US studies, financial distress cost factors still appear to be more important for this sample than samples of US firms. Therefore, a secondary explanation for the strong financial distress results might be due to differences in the bankruptcy codes in the two countries, which result in higher expected costs of financial distress for UK firms. The paper also examines the determinants of the choice of hedging method distinguishing between non‐derivative and derivatives hedging. My evidence shows that larger firms, firms with more cash, firms with a greater probability of financial distress, firms with exports or imports and firms with more short‐term debt are more likely to hedge with derivatives. Thus, differences in opportunities, in incentives for reducing risk and in the types of financial price exposure play an important role in how firms hedge their risks.     

The relationship between risk and expected return in Europe

We employ MIDAS (mixed data sampling) to study the risk–expected return trade-off in several European stock indices. Using MIDAS, we report that in most indices there is a significant positive relationship between risk and expected return. This strongly contrasts with the result we obtain when we employ both symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for conditional variance. We also find that asymmetric specifications of the variance process within the MIDAS framework improve the relationship between risk and expected return. As an additional application, we analyze the extent to which European stock markets are integrated, which is a particularly relevant issue, especially following the launch of the Euro in January 1999. Finally, we propose a bivariate MIDAS specification to test the pricing significance of the hedging component within an intertemporal risk–return trade-off with multiple European market indices.     

Foreign Currency Derivatives versus Foreign Currency Debt and the Hedging Premium

This paper compares the effect on firm value of different foreign currency (FC) financial hedging strategies identified by type of exposure (short‐ or long‐term) and type of instrument (forwards, options, swaps and foreign currency debt). We find that hedging instruments depend on the type of exposure. Short‐term instruments such as FC forwards and/or options are used to hedge short‐term exposure generated from export activity while FC debt and FC swaps into foreign currency (but not into domestic currency) are used to hedge long‐term exposure arising from assets located in foreign locations. Our results relating to the value effects of foreign currency hedging indicate that foreign currency derivatives use increases firm value but there is no hedging premium associated with foreign currency debt hedging, except when combined with foreign currency derivatives. Taken individually, FC swaps generate more value than short‐term derivatives.     

HEDGING PERFORMANCE AND HEDGING OBJECTIVES: TESTS OF NEW PERFORMANCE MEASURES IN THE FOREIGN CURRENCY MARKET

Two related approaches are introduced for measuring the performance of hedging strategies. The first summarizes the risk-return trade-off as a single annotated numerical value, and the second displays it as a performance curve. Two bounded sets of hedging strategies are used to evaluate empirically the performance measures. One set is divided according to whether it best satisfies short or long hedging objectives. Results show that market conditions often provide opportunities to reduce variance and increase expected return. They also suggest that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's typical definition of “bona fide” hedging should be reconsidered.     

Asymmetric Volume‐Return Relation and Concentrated Trading in LIFFE Futures

This study demonstrates that intraday volume and return on LIFFE interest rate and currency futures exhibit an asymmetric volume‐return relationship characterised by significantly larger volume associated with negative returns than with non‐negative returns. This finding is unlike the stylised asymmetric relation often observed in equity markets, where the volume on price rise is larger than the volume on price decline. The asymmetric relationship in LIFFE futures is also found to be dynamic as the direction of asymmetry can reverse during the day. It has been argued in the past that a costly short sale restriction that requires a higher transaction cost on a short position than on a long position is responsible for the asymmetric effect in equity markets. Since such a restriction is absent in futures markets, they should not exhibit any asymmetric volume behaviour. Based on the results of this research, the costly short sale hypothesis is rejected. An alternative explanation of the asymmetric relation observed in futures is presented based on recent information models that take into consideration asymmetrically‐informed traders, their dispersion of beliefs, quality and quantity of the information signal, and how the traders process it. The paper also confirms a strong U‐shape trading pattern in 15‐minute volume, but no such pattern is identified in intraday returns.     

An Intertemporal International Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Empirical Evidence

We extend Campbell's (1993) model to develop an intertemporal international asset pricing model (IAPM). We show that the expected international asset return is determined by a weighted average of market risk, market hedging risk, exchange rate risk and exchange rate hedging risk. These weights sum up to one. Our model explicitly separates hedging against changes in the investment opportunity set from hedging against exchange rate changes as well as exchange rate risk from intertemporal hedging risk. A test of the conditional version of our intertemporal IAPM using a multivariate GARCH process supports the asset pricing model. We find that the exchange rate risk is important for pricing international equity returns and it is much more important than intertemporal hedging risk.     

