俄蒙贸易互补性分析

为了探求俄蒙问贸易的互补性及双边贸易发展潜力,通过贸易结合度指数、显性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数、经常市场份额模型等指标和模型对俄蒙贸易进行深入的实证分析.结果证明,蒙古国已经摆脱了对俄罗斯出口市场的依赖,但对俄罗斯进口依赖很强.两国贸易互补性较差,出口额增长绝对依靠市场扩大效应,竞争提升效应很小甚至是负效应,主要是资源导向型增长,如何提升工业竞争能力,是决定两国进出口健康发展的决定因素.     

中国与泰国服务贸易竞争性与互补性分析

中泰两国一直保持着稳定健康持续的经贸关系.随着中国—东盟自由贸易区《服务贸易协议》的实施,中国与泰国在服务贸易领域面临更大的发展潜力和机会.对两国服务贸易竞争性与互补性进行比较和分析,可以为更好地把握与泰国服务贸易的重点和方向提供借鉴.本文运用显示性比较优势指数(RCA)、出口相似度指数、贸易互补性指数等对我国与泰国服务贸易的竞争性和互补性进行了分析,并根据分析的结论,针对性地提出了我国与泰国进行服务贸易的对策建议.     

浅析中美贸易摩擦之成因与对策分析——以中美贸易反倾销案为例

美国是中国的第二大贸易伙伴,中国是美国的第四大贸易伙伴。由于两国经济贸易结构的互补性,中美已经形成了“互相依赖,共同繁荣”的贸易格局。但是自中国入世后形成的巨额贸易顺差导致中美贸易摩擦的加剧,吸引了国内外经济学家对该问题的高度关注,对该问题的分析及为利益相关体进行针对性政策研究显得颇为重要。     

浅析中美贸易摩擦之成因与对策分析——以中美贸易反倾销案为例

美国是中国的第二大贸易伙伴,中国是美国的第四大贸易伙伴。由于两国经济贸易结构的互补性,中美已经形成了“互相依赖,共同繁荣”的贸易格局。但是自中国入世后形成的巨额贸易顺差导致中美贸易摩擦的加剧,吸引了国内外经济学家对该问题的高度关注,对该问题的分析及为利益相关体进行针对性政策研究显得颇为重要。     

中国与南非的经贸关系及发展前景——基于贸易互补性和竞争性的实证分析北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文运用CS、CC和出口相似度等贸易指数研究了中国和南非的贸易竞争性和互补性,发现两国贸易在总体上互补性要大于竞争性,这为两国建立更密切的经贸关系提供了经济动力,而金砖国家合作机制的深化为中国和南非的经贸关系发展提供了制度保障,中国和南非的经贸关系有良好的发展前景。     

中国与南非的经贸关系及发展前景——基于贸易互补性和竞争性的实证分析

本文运用CS、CC和出口相似度等贸易指数研究了中国和南非的贸易竞争性和互补性,发现两国贸易在总体上互补性要大于竞争性,这为两国建立更密切的经贸关系提供了经济动力,而金砖国家合作机制的深化为中国和南非的经贸关系发展提供了制度保障,中国和南非的经贸关系有良好的发展前景。     

中美技术贸易国际竞争力比较研究

随着全球经济的快速发展,国际贸易面临新的机遇与挑战,我国国际贸易发展模式从量向质的转变显得尤为重要。运用国际市场占有率(IMS)指数、显示性比较优势指数(RCA)、出口技术复杂度指数(ES)对中美两国技术贸易国际竞争力进行比较研究,并从技术贸易总体和细分行业,技术贸易数量和质量两个方面对中美两国技术贸易国际竞争力进行测算分析。研究显示:我国软技术贸易远落后于美国发展水平,尤其是细分行业中知识产权发展水平较低;硬技术贸易和美国相比发展较快,在全球市场上具有比较优势,细分行业中的计算机、电子通讯行业具有较强的竞争优势,而航空航天技术、医药品等行业弱势明显。     

