The Geopolitics of China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative

China’s “One Belt, One Road” project is comprised of two components: the Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI) and the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB)—that were announced separately in 2013. Each component has the potential to transform the global geopolitical landscape through the construction of interrelated infrastructure projects including ports, highways, railways and pipelines. Such hard infrastructure requires the complementary construction of soft infrastructure, such as free trade and investment agreements, and other accords. We introduce a special section focusing specifically on the geopolitics of the MSRI that stems from a workshop hosted in November 2015 in Shanghai. The origins, scope and content of the MSRI are described, along with a summary of the current literature discussing the project, and dominant geopolitical representations. The MSRI is a geopolitical project that involves a number of actors (governments, private companies and Chinese state-owned enterprises) at a number of geographic scales (cities, provinces, states and continents). Arrghi’s twin logics of territorial and economic power help frame and connect the papers of the special section to illustrate the complexity and dynamism of the geopolitics of the MSRI. The articles provide insights into the geopolitics of a large connectivity project.     

India’s Economic and Strategic Perceptions of China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative

The Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI) is a part of China’s experiment in scaling up economic corridors across vast swathes of diverse economic geographies. China’s involvement in a large number of ongoing transport corridor projects has encouraged it to embark on the most ambitious of them all till date. The heterogeneity among the economic capacities and integrations of various regions constituting the MSRI, particularly in efficiency of infrastructure and ability to trade, is noticeable. This article underscores these variations as important determinants of competitiveness of the constituent regions and countries. India’s perceptions of the MSRI are significantly shaped by its lack of quality maritime infrastructure capacities that make it relatively uncompetitive vis-à-vis China, Europe and most of Southeast Asia; and the impression of the MSRI’s “China-centrality” emanating from lack of mention of non-China regional forums in the Chinese government’s vision statement; and absence of proactive measures from the Chinese leadership in establishing the MSRI’s multi-country character. The article argues that it is important for India to appreciate the geopolitical character of this unprecedented infrastructure initiative, which, while emphasizing Chinese interests, might not be inimical to India’s economic ambitions, provided India is able to address its domestic infrastructure imperatives.     

History,Space and Nature: Building Theory from the Exception

Uneven Development endeavours to derive a theory of uneven geographical development by putting in motion a ‘historical dialogue’ between Marx's critical theorisation of capitalism and the geograhical reality of capitalism at the close of the twentieth century, and by theorising the relations between material nature and the spatial dynamics of capitalist accumulation. The result, however, is a theory of uneven development predicated on a logical rather than a historical conception of capitalism, which furthermore supersedes the question of the production of nature in conceptualising the spatial dynamics of (contemporary) capitalism. This article argues for a re-theorisation of uneven geographical development that considers the production of nature, namely extractive industry, as a point of departure in theorising the spatial dynamics of contemporary capitalist accumulation, focusing briefly on the concentration and centralisation of capital.     

制度距离、相邻效应与双边贸易--基于“一带一路”国家空间面板模型的实证分析

制度在双边贸易中具有举足轻重的作用。文章首次将相邻效应引入传统的制度与贸易关系的分析框架,运用空间面板模型深入考察了制度距离、相邻效应对中国与“一带一路”国家双边贸易的影响。结果表明,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间在文化、法律、宏观经济制度以及微观经济制度方面的差异显著抑制了双边进出口贸易的发展,并且这种抑制作用在长期更为显著。进一步引入相邻效应的分析表明,中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间的双边贸易受到中国与沿线国家邻国之间贸易的制约,即相邻效应表现为竞争关系,并且无论是针对进口贸易还是出口贸易而言,中国与沿线国家之间的制度距离均强化了相邻效应的“竞争”作用,但上述作用在不同地区具有显著差异。因此,在推进“一带一路”战略时,中国需要考虑制定相关的配套政策来平衡中国与“一带一路”国家,特别是与这些两两相邻国家之间的双边贸易利益,以促进中国与各国双边贸易关系的良性发展。     

Probing China’s Twenty-First-Century Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI): An Examination of MSRI Narratives

This article reviews the literature on China’s twenty-first-century Maritime Silk Road initiative (MSRI) to highlight the narratives surrounding it, its central features, its potential objectives, and the challenges affecting its implementation. It demonstrates that there are numerous political and economic narratives about the MSRI. It further indicates Beijing’s aims to use the MSRI to achieve manifold economic and political ends. Distinct from other analyses, it stresses how Beijing sees the MSRI advancing diverse objectives at the sub-national level. It also makes clear that economics and politics are intimately related regarding the MSRI within China, in the Asia-Pacific Region, and outside the region. Another contribution of this review is to underscore the multi-scalar, multi-actor, and multi-dimensional challenges Beijing’s grand scheme faces. From a policy vantage point, this review suggests that some of the alarm about, and some of the more negative interpretations of, the MSRI are, at this point, misplaced or unwarranted. As far as China is concerned, the central policy implication is that China must actively manage the project to implement it fully. In terms of theoretical contribution, this piece shows the value of using political-economic lenses to reflect about what is transpiring as well as the MSRI’s potential political and economic consequences.     

