青岛滨海广场研究与分析

滨海广场是城市最具特色的"会客厅",从某种意义上说,体现了滨海城市的风貌和灵魂,展示了滨海城市生活模式和文化内涵。本文对青岛滨海广场进行实地考察研究,对广场使用现状进行评价,对滨海广场建设取得的成果给予肯定,同时剖析广场存在的问题,提出改造建议。     

A general method for addressing forecasting uncertainty in inventory models

In practice, inventory decisions depend heavily on demand forecasts, but the literature typically assumes that demand distributions are known. This means that estimates are substituted directly for the unknown parameters, leading to insufficient safety stocks, stock-outs, low service, and high costs. We propose a framework for addressing this estimation uncertainty that is applicable to any inventory model, demand distribution, and parameter estimator. The estimation errors are modeled and a predictive lead time demand distribution obtained, which is then substituted into the inventory model. We illustrate this framework for several different demand models. When the estimates are based on ten observations, the relative savings are typically between 10% and 30% for mean-stationary demand. However, the savings are larger when the estimates are based on fewer observations, when backorders are costlier, or when the lead time is longer. In the presence of a trend, the savings are between 50% and 80% for several scenarios.     

Applications of parameters of shape to statistical distributions

Several new parameters characterizing the shape of statistical distributions are discussed. These parameters have earlier been considered for characterization of the shape of territories. By means of these parameters we describe general spread and spread along the axes, as well as asymmetry, of univariate theoretical and empirical distributions. General formulas for the parameters are given, and the particular formulas for the most of the common theoretical distributions are also listed. Some numerical values are tabulated, to illustrate their usefulness. Affine transformations are considered, and many applications and extensions are hinted upon.     

Randomized Response, Statistical Disclosure Control and Misclassificatio: a Review

This paper discusses analysis of categorical data which have been misclassified and where misclassification probabilities are known. Fields where this kind of misclassification occurs are randomized response, statistical disclosure control, and classification with known sensitivity and specificity. Estimates of true frequencies are given, and adjustments to the odds ratio are discussed. Moment estimates and maximum Likelihood estimates are compared and it is proved that they are the same in the interior of the parameter space. Since moment estimators are regularly outside the parameter space, special attention is paid to the possibility of boundary solutions. An example is given.     

顾客关系承诺研究:模型与实证

顾客关系承诺有三个维度,持续性承诺、规范性承诺以及情感性承诺。顾客关系承诺意愿越强,则其转换意图就越弱,忠诚度越高。持续性承诺的影响因素包括转换成本和服务质量;情感性承诺的影响因素包括满意和信任;规范性承诺的影响因素为主观规范。对山东省服务业的调查分析显示,情感承诺、规范化承诺和持续性承诺都与转换意向负相关,但是情感承诺由规范化承诺中介,即情感承诺越强,对服务供应商的规范化承诺越强。主观规范与转换意图之间的关系由规范性承诺中介,信任与转换意图之间的关系由情感承诺中介,转换成本与转换意图之间的关系由持续性承诺中介,服务质量和转换意图之间关系没有由持续性承诺中介。     

Strategies for successful organizational downsizing

This article reports the results of a study of 30 organizations that engaged in downsizing over a four-year period. Three questions were investigated: (1) What general strategies are used by organizations to downsize? (2) What are the effects of downsizing on organizational performance? (3) What are downsizing's “best practices?” or, What are the differences between organizations that effectively downsize and those that do not? Three main strategies for downsizing are explained, the managerial actions to overcome the negative effects of downsizing are enumerated, and the best practices of successful downsizing firms are presented.     

当代城市化机理模型研究的比较与融合

纵观我国城市化的研究,基础性的理论研究相对较少,建立的模型多以静态为主,缺乏动态演化特征,特别是定量的机理性数学模型和模拟并不多见,研究的方法也创新不足.首先从发展经济学和空间经济学两种经济学视角对城市化主要研究模型进行评述,其次从基于agent建模(ABM)的复杂科学途径对当代我国城市化研究的主要内容展开剖析,认为我国城市化研究需要方法的创新与融合,指出结合经济学研究成果和ABM动态化的优势,进行以新古典城市化理论为基础的"广义"和以新经济地理学为基础的"狭义"融合尝试,是城市化机制研究瓶颈的突破.按照"经济学演绎模型与推导一基于agent的计算实验一实证分析与计量检验一政策分析与评估"的研究思路是一个值得探索的方向.     

