外汇占款激增,热钱反扑?

外汇占款激增这一趋势能否持续的问题,实际上就变成了国内资产市场会否迎来泡沫加剧。6837亿元,这是央行新近发布的1月份外汇占款数据,比去年全年的新增外汇占款多出四成,这一数字也创下了外汇占款增长史上的单月增幅新高。历史上,单月外汇占款增量超过6000亿元的只有2008年1月一次。外汇占款是衡量市场流动性的重要指标,更是过去十年形成广义货币     

2008年底我国基础货币快速上升的三大原因

一是外汇占款增加。资产项目中的外汇占款主要是以外汇储备资产为主。外汇占款和基础货币是同向变动的,外汇占款越多,基础货币增加会越快。二是央行票据下降。央票发行和基础货币是反向变化的,央票发行得越少,央行冻结的资金会减少,基础货币会增加。从去年11月起,我国央票存量已逐渐明显下降。三是政府存款开始下降。通常,中央政府存款的增加意味着基础货币的减少。在我国全力保增长的经济形势下,中央政府不断加大投资支出的力度,     

2013年10月外汇占款数据分析

日前,央行发布的数据显示,10月新增外汇占款延续上月升势,连续四个月增长规模扩大,当月新增外汇占款4416亿元,当月环比9月多增3152．4亿元,高出9月新增外汇占款规模近2．5倍,创下新增外汇占款规模年内次新高。外汇占款的暴涨再度引发了央行对短期套利热钱加速流入的担忧。     

浅析人民银行对冲外汇占款的成本

从中国央行资产负债表出发,粗略计算对冲外汇占款的直接成本和隐性成本,以此解释央行承担对冲成本的机制以及当前模式的不可持续。     

浅析人民银行对冲外汇占款的成本

从中国央行资产负债表出发,粗略计算对冲外汇占款的直接成本和隐性成本,以此解释央行承担对冲成本的机制以及当前模式的不可持续。     

央行票据发行规模的影响因素分析——基于VAR模型的视角

近年来,央行票据发行规模不断增大,对影响该趋势的因素分析显得尤为重要.运用向量自回归(VAR)模型、脉冲响应函数等经济计量学方法对影响我国央行票据发行规模的因素进行实证分析.结果表明:央行票据发行规模、新增外汇占款和到期央行票据额之间存在长期均衡关系;和新增外汇占款相比,到期央行票据额对央行票据发行规模的影响更为显著;同时也反映出央行票据对外汇占款的冲销效果有限.     

外汇占款对中国货币供给的影响

一、外汇占款在我国货币供给中的地位 外汇占款是央行投放基础货币的一个途径.这一点可以从简化的中央银行资产负债表看出.当商业银行将外汇出售给中央银行时,中央银行的资产增加,同时会将等值的本国货币记入商业银行在中央银行的账户,也就是增加了他们的存款准备金,商业银行就可以按比例扩张信用,增加货币供应量(见表一).     

外汇占款的未来走势及其对资本市场的影响分析

外汇占款作为我国货币供给的重要组成部分,其增减直接影响市场的流动性。因此,分析外汇占款的变动趋势,探讨外汇占款对我国经济增长形势以及资本市场的影响,对维护和促进国内宏观经济及资本市场的健康发展具有重要意义。一、我国巨额的外汇占款及其形成过程外汇占款是指银行收购外汇资产而相应投放的本国货币。银行购买外汇形成本币投放,所购买的外虻资产构成银行的外汇储备。在我国,外资进入中国后需兑换成人民币才能流通使用,外汇占款即人民银行资产负债表中资产项下的外汇,即以本币计价的外汇储备余额。外汇储备即人民银行所持有的外旺资产,其存量的变动必定与基础货币的投放或回笼相对应。     

外汇占款对我国货币供给的影响

我国近年来外汇占款随着外汇储备快速增加而持续增长,外汇占款成为中央银行的主要资产,通过基础货币直接对我国货币供应量产生影响。本文详细分析了外汇占款与基础货币之间的内在联系,接着阐述了外汇占款对我国货币供给总量、结构以及供给量内生性的影响。     

外汇占款对我国货币政策有效性的冲击及应对措施

外汇占款的大幅度增加,改变了我国货币供给的结构,限制了国内货币政策的方向性和有效性.为此应当进一步深化外汇管理体制改革,分流外汇储备,缓解外汇占款压力;进一步加快货币市场和外汇市场的基础建设,拓宽央行货币调控的空间;进一步完善外汇占款的冲销策略和手段,提高外汇冲销的效率.     

Time-varying risk attitude and the foreign exchange market behavior

This paper presents a heterogeneous agents model of the foreign exchange market in which agents’ risk attitudes vary over time due to psychological factors emphasized in prospect theory. We find that psychological component and risk-profit elasticity play significant roles in exchange rate expectations formation and investment behavior. Although all agents show more risk-averse after the crisis, the extent to which their risk attitude responds to the crisis varies due to heterogeneous forecasting rules as well as the changes of trading environment and central bank intervention. Moreover, time-varying risk attitudes can help explain the forward premium puzzle. These findings have implications for the exchange rate expectation formation theories and foreign exchange market stability policies.     

