经济新常态下出口增长动力机制研究——基于企业偏年度效应的分析

本文利用中国海关月度数据,从偏年度效应角度考察企业出口增长之谜。研究认为,新出口企业的低出口规模和高速增长主要源于出口统计的偏误。在上述研究基础上,文章进一步从出口年限与出口规模两个方面探究出口企业增长的动力。结论表明:新进入出口市场的企业,出口增长动力更强;出口规模与出口增长率之间呈倒U型关系,即存在企业的最优出口规模,但样本区间内98%以上的出口企业未达到这一最优规模,因此现阶段出口规模的扩大有利于企业的长期增长;企业出口的初始规模过大会抑制企业的出口增长。为了验证模型的稳健性,分别控制企业短期冲击和对企业进行聚类分析,结果均支持了文章的主要结论。     

补贴对中国企业出口模式的影响:数量还是价格?

本文重点分析补贴对企业出口模式的影响,特别关注数量和价格。结论发现:补贴提升了中国企业出口总量和数量,降低了出口价格,促成了"低价竞争、数量取胜"的出口模式;补贴对企业出口的促进作用在近年并不稳健显著,在不同模型中促进作用程度不同,对国有企业、私营企业、外资企业的影响方向和影响程度也存在显著差异,因此应审慎保守地看待补贴的出口促进作用。将政策推动转变为企业内生驱动、构建出口可持续增长的微观基础是中国对外贸易发展的重要课题。     

企业生产率、经济政策不确定性与中国上市服务企业出口

服务贸易发展水平是衡量一国经济实力的标志之一,发展服务出口是提高国内外市场竞争力的必然选择。本文以异质性企业贸易理论为基础,利用2007-2017年中国上市服务企业数据,采用Heckman模型研究了企业生产率、经济政策不确定性对服务企业出口选择和出口规模的影响。研究发现:企业生产率对企业出口选择及出口企业的出口规模具有显著正向影响;经济政策不确定性对企业出口选择无显著影响,而对出口企业的出口规模具有显著正影响,而且经济政策不确定性对不同所有制企业的出口选择行为和出口规模的影响具有差异性。该研究拓展并丰富了中国服务企业出口方面的研究,对服务企业出口以及政府部门的决策具有启示性意义。     

出口、异质性与企业生产率——来自中国企业层面的证据

文章基于自我选择效应和出口中学效应假说,利用中国企业面板数据,从超越对数生产函数出发,纳入出口状态变量,分别采用固定效应估计、系统广义矩估计和Olley-Pakes半参数估计法克服潜在的同步性偏差和选择偏差问题,在从微观角度充分控制企业异质性的背景下,深入考察出口行为与我国企业生产率之间的作用机理。研究发现,出口企业的生产率相对非出口企业高出20%-30%左右,我国出口贸易存在显著的出口中学效应;而对自我选择效应的检验结果警示,本土企业以低劳动力成本而非高生产率作为出口竞争优势切入全球价值链低端,转变贸易增长方式是保证中国开放经济长期可持续增长的重要保障。     

创新与出口间因果关系分析——基于中国高技术产业企业数据的实证研究

使用1999—2009年我国18万家规模以上高技术产业微观企业数据,采用倾向得分匹配方法控制内生性问题,分析了企业创新与出口之间的因果关系。以产品创新衡量企业创新的估计结果表明,企业创新与出口间存在明显的因果关系:企业创新使其出口概率平均增加14%以上,企业出口使企业创新概率平均提升超过8%,从创新到出口、从出口到创新的因果关系方向均显著。区分出口强度和企业类型的估计结果显示:这种因果关系随着出口强度的增大而减弱;内资企业的创新对其出口的影响要大于外资企业;外资企业的出口对其创新的影响要大于内资企业。以研发衡量企业创新后也得到了类似结果。     

农机购置补贴如何影响农业全要素生产率？

提高全要素生产率（TFP）是促进中国农业高质量发展,建设中国式现代化农业强国的重要手段,那么与此契合的农机购置补贴政策如何影响农业TFP？目前对于这方面的研究较少。文章基于全国农村固定观察点2007-2017年农户数据,运用面板随机前沿模型进行了实证分析。研究发现：（1）农机购置补贴对农业TFP具有显著正向影响,而对农业TFP增长率没有明显作用；（2）补贴效果在规模农户、平原地区及土地细碎化程度较轻的地区中更为显著；（3）机制检验表明,农机购置补贴增加了农户的农机社会化服务可得性和规模,扩大了政策受益面,起到了提质增效的作用,但会受到交易费用的制约；（4）进一步对TFP增长率进行分解后发现,农机购置补贴对配置效率和规模效率的提升不足是导致其对农业TFP增长率影响不显著的重要原因。文章结论为如何提高农业补贴效果以实现农业高质量发展和建设中国式现代化农业强国提供了重要的理论依据。     

