人口老龄化对城乡收入不平等的影响效应研究——基于中国二元经济结构演变的视角

理论分析表明,二元经济结构下人口老龄化能够通过要素禀赋结构调整和社会福利改善对城乡居民收入产生不同的收入效应和替代效应,进而影响城乡收入不平等。利用中国2000-2014年省际面板数据进行实证检验发现：中国人口老龄化显著的扩大了城乡收入不平等,但要素禀赋结构和社会福利水平对老龄化条件下的城乡收入不平等影响效应不同;随着对老年人口供养负担的加重,社会福利支出对老龄化条件下的城乡收入不平等主要表现为替代效应,城市偏向的社会福利支出使得农村因照料老人引起的劳动力供给减少扩大了城乡收入不平等;而要素禀赋结构的转变则使得老龄化主要表现为收入效应,劳动力相对资本的稀缺性导致转移劳动力工资上涨,从而缩小了城乡收入不平等;随着老龄化深化,通过社会福利改善和要素禀赋结构调整能够有效抵消老龄化对城乡收入不平等的负面影响;研究也证实了二元经济结构的优化和农业规模化经营对城乡收入不平等的缩小作用,而失业率上升和城乡投资差距却会加剧城乡收入不平等。     

Estimating flexible consumption functions for urban and rural households in China

There are few comprehensive studies of household consumption in China that covers all commodities due to data restrictions. This prevents the calculation of inequality indices based on consumption. This lack of coverage also makes analysis of policies that affect consumption difficult; economy-wide models used for analysis often have to employ simple consumption forms with unit income elasticities. We estimate a translog demand system distinguished by demographic characteristics, giving price and income elasticities that should be useful for policy analysis. We estimate separate functions for urban and rural households using household expenditure data and detailed commodity prices (1995–2006). This allows future analysis of social welfare and inequality based on consumption to supplement existing studies based on income. To illustrate an application of the model, we project consumption composition based on projected prices, incomes and demographic changes – aging, education improvement and urbanization.     

台湾地区老龄人口休闲消费的影响因素与趋势展望

随着居民可支配收入不断提高与消费观念逐渐改变,休闲消费日益成为台湾地区老龄群体的消费支出重点。本文首先分析台湾地区老龄休闲消费现状,其次提出影响老龄休闲消费的主要因素,在此基础上,对台湾地区老龄休闲消费的未来发展趋势进行展望。     

Migration,population aging,and income inequality in China

In this study, we examine the effects of four demographic factors, namely, birth, death, natural aging, and net migration, on population aging and income inequality in China. We use the official Chinese data and the China Household Income Project Survey data for the 2007–2013 period and apply a decomposition model based on the Shapley method. Unlike previous studies, we include migration in our decomposition model and find that natural aging is the primary factor contributing to population aging in both urban and rural areas. Further, migration may accelerate population aging in rural areas. Moreover, migration contributes to reducing income inequality in urban areas, while widening income inequality in rural areas. The effect of migration is larger than those of birth, death, and natural aging on income inequality. The robustness checks confirm these conclusions.     

收入分配与中国居民消费——理论和基于中国的实证研究

本文研究了城乡收入差距扩大对中国居民消费需求的影响.基于生命周期框架的理论研究表明,收入水平越高,居民平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向越低;收入差距越大,居民消费需求越低.文章使用1978—2008年我国28个省、市、自治区的面板数据对理论模型进行了实证检验.结果显示,收入水平提高10000元,居民平均消费倾向下降25.6%,边际消费倾向下降7%;城乡收入差距扩大1单位,居民消费率下降6.5个百分点.数值模拟结果表明,城乡收入差距扩大导致居民消费率在2000—2008年间下降了3.42个百分点,解释了这一期间居民消费率下降的30.8%     

Describing and decomposing post-apartheid income inequality in South Africa

This paper describes the changes in inequality in South Africa over the post-apartheid period, using income data from 1993 and 2008. Having shown that the data are comparable over time, it then profiles aggregate changes in income inequality, showing that inequality has increased over the post-apartheid period because an increased share of income has gone to the top decile. Social grants have become much more important as sources of income in the lower deciles. However, income source decomposition shows that the labour market has been and remains the main driver of aggregate inequality. Inequality within each racial group has increased and both standard and new methodologies show that the contribution of between-race inequality has decreased. Both aggregate and within-group inequality are responding to rising unemployment and rising earnings inequality. Those who have neither access to social grants nor the education levels necessary to integrate successfully into a harsh labour market are especially vulnerable.     

Revisiting the Impact of Consumption Growth and Inequality on Poverty in Indonesia during Decentralisation

This article analyses the consumption growth elasticity and inequality elasticity of poverty in Indonesia, with a particular focus on the decentralisation period. Using provincial panel data, we show that the effectiveness of growth in alleviating poverty across provinces was greater during decentralisation—that is, between 2002 and 2010—than at any other point since 1984. The growth elasticity of poverty since 2002 is estimated to have been –2.46, which means that a 10% increase in average consumption per capita would have reduced the poverty rate by almost 25%. However, we also find that rising income inequality negated a quarter to a third of the 5.7-percentage-point reduction in the headcount poverty rate. This increasing inequality has contributed to a lower level of pro-poor growth than that maintained in Indonesia before decentralisation.     

