基于有限理性智能体的生态经济模型

From the view of hominine bounded rationalities, this paper analyzes the important relationships between ecology and economics with behavioral finance. With a different focus, this paper adopts a new conceptualization of stock to show how this conceptualization leads to a new measure of the interaction between ecology and economics, based on bounded rational agents. The hierarchical structure of ecological economic system is described with a multi-agent simulation program. This paper also develops an ecological economic model, in which behavioral finance theories are applied to simulating the dynamics system. With the model, this paper confirms that macro-level indicators of sustainability are predictably influenced by behaviors of bounded rational agents at the micro-level. We discuss the significance of these findings in order to better understand the ecological-economic system based on behavioral finance.     

情绪介入经济决策研究的演变路径——从古典经济学到神经经济学

情绪曾是古典经济学研究经济决策的出发点.新古典经济学的理性决策模型却把情绪视为干扰因素而加以排除.行为经济学从有限理性、偏好逆转和认知偏差中"发现"了情绪对经济决策的重要影响.神经经济学则运用fRMI等脑成像技术揭示了情绪影响经济决策的脑神经机制.文章从经济学的发展过程探讨情绪影响经济决策的演变路径,试图运用不同分析视角形成情绪与决策关系的一般分析框架及其适用条件.最后探讨了情绪与决策关系研究的未来发展方向.     

行为委托-代理激励新模型及分析框架

标准委托-代理激励模型及分析框架沿袭新古典经济学中关于理性经济人、偏好不变、预期效用等基本假定，存在一些无法解释的现象和悖论。本文从行为经济学对主流经济学的新古典经济学基本假设的挑战出发，对标准委托-代理激励模型及分析框架中代理人完全理性和风险规避等基本假设所带来的缺陷进行了系统分析，探究了如何利用期望理论的价值函数替代期望效用函数、有限理性替代完全理性来构建新的委托一代理激励模型及分析框架。新模型和框架考虑了代理人的心理特征和非理性行为，将增强激励模型及分析框架对现实制度的解释力和适用性。     

行为经济学中的公平互惠——和谐社会的经济理论基础

基于理性经济人假说的传统经济学认为,经济行为主体是单纯地追求个人利益最大化的。这在一定程度上强化了社会经济关系中的矛盾和冲突,不利于构建和谐社会。建立在行为经济学基础上的公平互惠理论,强调了有限理性的经济行为主体之间的公平、互惠与合作,这正是构建和谐社会的内在要求。因此,公平、互惠与合作是和谐社会的经济要素。而且,基于行为经济学的公平互惠理论为构建和谐社会提供了微观经济理论基础,并可依据这一理论对和谐社会进行机制设计或制度安排。     

现代主流经济学的制度转向及其制度不及——兼论新制度主义的分析思维及其范式缺陷

新古典经济学是研究既定制度下个体理性行为的学说,而社会制度的确立原则不同于属于个体的行为原则,因为社会制度涉及到众多社会性因素。不幸的是,流行的新制度主义恰恰舍弃了包括伦理、历史和权力等社会性因素,而试图把制度分析纳入新古典经济学框架,它或者基于博弈均衡来分析和解释那些正式规则,或者基于理性建模的互动行为分析来构设社会制度。正是基于这种抽象思维,新制度主义必然不能真正剖析制度的产生和演化,舍弃权力结构的博弈均衡所构设的社会制度。     

经济不确定、银行管理者乐观主义与银行风险承担

基于行为金融理论的有限理性，本文从行为金融学的角度将管理者乐观主义置于经济不确定性与银行风险承担的关系中，利用中国商业银行2008-2017年的季度数据，通过中介效应的两阶段回归实证检验了经济不确定性、管理者乐观主义与银行风险承担三者的关系。研究结果发现：经济不确定性增加会抑制管理者乐观主义的心理偏差；管理者乐观主义会使得银行风险增加；在经济不确定性影响银行风险承担过程中，至少有一部分是通过“管理者乐观主义的中介渠道”实现的，而管理者乐观主义的中介作用具体表现为“遮掩效应”。进一步研究发现，在经济不确定性与银行风险承担的关系中，银行市场纪律约束具有调节作用，并且该调节效应至少部分是通过管理者乐观主义中介渠道而发挥作用的。     

The Perception of Dividends By Management

The "dividend puzzle," i.e., the love stockholders have for dividends, has always been one of the great mysteries of modern finance/financial economics. Six classes of dividend theories have been advanced during the last five decades, almost all using the logic of the economic person. Unfortunately, all these models suffer from either a lack of verifiability or contradicting empirical evidence. This paper takes an approach that has been largely ignored so far by dividend research. Instead of analyzing large volumes of market data based on yet another "rational" model, we study the perception of dividends by top corporate decision-makers. The respondents' answers to a survey instrument are then analyzed and compared with accounting, economic, and market data. The results are surprising in terms of both similarity and dissimilarity of perception. We hope that our results and this type of research will open up new ways of looking at this puzzle.     

