中国外汇储备适度规模实证分析

截至2007年底,中国外汇储备突破1.5万亿美元,建立计量模型对中国外汇储备规模进行实证分析表明：自2001年以来中国外汇储备实际规模一直大于适度规模。应扩大内需,酌情开征外汇交易税,适度进行汇率改革,以缓解外汇储备过快增长的局面。     

出口退税、贸易盈余和外汇储备的一般均衡分析与中国的实证

本文构建了一个简单的大国开放经济一般均衡模型,从理论上探讨了外汇储备从贸易盈余时的短期均衡到贸易平衡时的长期均衡的动态变化过程,并在此基础上量化分析了降低出口退税率对长期均衡时的外汇储备的影响。研究表明,降低出口退税率在短期内对减少贸易盈余和控制外汇储备增量有一定的帮助,但长期来看则与出口产品的价格弹性密切相关,只有降低那些价格弹性较大的产品的出口退税率,才能够有效地减少长期均衡时的外汇储备,否则可能产生适得其反的效果。中国数据的实证研究支持了理论模型的结论。由于中国的出口产品总体缺乏价格弹性,因此,近年来实行的一系列出口退税政策改革在长期内使国家外汇储备出现了一定程度的增加。本文最后提出了相关的政策建议。     

人民币实际汇率错位对出口贸易影响的实证研究

本文在既有文献的基础上,通过结合我国经济转型的特点,研究了人民币实际汇率错位对出口贸易的影响。文中提出了更加合理的模型,引入关税(出口退税额)、政府支出、贸易条件等变量,通过Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解等计量方法进行了实证检验,结果表明,1978￣2005年,人民币实际汇率错位对出口贸易产生负面影响。其后,运用二元离散选择模型(Logit模型)进一步对二者关系进行了考察,得出了人民币实际汇率错位幅度与净出口呈负相关的结论,即汇率错位幅度越小,越有利于出口,从而出现贸易顺差。     

关税、货币政策与中国实际均衡汇率

加入WTO后 ,降低进口品关税等措施将影响人民币均衡汇率水平 ,同时开放经济下国内货币政策、财政政策等宏观经济政策调整也会改变均衡汇率水平。本文运用动态一般均衡的方法 ,探讨中国在加入世界贸易组织之后 ,关税税率调整、货币供应量增长率改变、财政政策调整等措施对实际均衡汇率的长期效应。把货币引入生产函数和消费者的效用函数 ,我们扩展了由Turnovsky提出的两商品资本积累模型 ,利用参数赋值(calibration)的方法进行了均衡状态下的比较静态分析。研究发现降低进口品关税使人民币面临贬值压力 ,而政府增加税收 ,减少对贸易品的消费则有利于人民币的保值和升值。实证研究结果表明 :国外实际利率水平下降 ,实际货币供应量增长率降低都将引起人民币均衡汇率贬值。     

Tax Effects on the Real Exchange Rate

This study examines the impact of taxes on the real exchange rate through their marginal effects on economic activity. We hypothesize that an increase in the capital interest tax rate leads to real domestic currency depreciation while an increase in wage or consumption tax rates leads to a real domestic currency appreciation. These hypotheses are supported by an empirical study using panel data estimations of annual data from 10 OECD countries over 17 years.     

中国外汇储备增长的因素分析与对策探讨

中国外汇储备已突破2万亿美元大关,人民币汇率的低估被认为是外汇储备快速增长的主要原因。通过实证分析发现,中国外汇储备的增长受到贸易条件、相对技术进步和外商直接的投资等因素变量的影响,人民币实际汇率对外汇储备增长的影响并不显著,通过人民币实际汇率大幅升值来调整外汇储备增长的做法是不可取的。当前应该采取措施促进非贸易部门的技术进步,适当增加进口,优化外资引进政策以减缓外汇储备的快速增长。     

人民币升值影响中国粮食出口贸易的实证分析

J曲线效应理论是探讨汇率变动影响出口贸易的重要理论之一,主要通过构建计量经济学模型对人民币汇率影响中国粮食出口贸易进行实证研究,结果表明,该理论在人民币汇率影响中国粮食出口贸易方面得到了证实。研究还进一步显示,中国粮食出口与当年人民币的实际有效汇率显著地呈反向相关关系,且与前二年的人民币名义汇率变动的反向相关程度大于当年的实际有效汇率。此外,出口退税率和技术性贸易壁垒对粮食的出口贸易也产生了较大的影响。     

Government financing in an endogenous growth model with financial market restrictions