Decomposing inequality under alternative concepts of resources: Greece 1988

The structure of inequality in Greece is analyzed using the information of a survey which contains both consumption and income data. Due to life-cycle factors and measurement errors, the correlation between the two variables is not very high and, hence, an approximation of the “permanent income” of the population members is attempted. Although the level of inequality of the new distribution is substantially lower than the levels of inequality of either the distribution of consumption expenditure or the distribution of disposable income, the structure of inequality in Greece is only slightly affected by the choice of distribution.     

Income inequality and educational expenditures on children: Evidence from the China Family Panel Studies

Using the data from the China Family Panel Studies from 2010 to 2018, we find that rising income inequality causes parents to spend more on children’s education, both in school and out of school. The impact of income inequality on out-of-school expenditures is significant at intensive and extensive margins, especially for study-related tutoring participation. Furthermore, we find some empirical evidence suggesting that in response to rising inequality, mothers spend more time on children’s education and there exists a substitution effect between time and money. Further analysis suggests two potential reasons for the rising education spending: (1) a higher income inequality resulting from rising skill premium strengthens parents’ long-lasting cultural attitude towards education to higher levels, inducing them to spend more on educational investment, and (2) a higher income inequality increases the value of higher education, leading to a stronger demand for better educational opportunities, and then, more intense education competition, forcing parents to invest more in education.     

Effects of Patent Policy on Income and Consumption Inequality in a R&D Growth Model

To analyze the effects of patent policy on growth and inequality, this article develops a quality‐ladder model with wealth heterogeneity and elastic labor supply. The model predicts that strengthening patent protection increases (a) economic growth by stimulating spending on research and development and (b) income inequality by raising the return on assets. Elastic labor supply creates an additional effect on income inequality. As for consumption inequality, the effect is ambiguous and depends on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Calibrating the model to the U.S. data shows that strengthening patent protection increases income inequality by more than consumption inequality, and this pattern is consistent with the data.     

The dynamic effect of rural-to-urban migration on inequality in source villages: System GMM estimates from rural China

Using a newly constructed panel dataset that covers the 14-year period from 1997 to 2011 for more than 100 villages in China, this study analyzes the dynamic effect of rural-to-urban migration on inequality in source villages. Given that income inequality is time persisting, we use a system GMM framework. We found that the dynamic relationship between migration and income inequality is inversely U-shaped. Specifically, contemporary migration increases income inequality, whereas lagged migration has a strong income inequality-reducing effect on the sending villages. A 50 percent increase in the lagged migration rate translates into a one-ninth to one-tenth standard deviation reduction in income inequality.     

Convergence in food consumption in Rural China: Evidence from household survey data

The aims of this paper are to propose an econometric model for studying consumption convergence, to apply the model to a set of panel data from China, and to discuss various implications of research results. Major findings of the paper include (a) conditional convergence is confirmed for total grain, fine grain, edible oil, poultry, aquatic product, and sugar; (b) animal fat and red meat exhibit consumption divergence; (c) rising income inequality and underdevelopment of market are identified to be obstacles to consumption convergence; and (d) for commodities that converge, the speed of convergence is slow.     

减税降费有助于缩小中国家庭经济不平等吗——来自2011年个税改革的证据

共同富裕要求我们从多维视角审视物质层面的不平等，在当前减税降费的大背景下，个人所得税是调控收入分配的关键手段。文章从收入、消费和财产所构成的多维经济不平等视角出发，对2011年个人所得税改革调节家庭经济不平等的效应进行了探讨。研究发现：个人所得税改革的公平效应是显著的，使经济不平等程度下降了13.64%，其中对城市地区的调节效应更强，对低福利阶层和高福利阶层的影响相对显著。在作用机制方面，个人所得税改革主要影响收入不平等，并进一步作用于消费不平等和财产不平等，最终影响经济不平等。为充分发挥个人所得税的调节效应，应逐步提高个人所得税比重，补充和细化专项附加扣除项目与标准，逐步以家庭为基础征收个税。     

收入分布、厂商定价与耐用品的消费扩张

本文考察了收入差距对耐用消费品消费的影响。我们从厂商的定价理论出发。说明了收入差距对耐用消费品消费呈现出倒U型的影响：随着收入差距扩大，耐用消费品的消费量增加，但是，收入差距继续扩大则会减少耐用消费品的消费。这说明，适当的收入差距有利于社会消费水平提高和经济的发展，过大和过小的收入差距都无助于经济的起飞。我们最后运用城镇居民和农村居民彩电、洗衣机和冰箱的拥有量对该理论进行了实证检验，实证检验结果基本上支持了我们的理论分析。     

The growth,poverty and inequality nexus in South Africa: Cointegration and causality analysis

This study empirically established the long-run relationship and causality effects that exist between growth, poverty and inequality. The analysis was carried out on a panel of nine South African provinces from 1995 to 2012. To capture poverty and inequality in a broader context, two measures of poverty (income and non-income) and three measures of inequality (income, education and land) were adopted for the study. The results confirm that there is a long-run relationship between growth, poverty and inequality. Notable results from the causality tests suggest that growth does not promote equal distribution of income in society but as income distribution begins to equalise, economic growth rises. This is regarded as growth–inequality disconnect. The unidirectional causality, which runs from income poverty to income inequality, suggests that a rising level of income poverty will lead to falling income inequality in the society; likewise, income inequality increases as non-income poverty declines.     