中国对美国出口贸易影响因素的计量分析

随着经济全球化的到来,中美贸易规模发生了巨大的变化,尤其是2001年中国加入WTO以来,中美贸易关系在总体发展的同时,不断上演变奏插曲=除了反倾销等惯用的贸易救济措施和迫使人民币升值的策略,美国开始采用不同以往的方式和手段,以对中国造成更大的压力,实现自身的经济和政治目的。由于中国对美的对外贸易依存度很高,因此,有必要深入研究影响中国向美国出口的因素。根据传统国际贸易理论,影响一国出口的因素有：进口国GDP规模、出口商品价格、进出口国之间的汇率。结合到中美两国的实际情况,影响中国向美国出口的因素还有：中国劳动力工资水平、美国内部平均失业率、通过建立中国对美国出口贸易的计量模型,运用多元回归分析方法对影响中国对美国出口贸易的因素进行分析,得出影响中国对美出口的主要因素有：美国GDP规模、中国零售价格指数、中国劳动力平均工资指数、美元对人民币汇率。并试图据此结论找到发展中美贸易的对策。     

中日农产品贸易发展动态与互补性分析

本文选取1990-2012年UN Comtrade贸易数据为样本,采用贸易强度指数、贸易互补指数、贸易专业化指数等指标,对中日农产品贸易强度和贸易互补性进行分析,发现两国农产品贸易联系紧密,中国在日本农产品贸易出口中的地位更加显著;较强互补关系主要由个别农产品所致;产业间贸易占主导地位,产业内贸易水平较低。本文认为,尽管日本对部分农产品设置了非常高的关税壁垒,但中日农产品的贸易联系仍然紧密,今后中日两国应加强农业合作和相互投资,扩大互补性农产品出口,提高双边农产品贸易的可持续性。     

中国与尼日利亚贸易互补性分析

自进入21世纪以来,中国和尼日利亚之间的经贸关系得到了快速发展,中尼作为两个发展中大国,均拥有巨大的市场潜力,对两国的经贸现状和潜力进行研究分析具有重要的现实意义.本文运用贸易结合度指数、显示性比较优势指数以及贸易互补性指数对中尼两国的贸易现状进行了分析.结果显示,中尼两国的出口产品可以优势互补,两国间的贸易具有较强的互补性且互补性在不断增强,两国贸易发展潜力巨大.     

政府支持企业技术创新所面临的风险研究——以ATP计划的废除为例

从计划评估的角度,通过对美国联邦政府支持企业技术创新的典型案例ATP进行研究,发现该计划被废除主要是因为制度合理性以及执行有效性方面的争议,进而得出结论:我国制定类似的计划应具备项目的针对性、互补性、有效性以及公平性等基本特性。     

贸易统计差异与中美贸易平衡问题

本文研究发现(1)中美进出口计价方式不同和运输时滞导致双边贸易统计数据存在差异是自然的。(2)参照剔除香港转口毛利后中美贸易新估计值,1995—2003年美国对华出口低估年均在24%以上,从华进口高估年均在35%以上,而中国对美出口低估年均在20%以上,从美进口相对没变。(3)考虑服务贸易后,美中商品与服务贸易逆差估计值与中国对美贸易顺差新估计值已相当接近。上述结果得到IMF数据的证实。(4)外商在华直接投资增加会造成中国对美出口增加、对美贸易顺差增加。依据中美两国月度数据计量的结论是相一致的。这一结果证实中美贸易平衡问题已超越中美两国贸易范围而成为外商在华直接投资所引致的贸易逆差转移问题。剔除外资企业进出口贡献及贸易统计差异后,中国对美贸易估计值已非常趋近于美国对华贸易估计值。     