The Real and Financial Implications of Corporate Hedging

We study the implications of hedging for corporate financing and investment. We do so using an extensive, hand‐collected data set on corporate hedging activities. Hedging can lower the odds of negative realizations, thereby reducing the expected costs of financial distress. In theory, this should ease a firm's access to credit. Using a tax‐based instrumental variable approach, we show that hedgers pay lower interest spreads and are less likely to have capital expenditure restrictions in their loan agreements. These favorable financing terms, in turn, allow hedgers to invest more. Our tests characterize two exact channels—cost of borrowing and investment restrictions—through which hedging affects corporate outcomes. The analysis shows that hedging has a first‐order effect on firm financing and investment, and provides new insights into how hedging affects corporate value. More broadly, our study contributes novel evidence on the real consequences of financial contracting.     

Will tighter futures price limits decrease hedge effectiveness?

The events triggered by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) have led to calls for the regulation of financial markets. Given that regulation may involve opportunity costs, this paper examines whether tighter futures price limits can reduce the effectiveness of a futures hedge. We propose a new model that uncovers the underlying spot-futures dynamics when futures prices are subject to limits. We use the model to determine the maximum number of limit days that can occur before minimum variance hedging outcomes are adversely affected. Application of this model to the US soybean and corn markets reveals that existing limits do not reduce hedge effectiveness. If the frequency of limit days increases from current levels of 1% to approximately 3–4%, conventional hedging approaches will experience economically and statistically significant increases in portfolio variance. These results are important for hedgers, clearing houses and regulators in light of the recent calls for derivatives regulation.     

Exchange rate exposure and foreign exchange derivatives: do ineffective hedgers modify future derivatives use?

Recent studies examining the relationship between stock returns and exchange rate changes have provided evidence that the exchange rate exposure of non-financial companies is reduced by the use of foreign exchange derivatives. Building on such research, this study investigates whether past ineffective derivative hedging contributes to explaining future derivatives use. To the extent that companies monitor the effectiveness of their currency risk management practices, past ineffective hedgers can be expected to modify their future use of foreign exchange derivatives accordingly. In our study of 94 non-financial US multinationals, we provide evidence that the change in derivatives use from 1996–1998 to 1998–2000 can be explained in part by the ineffective hedging of currency risk in 1996–1998, controlling for variables associated with theories of optimal hedging. Additional analyses confirm that such primary results are robust to firm size, the level of foreign operations, and the use of derivatives to partially hedge currency risk. Our results imply that as exchange markets and risk management practices change, the use of derivatives to manage exchange rate risk also changes. Our contribution to this field of study is that we find evidence that past ineffective hedgers tend to increase their future use of FXDs.     

Utility maximizing portfolio insurance strategies when hedgers consider the impact of their trading on security prices

Portfolio insurance strategies can destabilize markets to such an extent that they may be counterproductive. Destabilization results when hedgers take share prices as given and follow exogenously specified price-based trading rules. We recognize that such trading rules may not be utility maximizing and that hedging affects share prices. Accordingly, we develop a portfolio insurance strategy where hedgers consider the impact of their trading on prices and endogenize their trading rule which is obtained by maximizing expected utility. Moreover, our strategy does not require the dissemination of information about the extent of portfolio-insurance based hedging activity in the economy.     

Swap variance hedging and efficiency: The role of high moments

In this article, we propose a new theoretical approach for developing hedging strategies based on swap variance (SwV). SwV is a generalized risk measure equivalent to a polynomial combination of all moments of a return distribution. Using the S&P 500 index and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot and futures price data, as well as simulations by varying the distribution of asset returns, we investigate the dynamic differences between hedge ratios and portfolio performances based on SwV (with high moments) and variance (without high moments). We find that, on average, the minimizing-SwV hedging suggests more short futures contracts than minimizing-variance hedging; however, when market conditions deteriorate, the minimizing-SwV hedging suggests fewer short positions in futures. The superior posthedge performances of the mean-SwV hedged portfolios over the mean-variance hedged portfolios in highly volatile or extremely calm markets confirm the efficiency of the mean-SwV hedging strategy.     

