三大经济长波理论的比较研究

从19世纪末开始,经济学家们纷纷发现了资本主义经济发展中的一个规律性现象,即大体50~60年出现一次长期波动,由此也开启了学术界对"经济长波"这一命题长达一个世纪的研究与探讨。对于长波的存在性问题,目前学术界已基本达成共识,即在资本主义的经济发展中确实存在着长达50~60年的长周期波动现象。而对于长波形成的动因,现有的研究仍是众说纷纭,学者们由于选择的视角不同,往往得到不同甚至相反的结论。在这样的背景下,本文对国内外现有的长波理论进行了细致地归纳和梳理,并且按照研究视角的不同将现有研究分为三大类,即技术创新长波论、制度演进长波论以及内生机制长波论。在对这三大长波理论进行介绍、比较与评析的基础上,本文试图为经济长波理论的进一步发展提供一个可能的方向。     

长波理论的比较与创新

长波理论是过去一个世纪中最具争论性的理论之一。20世纪60年代末70年代初,长波研究复兴中形成了三个影响较大的长波理论派别,即由熊彼特开创的技术创新的长波理论、曼德尔构造的马克思主义长波理论及由戴维.戈登等提出的"社会积累结构"的长波理论。本文系统考察新熊彼特学派代表人物佩蕾斯进入新世纪以来发展的长波理论思想,并将其与马克思主义经典作家的长波理论进行比较。     

资本积累、社会结构与资本主义经济增长——积累的社会结构理论的视角

资本主义经济增长的长波是资本主义经济的一个典型事实,即在长期的发展过程中,资本主义经济表现出大约五十年左右一个轮回的长期增长与长期动荡和萧条周期性更迭。而一些美国激进经济学家批判的吸收马克思主义经济学、凯恩斯主义经济学和长波理论的成果,构建了"积累的社会结构"理论,对战后美国和世界资本主义的发展过程,以及现当代资本主义的特征提出了极具价值的研究。     

经济长波:现象、理论与展望

综合已有文献,对经济长波现象、经济长波理论的相关研究进行了综述,在此基础上提出了经济长波理论的未来研究方向。总结如下:经济长波现象即经济发展过程中存在长度为40~60年、平均为50年的经济周期;从价格等观察变量开始的单一精确计量在经济长波现象发现过程中发挥了相当重要的作用,但并未为经济长波存在提供确凿证据,综合多种因素的多元推论历史模型可用来阐释经济长波的存在性;对经济长波的界定以周期性这一本质特性为前提,从狭义向广义发展,即从单纯经济变量发展到经济-社会-制度因素的组合;学者们对过去200多年已发生5次经济长波取得了基本一致的认识,但是在确切年份上因方法和数据的差异而略有不同;创新、战争、核心技术要素、多要素平衡与失衡是经济长波产生的主要因素,历次经济长波一般会伴随着技术或关键要素、产品或服务、基础设施、产业聚集和组织结构的变化。未来研究可从产业结构变化的角度研究经济长波的发生机理。     

马克思的“第二条道路”及其对中国特色社会主义政治经济学方法论的启示

马克思在《<政治经济学批判>导言》中把政治经济学的方法总结为"由表象到抽象"和"由抽象到具体"两条道路,并认为第二条道路即"由抽象到具体"是科学正确的方法。马克思认为,分析经济形式必须用抽象力,以比较抽象的范畴作为逻辑起点,由抽象向具体逐渐过渡,剖析资本主义社会的经济发展规律,同时在演绎推理过程中不断以历史现实作为例证。中国特色社会主义政治经济学是对马克思政治经济学的继承和发展,在研究过程中应借鉴马克思"第二条道路"的逻辑方法,同时立足中国特色社会主义初级阶段的基本国情和改革发展实际,构建科学的中国特色社会主义政治经济学理论体系。     

中国化马克思主义政治经济学对象特征探析——基于马克思对政治经济学"现代史"和"形成史"问题的理解

马克思对资本主义经济关系"现代史"和"形成史"内涵及其关系的阐释,对理解《资本论》对象和体系结构,对开拓和创新中国化马克思主义政治经济学对象和体系结构都有着重要的理论和方法意义.马克思主义政治经济学中国化的百年历程,是以中国社会经济关系的变革和发展过程为前提、为对象的;中国化马克思主义政治经济学是以这一过程的不同社会经济关系变革和演进的"形成史"为对象特征的.三大"基本经济纲领"对"现代史"意义的理论探讨,也是以"形成史"阐释为基础和根据.中国化马克思主义政治经济学以"形成史"为对象特征,既是由中国社会经济关系的本质特征决定,也是中国共产党经济思想理论创新和理论创造的结晶,是中国共产党秉持与时俱进、守正创新的马克思主义理论风格和理论品质的结果.     