外资准入政策和外商直接投资的流入——一个准自然实验的证据

本文利用我国颁行的《外商投资产业指导目录》度量中国外资准入政策变化,以探究政府外资准入政策变化如何影响外商直接投资。利用2002年外商投资准入政策变化,结合1998—2006年间的中国工业企业数据,估计了政府外资准入政策的变化对外商直接投资的影响。我们发现,在2002年之后外资进入受到鼓励的行业外商投资企业数目年均增长率比2002年之前高出25.29%,其中约10.42—16.45个百分点的增长率来源于政府的外商投资准入政策变化的作用。这一结果表明,我国政府对外资采取的开放政策有效地推动了我国外商直接投资的增长。     

出口市场规模、初始生产率与中国工业企业技术创新

基于贸易竞争效应理论,主要采用中国工企数据库、中国企业专利数据库、中国专利全文数据库（知网版）、中国海关数据库和CEPII-BACI数据库的2002—2013年匹配合并数据,考察一般贸易企业出口市场规模的初始生产率调节机制对技术创新数量及质量的影响、出口市场规模增长率影响技术创新数量与质量增长率的时间点选择。结果发现：总体而言,只有当企业初始生产率超过临界值水平时,出口市场规模对技术创新数量与质量的积极影响才能显现;从结构上看,出口市场规模对技术创新数量与质量影响均为正的企业主要集中在化学原料和化学制品制造业,医药制造业,通用设备制造业,电气机械和器材制造业,计算机、通信和其他电气设备制造业;从时间点看,一般贸易企业的技术创新数量与质量的增长分别发生在出口市场规模增长后的第二年和第三年。因此,地方政府应改善营商环境,为出口企业减税降费;出口企业应提高生产率,降低成本,扩大出口市场规模,缩短创新决策时间,以发挥出口市场规模对创新数量与质量的积极作用。     

汇率制度、要素错配与中国企业出口绩效

基于新新贸易理论,本文分析了汇率制度与要素错配对我国企业出口绩效的影响。本文的研究发现,固定汇率制度扩大了企业出口规模,降低了企业出口产品质量。要素错配是汇率制度影响企业出口绩效的重要传导机制,劳动要素错配抑制了固定汇率制度对企业出口规模的促进作用,整体及资本要素错配加剧了固定汇率制度对出口产品质量的抑制作用。我国要素错配普遍存在和固定汇率制度的双重背景导致我国企业出口陷入"低质高量"模式。考虑异质性因素和稳健性检验后,本文的研究结论依旧成立,由此可以引申出若干打破"低端锁定"困局的政策建议。     

企业退出出口市场行为与企业的经营表现——基于倾向评分匹配的经验分析

文章运用倾向评分匹配方法分析了企业退出出口市场行为对其经营表现的影响。研究结果表明,经营表现越差的出口企业退出出口市场的概率越大;企业退出出口市场行为对企业经营表现的影响主要体现在影响就业增长和产出增长方面,而对劳动生产率的影响总体不显著。具体表现为,企业退出出口市场会对其就业增长和产出增长产生持续的显著负向作用,这说明我国国内需求尚不足以使企业退出出口市场后继续保持退出前的就业增长率和产出增长率。因此,在提倡出口转内销的同时需注重提高出口企业在国际市场竞争中的存活率。     

Heterogeneous firms,corporate taxes and export behavior: A firm-level investigation for Italy

This paper analyses the effect of home corporate taxes on a firm’s decision to expand the scale of its activity through exports using a rich dataset on Italian firms. Starting out from the observation that firms’ export activity vary greatly among them and tend to be systematically related to firm’s characteristics, we relate differences in firms’ export choices to firm level incidence of corporate taxes. Our results suggest that (i) corporate taxes matter at both the extensive and the intensive margin and (ii) higher corporate taxes may increase the probability of new firms’ entry in the foreign market while they decrease the export intensity of incumbent exporters.     

Is Corporate Environmentalism Good for Domestic Welfare?

Many private firms voluntarily care about the environment and declare that their products and production processes are environmentally friendly. This paper shows that corporate environmentalism may reduce the effectiveness of government policies. A simple third‐market trade model with strategic environmental and trade policy is employed, in which an environmentally conscious domestic firm competes with a profit‐maximizing foreign firm. It is shown that even if emission taxes and export subsidies are both available, corporate environmentalism may reduce domestic welfare when pollution is transboundary. In the realistic situation where export subsidies are prohibited, welfare may fall even if pollution is local.     

