替代出口还是促进出口——我国对外直接投资对出口的影响研究

自2002年以来,我国对外直接投资发展迅猛,迅速增长的对外直接投资会促进我国对东道国的出口还是会用海外生产来替代我国对该国的出口呢?本文结合我国对外直接投资与出口贸易的现实情况,通过构建一个影响出口的引力模型,并利用我国2004-2010年35个国家的面板数据进行了混合回归模型分析。研究结果表明,我国对外直接投资对出口贸易存在明显的促进作用,且无论是发达国家还是发展中国家,这种促进效应都存在。因此,对于我国目前而言,无论是对发达国家的逆向上行投资,还是对发展中国家的顺向下行投资,都是具有贸易创造效应的海外投资。     

The EEC tariff preferences for LDCs

The Council of Ministers of the European CommunIties decided on March 30, 1971, to put into effect on July 1, 1971, a system of general tariff preferences favouring the exports of manufactures and semimanufactures from developing countries. By taking this decision the European Communities have reaffirmed their leading role among the western industrialised countries.     

Estimating the impact of trade specialization and trade policy on poverty in developing countries

This paper investigates the impact of trade specialization on poverty. The empirical findings show that in developing countries manufacturing exports contribute to poverty reduction. But agricultural exports have a more significant effect on poverty in low-income countries. The analysis also confirms that trade specialization reduces poverty but under specific trade specialization patterns and policy conditions.     

PROMOTING EFFORTS FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE IMPACT OF IMPORT PROMOTION OFFICES

Increasing exports from developing countries is widely regarded as an important part of a development and growth strategy. A major problem confronting exporters from developing countries is the many market barriers they typically face when attempting to enter markets in developed countries. Different institutions have been established to alleviate this problem, including export promotion offices (EPOs) in various developing countries and import promotion offices (IPOs) in several developed countries. The present study explores the impact of IPOs on exports from developing to developed countries by examin ing the actual pattern of imports into OECD countries over the period 1988 to 1993. Four specific product groups are selected and a model pertaining to explain the pattern of imports is presented. The results show that, even after controlling for a number of economic and policy variables, the share of imports originating in developing coun tries is indeed positively influenced by the presence of an IPO in the importing country. Thus, the results suggest that the establishment of an IPO may have a positive impact on the share of imports originat ing in developing countries.     

The Impacts of Alignment with Global Product Standards on Exports of Firms in Developing Countries

Complying with global standards and technical norms can be costly, making them potential impediments to trade, but it can also expand export opportunities. Two policies available to governments are alignment of domestic technical regulations with international standards and entry into mutual recognition agreements (MRAs). We study the effects of such decisions on the volume of exports to developed markets by firms in developing countries, using data from a World Bank firm‐level survey of awareness of global product norms. Both standards alignment and MRAs are associated with more exports to developed countries, but only MRAs significantly promote exports. This finding is consistent with theoretical predictions that MRAs should reduce the fixed costs of exporting more than standards alignment, permitting more firms to enter export markets in higher volumes. Governments in developing countries hoping to encourage exports may wish to favour the negotiation of mutual recognition of testing and certification procedures with major trading partners as a more affirmative avenue to expanding international sales.     

The Trade Effects of the EU–Turkey Customs Union

In the present study we argue that the salient features of both the EU‐15 countries and Turkey are conducive to making the effects of the 1995 EU–Turkey customs union asymmetric among the incumbent EU countries. In order to support our argument we rely on a model in which trade involves the exchange of vertically differentiated products. This model generates the prediction that the more contiguous an incumbent country is to the joining country in terms of technological sophistication, the larger will be the crowding out of this country's exports to the other incumbent countries as a result of the CU expansion. Using a gravity model we estimate the effects of the customs union between Turkey and the EU‐15 by differentiating between exports from (a) lower‐technology EU‐15 countries (we term this group of countries ‘South’) to higher‐technology EU‐15 countries (the ‘North’), (b) North to South, (c) South to Turkey, (d) North to Turkey, and (e) Turkey to EU‐15. Our econometric results indicate that, in contrast to North's exports to the other EU‐15 countries (which have remained intact), the Southern countries’ exports to the other EU‐15 countries have declined as a result of the CU. Moreover, the extra penetration of the Turkish market by the EU‐15 countries has not been more favourable to the Southern group.     

Shifting comparative advantage,the nics,and the developing countries

It has been suggested that there have been shifts in comparative advantage for labor-intensive manufactures from the Newly Industrializing Countires (NICs) to other developing countries, permitting these latter states to export these products to the world market. An analysis of changes in exports for selected three-digit product categories for manufactures for sixteen countries from 1968 to 1976 and from 1976 to 1982, however, indicated that such shifts have not occurred. Many of the other developing countries that have expanded such exports have done so in the same product categories as the NICs, not different ones. In other cases, export gains of some developing countries were matched by losses by other developing states.     