长期经济波动理论研究述评

关于长期经济波动,主要有三种代表性理论:基于熊彼特创新理论的"技术决定论",以戴维.戈登等提出的以"积累的社会结构("SSA)分析为核心的"制度决定论",以及曼德尔提出的长波理论。1980年代以来,我国学术界提出了以生产力和生产关系基本矛盾为分析框架的研究范式,并在诸多方面发展了长期经济波动理论。本文就相关研究进展作一评述,并提出了一些不同看法。     

论长波

资本积累过程存在着长期波动。经济长波是西方非主流经济学研究的一个重要课题。对长波内在机制的不同解释形成了三种影响较大的长波理论。但如果把积累率的波动置于长波分析的中心地位,则长波并非决定于单一因素,而是取决于技术、制度、市场等多种因素的共同作用。第二次世界大战后资本主义世界经历了第四次扩张长波,并于20世纪70年代转入长波下降阶段。对于80年代是否出现了新的扩张长波,左派学者有不同看法。本文认为,从20世纪80年代到2007年,在信息技术革命、新自由主义制度调整和经济全球化的共同推动下,以美国为主的发达国家确实经历了一次新的扩张长波。而2008—2009年的金融—经济危机则开启了萧条长波的新阶段。对于当前世界资本主义经济在长期波动中所处的历史阶段及其特征,我们应有恰当的认识和积极的应对。     

论建设中国特色社会主义政治经济学为何和如何借用西方经济学

随着资本主义市场经济兴起而产生的西方经济学,出生伊始便具有二重性:为资本主义市场经济制度提供理论支柱的辩护性和揭示资本主义市场经济内在联系和运行规律的科学性。19世纪30年代以后这种辩护性又演变成庸俗性。20世纪30年代以来的现代西方主流经济学主要是在资本主义制度不变的假设前提下研究市场经济一般,这些研究成果许多是积极的、有益的。中国特色社会主义政治经济学在现阶段主要是中国社会主义市场经济学,它以马克思主义政治经济学为指导,扎根于中国改革开放和社会主义现代化建设伟大实践。根据理论的政治性色彩,西方经济学的理论可以划分为政治性的经济理论、主干性的经济理论和基础性的经济理论,通过对这三类理论相应地实施"剔除术"、"整形术"和"移植术",吸收和融通其有益成分为创建中国特色社会主义政治经济学之用,将会有益于中国特色社会主义政治经济学发展繁荣。     

中国经济双循环的内外导向选择——贸易比较偏好视角北大核心CSSCI

中国目前正处在百年未有之大变局,深入认识其参与经济循环的内外导向选择,有助于加快建成"以国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局"。为此,本文构建了省际调出与出口比较偏好指数,利用中国七年30个省级行政区的投入产出表,考察了1987—2017年中国经济循环的内外导向选择,主要发现有:在全国层面,各省份的经济循环导向以国内经济大循环为主体,以2007年为"拐点",国内经济循环导向总体减弱,国际经济循环导向总体增强;沿海地区的经济循环导向在2017年之前以国际经济大循环为主体,而内陆地区的经济循环导向始终以国内经济大循环为主体,反映了中国梯度式对外开放政策的影响;各省份参与国内经济大循环的导向程度绝对差异不断扩大,反映了各省份在分工体系中的职能存在明显差异;资本密集型部门的经济循环导向以国内经济大循环为主体,而劳动密集型部门的经济循环导向以国际经济大循环为主体,反映了中国在国际市场中的比较优势存在部门差异;工业各部门参与国内经济大循环的导向程度绝对差异逐渐扩大,反映了工业各部门之间的分工程度不断深化。     

The existence,endogeneity, and synchronization of long waves: Structural time series model estimates

In the spirit of David Gordon's application of advanced econometric techniques to problems in political economy and his Interest in long waves, this paper develops a structural time series model for testing the existence, endogeneity, and synchronization of long waves in the output series for 11 countries. The results show a strong long wave pattern with a high degree of endogenous behavior in 8 of 11 GDP series. Strong evidence for the synchronization of long waves based on international transmission mechanisms is found, while weaker evidence exists for synchronization based on similar institutional structures. Other long wave hypotheses are also addressed     

