Understanding Post‐Euro Law‐of‐One‐Price Deviations

We put together a unique panel of thousands of good‐level prices before and after the euro to compare the determinants and understand the evolution of goods price dispersion across Europe over time. We find that tradeability and nontraded inputs play a significantly smaller role for cross‐country price dispersion after the adoption of the euro, and for Eurozone economies as compared to European Union ones. We then compare the distributions of law‐of‐one‐price (LOP) deviations over time to understand how the degree of integration across European economies changed after the euro. Our tests reveal that the distributions after the euro are typically significantly different from those before, consistent with a greater degree of integration. Utilizing our unique panel data set to trace the location of individual goods in the distribution of LOP deviations, we ask how the price advantage or disadvantage evident in these price distributions evolves over time, and whether goods characteristics play a role for the persistence of these LOP deviations. LOP deviations for these goods are highly correlated over 5‐ or 10‐ year horizons, and correlations remain significantly high over longer horizons. These correlations are greater for homogeneous as compared to differentiated goods and vary across countries. Finally, for most of these European economies and goods, price advantage is typically revealed to be more persistent than price disadvantage.     

“Too‐Small‐To‐Survive” versus “Too‐Big‐To‐Fail” banks: The two sides of the same coin

In the recent crisis, the U.S. authorities bailed out numerous banks through TARP, whilst let many others to fail as going concern entities. Even though both interventions fully protect depositors, a bail out represents an implied subsidy to shareholders, which is not yet the case with closures where creditors are not subsidised. We investigate this non‐uniform policy, demonstrating that size and not performance is the decision variable that endogenously determines one threshold below which banks are treated as TSTS by regulators and another one above which are considered to be TBTF. We, hence, provide a pair of economic rather than regulatory cut‐offs for TBTF and TSTS banks. The shareholders and the other uninsured creditors of a distressed bank are not bailed out if the bank is considered to be TSTS. We further document that the less complex a bank is, the less likely is to be bailed out and, hence, to have all of its creditors protected.     

A neural‐network‐based decision‐making model in the peer‐to‐peer lending market

This study proposes an investment recommendation model for peer‐to‐peer (P2P) lending. P2P lenders usually are inexpert, so helping them to make the best decision for their investments is vital. In this study, while we aim to compare the performance of different artificial neural network (ANN) models, we evaluate loans from two perspectives: risk and return. The net present value (NPV) is considered as the return variable. To the best of our knowledge, NPV has been used in few studies in the P2P lending context. Considering the advantages of using NPV, we aim to improve decision‐making models in this market by the use of NPV and the integration of supervised learning and optimization algorithms that can be considered as one of our contributions. In order to predict NPV, three ANN models are compared concerning mean square error, mean absolute error, and root‐mean‐square error to find the optimal ANN model. Furthermore, for the risk evaluation, the probability of default of loans is computed using logistic regression. Investors in the P2P lending market can share their assets between different loans, so the procedure of P2P investment is similar to portfolio optimization. In this context, we minimize the risk of a portfolio for a minimum acceptable level of return. To analyse the effectiveness of our proposed model, we compare our decision‐making algorithm with the output of a traditional model. The experimental results on a real‐world data set show that our model leads to a better investment concerning both risk and return.     

Equity‐based incentives and shareholder say‐on‐pay

We study the relationship between CEO pay‐performance sensitivity, pay‐risk sensitivity, and shareholder voting outcomes as part of the “say‐on‐pay” provision of the 2010 US Dodd‐Frank Act. Consistent with our hypothesis, we provide evidence that shareholders tend to approve of compensation packages that are more sensitive to changes in stock price (pay‐performance sensitivity). Our findings are consistent with theoretical predictions that outside owners approve of equity incentives as a means of aligning managers' interests with those of shareholders. We also document that future changes to equity‐based incentives are related to voting outcomes and that shareholders incorporate CFO incentives into their votes. Collectively, these results provide evidence of the importance of equity‐based incentives from the perspective of those most concerned with firm value and of the effectiveness of say‐on‐pay as a governance mechanism.     