中国财政政策降低不平等的效应分析:嵌入失业风险的视角

本文通过构建一个包含个体失业风险的Hank模型来分析财政政策降低不平等的影响路径与政策效果。研究发现:(1)由于储蓄规则和流动性约束作用,不平等的加剧会增加总储蓄率,不利于向以消费为主的经济结构转型;(2)降低收入所得税对减轻不平等的效果取决于其累进程度,降低比例税可降低不平等,增加一般性转移支付对改善不平等效果不显著,但增加失业和贫困补贴可显著降低不平等,并提高具有高边际消费倾向的贫困家庭的消费,可实现公平与效率的兼顾;(3)提高技能有助于抵御失业风险带来的低收入风险。本文模型不仅与已有实证结果拟合程度较好,同时也为新时代全面脱贫、降低不平等和构建新发展格局提供新思路。     

中国农村收入不平等—基于微观调查数据的回归分解

论文利用2003-2008年CGSS的微观个体调查数据,运用回归分解方法对中国农村收入不平等进行分解。首先对收入不平等进行测算,研究发现农村收入极端不平等,并且呈上升趋势。回归分解结果表明,年龄、教育、性别、东部地区虚拟变量、政治地位、婚姻、健康和幸福感是对农村收入不平等的决定要素。其中教育、年龄、性别、东部地区虚拟变量和健康对农村收入不平等的贡献显著。其余变量对农村收入不平等的贡献相对较小,但其对农村收入不平等的影响也不能被忽视。研究结论对政府制定科学合理的收入分配政策和有效调控收入差距具有借鉴作用。     

Inequality,poverty and prospects for redistribution

This paper demonstrates that poverty and inequality trends can diverge. It then discusses inequality trends and shows that, despite measurement issues, there is consensus that inequality is very high and has been rising over much of the post-transition period. Due to rising inequality within all groups, and particularly the black population, and lower inequality between race groups, within-group inequality has become the dominant form of inequality. That does not, however, detract from the fact that inequality between groups is still very large. High income inequality largely stems from inequality in access to wage income, due more to wage inequality than to unemployment. A Gini coefficient for wage income amongst the employed of above 0.60 effectively sets a floor to overall income inequality. The high wage premium to educated workers derives from a combination of a skills shortage at the top end of the educational spectrum, driving up their wages, and a surfeit of poorly-educated workers competing for scarce unskilled jobs dampening unskilled wages; if the unemployed were to find jobs, it would be in this bottom part of the wage distribution, and consequently this would not much reduce wage inequality. A continuation of the historical pattern whereby only a small segment of the population obtained good schooling would leave the structures underlying the large wage premium unaltered. The time frame for substantial inequality reduction is thus necessarily a long one, while poverty reduction efforts should not wait for this to occur.     

Nonlinear income variance profiles and consumption inequality over the life cycle

In contrast to many other countries, consumption inequalities in Japan are not constant over household age but increase from around middle age—a fact first highlighted by Ohtake and Saito [Ohtake, F., Saito, M., 1998. Population aging and consumption inequality in Japan. Rev. Income Wealth 44, 361–381]. Given this information, we examine whether this phenomenon is consistent with the standard precautionary saving model developed by Carroll [Carroll, C.D., 1997. Buffer-stock savings and the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis. Quart. J. Econ. 62, 1–56]. Specifically, we investigate: (1) the degree of age dependence of idiosyncratic income risks; and (2) the importance of age dependence for the evolution of inequalities in consumption predicted by the household model of Carroll (1997). We find a strong age dependence of income risks, which creates a nonlinear age–variance profile of income, and the standard precautionary saving model is consistent with the observed consumption inequalities as long as we take the nonlinearity in age–variance profiles of income into account.     

The distribution of ncome in the UK and OECD countries in the twentieth century

Distributional changes are an important part of the economichistory of the OECD countries over the twentieth century. Inthe UK, income inequality in the 1970s was substantially lowerthan 40 years earlier, and is now much higher than in 1979.The pattern of change in the USA has similarities to that inthe UK, but other countries have exhibited significant differences.In order to explain diversity of experience over time, and differencesin income inequality across countries today, we need to recognizethat the distribution of income is subject to a variety of forces,affecting earnings, wealth, and income. These forces includethe policy choices made by governments affecting market incomesand fiscal redistribution. What we need to explain is why insome periods a number of these forces combine to produce episodesof rising, or falling, inequality. Any single theory, such asthat based on a global shift of demand away from unskilled workers,cannot provide a fully adequate explanation.