Understanding the U.S.-China Trade War

ABSTRACT

Three major concerns drove the U.S. into initiating the trade war, and they are (a) the concern that China’s chronically large trade surplus was depressing job creation in the U.S. (b) the concern that China was using illegal and unfair methods to acquire U.S. technology at an effectively discounted price; and (c) the concern that China seeks to weaken U.S. national security and its international standing. On the dispute over China’s exchange rate and trade imbalance, the first conclusion is that it was marked by analytical confusion over the meaning of the term ‘equilibrium exchange rate’. The second conclusion is that China’s trade imbalance reflects the economic conditions in both China and U.S., and that the efficient and fair solution of the problem requires policy changes in both countries. On the industrial policy dispute, the first conclusion is that the issue of forced technology transfer is largely a dispute about China using its market power to benefit itself at the expense of its trade partners. The second conclusion is that China’s use of market power can last only until the other large countries could unite and retaliate as a group. The inevitability of retaliation means that China should replace the joint-venture (JV) mechanism for technological diffusion with other ways to strengthen its technological capability. On the U.S. concern about whether China trade weakens its national security, the first conclusion is that the notion of national security that is commonly adopted in the U.S. trade policy debate is ignorant about the primary determinants of U.S. capability in innovation. By focusing instead mainly on how to hold down China technologically, the long-run outcome will be a technologically weaker U.S. and hence, a more vulnerable U.S. The second conclusion is that the U.S. must identify a clear, short list of critical technologies and critical infrastructure for the recently reformed Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to cover, and update this list constantly. Otherwise, the broad and changing nature of notions about national security would allow the bureaucratically driven phenomenon of mission-creep to steadily expand the coverage of the CFIUS process, thereby steadily rendering CFIUS to be operationally capricious. Our principal policy suggestion to China is that, because China’s economy in 2018 is very different from that in 1978 (e.g. many parts of China now look like Singapore and China is Africa’s biggest donor), there should be more reciprocity in China’s trade and investment relations with the advanced economies despite China’s status as a developing economy under WTO rules. Our principal policy suggestion to President Trump is to stop equating strategic competition with economic competition. Strategic competition is normally a zero-sum game. While fair economic competition is usually a zero-sum game in the short run, it generally creates a win-win outcome in the long run.     

中美制造业双边贸易对美国相对工资差距的影响研究*

在新古典贸易理论一般均衡的框架之下,运用1997-2014年中美两国的投入产出、贸易和工资数据,本文定量考察了中美制造业产品的双边贸易同美国制造业相对工资差距的关系。结果发现,美国从中国的净进口对美国制造业非熟练劳动力和熟练劳动力相对工资差距扩大存在影响,但影响幅度较小,贸易并不是引起相对收入差距扩大的唯一原因。但随着中美双边制造业贸易的进一步发展,美中贸易对美国工资差距的影响可能越来越大,以保护非熟练劳动力为名对中国产品实施贸易限制的呼声将会更高。     

直接投资引致的美中贸易逆差:经验研究

运用基于误差修正模型的格兰杰因果关系检验模型,在商品分类层面研究关中贸易逆差与关国对华直接投资的内在联系。结果显示：从长期和短期来看,中国制成品的出口都是关中贸易逆差的“因”,中国制成品的出口与关国对华直接投资之间具有显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,因此关国进入中国的FDI,尤其是进入制造业的FDI越多,美中贸易逆差就越大;美中贸易逆差是结构性的,它不仅不会在短期内消除,而且会随着美国劳动密集型产业向中国的进一步转移而加剧。     

逆周期的贸易政策与福利分配

2008年金融危机以来,全球逆周期的贸易政策盛行。为了探究逆周期贸易政策对双方福利分配的影响,本文在巴格维尔和斯泰格解释发达经济体之间逆周期贸易政策最优选择模型的基础上,构建了一个2×2×2模型,假定两国商品的需求价格弹性不同,首次在理论上证明了发达国家(如美国)和发展中国家(如中国)之间的逆周期贸易政策取向和福利分配,并依据经验数据证实了自由贸易政策对中美双方来说都是帕累托改进,但中国的福利增进水平低于美国的福利增进水平;而在逆周期贸易政策下,美国和中国通过贸易获得的福利增进水平之差进一步扩大。     