On‐the‐Job Learning and News‐Driven Business Cycles

This paper proposes a new channel of on‐the‐job learning to explain the positive comovement between consumption and employment following good news about future productivity. The new recruits can generate an additional stream of output production in all future periods, and the firm's labor demand is thus characterized by the forward‐looking property. Therefore, the firm is motivated to hire more new recruits in advance in response to good news about future productivity. Once the increase in labor demand is greater than the decrease in labor supply caused by the income effect, the coincident rise in consumption and employment can be driven by the news shock. When such a channel is paired with investment adjustment costs and the endogenous capacity utilization rate, this paper provides a plausible explanation for simultaneous booms in current consumption, investment, output, and employment to match the empirical evidence under the news shock.     

The flight‐to‐quality effect: a copula‐based analysis

We derive and estimate a copula combining the features of the Frank and Gumbel copulas to analyse the relationship between equity and long‐term bond returns. Our analysis of quarterly returns from 1952 to 2003 finds that, in general, there is a positive relationship between equity returns and bond returns. In extreme situations, however, there is approximately a one‐in‐seven chance of a flight‐to‐quality effect where large negative equity returns are associated with large positive bond returns.     

Risk‐based explanation for the book‐to‐market effect

This paper proposes a risk‐based explanation for the book‐to‐market (B/M) effect. I decompose B/M into net operating asset‐to‐market (NOA/M) and net financing asset‐to‐market (NFA/M) components. Portfolio analysis shows that (i) positive B/M, NOA/M and NFA/M are positively related to future returns and (ii) negative B/M, NOA/M and NFA/M are negatively related to future returns. To the extent that positive B/M, NOA/M and NFA/M act as measures of asset risk and negative B/M, NOA/M and NFA/M act as inverse measures of borrowing risk, the nonlinear relations between B/M, NOA/M and NFA/M and future returns provide some evidence to support the risk‐based explanation for the book‐to‐market effect in stock returns.     

A new perspective on post‐earnings‐announcement‐drift: Using a relative drift measure

Prior research finds that there is a delayed reaction to both analyst‐based earnings surprises and random‐walk‐based earnings surprises. Focusing on the market reaction from the post‐announcement window, prior studies show that analyst‐based drift is larger than random walk‐based drift. This finding is counter‐intuitive if we believe large, sophisticated investors tend to trade on analysts’ forecast earnings news and thus react faster and more completely than smaller and less sophisticated investors react to random walk earnings news. In this study, we construct a relative measure of post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD) (i.e., drift as a proportion of total market reaction to earnings news) which we refer to as the ‘drift ratio’, and we provide evidence, consistent with our intuition, that analyst‐based drift ratio is smaller (not greater) than random‐walk‐based drift ratio. We find that this difference is more pronounced in more recent periods and for firms with more sophisticated investors. Our approach to measure the PEAD is more intuitive than that in traditional PEAD literature. Our results thus complement existing research findings by utilizing the drift ratio measure to generate new insights about the drift phenomenon.     

On the Publicity of Two‐Stage Spin‐Offs and Equity Carve‐Outs

We investigate the effect of pre‐offer publicity on ownership, pricing, and aftermarket performance for equity carve‐outs (ECOs) and two‐stage spin‐offs (COSOs). Contrary to ECOs, for COSOs the parent firm's shareholders end up with free shares in the subsidiary. As the value of large share blocks is likely to be negatively affected by the emergence of new blocks after the divestiture, we hypothesize that parent firms undertaking COSOs may conduct more pre‐offer publicity to attract more retail investors, keeping outside ownership diffuse and inflating aftermarket performance until the distribution of the free shares. We find empirical support for our hypotheses.     

Investment Horizon and Repo in the Over‐the‐Counter Market

This paper presents a three‐period model featuring a short‐term investor in the over‐the‐counter bond market. A short‐term investor stores cash because of a need to pay cash at some future date. If a short‐term investor buys bonds, then a deadline for retrieving cash lowers the resale price of bonds for the investor through bilateral bargaining in the bond market. Ex‐ante, this hold‐up problem explains the use of a repo by a short‐term investor, the existence of a haircut, and the vulnerability of a repo market to counterparty risk. This result holds without any uncertainty about bond returns or asymmetric information.     

Endogenous Financial Constraint and Investment‐Cash‐Flow Sensitivity

This paper studies a dynamic investment model with moral hazard. The moral hazard problem implies an endogenous financial constraint on investment that makes the firm's investment sensitive to cash flows. I show that the production technology and the severity of the moral hazard problem substantially affect the dependence of the investment‐cash‐flow sensitivity on the financial constraint. Specifically, if the production technology exhibits almost constant returns to scale in capital or the moral hazard problem is relatively severe, the dependence is negative. Otherwise, the pattern is reversed to some extent. Moreover, the calibrated benchmark model can quantitatively account for the negative dependence of investment and Tobin's Q on size and age observed in the data.     