Human resource management practices and corporate entrepreneurship: an empirical assessment from the USA

In this article, the relationship between human resource management and corporate entrepreneurship is assessed. The underlying nature of entrepreneurship is examined and the core dimensions of an entrepreneurial orientation are identified. Based on current classification schemes of HRM-related practices, an assessment is made of practices that facilitate rather than constrain entrepreneurial behaviour, and research hypotheses are generated. Results are reported of a cross-sectional survey of firms in which these hypotheses are tested. Conclusions and implications are drawn for managers, and suggestions are made for further research.     

Long-term industry performance following IPOs

While firms are more likely to go public when the corresponding industry prospects are favorable, they may also serve as formidable threats to pull market share from the industry. In addition, if IPOs are timed when industry valuations are unusually high, there may be an aftermarket correction in the industry. We find that the corresponding industry rival portfolios experience unfavorable price performance on average over the 36-month period following an IPO. The dispersion in long-term industry effects following the IPOs can be partially explained by competitive effects and the timing of the IPO. The adverse industry effects are more pronounced when the IPOs are small, and when the IPO is the first in the industry within the last 2 years. Furthermore, the adverse industry effects are more pronounced when the IPOs are in regulated industries, and when prevailing industry multiples are relatively high at the time of the IPO. Overall, these characteristics document the influence of competitive effects and timing signals on industry effects associated with IPOs.     

Individual and Institutional Investors’ Response to Earnings Reported by Conservative and Non‐Conservative Firms: Evidence from Chinese Financial Markets

In this study, we document that there are significant differences in individual and institutional investors’ perception and interpretation of information based on accounting conservatism, as reflected by their trading behavior in the Chinese financial market. Our findings show that institutional investors, who are more sophisticated and have better skills, engage in higher purchases of equities of firms that use high accounting conservatism compared to the firms that use low/no accounting conservatism. Institutional investors’ equity purchases are even higher if these firms are associated with higher growth opportunities. On the other hand, individual investors are attracted more by the attention‐grabbing events and are motivated to purchase equities of firms that either do not use accounting conservatism or use low accounting conservatism, and their purchases are even higher when the firms report positive earnings surprises. Additionally, we find that abnormal returns are higher for the firms using high accounting conservatism and have experienced higher purchases by institutional investors.     

On existence and uniqueness of maximum likelihood estimates in quantal and ordinal response models

Summary For quantal and ordinal response models, conditions on existence and uniqueness of maximum likelhood estimates are presented. Results are derived from general results on direction sets and spaces associated with a proper concave function. If each summand of the log likelihood is in any direction either strictly concave or affine, necessary and sufficient conditions are obtained. If all cell counts are strictly positive, then it is shown that estimates always exist, and that they are unique if all parameters are identifiable. If estimates exist without being unique, results on uniquely estimable linear functions are given, paralleling corresponding results in linear regression. An extension of the maximum likelihood principle is outlined yielding similar results even if the likelihood does not attain its supremum. The logit model, the linear probability model, cumulative and sequential models and binomial response models are considered in detail.     

国外住房保障制度比较研究

分析了美国、英国、德国、日本、韩国、新加坡等国家城市中低收入者住房保障体系的主要特色。重点分析了美国从供需两方面进行补贴的保障模式、英国的混合产权补贴方式、日本的住房保障三大支柱,同时,还比较了德国、韩国和新加坡三国住房保障体系的差异。概括出这些国家城市中低收入者住房保障体系的主要特征和存在的矛盾,即从补贴卖方到补贴买方的转变,根据发展阶段确定需要补贴的卖方以及以需求补贴为主导的特色补贴模式。最后,对国外城市中低收入者住房保障体系进行了评价,指出了公房建设与国民经济发展、政府与民间团体以及政府与城市中低收入者之间存在的三大矛盾。     

标准体系方法论中程序模块的理论和方法

本文对标准体系方法论中核心程序模块的理论和方法进行了深入的分析,研究建立了标准体系目标分析的纵横目标分析方法,建立了标准体系的三维目标空间,构建了结构化和概念化的标准对象系统,建立了目标关联的标准需求分析方法,定位了标准适用性分析的对象和判据项目,在标准体系结构设计方面引入了标准体系拓扑结构,丰富了标准体系结构设计的选择,给出了技术标准、管理标准、工作标准区分的要点,制定了标准体系表的编制方法,确定了标准体系研究报告和编制说明的编写方法等,明确了标准体系构建的成果形式。     