Geo-Logics of Power: Disaster Capitalism,Himalayan Materialities,and the Geopolitical Economy of Reconstruction in Post-Earthquake Nepal

ABSTRACT

The 2015 earthquakes in Nepal killed more than 9,000 people, displaced millions of people and deeply affected the economy. The earthquakes and reconstructions processes also transformed Nepal into a complex terrain of geoeconomic accumulation and geopolitical manoeuvring, including major international capital flows, the promulgation of a new constitution, an economic blockade by India and the expansion of trade corridors with China. Building on critiques of ‘disaster capitalism’, we propose and mobilize the concept of ‘geo-logics of power’ to draw further attention to the materialities of geopolitical and geoeconomic processes shaping reconstruction in post-earthquake Nepal. Focusing on two trans-Himalayan corridors connecting Nepal and China, we argue that the Nepal experienced a particular form of disaster capitalism: one in which the geo-logics of power – including trans-Himalayan discourses, practices, and materialities – came to shape political and economic transformations of a country long portrayed as a ‘buffer’ state between Indian and China. More broadly, we suggest that geo-logics of power result from a combination of geopolitical and geoeconomic power dynamics informed by geological formations and associated socio-natural processes.     

Social Justice in Comparative Political Economy: Lessons from Habermas and the Contemporary German Case

This article critiques recent operationalisations of social justice theories in empirical research in comparative political economy from an epistemological entry point. It offers an alternative epistemic framework based on Habermas’s system and lifeworld distinction to reconcile normative theory with empirical research before developing a critical theory of social justice based on two principles: Nancy Fraser’s parity of participation and Hauke Brunkhorst’s notion that functional differentiation in systems cannot generate asymmetric moral standards. These principles are then operationalised for regimes of welfare capitalism before exploring the contemporary German labour market in these terms, drawing on original qualitative research. It demonstrates that parity of participation cannot be achieved when the moral duty to participate is asymmetrically applied. It concludes capitalism is inherently unjust in any variety due to the inequality of wealth and free movement of capital reinforcing the inequality of moral expectations characterising the lived experience of welfare-mediated labour markets. Therefore, accepting this inherent injustice and whether institutions of the welfare state exacerbate or mitigate it should be the central focus of future research on social justice in comparative political economy.     

马克思主义政治经济学理论体系的经典引证

马克思主义经典著作是一个整体,研究马克思主义经济学不应只限于《资本论》,应该从《共产党宣言》开始,到《〈政治经济学批判〉导言》,到《资本论》,再到《反杜林论》。马克思恩格斯为其著作写的序言及其书评,是学习马克思主义经典著作不能忽视的内容,许多深刻含义、写作意图、研究方法都是通过这些"序言"和"书评"揭示出来的。马克思完成的著作基本只是"狭义政治经济学",但从马克思主义经典著作的体系看,马克思主义经济学的理论体系是"广义政治经济学"。     

On the political economy of skill in the advanced industrial nations

The importance of education and training policy is being enhanced by its increasingly high profile as a competitive strategy in the age of global capitalism. This article argues that human–capital theory, because it objectifies skill and fails to uncover its social context, offers an inadequate framework for understanding the relationship between the economy and skill systems. An adequate economic framework for understanding changes in education and training systems must be linked to a theory of institutional change in the economy. The article used one such theory, in building on the contributions of the regulation school but concludes that, contra the ideology of post–Fordism and of liberal political economists, a high–wage/high–skills strategy is only one route for capital accumulation in the 1990s, and that this route will only be achieved through conflict. The article concludes that, this used alongside other policies, a progressive education strategy which could be linked with the usage of high skills in industry would have some chance of success in the current era.     

Chinese Capitalism and the Maritime Silk Road: A World-Systems Perspective

As China tries to catch up from a semi-peripheral status in the hierarchy of a capitalist world-system, three decades of fast economic growth have recently shown serious signs of capital glut, overproduction and decreasing returns to capital, indicating the beginning of a phase of contraction and stagnation in the long-cycles of capitalist accumulation. The combination of “capital logic” and “territorial logic” in Giovanni Arrighi’s framework gives both the Chinese state and Chinese capital strong incentives and pressure to actively engage in a “spatial fix” by reconfiguring its geographic vision in order to further capital accumulation and expansion on a larger spatial dimension, culminating in the “One Belt, One Road” Initiative, including the Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI). The official promotion of the MSRI hopes to revitalise the historical precedents of the “Silk Road” so that the modern-day hyper-connectivity across Asia, Africa and Europe will facilitate the formation of a China-led reorganised world economy, operating under open and equal participation, possibly leading to common development for all countries involved. However, the nature and impact of such a grandiose initiative, especially its core mission of “connectivity”, is still highly contingent on the hybrid nature of Chinese capitalism in the world-system and how China engages capitalism at the global scale.     