US trade preferences and export performance of developing countries: Evidence from the generalized system of preferences

Preferential market access such as the generalized system of preferences (GSP) is clearly recognized as a way of enabling developing countries export their way out of poverty. It has been a vital feature of industrialized countries' commercial policy for nearly 30 years. This study empirically explores the linkages between US trade preferences under the GSP and beneficiary country exports. Using a large US import database covering over 120 developing countries, the study examines the extent to which GSP influences export performance. The results largely indicate that the GSP has a significant and positive effect on beneficiary exports to US for all country and product groups. A proper understanding of this relationship will help donors and recipients devise appropriate policies to help encourage the growth and diversification of exports that is so vital for developing countries.     

中日韩三国农产品贸易竞争关系的研究

建立中日韩自由贸易区是区域经济一体化发展的必然要求,而三国间的农产品贸易现状与发展趋势,以及农产品贸易的特殊性对自由贸易区的建立具有十分重要的影响。本文通过产品相似性指数和市场相似性指数对中日韩三国农产品的贸易竞争关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,中日韩三国间的农产品相似性指数高于市场相似性指数,农产品贸易关系以竞争性为主,并依据本文研究得出的主要结论,提出了扩大我国农产品出口的相关建议。     

Trade Policy and Export Diversification: What Should Colombia Expect from the FTA with the United States?

Sectoral concentration of exports has been a longstanding matter of concern for policymakers in developing countries. According to economic theory and recent empirical evidence, improved market access through trade agreements is likely to favor export diversification. In this article, it is assessed whether this has been the case for Colombian exports to the United States and whether an FTA with the United States would help Colombia diversify their exports. We find that lower tariffs have indeed favored exports of new products from Colombia. Predictions suggest that the FTA is likely to induce further diversification, but only up to a certain point.     

Measuring the Competitive Threat from China for other Southern Exporters

In recent years there has been a growing literature which analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. This paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the Static and the Dynamic Index of Competitive Threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time.     

Financial vulnerability and export dynamics

This paper examines the implication of financial shocks on firms’ export dynamics in developing economies. To address this question, we use the Exporter Dynamics Dataset, which contains new data on the microstructure of exports for 34 developing countries between 1997 and 2011, and investigate how exporter behaviour is affected by financial crises. We find that financial crises in both the origin and destination countries have a large negative effect on firm, product and destination dynamics, particularly in industries dependent on external finance. Financial crises make the costs of exporting more difficult to meet and in turn reduce firms’ ability to start exporting, introduce new products and sell to new destinations. We also find that the impact of financial crises is less pronounced in exporting countries with relatively more open capital accounts, suggesting that portfolio inflows may be a good substitute for underdeveloped domestic financial markets.     

双向知识产权保护对中国出口三元边际的影响

理论分析了双向知识产权保护对出口国出口三元边际的影响,并选取2005—2015年中国出口到世界65个国家的HS-6位贸易数据,构建引力模型进行了实证验证。主要结论是,国内加强知识产权保护可以提升中国的出口种类和数量,贸易伙伴国加强知识产权保护可以提升中国的出口种类;没有证据表明,国内或国外知识产权保护水平的提升会影响中国的出口价格;当国内知识产权保护更强时,双向知识产权保护对中国出口种类的促进作用都有所增强,反之则二者作用都不显著;分国家类型的研究表明,双向知识产权保护的同时加强更有益于中国向发展中国家出口产品种类的扩张,但对发达国家则不显著。     

When an Importer's Protection of IPR Interacts with an Exporter's Level of Technology: Comparing the Impacts on the Exports of the North and South

Using bilateral trade data of countries from 2000 to 2007, this paper contributes to the empirical literature on the role of intellectual property rights (IPRs) in global trade. The existing literature has focused on how IPRs in the destination country affect exports from a source country. In this paper, we add an additional dimension: the level of technology of the exporting country (LT). This is quite important for distinguishing the impact of IPRs on the exports of developed and developing countries, since the technology levels vary across countries at different stages of development and intellectual property rights better protect exports that are technologically advanced than exports that are imitative and potentially infringing. By factoring in the level of technology (LT), our empirical analysis makes the case that IPRs can act as a barrier to the exports from the South, especially the rapidly catching‐up economies, and thus be a source for the middle‐income trap phenomenon.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies

This paper examines the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to 13 industrialised countries. We recognise the specificity of the exports between the emerging East Asian and industrialised countries and employ a generalised gravity model. In the empirical analysis we use a panel comprising 25 years of quarterly data and perform unit‐root and cointegration tests to verify the long‐run relationship among the variables. The results provide strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging East Asian countries. In addition, the results suggest that the pattern of bilateral exports is influenced by third‐country variables. An increase in the price competitiveness of other emerging East Asian countries has a negative impact on a country’s exports to a destination market, but the magnitude of the impact is relatively small. These results are robust across different estimation techniques and do not depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty. The results of the GMM‐IV estimation also confirm the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and suggest that this negative relationship is not driven by simultaneous causality bias.     