基于行为经济学Prospect理论的个体决策行为的进一步研究

诺贝尔经济学奖得主行为经济学家Kahneman．D和Tversky．A的Prospect Theory在全面反驳新古典预期效用理论的基础上，提出了基于个体主观感受和有限理性的一般决策模型，为不确定条件下个体的经济决策行为提供了一个全新的表述。在Prospect Theory的经典模型的基础上加入时间压力限制等因素，可发现个体在理性时间限制下风险偏好在不同的时间压力下会呈现非理性，尤其在短期行为中更是如此，可见古典经济学的偏好和理性假设将不再是决定所有个体决策行为的最终因素，时间压力的个体素质也是影响个体决策行为的最终目标实现的重要因素。     

The history of economics as economics?

Abstract

This paper critically evaluates the current decline of the relationship between economics and the history of economics, and proposes a framework called the panorama-cum-scenario model for the practice of the history of economics. Starting with the Hegelian thesis that the history of economics is economics itself, the paper argues that such a relationship is necessary but not sufficient because the history of economics is a metatheory addressed to economic theory. The history of economics needs a panoramic view of the subject and a scenario for the construction, interpretation, and evaluation of the system of economics. The panorama-cum-scenario model enables us to work on the history of economics not only by historical and rational reconstruction but also by global reconstruction. Nietzsche's anti-Hegelian viewpoint and Heidegger's hermeneutical standpoint are useful for identifying the role of historical research in developing economic knowledge based on the panorama-cum-scenario model. Several approaches to the history of economics are examined in light of the panorama-cum-scenario model. Schumpeter's history of economics is interpreted as an example of the panorama-cum-scenario model.     

基于新疆农村金融生态视角的民间借贷研究

农村金融生态是农村经济重要的资本要素配置系统,民间借贷是农村金融生态系统中不可或缺的组成要素。文章在实证分析新疆农村金融生态环境的基础上,提出从疏导和扶持农村民间借贷的视角完善新疆农村金融生态,优化农村金融资源配置,构建适应新疆新农村建设的农村金融体系。     

新制度经济学委托代理理论视野的拓展*

新制度经济学中的委托代理理论基于“经济人理性”假定,设计出了精密、精巧、精致的委托代理制度,有效化解了现代企业中委托人与代理人之间利益冲突并提升了企业运营效率。然而,现代企业实践已经证明,即使委托代理制度十分精密、精巧、精致,仍然没有彻底解决委托人与代理人之间的利益冲突和企业运营效率进一步提升问题。因此,必须拓展既有理论视野,从“经济人理性”假定拓展到“经济人+社会人+家庭人复合理性”假定,这样就能够实现委托代理理论视野的拓展。运用新制度经济学研究方法和双边对称信任数理模型表明：基于委托代理制度,进一步强化委托人与代理人之间双边对称信任度,可以进一步化解他们之间的利益冲突并且改善企业运营效率。基于这一结论,强化委托人与代理人之间双边对称信任度的具体路径是优化社会信任环境系统。     

Neuroeconomics?

The point of departure for most neuroeconomics is behavioral economics: the rational man of economics has been rejected in favor of more realistic psychological models. The old model supposes hyperrationality of individuals, and because it has been discredited, existing economic theory is useless. To complete the behavioral revolution, we need only peer into the brain and build more realistic models of decision making. As I explain here, this assessment of modern economics is hopelessly wrong.     