A real and monetary analysis of capitalism

Building on ideas of Joseph Schumpeter, this paper constructs and compares a real and a monetary model of capitalism. The paper’s thesis is that real and monetary analysis are both necessary for describing the capitalist cycle. The real model is in four parts. The first part is a simplified static Walrasian exchange. The second part uses a time dynamic to show price and productivity equilibrium over time. The third part defines surplus-value, capital, accumulation, profit and producer’s surplus. The fourth part defines economic evolution and long-term analysis. Each of the four parts has a corresponding Mathematica program and a table of sample data. The real model shows a relationship between long term average profit, GDP and capitalization. A monetary model is then constructed which empirically defines monetary and real products, the capital-market, the real economy and investment. The monetary model is first described under conditions of laissez-faire. The concepts of appreciation, overinvestment and the capitalist cycle are defined with the aid of the real model. Finally, the post laissez-faire capitalist cycle is described with an emphasis on the government policies of post 1980 capitalism. The conclusion of the paper—based on the real and monetary models—is that post 1980 capitalism changes but does not eliminate the capitalist cycle because government policies do not address over-investment, rather these policies abet over-investment.     

The rent disease: Achille Loria’s criticism to the capitalistic society

This paper is a reconstruction and a reconsideration of Achille Loria’s (1857–1943) economic and social thought, in particular his criticism of capitalism. Loria, a leader of the Italian and European economic science of his generation, was convinced that the true and most relevant conflict in the capitalistic society was that between rent and profit. Loria, following David Ricardo, considered this conflict much more radical than the profit-wages one, and therefore assigned to income redistribution a central place in his theory. Loria was an outstanding economist in the first part of his career (1780–1900), but underwent a sudden decline with the advent of the marginalist revolution, when his “classic” approach to political economy was considered obsolete and wrong. The paper claims that Loria’s system deserves to be reconsidered, and that his criticisms are particularly relevant in contemporary financial capitalism based again on rent seeking.     

究竟该怎样完整准确地理解马克思主义?——三评奚兆永先生的理论观点

论文从两个方面论证马克思主义有基本原理与非基本原理之分,反驳奚兆永先生对这种区分的否定;阐明产业资本是资本主义"普照的光",它决定着资本主义制度的社会性质,三卷《资本论》的逻辑结构是依次讲产业资本(工业资本)的生产过程、流通过程和生产总过程,反驳奚兆永先生对《资本论》逻辑结构的错解;进一步论证剩余价值理论和历史唯物主义是马克思的两大主要贡献,它使社会主义由空想变为科学,反驳奚兆永先生断言不是剩余价值理论而是"资本总公式"及其矛盾使社会主义走出黑暗中的摸索变为科学。对奚文中存在的其他多方面对马恩及毛泽东有关理论论述的错解、曲解和思维逻辑的混乱,也进行了辩驳。     

西方金融资本主义下的寄生阶级、债务通缩与大萧条——兼评迈克尔·赫德森的金融资本主义批判理论

金融资本生成于产业资本、商业资本和银行资本的垄断融合。在支配生产、流通和信用的基础上,金融资本通过定价权、金融投机、地租寻租、支配国债、滥用货币发行权等途径而建立一套寄生性的积累机制。随着金融资本对生产关系的全面支配,金融资本的寄生性积累也越来越系统化、自主化,造成的社会危机也越来越不容易从外部加以克服,但同时,金融资本内部自我否定的逻辑却表现得越来越强烈。金融资本的寄生性积累导致债务膨胀和产业萎缩相互加强的危机,即债务通缩危机。新自由主义量化宽松的反通缩政策,在一定程度上避免了旧版大萧条,却导致了更难以解决的新版大萧条。美国学者赫德森把对金融资本寄生性积累的批判纳入到从古典政治经学到马克思主义政治经济学的传统中,从金融资本的寄生性积累探讨西方经济、政治危机的根源,虽然其金融资本批判理论还因缺乏辩证逻辑而有一定的缺点,但是该理论基本的理论方向是值得肯定的。