U.S.-China Economic and Political Relations: Youths’ Perceptions

This paper is a study of the perceptions of young adults in the U.S. and China on the relations between the two nations. We conducted a case study by distributing a 17 question survey to 201 American undergraduate students (NYC) and 164 Chinese undergraduate students (Shanghai). The questions probed their views of U.S. and China’s economic and political systems, the future economic growth and political power in the world of the two nations, and the future political and economic relations between the two powers. The results of our study reveal a number of important perceptions that both U.S. and Chinese students have, some being similar and others being in sharp contrast. Most students in both countries view future political and economic relations between the U.S. and China predominantly as cooperative but only based on each nation’s self-interests. Both Chinese and American students agree that China is gaining political strength and economic influence among the advanced and the emerging nations of the world. While most of the U.S. students believe that China has been and will continue to grow at a much faster rate than the U.S., Chinese students are more likely to believe that this rate of growth is unsustainable. The results from our survey are compared and contrasted to the findings of national surveys for both countries. We believe that the study provides valuable insights into the similarities and differences in viewpoints of the next generation of adults in both nations about future U.S.-China relations.     

美中贸易收支与人民币汇率关系:实证分析

针对美中贸易收支与人民币汇率问题,经研究发现,汇率变动对贸易收支的影响是值得怀疑的,仅仅依靠人民币汇率变动是无法解决美中贸易逆差问题的。1994—2002年年度数据实证显示,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率(名义或实际汇率)之间没有稳定的关系;1998—2003年月度数据计量表明,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系。并且,依据美中两国月度统计数据计量的结论是相一致的。因此,“人民币升值论”或许更多的是基于政治而非经济因素,人民币汇率浮动并不能解决美中贸易逆差问题。     

生产分工视角的中国对美国货物出口竞争力验证

考虑生产分工对中美间经贸联系程度、贸易规模和结构的影响,基于生产分工下价值链视角,构建出口竞争力测度指标体系,验证中国对美国货物出口竞争力。结果显示:2016年及之前,中国仅在杂项制品大类上,对美国显示出较强出口竞争力,机械和运输设备、动物和植物油、油脂和蜡我国具有比较优势,化学成品及有关产品、按原料分类的制成品双方竞争性较强,其余大类上,中国对美国出口竞争力不具优势。引入其他国家作对比的分析结果表明:中国对对比国家均无显著出口竞争力,而且对美国出口具有单价优势的资本技术密集型产品,对这些国家出口多缺乏单价优势,而2017年以来对美国和对比国家的贸易变化,进一步勾画出中国对美国货物出口竞争力不足。在生产分工主导全球产业发展背景下,提升我国在全球生产分工中的参与地位,宜强化自主技术研发、提升外资质量和技术外溢、加快"走出去"学习先进技术。     

Trade development between China and countries along the Belt and Road: A spatial econometric analysis based on trade competitiveness and complementarity

This paper empirically analyses the effect of trade competitiveness and complementarity on the trade development between China and the countries along the Belt and Road (B&R). The study first measures the trade competitiveness and the complementarity between China and the countries along the B&R by using the trade competitiveness coefficient (TCC) and the trade complementarity index (TCI). Then a spatial gravity model is constructed to analyse the effect of trade competitiveness and complementarity on trade development between China and the countries along the B&R. We use generalized method of moments (GMM) and spatial filtering technology to verify the robustness of the model. The results show that the GDP of China and the countries along the B&R, the land area of countries along the B&R, trade complementarity, common language, free trade agreements (FTA), and the B&R Initiative significantly promote the trade development between China and the countries along the B&R, whereas the geographical distance between countries and trade competitiveness significantly inhibit it. Finally, to promote the trade development between China and the countries along the B&R, the present paper puts forward suggestions including improving trade promotion policies between China and the countries along the B&R and vigorously expanding cooperation with complementary industries in the countries along the B&R to enhance trade dependence.