Risk‐Adjusted Long‐Term Contrarian Profits: Evidence from Non‐S&P 500 High‐Volume Stocks

Can trading volume help unravel the long‐term overreaction puzzle? With portfolios of non‐S&P 500 NYSE stocks, we show that (1) both the high‐ and low‐volume (abnormal volume) contrarian portfolios earn a much higher market‐adjusted excess return than the normal‐volume contrarian portfolio, (2) however, when leverage‐induced risk is factored in, excess returns from contrarian portfolios with normal‐ and low‐volume stocks are insignificant, (3) only excess returns from high‐volume contrarian stocks are significant and cannot be explained by the time‐varying risk and return framework, and (4) such high‐volume, risk‐adjusted excess returns arise mainly from winner (glamour) stocks.     

RST–GCBR‐CLUSTERING‐BASED RGA–SVM MODEL FOR CORPORATE FAILURE PREDICTION

Corporate bankruptcy is perceived as a shocking event. Several researchers focused on the prediction of these phenomena using various methods aiming to avoid high generated costs. In this paper, a new hybrid approach is proposed to deal with corporate failure prediction. Based on financial ratios as input data and in order to predict if the business unit will fail or not, our approach integrates rough set theory, Gaussian case‐based reasoning‐clustering, real‐valued genetic algorithm with support vector machines. This combination is justified by a high accuracy rate, reaching 100% at 1 year before failure and 94.0925% at 3 years before failure. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mind the gap: CEO–employee pay ratios and shareholder say‐on‐pay votes

We examine the Securities and Exchange Commission's assertion in the pay ratio disclosure rule that the ratio of Chief Executive Officer to employee pay is useful to shareholders for say‐on‐pay (SOP) voting decisions. Using an estimated pay ratio for a broad panel of commercial banks from 2010 to 2017, we find that voting dissent on SOP proposals is significantly higher in the top pay ratio decile, particularly when institutional ownership is high. Results are robust to controlling for a number of other determinants of voting dissent, including proxy advisor recommendations and executive compensation. Additionally, inferences using the first year of disclosed pay ratios in 2017 for S&P 1500 firms are consistent. However, we do not find similar results in the other deciles of the pay ratio in either sample, calling into question whether a cost‐benefit analysis would support the disclosure requirement imposed by Dodd‐Frank and implemented by the SEC.     

Preparers’ control‐risk assessments under alternative audit‐review processes

This study investigates the impact of a decomposed audit‐review process on audit preparers’ control‐risk assessments, taking audit experience into consideration. Using an experiment, it manipulates the audit‐review type (decomposed review versus non‐decomposed review) and preparers’ audit experience level (more experienced versus less experienced). Analysis of data collected from two mid‐tier audit firms supported the author’s predictions. First, working‐paper preparers assessed control risk more accurately in a decomposed than in a non‐decomposed review. Second, less‐experienced auditors benefitted more from a decomposed review than more‐experienced auditors.     

Objective estimation versus subjective perceptions of earnings patterns and post‐earnings‐announcement drift

We investigate how the market's subjective estimates of autocorrelation in quarterly earnings vary with objective time‐series estimates. Our results suggest that investors increasingly underestimate the correlation as the autocorrelation level increases, and as a result, the post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD) increases with the level of autocorrelation. We further show that the ability of autocorrelation to explain variation in the PEAD is robust to alternative explanations based on risk and institutional factors. Additional analysis indicates that the market's inefficiency in assessing the existence and magnitude of autocorrelation (and the related impact on PEAD) is inversely related to the richness of the information environment.     

Regulatory Capital Charges for Too‐Connected‐to‐Fail Institutions: A Practical Proposal

The recent financial crisis has highlighted once more that interconnectedness in the financial system is a major source of systemic risk. I suggest a practical way to levy regulatory capital charges based on the degree of interconnectedness among financial institutions. Namely, the charges are based on the institution's incremental contribution to systemic risk based on a risk budgeting approach. The imposition of such capital charges could go a long way towards internalizing the negative externalities associated with too‐connected‐to‐fail institutions and providing managerial incentives to strengthen an institution's solvency position, and avoid too much homogeneity and excessive reliance on the same counterparties in the financial industry.