Spatial correlation effect of China's outward foreign direct investment in countries along the One Belt and One Road

Promoted by both the “going out” policy and the “One Belt and One Road” (OBOR) Initiative, China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) has grown rapidly in the past two decades. A spatial network has gradually formed that facilitates global production, sales, and innovation. This paper studies the spatial correlation of China's OFDI network along the OBOR and its determinants. The block model analysis suggests that China's OFDI spatial network comprises four gradient sections. In addition, the analyses of quadratic assignment procedure and exponential random graph models demonstrate a tendency of agglomeration of China's OFDI, which may hinder the further development of its spatial correlation networks. Finally, we present some policy suggestions stemming from the study in the hope of helping both the government and firms to optimize their OFDI spatial layout strategy along the OBOR.     

Political aspects of the capital controversies and capitalist crises

The Cambridge controversies about the theory of capital were ultimately underpinned by a clash between two different visions of capitalism, the neoclassical view, according to which distribution depends on the supply and demand curves of capital and labor, and the post Keynesian view, according to which distribution depends on political and institutional factors instead. I shall argue that the distinction between “meritocratic capitalism” and “patrimonial capitalism,” which underpins the discussions surrounding Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century, is also connected to those two different visions of capitalism, which were behind the Cambridge controversies. These two visions of capitalism have important implications for our understanding of political power over workers, and also to our understanding of political power over land and its natural resources. The role of land and natural resources was not discussed in the Cambridge controversies, but is addressed in Piero Sraffa’s Production of Commodities, and is implied in Piketty’s inclusion of land in his definition of capital, which brings in a geographical dimension to our understanding of capitalism and capitalist crises, as I shall argue.     

究竟该怎样完整准确地理解马克思主义?——三评奚兆永先生的理论观点

论文从两个方面论证马克思主义有基本原理与非基本原理之分,反驳奚兆永先生对这种区分的否定;阐明产业资本是资本主义"普照的光",它决定着资本主义制度的社会性质,三卷《资本论》的逻辑结构是依次讲产业资本(工业资本)的生产过程、流通过程和生产总过程,反驳奚兆永先生对《资本论》逻辑结构的错解;进一步论证剩余价值理论和历史唯物主义是马克思的两大主要贡献,它使社会主义由空想变为科学,反驳奚兆永先生断言不是剩余价值理论而是"资本总公式"及其矛盾使社会主义走出黑暗中的摸索变为科学。对奚文中存在的其他多方面对马恩及毛泽东有关理论论述的错解、曲解和思维逻辑的混乱,也进行了辩驳。     

Marx and Ricardo on machinery: a critical note

This article critically discusses the important and relevant—not to mention controversial— views of Ricardo and Marx on the impact of machinery on labor productivity, the organization of production and the wages and employment prospects of the working class during the capitalism of their day. First, the article turns to Ricardo’s assessment of the introduction of machinery and its likely effects on the laborer and the rate of profit and accumulation—one which went through a substantial revision (and reversal) between the first and third editions of his Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. Then, we discuss Marx’s own critical analysis of the historical development of machinery and its impact on the labor process, the so-called “compensation principle,” and how the rising organic composition of capital ostensibly generates a “redundant or surplus-population” during the course of capitalist development. We highlight Marx’s intellectual debt to Ricardo, John Barton (and George Ramsay) insofar as his theory of technological unemployment is concerned. Lastly, the article summarizes the views of Ricardo and Marx and offers some concluding remarks.     

Accumulation by Conservation

Following the financial crisis and its aftermath, it is clear that the inherent contradictions of capitalist accumulation have become even more intense and plunged the global economy into unprecedented turmoil and urgency. Governments, business leaders and other elite agents are frantically searching for a new, more stable mode of accumulation. Arguably the most promising is what we call ‘Accumulation by Conservation’ (AbC): a mode of accumulation that takes the negative environmental contradictions of contemporary capitalism as its departure for a newfound ‘sustainable’ model of accumulation for the future. Under slogans such as payments for environmental services, the Green Economy, and The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity, public, private and non-governmental sectors seek ways to turn the non-material use of nature into capital that can simultaneously ‘save’ the environment and establish long-term modes of capital accumulation. In the paper, we conceptualise and interrogate the grand claim of AbC and argue that it should be seen as a denial of the negative environmental impacts of ‘business as usual’ capitalism. We evaluate AbC's attempt to compel nature to pay for itself and conclude by speculating whether this dynamic signals the impending end of the current global cycle of accumulation altogether.     

