在岸与离岸人民币汇率动态研究——基于美元因素和套利因素的视角

在全球宏观环境背景下,研究在岸与离岸人民币汇率的联动机制可以为扩大我国金融市场对外开放、推动人民币国际化以及防范化解金融风险提供参考和理论依据。本文借鉴Verdelhan(2018)的研究,通过VECM-BEKK-GARCH模型研究了在岸与离岸人民币汇率间均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应中美元因素及套利因素的作用。结果发现:(1)“8·11”汇改后离岸人民币汇率对在岸人民币汇率的影响在均值溢出和波动溢出方面都显著上升,而在岸人民币汇率对离岸人民币汇率的波动溢出能力也开始出现,两个市场的一体性大幅提高;(2)美元因素和套利因素对在岸人民币汇率的影响越来越强,美元因素的影响依然要强于套利因素,这也基本符合前期研究中美元因素起主导作用的结论;(3)以美元因素和套利因素为代表的全球系统性变异因素会影响离岸市场向在岸市场的冲击传导以及在岸人民币市场向离岸人民币市场的波动传导。     

中国艺术品投资收益:离岸与在岸市场的特征和互动

文物艺术品既是一个国家的历史印记和文化瑰宝,也是情感资产和动产。本文基于2000-2017年全球艺术品核心市场——北京、香港、纽约和伦敦核心拍卖行中国书画的微观数据,使用特征价格法构建全球中国艺术品市场价格指数,展示全球中国艺术品拍卖市场发展的全貌,同时创新性地使用重复交易数据探讨离岸和在岸中国艺术品市场投资特征和互动关系。研究表明:北京和香港市场作为中国艺术品最大的在岸和离岸拍卖市场价格相互联动,走势基本一致;艺术品财务收益和精神回报是艺术品投资收藏和消费的主要原因,不同市场间财务收益和风险分散的差异是艺术品市场资产配置和资金流动的动力;纽约和伦敦市场中国艺术品投资收益率低于北京和香港,香港是全球中国艺术品投资收益率最高的地区,重复交易中的北京-香港交易策略占优,离岸香港市场得天独厚的环境优势使香港中国艺术品市场未来发展前景可期。     

人民币离岸债券信用风险实证评估研究

近年来,人民币离岸债券市场发展迅速,其已成为发展最为成熟的人民币离岸子市场。目前,信用风险是人民币离岸债券面临的主要风险。本文以香港人民币离岸债券市场为例,运用KMV模型对人民币离岸债券信用风险进行了实证评估,观察和比较了不同主体发行的债券信用风险,分析了现阶段人民币离岸债券信用风险程度。     

我国离岸金融的区域发展比较研究

随着我国近几年区域经济和金融市场的快速发展,国内发展离岸金融的呼声日益高涨,一些省市纷纷着手开展离岸金融业务。本文从地理区位、经济发展、金融环境和政策支持四个方面对已获得批准试点离岸金融业务的深圳、上海、天津滨海新区和海南四个省市和地区进行比较研究,旨在明确我国各区域发展离岸金融的优势与劣势,并从政府推动、模式选择、区域选择、完善监管等方面提出相关政策建议。     

浅析离岸金融与离岸账户、NRA账户

随着经济金融全球化、一体化的发展,以离岸账户、非居民机构账户为载体的离岸金融迅速发展。本文阐述了当前我国离岸金融的管理现状,分析了离岸账户和非居民机构账户存在的区别与联系,指出非居民机构账户可基本实现离岸账户的功能,提出了促进离岸金融规范有序发展的政策建议。     

The Deepwater Horizon explosion: non-technical skills,safety culture,and system complexity