建设工程实施阶段的工程质量DEA评价

在建立工程质量评价指标体系的基础上,构建了工程质量评价DEA评价模型,给出了工程质量评价模型的步骤及评价标准,并以某单位工程在施工阶段的12个分部工程为例,进行了建设项目的质量实证评价,对有效的分部工程进行排序,对非有效的分部工程针对不足的地方提出了改进措施。通过评价,可以总结出在管理过程中的经验与教训,以便管理者进行剖析与总结,从而有效地对工程质量进行控制。     

金融工具会计

金融工具会计的主要问题集中在确认和计量方面。金融资产的初始计量应为:将支付的对价作为取得金融资产的初始入账金额;金融资产的后续计量应为:企业发起但不是为交易而持有的贷款和应收款项按成本计量,持有至到期的投资按摊余成本计量,可供出售金融资产和交易性金融资产按资产负债表日的公允价值计量。确定金融资产公允价值的优先顺序为:公开活跃市场上该项资产的市价、参考市场上类似交易资产的价格、采用期权定价法或资本资产定价法。     

Bayes estimates of distance‐to‐market: transactions costs,cooperatives and milk‐market development in the Ethiopian highlands

Rationalizing non‐participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk‐market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for positive marketable surplus—‘distances‐to market’—are computed from a model in which production and sales are correlated; sales are left‐censored at some unobserved threshold; production efficiencies are heterogeneous; and the data are in the form of a panel. Incorporating these features into the modeling exercise is important because they are fundamental to the data‐generating environment. There are four reasons. First, because production and sales decisions are enacted within the same household, both decisions are affected by the same exogenous shocks, and production and sales are therefore likely to be correlated. Second, because selling involves time and time is arguably the most important resource available to a subsistence household, the minimum sales amount is not zero but, rather, some unobserved threshold that lies beyond zero. Third, the potential existence of heterogeneous abilities in management, ones that lie latent from the econometrician's perspective, suggest that production efficiencies should be permitted to vary across households. Fourth, we observe a single set of households during multiple visits in a single production year. The results convey clearly that institutional and production innovations alone are insufficient to encourage participation. Market‐precipitating innovation requires complementary inputs, especially improvements in human capital and reductions in risk. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The nonlinear limited-information maximum- likelihood estimator and the modified nonlinear two-stage least-squares estimator

Several limited-information type estimators of the nonlinear simultaneous equation model are considered and their asymptotic covariance matrices are compared. Amemiya (1974) proposed the general class of nonlinear two-stage least-squares estimators. In this paper, its two specific members are considered and, in addition, the nonlinear limited-information maximum- likelihood estimator and the modified nonlinear two-stage least-squares estimator are proposed. Both are shown to be asymptotically more efficient than the nonlinear two-stage least-squares estimator, and the second has the advantage of being computationally simple.     

Measuring regional efficiency: A method tested on the fabricated metal products industry in Sweden, 1973–1975

This paper presents a method of measuring the efficiency of regions as production environments of manufacturing industries. The approach is a rather general view of the firm in a market economy. The functions which the firms must perform are discussed. From that, hypotheses are made regarding the elements of the environment which should constitute the regional production milieu and thus influence the efficiency of the firms. By way of factor analysis the original variables are reduced to seven regional factors, which are put into productivity functions where their parameters are estimated. From those parameters indexes of regional efficiency are calculated.     

基于结构元理论的复Fuzzy数

在文献[2—6]的基础上,给出了基于结构元理论的复Fuzzy数,定义了两个复模糊数的距离、大小关系、上下界及四则运算等,并探讨了复Fuzzy数项数列的收敛性,给出了数列收敛的充要条件及收敛的唯一性、有界性、保号性等结论。     

常用溃疡性结肠炎动物模型的探讨及比较

通过观察及检测数年来国内外多种溃疡性结肠炎动物模型的制备及其特点来明确适用于不同研究方法或研究目的UC动物模型。文章列举出几种常用的模型,包括乙酸模型、二硝基氯苯模型、三硝基苯磺酸模型及免疫加化学刺激模型,其中乙酸和二硝基氯苯模型适用于至炎机理及中药药理的研究,三硝基苯磺算和免疫加化学刺激模型适合免疫机理及慢性期给药的研究。乙酸和三硝基苯磺酸模型操作简便,易于重复,而另外两种模型过程较复杂,周期较长。