Movements of People for Movements of Goods?

Whilst it is well established to think of international tourism as a type of exports, namely ‘home’ exports, the potential of tourism flows as an engine for fostering trade among countries is a poorly studied topic. In this paper, we show that this relationship can be studied at a very detailed level by exploiting the disaggregation of existing information on international trade and inbound tourism. We consider a sample of 25 countries belonging to the European Union, a region that has been interested by common shocks such as the establishment of the euro as the new currency for many countries and the liberalisation in the air transport market. We carry out a panel data analysis by means of which we assess whether international tourist arrivals by a given country activate additional exports towards the same country. We find not only that tourism can promote exports, but also that this effect displays important differences depending on whether or not consumption goods are considered. This finding is consistent with the idea that the experience of tourists in a given destination reduces the fixed costs of trade, thus facilitating access to the advantages of international trade for more peripheral economies.     

Fending off waste from the west: The impact of China's Operation Green Fence on the international waste trade

China launched the first Operation Green Fence (OGF) on 1 February 2013 to fend off inflows of illegal waste. The main objective of OGF was to enforce waste trade policies already adopted by China and thereby restrict illegal waste imports. We use a gravity model of international trade with annual bilateral waste trade data at the 6-digit HS code level to assess the impact of OGF on the international waste trade. First, we study the direct impact of OGF and find that the intervention resulted in a 26% drop in low-quality waste exports to China from developed countries. Second, we assess the impact of OGF on exports from developed countries to developing countries, excluding China. We do not find a statistically significant effect of OGF on low-quality waste exports from developed countries to developing countries (excluding China). We also test the waste haven hypothesis and do not find evidence that waste exports were disproportionately diverted to countries with lax environmental regulation.     

The role of endowments,technology and size in international trade: new evidence from product-level data

Using product-level trade data, we empirically investigate the export patterns of more than 150 countries in their exports to the USA, Brazil, India, and Japan. We document strong evidence that exporters specialize according to their relative factor endowments, technology, and economic size. More developed, capital abundant countries are found to export products of higher unit values and a wider range of products to developed, emerging and developing markets. More developed, economically larger, and technologically advanced countries are also the major exporters of new products, spanning a wide range of product categories with high unit values. Our findings provide important insights into the macro phenomenon that a large proportion of the global trade takes place among developed economies, and that the latter are also major exporters to developing markets.     

Trick or Treat? Development Opportunities and Challenges in the WTO Negotiations on Industrial Tariffs

Negotiations on industrial tariffs in the current WTO work programme have turned out to be surprisingly difficult. On the one hand, developing countries, particularly in Africa, are concerned about the potential negative effect on their industrial development of developed country efforts to push them into deep cuts in applied tariffs: after the disillusion of the Uruguay Round, promises of welfare gains seem unconvincing. On the other hand, a number of the more complex formula proposals for tariff‐cutting make it difficult for participants to evaluate what they have to do compared with what they hope to receive. The developing countries may achieve greater exports and welfare gains from the more ambitious proposals, but computations show that these also imply greater imports, lower tariff revenues, some labour market adjustments and reduced output in some politically sensitive sectors. Some way of assisting the developing countries in coping with these adjustments is required to take advantage of the opportunities presented by the negotiations.     

Export diversification across countries and products: Do Eastern European (EE) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries diversify enough?

Despite the importance of geographical and product diversification of exports, this question has not got enough attention in the literature. We look at country and product diversification of exports from Eastern Europe (EE) and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), two groups of countries that both substantially increased trade openness since the beginning of transition, but took different paths in terms of product and geographical composition of exports, and compare with the export diversification predicted by the gravity equation estimated on a large sample of countries in 2001–2007. The results demonstrate substantial deviations of the actual diversification levels from the levels predicted by the gravity model for the CIS countries, while the EE countries' levels of diversification are much closer to the levels predicted by the model and consistent with the data. All CIS countries lag behind the region leaders – Czech Republic and Poland – in terms of the degree of export diversification. In particular, the CIS countries extensively engaged in the export of raw materials have the most concentrated exports in terms of their product composition. In terms of geographical diversification, Belarus has the least diversified exports among all transition countries.