The explosion and destruction of the Deepwater Horizon (DH) was a watershed moment for safety management in the US oil and gas industry. The 2011 National Oil Spill Commission investigation identified a range of operational behaviours and underlying safety management problems that were causal to the mishap. Yet, to date these have not been systematically considered within a human factors framework. To achieve this, we draw upon two applied psychology domains that are highly influential within safety research. First, we apply non-technical skills (NTS) (social and cognitive skills that underpin safe performance in complex work environments) theorem to understand operational activities in the lead-up and occurrence of the well blowout. NTS research is used to develop interventions for training and observing safety behaviours (e.g. decision-making, teamwork). Second, we apply safety culture theory to understand how the organisational and industry environment shaped the management of risk. Safety culture research is used to understand and change the socio-technical constraints and enablers of safety activity in high-risk workplaces. Finally, to integrate these perspectives, we take a systems-thinking perspective to understand the mishap. A common critique of accident narratives is their failure to systematically consider how the components of an incident interact together to escalate risk. From a systems-thinking perspective, understanding the interactions leading to the DH mishap is crucial for ensuring interventions are effective in preventing future mishaps. We develop an accident model that captures the various interactions and system factors leading to the blowout.     

自由贸易港需要什么样的金融服务？——再论FT账户和海南自由贸易港的账户选择问题

2025年海南全岛封关运作、实现“一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由”后,海南自由贸易港市场主体及其商品、劳务和金融资产都将具有离岸法律属性,遵守以《自由港法》为核心的离岸法律法规,既有的内地在岸银行账户体系,以及FT账户体系都将无法满足为海南市场主体及其离岸经济活动提供金融服务和基础设施支持的要求,有必要尽快着手建立适应海南自由港经济金融活动需求的,独立于内地既有银行账户体系,包含海南自由港货币当局、商业银行和其他相关金融机构在内,设计清晰、系统简洁、功能完备的海南离岸银行账户体系。同时,在账户规则、监督管理、金融市场建设、中央银行货币发行和其他微宏观审慎管理,以及配套基础设施上抓紧研究方案,尽早着手设计、建设和模拟运行,以期在中央宣布海南全岛封关运作后,能及时投入运行,为全岛封关运作后的海南经济活动提供相应的金融服务和基础设施支持。基于相关规划和设想,本文做学术和学理探讨。     

自由贸易港需要什么样的金融服务？——再论FT账户和海南自由贸易港的账户选择问题

2025年海南全岛封关运作、实现“一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由”后,海南自由贸易港市场主体及其商品、劳务和金融资产都将具有离岸法律属性,遵守以《自由港法》为核心的离岸法律法规,既有的内地在岸银行账户体系,以及FT账户体系都将无法满足为海南市场主体及其离岸经济活动提供金融服务和基础设施支持的要求,有必要尽快着手建立适应海南自由港经济金融活动需求的,独立于内地既有银行账户体系,包含海南自由港货币当局、商业银行和其他相关金融机构在内,设计清晰、系统简洁、功能完备的海南离岸银行账户体系。同时,在账户规则、监督管理、金融市场建设、中央银行货币发行和其他微宏观审慎管理,以及配套基础设施上抓紧研究方案,尽早着手设计、建设和模拟运行,以期在中央宣布海南全岛封关运作后,能及时投入运行,为全岛封关运作后的海南经济活动提供相应的金融服务和基础设施支持。基于相关规划和设想,本文做学术和学理探讨。     

离岸外包对中国就业结构影响研究——基于中国工业面板数据的实证分析

本文利用中国工业行业面板数据实证分析参与离岸外包对不同技术密集型行业就业结构的影响,研究结果显示：离岸外包对我国就业存在正效应,但存在行业差异,对熟练劳动密集型行业影响较强.外包对就业结构影响不显著,对熟练劳动密集型行业熟练劳动就业有正效应,对非熟练劳动密集型行业熟练劳动就业有负效应.因此笔者认为,要增加对熟练劳动密集型行业承接外包的扶持力度,提升企业在全球价值链分工中的地位,加快产业结构升级,改善就业结构.     