Summary. In this paper, we develop an endogenous growth model with market regulations on explicitly modeled financial intermediaries to examine the effects of alternative government financing schemes on growth, inflation, and welfare. In the presence of binding regulation, there is always a unique equilibrium. We perform four alternative policy experiments; a change in the seigniorage tax rate, a change in the seigniorage tax base, a change in the income tax and a change in the fiscal-monetary policy mix. We find that in the presence of binding legal reserve requirements, a marginal increase in government spending need not result in a reduction in the rate of economic growth if it is financed with an increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Raising the seigniorage tax base by means of an increase in the reserve requirement retards growth and it has an ambiguous effect on inflation. An increase in income tax financed government spending also suppresses growth and raises inflation although not to the extent that the required seigniorage tax rate alternative would. Switching from seigniorage to income taxation as a source of government finance is growth reducing but deflationary. From a welfare perspective, the least distortionary way of financing an increase in the government spending requirements is by means of a marginal increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Under the specification of logarithmic preferences, the optimal tax structure is indeterminate. Received: March 20, 2000; revised version: June 26, 2001     

How the Machinery of International Finance Runs with Sand in its Wheels

The dramatic swings in international capital movements in recent years have renewed interest in restrictions on capital flows. This paper provides a model of international asset flows and domestic equity price formation incorporating three restrictions on capital flows. A transaction tax introduces significant asymmetries in the reaction of asset prices to financial and real shocks but has no long-lived effects. Policies targeted to the level of net foreign debt by imposing a tax or outright controls do influence the steady-state levels of the real exchange rate and relative equity prices.     

The effects of government spending shocks on the real exchange rate and trade balance in Turkey

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of government spending shocks on the real exchange rate and foreign trade balance in Turkey for the period of 2002:01–2012:04 within a structural VAR framework. The analysis shows that a positive shock to the government spending tends to induce real exchange rate appreciation and deterioration in trade balance. We also find that the composition of the government spending matters. Although shocks to the government nonwage consumption generate an appreciation in the real exchange rate and worsening of the trade balance, the effects of government investment shocks remain insignificant. Furthermore, the analysis demonstrates that shocks to government spending are associated with a rise in taxes, which is indicative of a spending-driven tax adjustment process in Turkey.     

Fiscal devaluation and real exchange rates in the Euro area: Some econometric insights

We explore whether a fiscal devaluation, that is, a reduction in employers’ social security contributions and an increase in value added tax, affects two indicators of bilateral real exchange rates in the euro area: one based on unit labor costs, and another based on consumer prices. We find that, in the short term, cuts in employers’ contributions depreciate real exchange rates based on unit labor costs, while value added tax hikes appreciate real exchange rates based on consumer prices. In the long run, a value added tax increase also appreciates the real exchange rates based on unit labor costs.     

The real exchange rate determination: An empirical investigation

This study examines the real exchange rate determination in Asian economies. The methods show that the real exchange rate and terms of trade can be jointly determined. Productivity differential, terms of trade, the real oil price, and reserve differential are found to be important in the real exchange rate determination in the long run. However, the significant impacts of those variables on the real exchange rate determination are different across economies. Moreover, the results of the generalised forecast error variance decompositions show that the important contributors of the real exchange rate are different across economies.     

Optimal taxation in a monetary economy with financial intrmediaries

The problem of optimal taxation when the government must levy distorting taxes to meet its revenue needs is considered for a monetary economy with financial intermediaries. In contrast to most other studies of optimal taxation in a monetary economy, money is treated as an intermediate good which is held because doing so economizes on the scarce resources that must be devoted to the exchange process. Attention is focused on the roles of the inflation tax, reserve requirements, and deposit taxes. The key result is that revenue considerations do not justify taxing cash and deposits. That is, the optimal tax structure calls for adopting the optimum quantity of money rule and setting deposit taxes to zero. When the optimal tax structure is in place, reserve requirements turn out to be irrelevant from both the fiscal and welfare perspectives.     

Colombia’s macroeconomic challenges at the end of the supercycle of commodity prices

The end of the commodity boom presents major challenges for the Colombian economy. The major ones relate to the need to reduce the current account deficit and find new growth engines. A competitive real exchange rate is essential for objectives and requires stronger interventions in the foreign exchange market; these interventions also help to smooth out the trajectory of the inflation rate. Finally, although fiscal adjustment has been adequate, there are fiscal needs associated with the additional public sector spending demanded by the peace agreement and the need to correct the major structural tax imbalances generated by previous tax reforms.     