The Arrow-Debreu model: How math can hide a fatal conceptual error

I argue that math, like love, can cover a multitude of sins, and I use the neoclassical object of adoration, the Arrow-Debreu model, as the case in point. It is commonplace that the Arrow-Debreu (AD) model of general equilibrium does not describe the real world, but it is equally commonplace to accept it as representing the pure logic of the competitive capitalist economy in an idealized world free of transactions costs. I show that the AD model fails even as an idealized model; it actually mistakes the logic of pure capitalism. Unlike McKenzie’s model of idealized general equilibrium under constant returns to scale, Arrow and Debreu claim to have shown the existence of competitive equilibrium under decreasing returns to scale and positive pure profits. The AD model (again unlike the McKinzie model) needs to assign the profits to individuals and this is done using the notion of “ownership of the production set.” But this notion suffers from a fatal ambiguity. If Arrow and Debreu interpret it to mean “ownership of a corporation” then a simple argument in the form “labor can hire capital or capital can hire labor” defeats the alleged necessity of assigning residual claimancy to the corporation. A given corporation may or may not end up exploiting a set of production opportunities (represented by a production set) depending on whether it hires in labor and undertakes production or hires out its capital to others (all by assumption at the parametrically given prices). In the latter case, residual claimancy is elsewhere. There is no such property right as “ownership of a production set” in a private property market economy. The legal party which purchases or already owns all the inputs used up in production has the defensible legal claim on the outputs: there is no need to also “purchase the production set.” At any set of prices that allow positive pure profits, anyone in the idealized AD model could bid up the price of the inputs and thus try to reap a smaller but still positive profit. Therefore,pace Arrow and Debreu, there could be no equilibrium with positive pure profits. In the Appendix, the property rights fallacy that afflicts the AD model is shown to also afflict orthodox capital theory and corporate finance theory.     

公司投资如何响应"一带一路"倡议?—基于准自然实验的经验研究

"一带一路"倡议对中国及沿线国家所产生的宏观经济效应已经受到了广泛的关注,但微观层面的经济主体如何响应"一带一路"倡议却还缺乏深入的研究.文章利用"一带一路"倡议所产生的准自然实验变化,以2013?2016年我国上市公司为研究样本,考察公司投资如何响应"一带一路"倡议,并使用古代"丝绸之路"途经省份作为工具变量来进一步缓解内生性问题.双重差分方法的检验结果表明,在"一带一路"倡议产生影响的重点省份,上市公司积极响应该倡议的实施,其投资水平提高了10.11%;而且,公司投资对"一带一路"倡议的积极响应主要来自于全要素生产率较低和成本加成较低的公司.文章从公司投资决策的角度为"一带一路"倡议的经济后果提供了微观证据,这对于我们理解经济政策的真实效应及其后续改革具有一定的启示.     

“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国国家风险评级与对策研究

为了使中国企业在“走出去”的过程中合理识别和评估东道国的国家风险，提高国家间投资合作的效率，本文以中资企业对外投资中面临的国家风险为主要研究对象，构建了中国对外直接投资国家风险评价体系。从投入产出角度，运用超效率DEA模型与Malmquist指数相结合的分析方法，从静态与动态的时间角度对2014—2018年“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家风险进行实证分析。研究发现：从静态层面看，中南亚区域呈现较高的国家风险，我国应加强与东道国联系，重点关注东道国投资环境的变化；欧洲地区特别是中东欧国家更适合中国企业对外投资，合作规模有待进一步扩大；西亚地区投资风险两极分化，我国应密切关注高风险国家投资风险的隐患，并建立相应的补偿机制。从动态层面看，通过Malmquist指数分析可知，研究年份间“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家风险在逐步改善，国家管理的整体趋势向着良好的方向发展。基于分析结果，本文提出了相关的政策建议。     

长波理论的数理解析及其对新发展格局的启示——纪念我国著名马克思主义经济学家高峰先生

高峰先生是我国马克思主义政治经济学与现代资本主义研究领域的著名专家。先生视野开阔、涉猎广泛,在其众多的研究著述之中对长波理论的考察格外引人瞩目。本文系统地回顾了先生针对资本主义经济长波,从资本积累理论切入,所提出的"技术—制度—市场"三元分析框架。在此基础上,尝试构建一个包含着异质性资本的单一部门模型,以说明技术变迁和劳资关系对利润率以及积累率的影响,并且分析在产能过剩的情况下,外部市场对经济规模与利润总额的拉动作用,进而运用数理政治经济学的方法对三元分析框架进行新的解析。此外,结合先生对资本主义第五轮长波的考察,讨论了中国构建新发展格局的必然性,即由扩张长波转向萧条长波是决定中国经济由国际大循环转向国内大循环的关键因素之一。作为后生晚学,我们希望能够以接续研究的方式缅怀纪念高峰先生。     