离岸市场对货币主权国金融市场的影响分析——基于亚洲美元市场的实证研究

离岸金融市场受益于税收优惠及高度自由化的政策环境,近年来规模不断扩大,在国际金融市场上的重要性逐步提升。与此同时,离岸市场资金短借长贷的特点也使得国际金融市场变得更加脆弱。本文利用亚洲美元市场数据,运用计量模型就离岸市场对货币主权国金融市场的冲击进行了实证分析。研究表明,在离岸金融市场繁荣发展阶段,离岸市场的波动对货币主权国的冲击影响比较大,此阶段应是监管部门风险调控的关键时期。     

商业银行市场风险压力测试研究

2007年起始的全球金融危机暴露了银行业对压力时期的市场风险预测失灵。危机后,西方国家通过压力测试来评估银行的资本充足状况。这一举措起到了恢复市场信心的作用。因为影响市场的风险因素众多,所以市场风险压力测试有别于其他风险类别的压力测试。虽然市场风险压力测试在学术领域、监管层面和实际应用中都得到了一定程度的研究与发展,然而当前压力测试方法还存在诸多不足,如不能提供压力情景可能性分析、无法涵盖模型外风险因素的测度、受限于产品定价模型的假设等。因此,在未来发展中应更加关注压力测试结果在银行的运用,及充分考虑尚未被普遍纳入压力情景的隐性风险因素。     

The relationship between risk control imperative and perceived causation: the case of product counterfeiting in China

The counterfeiting of safety critical products such as pharmaceuticals is a significant risk to public safety, but the literature suggests that much of the causation of counterfeiting is endogenous: the decisions of legitimate producers and consumers facilitate or incentivize the manufacture of counterfeits. This study examined what effect the perceived causation of counterfeiting risk (both the causes of counterfeiting, and the consequences caused by counterfeiting) had on the risk control imperative: the belief that more resources should be allocated to controlling this risk. This involved a questionnaire survey of individuals in China, asking them to respond to the risks arising from the counterfeiting of specific safety-critical product types. The study found that although some causes of counterfeiting were emphasized much more strongly than others (notably the failure of the authorities, profiteering among legitimate producers and the presence of criminal organizations), the less emphasized causes were still judged as being relevant. The study found that the association between the risk control imperative and both the perceived scale of risk and its causal origins varied across different product types. In one case, the scale of risk was virtually unrelated to control imperative, but in all cases, at least one of the causal factors, and at least one of the consequential factors, explained variation in control imperative. A qualitative comparative analysis also indicated specifically that control imperative was lower if an actor who was strongly implicated in the cause of the risks was also a bearer of the risks.     

The politics and economics of offshore outsourcing

This paper reviews the political uproar over offshore outsourcing connected with the release of the Economic Report of the President (ERP) in February 2004, examines the differing ways in which economists and non-economists talk about offshore outsourcing, and assesses the empirical evidence on the importance of offshore outsourcing in accounting for the weak labor market from 2001 to 2004. Even with important gaps in the data, the empirical literature is able to conclude that offshore outsourcing is unlikely to have accounted for a meaningful part of the job losses in the recent downturn or contributed much to the slow labor market rebound. The empirical evidence to date, while still tentative, actually suggests that increased employment in the overseas affiliates of US multinationals is associated with more employment in the US parent rather than less.     

Managing safety risks in helicopter maritime operations

Nowadays, helicopters have been used in maritime transportation to serve offshore platforms. This paper outlines methodology for assessing safety risks by operating in the vicinity of helidecks. During each flight, decisions must be made regarding the events that involve interactions between the four safety risk elements – the pilot in command, the aircraft, the environment and the operation. This paper evaluates helicopter crash statistics based on region and flight phase. Data collected were used for developing methodology for computing the helicopter impact frequency into facility of interest. The analysis for helicopter impact frequency calculations is based on number of operations, crash rate, frequency, average length of flight and crash area. Furthermore, the conclusion was defined based on future measurements for helicopter accidents mitigation or reduction. The presented paper contributes to safety risk assessment in helicopter maritime operations.     

香港人民币离岸市场对内地货币供应量的影响——基于状态空间模型的时变参数分析

人民币离岸市场对在岸市场的影响值得关注。本文运用状态空间模型,估算了当前香港人民币离岸市场对内地货币供应量的影响,并提出了相应的政策建议。     

离岸金融中心对华返程投资问题探析

离岸金融中心对华返程投资日益增多,对我国经济发展、金融稳定、社会公正等方面追成了负面影响.应疏堵结合,多方协作,完善公司法律,改进税制,化解境内融资上市障碍,健全返程投资监测,以引导规范返程投资,避免其潜在风险的扩大.     