REAL EXCHANGE RATE CYCLES AROUND ELECTIONS

We develop the implications of devaluation cycles for real exchange rates in a two-sector small open economy with a cash-in-advance constraint. Policy-makers are office-motivated politicians. Voters have incomplete information on the competence and the opportunism of incumbents. Devaluation acts like a tax, and is politically costly because it can signal the government is incompetent. This provides incumbents an incentive to postpone devaluations, and can lead to an overvalued exchange rate before elections. We compare the implied cycle of appreciated/depreciated exchange rates with empirical evidence around elections from Latin America.     

Pigouvian Taxes in General Equilibrium with a Fixed Tax Redistribution Rule

This paper establishes existence of a first-best emission tax in a general equilibrium model with pollution, when the redistribution rule of the tax income is chosen fixed and independently of the Pigouvian tax rate. It is known that under standard convexity assumptions each Pareto efficient allocation can be implemented by simultaneously choosing a Pigouvian tax rate and an appropriate lump sum redistribution of income. In real politics, however, tax redistribution schemes are often restricted to a small feasible set. Nonetheless we show that for any given lump sum redistribution rule, being continuous in overall tax income, an emission tax rate exists that leads to a Pareto efficient equilibrium.     

The Volatility of Real Exchange Rates: The Australian Case

This paper presents an empirical investigation into factors underlying the real U.S.-Australian dollar exchange rate. We find that the random walk model of the real exchange rate can be improved by various GARCH specifications. In particular, we find that the estimated risk premium from a GARCH-M model is not robust to model specification. When the model is extended to include the $US/Yen real exchange rate and an index of commodity prices the GARCH-in-mean term is no longer significant. The additional variables seem to account for the increased volatility of the real exchange rate in the post-1983 period. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that changes in the Australian term spread and US-Australian interest rate differential have little or no explanatory power for the real exchange rate.     

Monetary Policy in Russia: Identifying exchange rate shocks

Russian monetary policy has failed persistently to achieve sustained low inflation, both in absolute terms and relative to the peer group of countries similarly exiting from Soviet-style central planning. This paper explores the reasons for this state of affairs by analysing the kind of monetary policy that has been pursued by the central bank during the period 1995 to 2009. Our contribution is to search for a possible transmission channel between the real interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, output growth and foreign reserve growth, after having controlled for the effect of oil price inflation. Using a vector autoregressive model in error-correction form and using sign restrictions methodology, we show that the monetary authorities’ failure to abate double-digit inflation appears to be driven by the policy of exchange rate targeting, as reflected in our identified exchange rate shocks.     

Minimac : A small integrated model of the financial and real sectors of the Swedish economy

The model emphasizes the financial part of the economy and the channels through which the central bank and the government can affect it. The model combines a complete flow of fund matrix with an income–expenditure scheme in a common framework. The consistency of the flow of funds matrix is achieved through residual determination of one asset/liability from each financial balance identity. The model describes the Swedish credit market after the abolition of credit market regulation. Thus the policy instruments included comprise – among others – the interest rate scale, the cash reserve requirement, the exchange rate, government consumption and differential tax rates but no direct regulation of bank advances or investment in government securities. The model mechanisms are illustrated with policy simulations. Those display, in some instances, processes which after some periods tend to reverse the intended effects of the original policy measure. They therefore point to the need for a strategy which involves a sequential use of several policy instruments.     

The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile

Selective capital controls tax only some components of capital flows. One of the rationales for such controls is that they increase the scope for an independent monetary policy, without taxing foreign direct investment and other long term flows. The first part of this paper offers a new framework to evaluate how selective capital controls might increase monetary autonomy, which considers two types of capital flows that coexist: the taxed and exempt flows. It is found that under free floating selective controls increase monetary autonomy, in the sense of allowing the authorities to set the path of the nominal exchange rate. But under predetermined exchange rate rules, the contribution of selective controls to monetary autonomy depends of the ability to reduce total inflows, which is an empirical matter. The second part describes the Chilean unremunerated reserve requirement (URR), a selective control introduced in June 1991 on a permanent basis, in a setting of predetermined exchange rates. This control collected substantial revenue, proving that it was relevant. An econometric model with data for 1987–1996 finds that substitution from the exempt short-term flows compensated reductions in taxed short-term flows, so the Chilean URR did not discourage total net short-term credit inflows to the private sector. This implies that the Chilean URR failed to contribute to monetary autonomy.