International trade agreements, environmental policy, and relocation of production

This paper studies the influence of free trade agreements on national environmental policies and location strategies of polluting firms. It is shown that banning export subsidies makes relocation of production more attractive for firms. When export subsidies are banned relocation is profitable because: (1) the rival firm reduces output due to more stringent emission regulation in the host country of the investment and (2) relocation leads to lower emission tax rate in the original home country of the investing firm. When export subsidies are used, the first effect is absent because the host government is able to use the export subsidy to compensate the negative effect of more stringent emission taxation on domestic shareholders.     

An Empirical Evaluation of The Effects of R&D Subsidies

R&D subsidies are a common tool of technology policy, but little is known about the effects they have on the behavior of firms. This paper presents evidence on the effects that R&D subsidies have on the R&D effort of recipients, and on the probability that a firm will participate in a program granting R&D subsidies. The empirical model consists of a system of equations: a participation equation; and an R&D effort equation. Endogeneity of public funding is controlled for. Estimates are obtained with a cross-section sample of Spanish firms. The main findings are that: 1) small firms are more likely to obtain a subsidy than large firms, probably reflecting one of the public agency's goals; 2) overall, public funding induces more private effort, but for some firms (30% of participants) full crowding out effects cannot be ruled out, and 3) firm size remains related to effort, whether or not a firm gets public funding.     

Can Production Subsidies Explain China's Export Performance? Evidence from Firm‐level Data*

This paper analyses the relationship between production subsidies and firms’ export performance using a very comprehensive and recent firm‐level database and controlling for the endogeneity of subsidies. It documents robust evidence that production subsidies stimulate export activity at the intensive margin, although this effect is conditional on firm characteristics. In particular, the positive relationship between subsidies and the intensive margin of exports is strongest among profit‐making firms, firms in capital‐intensive industries, and those located in non‐coastal regions. Compared to firm characteristics, the extent of heterogeneity across ownership structure (SOEs, collectives, and privately owned firms) proves to be relatively less important.     

政府科技资助对谁更有效?--基于企业规模与所有制三维交互的研究

何种企业能更有效地利用政府科技资助提升创新水平？文章结合资源基础理论、委托代理理论和信号传递理论,运用上海张江高科技园区2382家企业2006—2009年共计6718条非平衡面板数据,研究企业规模和所有制性质在政府科技资助影响企业创新过程中的三维调节机制。研究结果表明：(1)在应用倾向值匹配法纠正政府资助选择偏差的基础上,政府资助对企业创新具有显著的促进作用;(2)企业规模能够影响政府资助对企业创新的“杠杆效应”的发挥程度,规模越大,资助对企业创新水平的正向激励越强;(3)政府资助对不同所有制性质企业的作用存在差异,相比国有企业,非国有性质的企业能更好地利用政府资助提升创新水平;(4)企业规模的调节作用还取决于企业的所有制性质,相比之下,政府资助对非国有企业的创新激励作用会随着企业规模的增加而不断增强。     

International duopoly with overseas production and strategic trade policies

This paper examines the strategic export policies in a reciprocal market model of an international Cournot duopoly where two firms in domestic and foreign countries reciprocally supply their products to other countries through overseas production as well as export. It also considers the fact that the firms must incur export costs in addition to production costs. Thus, this paper shows, among others, that the effects of export policies on firms' output and export choices do not depend on the slopes of firms' reaction curves. It is also shown that firms' total outputs are independent of the export policies, and the optimal domestic and foreign export subsidies are zero (laissez-faire).     

China's export tax rebate and the duration of firm export spells

Using a survival analysis technique, this paper investigates the impact of the export tax rebate (ETR) on duration of the firm, country/destination, and product (F–C–P)‐level export spells in China. Empirical analysis of a large dataset that covers the 2001 to 2013 period shows that the effect of ETR on duration of export spells of Chinese firms is large and statistically significant. A 1 percentage point increase in ETR rate increases the duration rate of F–C–P relationships by 23.2%. Furthermore, compared with the high‐tech firms, low‐tech and middle‐tech firms experience a larger increase in the duration of export spells in response to increase in China's ETR. Firm ownership‐based analysis shows that an increase in ETR leads to a larger increase in export spells of privately owned firms than the export spells of state‐ and foreign‐owned firms. These findings have important policy implications for the design and implementation of China's ETR policy.     

Commercial Policy and Foreign Ownership

Foreign multinationals often not only export but also control local firms through FDI. This paper examines the various effects of trade and industrial policies when exports and FDI coexist. We focus on the case in which a foreign firm has full control of a local firm through partial ownership. Cross‐border ownership on the basis of both financial interests and corporate control leads to horizontal market linkages through which tariffs and production subsidies may harm locally owned firms but benefit the foreign firm. Foreign ownership regulation benefits locally owned firms. These results could have strong policy implications for developing countries that attract an increasing share of world FDI.