植入“过度自信”因素的委托-代理合同研究

传统的委托代理关系研究假设委托人和代理人都是完全理性的,但大量研究表明,双方参与人并非完全理性,最显著的非理性表现就是过度自信。本文将行为经济理论与委托-代理理论相结合,把代理人过度自信的因素引入Holmstorm—Milgrom模型中,对代理人的参与约束条件进行了改进,建立了代理人过度自信情况下的委托-代理模型。研究结果表明,代理人的过度自信水平与代理人的绝对风险规避度和努力成本以及外生不确定性因素有关,代理人适当过度自信将给委托-代理双方带来更高的收益。     

实物期权法对网络企业投资评估的适用性研究

结合经济学、金融学、技术经济学原理,通过对网络企业运行规律的分析,在收益法模型框架下提出网络企业的技术经济特点,分析了传统评价方法对网络企业的局限性,探讨了实物期权法对网络企业投资评估的适用性,对网络企业投资的技术经济评价方法进行了有价值的研究。     

Book Reviews

Traditional capital market theory says that markets are efficient because investors are rational. The new school of behavioral finance says the opposite. Rather than solving problems "rationally," individuals tend to make biased decisions using pattern recognition techniques. However, what is rational and irrational may depend upon the type of problem we wish to solve and the method we use to solve it. If the market inefficiency is a simple objective problem, then "cool reason" should prevail. However, if the market is a complex system, then the value of data would be ambiguous making it more rational to use pattern recognition techniques. In this article we will find that rational investors would indeed keep certain types of mispricing from happening. Likewise, human behavior and the market complexity cause mispricing that cannot be arbitraged away. In the end, investors are irrational if they use the wrong method to solve a particular type of problem. By examining method and object we can find when investors are rational, when they are irrational. A non-mathematical model integrating efficient markets, behavioral finance, and complex systems is presented.     

IS THERE A ROLE FOR TRANSACTION COST ECONOMICS IF WE VIEW FIRMS AS COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS?

This article assesses the usefulness of transaction cost economics when we view economic organizations, such as firms, as complex adaptive systems. Modern complexity science is radically different in orientation to neoclassical economics, which deals with decision making in contexts that are presumed to be simple and, therefore, disconnected from complex reality. However, transaction cost economics can be related to aspects of modern complexity science: bounded rationality, opportunism, and asset specificity are all associated with behavioral complexity. Furthermore, the emphasis of transaction cost economics on hierarchy and organizational rather than technological considerations is also consistent with complexity science. Drawing on literature in psychological economics, this article synthesizes transaction cost economics with aspects of complexity science in a manner that offers a new research agenda, not only in the context of the organization of production but in economics generally. Such theoretical developments are vital if policy makers are to have at their disposal analytical perspectives that are coherent and applicable in complex historical settings.     

Institutions in the economy and some institutions of mainstream economics: From the late 1970s to the 2008 financial and economic crisis

This article proposes a conceptual and theoretical institutional approach to the relations between the economy and economics and uses it to examine, through a structured survey of the literature, the relations between institutions in the economy and the institutions of mainstream economics, macroeconomics, and financial economics, highlighting issues related to the financial and macroeconomic crisis and focusing on the United States from the late 1970s to 2008. Institutions are socially shared systems of rules of behavior or of thought. Some systems of mental and behavioral rules are socially shared among economic agents and policymakers in part because they are socially shared among academic economists. They may exert on economic agents and policymakers some of the same types of influence they have on economists. On the other hand, there are important limits to the influence of the institutions of economics outside academia, and institutions in the economy also influence the institutions of economics.     

Relative and absolute scarcity of nature. Assessing the roles of economics and ecology for biodiversity conservation

Our aim in this essay is to identify and analyze some of the difficulties with interdisciplinary integration of economic and ecological contributions to the study of biodiversity loss. We develop our analysis from a widely accepted definition of economics which is based on the concept of scarcity. Taking a closer look at this notion, we find that economics actually limits itself to a very particular aspect of scarcity, which we denote as relative scarcity. We describe in what respect the economic approach towards biodiversity is based on this notion, and also reflect on the specific understanding of the relation of humans and nature behind the economic approach. We then turn to absolute scarcity as another notion of scarcity, and show that this is not within the scope of economics, but has been a theme of ecology and ecological economics. We describe in which way ecological and ecological–economic approaches towards biodiversity are based on the idea of absolute scarcity, and also reflect on the specific understanding of the human–nature relationship behind this notion of scarcity. Against this background, we discuss the roles of economics and ecology for nature conservation. We conclude that the interdisciplinary integration of ecology and economics requires a philosophical underpinning, and suggest a framework for further research.