超越“星球城市化”:中国城市研究的新方向

全球化和后工业社会背景下,全球范围的城市与区域联系更加紧密,多尺度、广联系的全球城市网络体系正在出现,城市发展的过程与逻辑发生重大变化,"星球城市化"的概念应运而生。文章在介绍"星球城市化"的相关概念及内涵基础上,聚焦我国改革开放以来城市发展与演变的整体表现,检视"星球城市化"理论对中国城市化过程的解释力。研究认为,我国40年快速城市化过程印证了"星球城市化"的诸多特征与表现。随着全球化的逐步推进和全球资本主义扩张的日渐深入,中国越来越多的城市和地方卷入到全球资本大循环过程,资本导向下的"空间修复"对原有下垫面进行了革命性的变革与颠覆。对于新时代的中国城市研究,文章认为一方面要分析"星球城市化"在中国城市化进程中的各种空间形式、表征内容、影响方式与响应机制等,探究空间资本化、资本在地化的发展机理与逻辑过程;另一方面要积极应对和处理"星球城市化"引致的各种矛盾、冲突和问题,为中国健康和可持续新型城镇化进程奠定基础。     

Anti-immigrant sentiment and the process of settlement among Mexican immigrants to the United States: Reflections on the current wave of Mexican immigrant bashing

After reviewing literature which correlates economic crises with immigrant scapegoating and shows the former functionality of Mexican undocumented immigrants for U.S. capitalism, I argue that the anti-immigrant sentiments arising globally today have a new dimension that is closely related to the restructuring of the world system as well as to the qualitatively different character of immigration. Immigrant bashing is partially a reaction to the “deterritorialization” and increasing delegitimization of the nation-state as a viable “encapsulating” entity. Such deterritorialization represents a qualitative change in immigration patterns: immi-grants from underdeveloped to core capitalist countries have progressively formed “daughter communities” and become settlers instead of temporary, circular migrants, thus becoming economically less functional for U.S. capital. At the same time, their cause has been taken up by Mexican-American political groups, making them increasingly dysfunctional in political terms.     

“Love of wealth” and economic growth

In a Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans growth framework it is shown that for an optimum a benevolent social planner cannot have an excessive “love of wealth”. With a “right” “love of wealth” an optimum exists and implies higher long‐run per‐capita capital, income, and consumption relative to the standard model. This has important implications for comparative development trajectories. The optimum implies dynamic efficiency with the possibility of getting arbitrarily close to the golden rule where long‐run per‐capita consumption is maximal. It is shown that the optimal path attains its steady state more slowly. Thus, the beneficial effects of love of wealth materialize later than in the standard model. Furthermore, the economy can be decentralized as a competitive private ownership economy. One can then identify “love of wealth” with the “spirit of capitalism.” The paper thus implies that one needs a “right” level of the “spirit of capitalism” to realize any beneficial effects for the long run.     

Gordon's accumulation theory: The highest stage of stadial theory

This essay examines the intellectual antecedents of David Gordon's social structure of accumulation (SSA) approach. It argues that Gordon's systematic treatment of long periods of growth and stagnation is the culmination of a long Marxist tradition which began early in the twentieth century with the work of Hilferding, Bukharin, and Lenin. Contemporary Marxist analyses of the recovery of capitalism from the great depression of the late nineteenth century parallel that developed by Gordon for the post-World War II period. Gordon's approach is genealogically linked to these turn of the century analyses through the work of Ernest Mandel on late capitalism and through the American monopoly capital school. Gordon's key contribution is to transform the early Marxist theory of the highest stage of capitalism into a general theory of capitalist stages     

“One Belt and One Road” and Free Trade Zones—China’s New Opening-up Initiatives

“One Belt and One Road” and Free Trade Zones are two of China’s new opening-up strategies developed in response to the changed domestic and international circumstances. Implementation of these strategies can provide China with a sounder market economic system and a better external environment. It can not only help China to further develop into a high income country, but also facilitate the industrialization and modernization of other developing countries.     

新疆丝绸之路经济带核心区建设探析

新疆得天独厚的区位优势、人文优势以及资源优势等使其具备成为丝绸之路经济带核心区的基础条件、优势和潜力,未来将成为我国新的经济增长极,在丝绸之路经济带建设中具有不可替代的地位。面对机遇与挑战,新疆应通过准确战略定位、创新政府管理、加强与周边国家的互联互通以及争取国家给予相应的倾斜政策来建设核心区。