异质预期条件下中央银行沟通对人民币汇率波动的影响

在外汇市场交易者预期异质性的假设条件下,以2005年7月至2015年12月中国人民银行沟通频数和人民币汇率数据为样本,采用异质预期汇率模型考察中央银行沟通对人民币汇率波动的总体影响。研究发现：在异质预期条件下,中央银行沟通通过信息机制和协调机制影响外汇市场交易者的异质预期,从而对人民币汇率波动产生较为显著的影响,但由于我国外汇交易者预期向基本面预期转换的发生概率小于技术分析交易者预期,中央银行沟通对人民币汇率波动的平稳作用效力受到一定的局限。     

Do Markets Care about Central Bank Governor Changes? Evidence from Emerging Markets

Based on a new daily data set for 20 emerging markets over the period 1992–2006, we examine the reactions of foreign exchange markets, domestic stock markets, and sovereign bond spreads to central bank governor changes. We find that the replacement of a central bank governor negatively affects financial markets on the announcement day, which is in line with the hypothesis that newly appointed central bank governors suffer from a systematic credibility problem at the beginning of their tenure. We also find some evidence that changes in perceived central bank independence affect markets.     

Foreign reserve and money dynamics with asset portfolio adjustment: international evidence

In this paper we argue that more complete modeling of foreign exchange intervention and sterilization dynamics is necessary when there are adjustment costs to changing private portfolios and/or the central bank attempts to balance longer-run monetary control against short-term exchange rate objectives. We show that measured correlations between domestic credit and foreign asset changes, often interpreted as ‘sterilization coefficients’, may be misleading because they vary with the pattern of disturbances as well as private agent and central bank behavior. We assess the empirical significance of this issue by estimating vector error correction models of the domestic and foreign asset components of the monetary base for Japan and Germany. In both countries, we find that that the impact of foreign exchange intervention on domestic credit falls markedly after several months, implying that the degree of sterilization decreases over time. However, the monetary base remained largely insulated as foreign asset positions were subsequently ‘unwound.’     

我国货币发行机制探讨——基于央行和商业银行资产负债表的分析

我国外汇储备不断增加,使得外汇占款和基础货币持续增加。本文通过商业银行和中央银行的资产负债表分析了我国外汇储备增加对基础货币发行的影响机制。并比较分析了央行通过买卖央行票据和国债对基础货币发行的影响。目前,央行减少外汇储备主要通过建立投资公司,笔者分析了财政部发行特别国债购买外汇,并将外汇注资国家外汇投资公司对基础货币发行的影响。财政部发行特别国债有两种方式．一是间接向中央银行发行,二是直接向市场发行。本文还研究了这两种发行方式对货币供给的影响机制及对中央银行货币政策操作的指导意义。本文进一步分析了独立投资公司购买外汇对基础货币的影响。最后．本文给出了主要结论。     

COMMERCIAL BANK RISK: MARKET,INTEREST RATE,AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE

Because of recent structural changes in the balance sheets of banks, regulatory changes in the risk-based capital requirements, and the recent adoption of mark-to-market accounting changes, interest rate risk remains an important issue for commercial banks and an important regulatory concern. Market, interest rate, and foreign exchange risk are estimated for a sample of commercial banks using ordinary least squares from 1986 to 1991. Consistent with earlier studies, the estimated coefficients continue to be unstable. We find that interest rate risk decreases and foreign exchange risk increases. Moreover, the results differ depending on practices of the bank (money center, superregional, or regional). We find evidence consistent with earlier studies that theorize foreign exchange risk is explained by unhedged foreign loan exposure.     

人民币汇率波动背景下的“钟摆效应”探析

2012年以来,人民币对美元汇率继续呈现双向波动趋势,升值和贬值预期交替出现。企业等市场主体根据人民币汇率预期变动,灵活调整外币资产负债配置结构,使财务运作呈现较为明显的“钟摆效应”。“钟摆效应”的出现,反映了国内市场主体对汇率风险意识的增强,也影响到外汇资产在央行和市场主体间配置的变动,增加跨境资金流动的波动性。为更好地适应国内市场主体外币资产配置需求的变化,文章提出相关政策建议。     

Behind the scenes of abandoning a fixed exchange rate regime

This paper explores the process of abandoning a fixed exchange rate regime during sudden stops in a small open economy. The Bank of Korea’s exchange rate policy reports during the East Asian crisis suggest that its fixed exchange rate regime was forced to collapse due to the depletion of usable foreign reserves, which resulted from the credit policy of the Korean central bank to support domestic banks in need of foreign currency liquidity. To capture the Korean crisis experience, I build a quantitative small open economy model in which, in response to the country risk premium shock, the foreign-currency credit policy of a central bank under fixed regime leads to the exhaustion of international reserves and consequent exchange rate regime shift. This model does well at replicating the observed contraction in Korean aggregate variables.     

The size of banking crises in credible fixed exchange rate regimes

Since monetary policy is constrained in fixed exchange rate regimes, we should observe fewer banking crises due to moral hazard in countries with credible currency pegs. However, three countries with seemingly credible pegs in the nineteen-eighties and -nineties, namely China, Hong Kong and Argentina, still suffered crises in their domestic banking sectors. The present note illustrates that bank incentives to take on excess risk still exist in countries with currency peg credibility and that the size of that risk exposure (and thus the potential for crisis) may be positively related to the level of central bank foreign exchange reserves.     

论外汇储备注资国有商业银行对人民币升值压力的影响

目前国内学者对于外汇储备注资国有商业银行能否缓解人民币升值压力存在分歧.笔者认为其关键在于这部分外汇资本金能否再次进入外汇市场,形成美元超额供给.本文讨论了国家不限制和限制这450亿美元资本金进入外汇市场两种情况下外汇储备注资对人民币升值压力的影响,通过分析得出结论:外汇储备注资国有商业银行不仅不会缓解反而会加剧人民币升值压力.在人民币升值问题非常敏感的今天,金融当局应采取相应措施,缓解人民币升值压力.