Evaluation of psychosocial and organizational factors in offshore safety: a comparative study

This study compares UK and Norwegian offshore workers' evaluations of social and organizational factors that can have an impact upon safety on offshore installations. A total of 1138 Norwegian (87% response rate) and 622 UK workers (40% response rate) responded to a self-completion questionnaire, which was distributed to 18 installations in February/March 1994. The questionnaire contained six scales that were suitable and relevant for the purposes of comparison. These scales measured ‘risk perception’, ‘satisfaction with safety measures’, ‘perceptions of the job situation’, ‘attitudes to safety’, ‘perceptions of others' commitment to safety’ and ‘perceptions of social support’. The data show clear differences in how UK and Norwegian workers evaluate various social and organizational factors that can have an impact upon safety, however, eta² analysis indicated that for most of the scales ‘installation’ explained a greater percentage of the variance than sector. The exceptions to this were scales measuring ‘safety attitudes’ where both sector and installation contributed equally to the effects. Although the results from the ‘safety attitudes’ scales should be interpreted with caution (due to low internal reliability), it is possible that they are tapping into more deeply held beliefs about the nature of safety, e.g. ‘fatalism’ and the ‘causes of accidents’. In contrast, the other scales are measuring factors directly related to the working environment such as perceptions of risk and satisfaction with safety measures on the installation. These may reflect the prevailing ‘safety climate’ or ‘atmosphere’ on the installations surveyed, whereas constructs such as ‘fatalism’, etc. may be reflections of underlying ‘cultural’ values. Recognizing the existence of different ‘safety cultures’ and understanding the processes which lie behind them could have implications for safety management in an industry which is highly international in nature and in which workers' are often required to work in foreign countries for varying periods of time.     

香港人民币离岸中心发展的机遇与挑战

香港人民币离岸中心建设已成为高层共识,前景光明,并已取得初步成果。它与内地的金融改革是协同推进的,有助于巩固香港金融中心地位,促进东亚经贸繁荣。来自其他国际金融中心的竞争,以及与大陆金融市场在利率、汇率等核心金融指标上的差异,是香港人民币离岸中心发展的重要挑战。展望其发展,有如下建议:采取适当的财政货币手段化解离岸与在岸市场的利率和汇率差异;循序渐进、逐步完善香港人民币离岸市场的货币功能;打通人民币"回流"和"外循环"的通道,支持香港成为全球人民币资产的交易、清算和定价中心。     

The role of numeric and statistical content on risk perception in infographics about road safety

Abstract

Numbers saturate news coverage and health and risk messaging. But as our expertise in the creation of statistical information increases, the ability to use those statistics in decision making remains frustratingly inadequate. There has been a wealth of research related to how to train people to better use the numbers they interact with on a daily basis. Far less research, however, explores the appropriate way to use numbers in communication. Two experiments explored the role of numbers in risk communication infographics related to road safety while driving. Experiment 1 found that the presence of numbers influence risk perception, but whether those numbers reflect accurate statistics or random numbers does not change their influence. Experiment 2 found that removing all statistics entirely from infographics and replacing them with linguistic gist representations of the numbers (i.e. words like ‘some’, ‘many’, ‘none’) increased risk perception even though people found the infographics to be less informative than the ones containing numbers. The results suggest that the gist representations of the numbers in the context of the infographics are equivalent regardless of their value, such that the very presence of statistics influences judgment and risk perception but not their meaning. They also suggest that people do not always realize how they are using statistical information in their judgement and decision making process.     

U.S. Banking Sector Operational Losses and the Macroeconomic Environment

Using supervisory data from large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs), we find that BHCs incur more operational losses in adverse macroeconomic conditions driven significantly by the higher frequency and severity of tail events. Among different operational risk types, we find that losses from BHCs' failure to meet obligations to clients or from the design of their products are particularly countercyclical. We also show that larger and more leveraged BHCs have a higher macroeconomic sensitivity of operational risk. Overall, our findings provide new evidence regarding U.S. banking organizations' exposure to macroeconomic shocks with implications for risk management practices and supervisory policy.