Hedging the value of waiting

We analyze the optimal hedging policy of a firm that has flexibility in the timing of investment. Conventional wisdom suggests that hedging adds value by alleviating the under-investment problem associated with capital market frictions. However, our model shows that hedging also adds value by allowing investment to be delayed in circumstances where the same frictions would cause it to commence prematurely. Thus, hedging can have the paradoxical effect of reducing investment. We also show that greater timing flexibility increases the optimal quantity of hedging, but has a non-monotonic effect on the additional value created by hedging. These results may help explain the empirical findings that investment rates do not differ between hedgers and non-hedgers, and that hedging propensities do not depend on standard measures of growth opportunities.     

We don't need no fancy hedges! Or do we?

Hedging decisions in the real world often contradict the literature. We reverse-engineer the optimal hedging problem by identifying patterns of price behavior that warrant using strategies more sophisticated than variance minimization (MV). Historical time series of spot and futures prices for the crack spread components (crude oil, gasoline, and heating oil) are used to generate different patterns of price dependency. A copula approach is used to model the joint dependence between spot and futures price shocks of the three commodities. We find that minimizing a downside risk criterion (what actual hedgers do) leads to consistently better outcomes than MV, as measured by Expected Utility. This is especially true in scenarios corresponding to strong upward or downward price movements. We provide a simple decision heuristic for hedgers by identifying price patterns whereby using sophisticated strategies for multi-commodity hedging is optimal in practice.     

Spillovers and connectedness between major precious metals and major currency markets: The role of frequency factor

We examine the volatility spillovers and hedging characteristics between four major precious metals futures (gold, palladium, platinum, and silver) and seven major currencies (Australian dollar, British pound, Canadian dollar, Chinese yuan, Euro, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc) at three time horizons (short term, intermediate term, and long term). We draw our empirical results using the index methods of Diebold and Yilmaz, 2012, Diebold and Yilmaz, 2014 and Baruník and Křehlík (2018). The results show that the precious metals, except for gold, have the largest spillovers on the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar and receive the largest spillovers from these currencies for all the time horizons. In addition, with the exception of gold, the smallest spillovers from the precious metals are exerted on the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan and these currencies have the smallest spillovers to the precious metals. The Japanese yen and Chinese yuan act primarily as spillover receivers, whereas the other currencies act as both spillover transmitters and receivers in different time periods. The spillovers for most of the pairs are asymmetric for all the time horizons, are more pronounced in the short term, and noticeably increase during times of financial and economic uncertainty. Finally, adding precious metal futures contracts to currency portfolios provides diversification and hedging advantages, with hedging effectiveness higher in the short term than in the intermediate and long terms.     

Asymmetry Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Production in Emerging Countries

Previous studies that tried to assess the impact of exchange rate changes on domestic production of emerging economies assumed that the effects are symmetric and used a linear model to provide mixed results. In this article, we try to determine whether exchange rate changes could have asymmetric effects which amounts to using a nonlinear model. We find that the nonlinear model performs much better than the linear model and yields results that support asymmetry effects of exchange rate changes on domestic production in many of the countries in our sample, both in the short run and in the long run.     

Information, Trading Demand, and Futures Price Volatility

We examine the relation between futures price volatility and trading demand by type of trader in the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500-stock index futures market. We find that volatility covaries negatively with signed speculative demand shocks but is positively related to signed hedging demand shocks. No significant relation between volatility and demand shocks for small traders is found. Our results suggest that changes in positions of large hedgers destabilize the market, whereas changes in positions of large speculators stabilize volatility. Consistent with models with asymmetrically informed traders, we find that large speculators are likely to possess superior forecasting ability, large hedgers behave like positive feedback traders, and small traders are liquidity traders.     

Hedging with Chinese Aluminum Futures: International Evidence with Return and Volatility Spillover Indices Under Structural Breaks

This paper examines the hedging performance of the Shanghai futures market, with the London futures market acting as the channel for volatility spillover. Taking into consideration structural change, basis effects, and return and volatility spillover effects, the authors find that the estimated hedging performance is not improved. Their findings suggest that the effectiveness of the hedging performance of aluminum futures contracts in China is not affected by the magnitude or direction of return and volatility spillovers. Therefore, even when the magnitude and direction of volatility spillover from other markets can be correctly predicted, the hedging performance of a futures contract cannot be significantly improved. This paper uses precise measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers based directly on the framework of vector autoregressive variance decompositions. The study also includes an analysis of both crisis and noncrisis episodes, with modeling on bursts in spillovers.